According to the 2008 Report on the Home Entertainment Industry issued by the Entertainment Merchants Association, it is estimated that Blu-ray sales will exceed those of standard-definition DVDs to the tune of $9.5 billion by the year 2012.
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It all depends on the penetration of HDTV, and you can never go back from HD to SD.
Looking at the present day numbers, that's a hard pill to swallow.
But imagining a future market where the majority of TVs owned are hi-def and Blu-rays are sold at reasonable prices... then it's a retardedly obvious statement.
I think once the price of players and movies start to come down then adoption will start to increase quickly. Paying $400+ for a player and around $10+ for a new release over a dvd is to much for the majority of people. In case people are confused i am in Canada so there are no sweet amazon.com deals for us, we get the two blu-ray movies for $50 :-(. Once sony stop keeping the price inflated and hand out licenses to chinese manufactures then prices will fall with rising competition. The lack of competition right now is bad for us consumers.