Konami's Q1 earnings report released. MGS4 shipped 3.94m as of June 30, 2008

Superfragilistic - 496 days 17 hours ago

Totally agree and MGS4 deserves all the sales it gets, but you do realise they aren't retail sales above don't you?

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gaffyh - 496 days 16 hours ago

Just thought I'd say that VGChartz is estimating sales of 2.69m sales on this game. Over 1 million less than what Konami stated lol, I guess that shows how crap VGChartz is.

http://vgchartz.com/games/g...

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 16 hours ago

As cahill points out they're shipped numbers and hence incomparable to VGChartz estimated retail sales.

But yes the VGChartz numbers are low and one would think the real retail figure is above 3m.

As for your statement:

"Over 1 million less than what Konami stated lol, I guess that shows how crap VGChartz is."

All it really shows is your failure to understand simple financial terminology. Shipped vs Retail sales are very different beasts. Read my explanation down lower and you might understand VGChartz better. ;)

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gaffyh - 496 days 16 hours ago

@superfragilistic - I know the difference between shipped and retail, I only posted those numbers because they were far too low for retail numbers if 3.94m copies of the game have been shipped.

It might help if you had a bit of common sense, instead of patronising everyone just because you don't understand what they posted.

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orakga - 496 days 16 hours ago

Actually, the numbers make perfect sense (4 mill shipped vs. 3 mill sold-through) based on the average industry returns rate AND considering the time-lag between shipment and sales.

Most entertainment-based industries maintain a return reserve of 20% (I hope you're familiar with this term). So, based on Konami's numbers, one can expect that 3.2 million units will EVENTUALLY sell-through, and that the rest will either come back to Konami as unsold products, or just rot on the shelves.

Note that I said "will EVENTUALLY sell 3.2 million units". So VGChartz' estimate is actually quite accurate.

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 15 hours ago

Well you better get your nose checked out! lol

Just because I hold an opinion about financial estimates that happens to be different to yours, does not colour me that which you claim. In fact it has nothing to do with the awesome MGS4 and all to do with finance, so if you want to edit your post and call me a finance fanboy that's fine by me! ;)

At least I went to the effort of explaining my position as opposed to your primal name calling! lol

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solidt12 - 496 days 15 hours ago

I am so glad that this game is doing great. I love the whole MGS series. Just give us trophies now so we can play though the game again and again.

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eagle21 - 496 days 15 hours ago

NPD doesn't report bundles sold as software sold. Anita Frazier just stated this in her NPD report for June. She estimated USA/CANADA MGS4 game sold well over 1 million including bundles.

On a side note, it only takes 10 weeks selling (give or take) 100k worldwide per week = 1,000,000. Couple that with Christmas Nov./Dec. easily another 1,000,000 worldwide. MGS4 will be at 6 million easy by years end.

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B-Rein - 496 days 15 hours ago

Yep it toattaly deservas grate sales, (never played the other mgs games this is my first mgs game ive played) MGS4 is jus one of the best game si ever played and one of the best gaming experiances i ever had, god i cant belive some ps3 owners still dont have this game, lol you are truly missin out on summin that big

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shazam - 496 days 15 hours ago

no i mean all of your posts everywhere in all stories on this site.

your posts are either damage control like in the john carmack lack of disk space article or they are trying to spin things so that the good ps3 news seems less significant.

you have got to be one of the biggest closet fanboys on this site. at least POGins and thoughNAME and MART and Silogon are upfront and in your face about their love for microsoft.

you try to hide it even though its so easy to see. imo you are worse than those stated above.

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Shane Kim - 496 days 14 hours ago

B-Rain, if you have a PS2 or a 80/60GB PS3 get MGS 1-3. They are soooo good.

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 14 hours ago

Well in that case forget your nose and get your eyes checked... or maybe take off those rose tinted glasses. lol

It's all relative mate. You're entitled to your opinion, as I am to mine, but I can assure you I'm not what you assert, and indeed go back to the Carmack article and instead of colouring a statement as "damage control", watch the interview and then look at the sh!t I give MS for their DVD licensing and compression. ;)

I'm impartial to branding and enjoy not only the current consoles, but many older ones (Gamecube, PS2 and N64 in particular). The only thing I despise are that which you name, whether its an MS PoG or a Sony DarkSniper, they've destroyed large parts of this otherwise useful site. Feel free to check my bio, but enough with name calling. :)

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DaTruth - 496 days 12 hours ago

Ya, I hate fanboys, but Darksniper and Zhuk made me Lmao everyday. Just something about that firstperson, commercial sound to their comments.

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Skadoosh - 496 days 11 hours ago

3.94 million shipped as of JUNE! Since we have about 5 weeks since than and Europe is at 700k and Asian is at 300k and Bangladesh is at 200k than that equals to...

...MGS4 hitting 14 MILLION SOLD! No doubt about that.

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Truplaya - 496 days 17 hours ago

if you hate fake numbers being posted why are you guessing MGS4 sales?

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 17 hours ago

They're shipped figures. So any comparison between such and estimated retail sales such as those by VGChartz and NPD is useless.

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 16 hours ago

You accuse VGChartz of fake numbers and yet proceed to pull such straight out of your behind! lol

You clearly don't understand what financial estimates are, but in layman terms they are estimates based on financial models and algorithms, of which a survey sample of retail sales is a required variable. Eg Sales = A x B x sample x D... etc

The difference between VGChartz and NPD, and the reason VGChartz tends to be less accurate is because it only uses a survey sample of 5% of North American retailers as opposed to NPD's 60% sample. But don't be confused to think NPD is fact, it's not. Rather it's a far better estimation of retail sales in North America by virtue of it's far better sample size.

The other reason VGChartz tends to be further off with projections is because it places heavier emphasis on other variables such as Google searches, web traffic, and just like yourself, shipping data! Given the bias of its model towards Internet data, it tends to weigh whichever way the wind is blowing. And given the 360's larger install base in the richest source of Internet traffic (North America), it's reasonable to assume that the model unfairly inflates 360 sales, and deflates PS3 sales as a result.

On a final note, whilst projections are one thing, historical data is another. And what you'll find is that whilst VGChartz have wild projections, their historical estimations are very similar to NPD's. The reason? Because their historical model includes NPD's data. Eg Sales = A x B x VG sample x NPD estimates x E... etc

I suggest next time you disagree with someone, you use your intellect rather than a crude mouth. ;)

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orakga - 496 days 15 hours ago

I think you guys don't understand how companies ship their products, or how the sales process works. You CANNOT assume that MGS4 shipped 1.5 million more units (or even just 1 million) in July UNLESS MGS4 was sold out everywhere (and it wasn't).

Publishers SHIP to distributors. They ship enough to cover about 60-90 days worth of sales (based on what they together estimate will sell through). And unless that stock gets depleted (or nearly depleted), the distributor DOES NOT BUY MORE.

I don't understand why some of your guys think Super is an XBox fanboy when his message is purely about the accuracy (AND non-accuracy therein) of VGChartz data, and how those numbers relate to the NPD and Konami numbers.

These numbers ALL make sense, and if you accuse VGChartz' data being off the mark purely based on Konami's shipment numbers, you are using the wrong rationale to reach a conclusion (which may or may not be true, mind you).

The way I see it, NPD's numbers only represent 60% of the US retail market, which is only about 40% of all US sales. Which, is actually only about 20% of global sales. Yes, VGChartz' numbers are not perfect (and nobody's is; please realize this), but at least they don't confine their reference data to one market and one datapoint like NPD.

I'm not defending VGChartz here. I'm simply fighting against people drawing conclusions with flawed logic (caused by ... sorry guys... ignorance to what these numbers actually mean).

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 15 hours ago

It's alright mate. Clearly none of these people make a living out of such data, as I do, Wall Street does and I suspect yourself. Your understanding of return reserve and the relationship between publishers and distributors are sound. Bubbles for the explanations. :)

It also turns out the title is incorrect and that MGS4 did not ship 3.94m copies, but rather the "Metal Gear" series did as indicated by Konami's own financial tables in the linked document. That would include the re-release of other MGS titles, MGS4 and the PSP title. As Konami noted "Metal Gear Solid 4 Guns of The Patriots shipped over 3 million units worldwide". As a result ALL the numbers make even more sense and correlate well. :)

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orakga - 496 days 14 hours ago

Used work for an Anime publisher in NY, and now I work for a Videogame publisher on the West Coast; the two industries are practically indentical from a business perspective, actually. So, yeah... I'm not too close to Wall Street, and not too close to retail either. And yes, I "get paid" to deal with numbers, and I don't need to speculate when it comes to these things; the facts stare right at my face on a daily basis.

I write mostly to make sure misinformation doesn't spread too far. Because it's scary how far people will take one piece of news and turn it into a something else, all the while accusing others of being fanboys, simply for correcting them... but I guess you know the drill already.

Kudos to you though. I don't know how someone can keep a Wall Street job and find enough time to play videogames; my friends surely can't.

lol /threadhijack

edit: wait I misread your post. you didn't actually mean you work on Wall Street, in which case I'm happy for you. lol

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Superfragilistic - 496 days 16 hours ago

I agree MGS4 has long legs, but NPD associate SimExchange is tracking lifetime sales at 4.64m with a monthly high at 5.21m.

http://www.thesimexchange.c...

Personally I think 8m is beyond reach and 5-6m would be a tremendous success for Konami, and be consistent with all previous Metal Gear sales.

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KnaveX - 496 days 16 hours ago

Halo 3 is the most overhyped and advertised game ever, compared to the small advertisement of MGS4 well it does seem very impressive. you really think halo 3 wouldve sold that much without having a commercial every 2 minutes? Soda cans? billboards? commercials in movies? being bundled worldwide?

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orakga - 496 days 15 hours ago

1) Halo 3 would NOT have sold as much without the marketing, but then again much of its revenue was absorbed by that marketing, so from a profit/ROI standpoint, you can't assume Halo 3 made more money than MGS4. It DID, however ensure an extremely large online community and that more people bought 360s, so I wouldn't necessarily say it was a bad thing. Plus I liked seeing Halo 3 trailers at the theaters. It made my pee pee tingle.

2) The current version of MGS4 will probably do around 6 mill AT BEST. Logic? MGS4's lifespan is, at the longest, until next June. And by then we should see about 25 million PS3s sold through. However, unlike like Halo 3, MGS4 is more demanding as a game, so it won't have a 50% conversion rate like Halo 3 did (meaning, half the people with 360s bought Halo 3). Its conversion rate is closer to 20-25%, so by that estimate, we're looking at about 6 million units being sold.

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solidt12 - 496 days 15 hours ago

Yeah but there is a chance that this game could sell at least 6-7 million by the end of the year which would be great. It's still selling great on a week to week basis not even including bundles.

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B-Rein - 496 days 15 hours ago

lol mgs isnt ps3s biggest exclusive like halo is to 360 lol thers bigger ones coming so thats no comparison

and halo did have alot of advertisments comaperd to mgs and i mean lods Halo 3 was advertised every where and any where

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Omega4 - 496 days 16 hours ago

Im from the UK and i saw more MGS4 tv ads than i did Halo 3, but im sure its quite different in the US

Also MGS4 was bundled with the best PS3 model on the market so a lot of its sales werent intentional as the game was just a bonus to some people. The same could be said with the gunmetal grey PS3 but thats less likely since it is a metal gear design (also im not 100% sure if the game was actually bundled with it to). While Halo 3 on the other hand was just a standalone game

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Omega4 - 496 days 16 hours ago

Halo 3 wasnt bundled WW trust me, i remember loads of people complaining when MS released the Green Halo 3 console and not bundling the game with it.

Unlike Sony, MS want to make the most money they can so they made sure everyone brought the game seperatly while Sony wanted to boost potentially low sales by bundling it with their best SKU

@ Cahills additional added bullsh*t

Thats just a console fool not a console bundled with a game....are you seriously that blind. And why report me for telling the truth. MGS4 had an offical bundle Halo 3 did not end of story!

Oh and one more thing HOW DID YOU GET 3 AGREES FOR LYING!!!

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DaKid - 496 days 16 hours ago

and come back down. I have the halo edition 360, and I don't remember it coming with the game. if it did I am going to be pissed because I wasted $60 and got it twice. ;)

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alakazzam - 496 days 16 hours ago

@ omega. i live in the uk and i never saw one MGS4 add.

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Nemo88 - 496 days 16 hours ago

Fact that MS wants to make money so bad is why they made 360 with noisy dvd drive, fans, cheapo plastic case, overheating failures, an actual disc tray. It might have been better if they actually cared about quality hardware. But hey it plays gears and its cheap right?!

All companies want to make money its just that some are a little bit committed to their rep/customers and *how* they make money, rather than charge you for everything and anything conceivable ie. avatar hairstyles and gamerpics, hd's etc. etc.

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SabreMan - 496 days 12 hours ago

I am from the UK and i'm another one who has never seen a MGS4 advert on tv, i witnessed plenty of Halo3 adverts last year mind you.
You are right about one thing the Limited Edition Halo3 360 didn't come with a copy of the game that you got half price(£19.99)if you bought the limited edition console.
However nearly every 360 bundle included Halo3 and did so for several months so i'm not sure why you are commenting on the MGS4 bundles making out they account for the vast majority of sales, saying if Sony didn't bundle the game with the ps3 it would only see small sales in blinkered,ignorant and plain stupid.

MGS4 deserves all the sales it's getting as it's one of the best console games of recent years to put it in a nutshell it's "stunning" and has raised the bar much like Unchartered did last year.

A job well done i think and for the record i own Halo3 and MGS4

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DaKid - 496 days 16 hours ago

And I might weigh more!

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orakga - 496 days 15 hours ago

And this is something I touched on before.
The term "install base" is very misleading.

They only represent the number of units sold to consumers, and not actually the number of people actually using the system. It would be best if we could measure the "active (simultaneous) user base" for a console, but that is just impossible at this point. (maybe 3-5 years from now we'll see something; mostly based on online activity)

Basically, we all know that there are about 120 million (140mil? I lost track) PS2's in the market. But how many people do you know that still use their PS2s?

I personally stopped using my PS2 years before MGS3 and GoW came out, but I had bought 3 PS3s by that point (no, none of them broke; I just had more than one for networking and for different regions). So yeah, the conversion rate is really hard to measure, especially when the console is that old...

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solidt12 - 496 days 10 hours ago

Either way you look at it Shipped is sold. Shipped means that the store ordered it or it was pre-ordered. It will sell and the store will re-order. :)

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chaosatom - 496 days 15 hours ago

He was saying that MGS4 was selling poorly after the 3 week or something. LOL.

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Sir_Ken_Kutaragi - 496 days 15 hours ago

MGS4 ONLY ON AND ONLY POSSIBLE ON THE...
.____....____....____
|.......|...|................ .|
|____|...|____....____|
|...................|........ .|
|............____|...____| ;)

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B-Rein - 496 days 15 hours ago

yes ken ONLY on ps3 it has even been confirmed in e3 08 that its ONLY POSSIBLE ON PS3
MGS4 FTW one of teh best games i ever played

lol funny how xbots want this games, when any little rumors come on and say "it gonna be on 360" they start to love the game and want it like crazy and try their best to get it on 360 but when the confirmation comes and says "its only on ps3 sorry" they satart sayin the game is crap and say "owh i dont want no MOVIE on my 360" hahah assoles they really do like the game and want it JELOUSE!!!! hahah

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Sir_Ken_Kutaragi - 496 days 13 hours ago

Yeah the xBot Lemmings have been searching the whole internet for a bad MGS4 Reveiw, but can't find one!!! ;-D

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harry190 - 496 days 16 hours ago

You fail.

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Drekken - 496 days 16 hours ago

As long as they dont turn out like you, I think the world is safe.

Hey fork, I heard if you stick a screwdriver in a plug socket you will glow... you should try it.

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harry190 - 496 days 15 hours ago

a brain Fork.

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Obama - 496 days 15 hours ago

Chinese cartoons? rofl. I swear, America needs a better education system otherwise there will always be dumb racist bots like yankeespawn here.

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lojtis - 496 days 15 hours ago

You really should consider changing your avatar.

And/Or leave this site forever.

Go play with your toys or something !

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Snukadaman - 496 days 13 hours ago

the only people that do listen to you are the blind droids....f*ck those people. and by the way...shipped isnt sold to consumers..thats why they are not counted towards vgchartz....because they are sitting on shelves...

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eagle21 - 496 days 16 hours ago

This game will easily sell 6 million by December 31, 2008.

POG: "MGS4 will maybe sell 3-4 million, it's a niche title".... LMAO

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juuken - 496 days 15 hours ago

Lol...do I hear someone crying there?
Oh, right, it's just PoG.

GOTY, go cry some more.

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silverchode - 496 days 15 hours ago

http://img175.imageshack.us...

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Shane Kim - 496 days 15 hours ago

hahahah silverchode that pic was priceless :D

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eagle21 - 496 days 15 hours ago

I don't know who shmee is. But you are beyond delusional. At least you can agree that a game only has to sell:

100k worldwide a week for ten weeks = 1,000,000. Then you have Christmas where this game will easily sell 1,000,000 worldwide from Nov/Dec. alone. Just wake up. :)

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silverchode - 496 days 15 hours ago

dont you have multiple accounts also?

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juuken - 496 days 15 hours ago

Lol, like you don't have multiple accounts.
PoG/Mart.

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eagle21 - 496 days 15 hours ago

Can't this site find out who has multiple accounts by IP address? Let's all vote to N4g finding out who has multiple accounts. It's time for this bullcrap to end.

POG has been called the Mart and many other names. Who the fuc$ is shmee? You loser.... :)

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San anto - 496 days 6 hours ago

shipped 3mil in just over 2 weeks of release

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