Industry turmoil worst since '80s crash, says Bleszinski

Ex-Epic designer ponders a downloadable-only future with Nintendo out of the hardware race

[donniebaseball]

Cliffy's a smart man.

[InMyOpinion]

Not on N4G. Too much involvement with the "enemy" to be trusted here lol.

[medziarz]

:D With the Enemy Crab People

[otherZinc]

Yes, Ciff is a genius! I hope he gets back in gaming soon.

However, this isn't the time to do download only as a very large percentage of the console base isn't online.

[Gamer-Z]

I think out of all 3 or 4 if you count steam box, Sony's PS4 will be the most accepting of such an open model. As what i have experienced with MS systems (360/windows8) the next Xbox will be going for more of a closed ecosystem so that MS has more control over its consumers & developers.

[Godmars290]

And you likely contributed to it. Talking up UE3 as the go-to graphics engine even when the damn thing didn't work.

[Knight_Crawler]

What are you talking about, worked fine on my 360 games.

[NukaCola]

Yeah, the engine is old but look at what Rocksteady and Bioware did...

PS3 running a phenomenal version of UE3 in an open world settings like that. It just takes a good developer.

And Mass Effect runs great on PS3 and looks really good too.

[givemeshelter]

UE3 might have had early issues on the PS3 platform but it was far from not working in general on all the others. It had its caveats but it was still one of the most flexible game engine this generation.
If it did not work as you claim, then why was it the most used game engine this generation?

[Perjoss]

If it didn't work I wonder why so many dev studios decided to go with it.

[Godmars290]

Because it was cheaper than making their own.

And still there were games like Too Human, who's devs blamed difficulty of working with it for why the games turned out as they did.

Nevermind that flaws with it, like clipping, falling through the landscape, have become generally accepted.

[givemeshelter]

@Goldmars290

The developers behind Too Human had more issues going on then just the UE3 engine. They had a laundry list of issues that had nothing to do with the UE3 engine.
They went through numerous engine changes, programming issues and in no way was it the fault of the UE3 engine.
Many game engines have issues such as clipping and falling through floors, however it's up to those developers to correct those issues before launch.
How many game custom engines had these issues also? Numerous...
Running games like Mass Effect, Batman and countless others, I have not experienced this type of issue...When these issues happen you can put the blame squarely on the developer for not vetting the engine before said product goes gold.
You're reasoning simply does not fit the vast majority of the industry regarding the UE3 game engine. When used properly it's solid, flexible and impressive. If not? It's like all other game engines licensed out. Buggy if programmed and not vetted...

[Godmars290]

"Running games like Mass Effect, Batman and countless others, I have not experienced this type of issue."

I have. My first, and likely only, Platinum trophy was because of a glitch in Arkham Asylum. And I've fallen through the floor in Arkham City. Also had some major clipping issues, a system crash, in ME2.

And aren't Skyrim, COD and Fallout as buggy as they are popular? Use UE3?

[Mainsqueeze]

No Skyrim Fallout and COD all use their own engines.

[SolDojo]

None of Skyrim, COD, or Fallout was made in UE3.

COD uses similar code, but as far as Fallout and Skyrim, they are made using Gamebryo, as was Oblivion and New Vegas.

Bethesda doesn't even have a license to use UE 3 or 4 at all, in my understanding.

[majiebeast]

I think he is right.

[givemeshelter]

He is right. If you lived through the two console/video game crashes during the 1980's you will witness very similar events transpiring just with different twists.
The shift from "traditional" gaming is happening as we speak and mobile and digital Distribution and Cloud gaming will soon take over. Just look at the data showing this. It's only a matter of time.
It's coming regardless if we like it or not.

@nirwanda

This has nothing really to do with that. This is about consumer spending habits and where they are putting their money and will put their money in the near future in regards to video games whether it's mobile, PC or console gaming.
These trends almost MIMIC what happened in the 1980's. Gaming will always be with us, however it's not going to look the same as it is now in the coming years.
Just look at all the data and trends that is backing this.
Change is in the air and Microsoft and Sony know this and make no mistake, they are planning accordingly for this change.

[nirwanda]

I read this as a transitional piece rather than an ecconomical one, I'm 35 and ive own alot of consoles and computers from a colovision to a xbox 360 and everything inbetween.
And everytime a gen change happens you see the people that push tech advancing and the people who don't evolve get left behind.
A good example is square, once pushed tech and once the ps3/360 came they were caught out still making ps2 stuff.
And i read so many devs making their 2nd game on the (insert console here) saying we learn so much making our first game.

[nirwanda]

He's only partly right, the people who invest alot early on in new gen reaper the benefits later on by learning the console inners properly.
Hanging back and waiting to see what happens means you have to start from scratch so you end up being behind.

[kevnb]

thats not so much the way it works. Its much more than just hardware involved.

[nirwanda]

Yes your right there is much more than that but with something new like the cell or what ms is doing with its GPU compression and move engines hands on experience with it count for alot, games take 1-2 years to make and a console gen lasts 5-7 before the next comes along.
Most devs learn stuff in there first game they could put in because of time constaints

[wishingW3L]

3DS is selling like hotcakes so I highly doubt that Nintendo could ever go down with franchises as huge as Mario and Pokemon around the world. And then we have Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest exclusive to Nintendo platforms in Japan.

[SamPao]

He never said anything about nintendo going out of business.
just going Software only.

[Th3 Chr0nic]

so nintendo will turn into sega

[Hicken]

But with the franchises wishingW3L mentioned, it'd be pretty hard for their hardware to not maintain some type of demand.

[sephy]

To each there own..... I guess

[Genuine-User]

He's in favour of everything digital. Well what about us guys who like physical media. Who like to own what we buy.

[nirwanda]

You will probably have to get used to it like people have done with music, people still buy cd's but i can't see them ever catching up with i-tunes again.
The big problem sony and MS has is with its price of downloads, thats the only reason i don't switch.

[Genuine-User]

I don't think gaming will ever go fully digital. Unless they are planning to lose a big chunk of their consumers.

[matgrowcott]

@Genuine-User

Except they wouldn't. They'd lose a small chunk for a small amount of time and then most of them would come back when something they want comes out. How many people were going to boycott Call Of Duty/Battlefield 3/Mass Effect 3 etc... and then bought it new anyway? How many people would be able to hold their credit cards if Ground Zeroes or Versus XIII were announced to be digital only?

Nirwanda is right. A lot of people would be angry if a console manufacturer went fully digital, but it's never happened before so we've got absolutely no idea exactly how things would go down. I'll tell you what wouldn't happen: people aren't going to stop buying the games they want just because they find it slightly at odds with their views on digital distribution.

That HAS been proven time and time again, on PC.

[OccludedGamer]

@ nirwanda

Although I personally think digital is an inevitable future, I'm of the mindset that it's a very long way off.

I wouldn't say pricing is the issue, it's the fact most of the world doesn't have the internet speed to make use of it.

@ matgrowcott

I don't feel this is the same as boycotting a game. Essentially they still had access to the game, whereas this isn't the case with digital, a lot of potential customers will not have access to the internet, let alone the percentage that lack the speed necessary either.

The internet speed issues are likely to still be here in another decade so it's not as simple as just saying, people will change their minds. If I could pay for faster internet I would, but I can't even get past 4Mb where I am in the UK. Imagine how many other countries must have it even worse.

[nirwanda]

@occluded gamer

I was convinced MS would go digital only next gen with the way they marketed their music and movie downloads.

If they used a removable HDD again you could buy digital boxed games you could trade in and have removed running side by side with much cheeper downloads with the retailers costs knocked directly off the download price, that way you could choose.

[Th3 Chr0nic]

things change and ppl and things adapt. if it doesnt happen we will never evolve and move on to bigger things. deal with it and try not to turn into a allhatingchangemonster / chrotchety old man

[OccludedGamer]

I don't hate on the new, it's the matter that my internet speed would mean I would have to wait multiple days to get my game.

And considering it's going to be at least 3 years before our exchange here even gets considered for an upgrade so that's a lot of games I would miss out on purchasing.

It's a matter of seeing both sides of the coin. To ask people to deal with it is basically asking them to move house so they can play games.

[Jek_Porkins]

This is the thing as I see it.
1.The reason for the market crash was that there was no quality control of video games. Anyone could make and publish a game for the Atari 2600.

2.We might never see the success we have had in previous generations, but if the Wii U, PS4 and Xbox 720 all hit 50 million within 5 years, that is still successful.

3.Digital only cannot work for gamers right now, I have a 150 gig bandwidth cap, streaming Netflix gets me pretty close every month to that.We haven't yet seen a successful cloud based gaming service, so how come we are so quick to announce it as the next best thing?

He is a developer, or used to be, he wants more profit and less middle men, that is understandable, but it just isn't something coming in the next 5-10 years.

As for Nintendo, they are innovators and they have the most successful handheld around, they have stated in the past that if they ever stop making hardware, they are done with the software. They survived the Gamecube, the Wii U just needs some quality software, and it is ahead of where the PS3 and Xbox 360 were at the three month mark.

Totally different situation from the 1983 crash.

[MacDonagh]

It's not so clear cut. For every boom, there's an inevitable glut of product, the market goes slack, demand lowers on the face of similar product and the bubble pops.

Remember the music fad in the early 2000s? That bubble burst, but the entire industry wasn't following that particular fad. They've jumped on the multi-player shooter fad and no-one is making money from it except COD or Halo. When that bubble bursts, it's going to drag everybody else along with it.

It'll be fun to stand back and watch it all happen.

[MacDonagh]

The game industry crash is already here. Check out the various developers that currently reside in corporate landfills. Here's a list.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum...

Expect more to be put on the wall of death.

[SamPao]

and then you have tons of compays that get funded, Teams getting the double size.
Its a industry thats changing, AND THAT is great. Take an Industry that doesn't change, THAT is doomed.
A market that is able to adapt and change is out for another great time again and again

[MacDonagh]

The problem here is that the industry hasn't adapted because they've become too fat and obese to adapt to change. Don't take it from me. The numbers are all there to search out. All the big 3 have posted losses recently. Epic for instance had recently shutdown a newly-founded studio called Impossible Studios that were mostly made up of ex-Big Huge Games developers after six months. The studio behind Epic Mickey has closed down. Prospective developers who are hoping to get their ideas funded are having to rely on Kickstarter and the whims of their audience to fund their own game because they don't particularly follow the same framework as the current trends dictate. EA isn't doing too healthy these days. THQ is bankrupt.

Do you remember the RTS boom in the early-90s? How about the JRPG boom in the mid-90s or the music boom in the mid-2000s? Those bubbles popped but the industry weren't all following those trends. When the multi-player FPS boom pops, it drags everybody along with it as they seek to emulate the successes of COD or Halo in making obscene amounts of money.

[SamPao]

yet the industry keeps pumping out AAA games for the whole generation, that can't be for nothing, somebody gets payed.
And next gen looks the same, the studios and publishers still rely on them and as it seems, it works. It may be a risky business as when a game bombs, the studio goes down or like that. but it works.
from the ashes of THQ there are already studios.

[MacDonagh]

There will be a lot of pain. Games are no longer recession-proof. Sales numbers are down and the triple AAA games aren't making bank. Only the established franchises are and the rest of them are bleeding to death.

The signs are everywhere. When you see heads of industry turning tail and running away; you know something is up.

Cliff is gone. The two Bioware doctors Doctors Ray Muzyka and Greg Zeschuk are gone. Miyamoto has stepped down from head of game design to focus on smaller projects. Molyneux has done the same. When you see the higher-ups running to the lifeboats; you should be worried.

Not as if gaming will end. It will come back in a different form is all.

[stragomccloud]

How has Nintendo done anything wrong?
The Wii being cheap as it was to develop for helped insure some really talented developers like Platinum Games and Grasshopper Manufacturer didn't go under because of the high cost of HD development. The developers that have never really had high sellers were actually able to be profitable with the Wii.

[Roper316]

that is a simple answer Nintendo was made what they were by core gamers. Then they turned their back on the core gamer to target a different demographic / customer. So if they as a company wanted to turn their back on me as a core gamer in favor of someone else so be it just don't expect me to come back to you when you realize you were wrong and are starting to suffer because of your decision.

[stragomccloud]

They didn't turn their back on the core gamer. Core "gamers" turned their backs on Nintendo. Nintendo only produced a handful of casual titles, but lots of core titles.At least 5 times as many core titles as casual titles. That said, why all the complaints about opening up to the casual market? Nintendo has helped make gaming seen as a more socially accepted hobby and had gotten people to play video games that before Wii no one could have ever imagined. I say, job well done.

[kevnb]

in the console market dev costs are so high that it takes a ridiculous amount of copies sold to make money.

[FunAndGun]

Excuse me but why wouldn't ANY developer or publisher want and push for an all digital future?

An all digital future puts more power in the hands of devs and pubs and gives less control and options to the consumer.

Of course he/they want and foresee a digital future, because it will undoubtedly benefit them the most for that outcome to happen; the sooner the better in their eyes.

[matgrowcott]

The sooner the better, full stop.

Popular games are bleeding money for no reason other that the sheer number of used copies meaning Game et al can charge half of what a new copy is; retail companies have far too much power over the industry and then basically say "you don't like it, we won't sell your game;" those that WANT to go digital can't, because publishers aren't allowed to underprice themselves at retail.

The state of digital gaming now - the one that everybody seems to hate - is purely a result of having to deal with both retail and digital publication. If handled properly and if given the ability to "trade" a licence, digital gaming could be cheaper and easier than retail by a mile. That's not going to happen whilst GAME refuse to let prices drop.

The problem is: the more we resist it, the worse it's going to be in the long run. Practically all brick and mortar game shops (and some online - cya Play) are going belly up here in the UK, and the only way I see them surviving is by either charging more per unit or by only selling the games that are most likely to sell.

Do you want to push games like Ni No Kuni even further into a niche? Do you want to pay $80 a game?

I can't help but think that's the road we're on.

[Robotronfiend]

Let the Brutals play on their last gen systems with their retail discs! Zardoz has gifted us all with next gen technologies so that we may spend our immortality immersed in downloadable games while wearing funny and mostly see-through clothes.

[FunAndGun]

^^LMAO^^

[Roper316]

" Nintendo out of the hardware race " that is what happens when a game console maker turns their back on gamers to target non gamers. I agree with that & see Nintendo only making new hand helds and no more home consoles after the WiiU has run its course.

[stragomccloud]

Entitled much? Just because a company targets multiple demographics doesn't mean they have turned their back on the "core."

Were that true why is there still Maio, Zelda, Donkey Kong, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Super Smash Brothers, Xenoblade,.Baten Kaitos, Last Story? And why are they producing Bayonetta 2?

If they were really abandoning the core, then why do they make more core games than casual games? In fact, why make any core games at all?

I think a lot of gamers are just upset their hobby isn't as exclusive as uyr used to be. It's like the "when parents like it too then it's suddenly not cool anymore"dilemma.

[paul1974]

this article is probably why he is not working! the world internet is not ready for only digital download! too many people have slow internet or limits! a typical game at the moment is 25GB! they now say 720 will have 50GB limit on disc for games? so if these size games become downloads how long will one game take to download? the average download here in the uk is only 6mb and upload is 4mb! many have less then 2mb down and 1mb up!

I also fear that you can pay $60 or £60 for a game on download and like apple you still do not own the rights to the game to do with as you wish!!!! with a physical disc you can sell it on! trade it in in or take it to a friends house! you can't do that with a download!

This is why many people are upset with sony and microsoft in not having physical backwards capability on old games! they dont want you to use an old disc or buy a game and then sell it on at a later date or earlier if you hate it! you buy it on download and are stuck forever like it or love it!

The wii u allows you to transfer old wii games to the wii u because it has backwards capability built in as well as allowing to use the wii discs too! I hear ps4 won't.

I am glad I am at an age where I will soon not give a care for gaming anymore as i'm nearing 40! i am sad for my children mind that people would wish the demise of someone like Nintendo! as we are lost to companies like Apple and Microsoft with no real competition! Roper 316! I have no idea where you base your comments on?? how did they tun their backs on gamers?????????

Have Sony and MS not turned their backs on their customers by not making their new consoles backwards compatible? many people spent a lot of money on xbox and ps3 on games and controllers to be told they need cant use these on the new console?? at least nintendo have allowed old games and controllers to be compatible with their new console.

[the worst]

no keep the consoles close
its to keep the super garbage games out
there are million trash games on the PC