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PS4 vs X1: The Real Battle Is Still Ahead

The PS4 is out! So is the XBox One! The gaming world is on fire! Sales charts and review scores for launch games and "first impressions" and everything in between is slamming the front page of N4G at a startling pace. And of course, plenty of people are drawing allegiances, declaring winners, and pledging their loyalty to their favorite brands.

But it doesn't really matter. The real battle is still ahead.

Historically, console launches play very little role in the ultimate outcome of a console's lifespan. With a few exceptions (Wii Sports, Halo, Super Mario World, for instance) consoles do not typically have breakout hits at launch.

And yet, we all seem to place a microscope over each and every review score, every console sold, every hardware flub, every PR statement, every single triumph and failure within those first days of a console's life.

Launch sales are pretty much pointless. The Wii-U sold like gangbusters when it launched last year and yet it has struggled to make waves ever since then, despite quite a few great 1st-party games coming out for the system. Heck, I remember when the Dreamcast came out. The Dreamcast's launch was also around the same time that online gaming websites were really going full-swing and I recall the glut of praise and excitement for the Dreamcast's launch, especially when it launched in the West. We all know how THAT turned out.

"But Dedicated," you might be thinking. "How can you say launch sales don't matter? The PS4 and Xbox One just broke all sorts of records! Are you ignoring that on purpose?"

No. I'm simply saying that it does not matter. Launch sales are from the people who were going to buy the console no matter what. They're from the most devoted of fans, the people who just cannot wait, the people who don't care if the available library is sparse or if they run into hardware problems. Launch sales mean one thing and one thing only: supply is good. There will always be a loyal mob of fans ready to buy brand-new tech. These fans are the low-hanging fruit. No offense intended, but that is the truth. As we saw with the Wii-U, what we need to wait for is the sales numbers and the game library in a few months. How will the console be when people in the USA start getting their tax returns? How will the console be once Summer hits? THOSE are the sales that matter and by that point in time we will begin to get a better overall picture of the console's vitality.

Now, please do not misunderstand. I am not trying to belittle Sony nor Microsoft for their great launch-week sales of their new consoles.Nor am I trying to belittle people who went out and got a next-gen console during launch week. Rather, I wish to point out that it is incredibly premature to call any winners or even to say "this one is the better buy". It seems very short-sighted to buy a game console based on its launch-window titles. It seems even more short-sighted to declare a winner based on the sales brought on by early adopters.

The real battle comes next year. Both Sony and Microsoft will have non-launch games available. For these games, the standard will be higher. There will no longer be the excuse of "it's pretty good...for a launch game". These are the games that need to WOW. These are the games that need to prove the console is worth it to the general public. Games like Infamous and Halo are going to be more important than the sum of all the launch titles we've seen so far. Next year, we'll see the avalanche of indie titles finally come out and we'll see just how important indies are to the future of console gaming. Next year, we'll get a more complete picture of each console's sales. We'll also be able to get a far more accurate view of the console's reliability. The hardware failures within a console's launch are always overblown, but if there are actual hardware problems, we'll be able to see that within the first year of the console's life.

Lastly, we will be able to see how Sony and Microsoft treat their fanbases. After all, isn't that what matters? We will be able to see how complaints are handled, how glitches are snuffed out, how problems are dealt with. Will Microsoft go back on their word and bring back DRM? Will they focus on gaming again or will the Xbox One be a media machine? Will Sony be THE gaming destination, or will they break their word and focus too much on social media and movie streaming? Will Sony's PS+ requirement be worth it?

It is too early to answer these questions for most people. Sure, you can grab a handful of fans and they will tell you - loudly and passionate - if they think Microsoft will focus on gaming or if Sony will deliver the goods with PS+, but for the general public? That remains to be seen and the real battle is stil ahead.

Software_Lover3800d ago (Edited 3800d ago )

IMHO, just as in the case of the 360/ps3, once a certain sale mark has been reached you just have to call them both a success.

If the ps4 sells 100 million, and the XBone (who thought of that stupid name) sells 75 million, from a business perspective it's a win for both companies. On the other hand, if the XBone sells 100 million but makes Microsoft less of a profit than the ps4 selling at 75 million, then it's a different story.

I'm no Pachter, thankfully, but it doesn't take a genius to see that the ps4 will outsell the XBone for some time to come. The real story will be behind the scenes though. Profits for the companies, securing 3rd party deals, software sells, etc.

Me personally, I like the software and features of the XBone but I like how straightforward Sony was with their hardware. But I also will never pay 500 for a console. I have the money but I do have certain things I take stands on. I got my launch ps3 a little cheaper than the ps4 so I was good last gen lol.

Depending on the games you want to play, you can't go wrong with either console. Me personally, I will be getting my ps4 this week (great discount price) and hope to see fellow gamers having a blast. I will definitely be picking up an XBone once the price drops.

Edit:Nice blog

3800d ago
sAVAge_bEaST3798d ago (Edited 3798d ago )

I fully plan on seeing some great indy RPG's come out, with in the next 2 years. (we are starving for the chrono trigger level of greatness)

Show all comments (9)
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The Honkai Star Rail 2.2 banners introduce Robin and Boothill, alongside returning faces Topaz and Fu Xuan to HoYo's space fantasy RPG on PS5.

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KEMCO ditch the RPGS for a horror Visual Novel - Horrific Xanatorium

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Ar Tonelico Qoga: Knell Of Ar Ciel Retro Review – Love Conquers All

Gary Green said: You’ll be forgiven if you haven’t heard of the Ar Tonelico trilogy. The previous two games arrived so late in the PS2’s life-cycle that they simply went unnoticed. While most were tinkering with their shiny new PS3s, Ar Tonelico: Melody of Elemia and Ar Tonelico II: Melody of Metafalica were being ‘returned to sender’ by your local Game stores. Luckily, you won’t need to have played them to understand and appreciate this third and final chapter, Qoga (pronounced k-yoga) tells the story of a racial war between humans and Reyvateils, a breed of biologically produced female cyborgs capable of reproduction, while still having a digital mind.

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Giga_Gaia7h ago

Oh my god. I kinda wish this would get a remaster on PS5, it would be awesome. One of my favorite games on PS3.

That and 3D Dot Game Heroes. It's a shame that some stuff is stuck on PS3.

Knightofelemia5h ago

Ar Tonelico 3 is good I still prefer the first AT game. The music is solid in all the games and Akiko Shikata is a very talented singer bringing life to the game. Only annoying part is well I find is Saki I always choose Finnel or Tyria. KOEI so needs to HD remaster the franchise along with Ar Nosurge and Ciel Nosurge since it never came to North America. I would day one the Ar Toneliceo games and Ar Nosurge if they were remastered.

TheColbertinator4h ago

I still have the limited edition of Qoga unopened. Unfortunately it never went up in value like I had hoped all these years.

Father__Merrin29m ago

Used to own all these quirky JRPG on ps3 good times. Wish I would have kept them all