Revisiting Vgchartz Predictions for Hardware Sales Worldwide in Nov & Dec

In November, Vgchartz predicted hardware sales for the six gaming platforms for November 2 to December 27 . That data is now available on the site. The article from November anticipated that the Americas market would see over 15 million units of hardware sold in the eight week period. An even larger volume of hardware was expected to be sold in the Others region – over 18 million units. Japan in contrast was forecast to see nearly 3 million units of hardware sold. Worldwide, over 37 million units of hardware were forecast to be sold. Read on to see how close the predictions were to reality.

[Sonyslave3]

nothing to c here move along

[thereapersson]

Is it really that much harder to type "see" instead of "c"?

[TOO PAWNED]

I don't think he knew how to write "see" before you just told him

[mint royale]

You clicked on the link to post that? Did you read the article? Hmm... oh dear.

[gaffyh]

What are these numbers from? Are they just the usual VGChartz guesstimates or from NPD, Gfk, MediaCreate?

[WhittO]

does it really matter he typed "c" instead of "see" ?

I mean, you still understood what he meant and its not like what he's typing is getting marked or something.

People dont have to write in full for you, if you dont like it dont read it.

[whoelse]

The PS3 would be performing so much better if the economy was where it was a year ago. Kaz Hirai (spelling?) said that the PS3 would be very little effected by the poor economy but he was very much mistaken. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony drop the price very soon, perhaps before Killzone 2.

[pushergreen]

hate to see a good console fail but that is looking like a possibility. Hopefully 09 will pick up for sony if not......KZ2 is sonys last hope, if this game fails it may well be over for the PS3 sadly.

Well Fish I said it was a "possibility" maybe i should have said "remote possibility", secondly I never said I want the PS3 to fail, I don't, having two hd consoles duke it out has been good for gamers on both machines. But It would be foolish not to see that Sony is in a bit of a pickle. Loosing money on each console sold may be ok as long as you have a high attach rate but that does not seem to be the case. Anyhow 08 is done 09 will hopefully bring gamers, developers and hardware manufactures success on both machines. Fck the Wii!

[Fishy Fingers]

How anyone can consider selling nearly 20 million units of anything in 2 years a failure is beyond me (well lets be fair, 9/10 of "those" comments are attention seeking and little more)

KZ is Sonys last hope huh, recall people saying the same thing about countless games. The PS3 may have been out sold by the 360 since it's price cut but it's going no where, and honestly, when people wise up to that perhaps we can all get back to concentrating on games rather than playing at cooperate loyalists. Perhaps...

[mint royale]

its just the way things seem to be. PS3 at 19 million is doing brilliantly as is the 360 at 27 million. Even the is flamed and disregared even though it is the most successful console ever and approaching 50 million units sold.

[Sevir04]

Being an "Overpriced" Gaming machine, priced higher than it's competition and releasing one year after it's competitor with less game, always gets over looked. but selling 19 million worldwide in 2 years with all the backlash and badmouth from industry professionals industry bias, industry fanboys, and fanboys, and most recently journalist in other industries, like CNN and NewYork Times, is an austounding feat, i dont think any other company but sony could have pulled this off, with having built up it's fanbase across teh board, with 3 previous playstation products and it's now flagship successor it's fair to say that Sony's PS3 will be supported vigorously through out it's progected ten year Cycle, and likely as 2009 goes on The products of sony's labor will will harvest and give them a closer competitive edge For them this year and the years to come.

[solidt12]

I think the PS3 prediction show how a bad economy can really throw off predictions. The economy went from bad to worse in Novemeber, or did every one forget that already. Those higher than expected sales of the Wii and Xbox 360 could of been potential PS3 sales if the Economy was better.

[sak500]

Original xbox sold 20-25million before being thrown in the bin. OVerall sales doesnt matter in most cases when bigger issue is revenue or loss, which determines life of a product. HOw much is sony willing to keep losing on ps3 is the question?

The argument of VG charts favoring 360 console is shot down by this report. Need to bookmark it for future references. Teh sony lovers always complained about VG under projecting sony and over projecting 360 sales numbers. See the only 3 platforms which were way below their projections were sony's. Ninty and MS over achieved the projections. Looks good for both companies. I'm sure Devs and industry watchers are busy looking at these figures and planning their projects.

Just glad that i got in the HD gaming in jan 06 with no regrets and looks like made the right choice.

[hitthegspot]

Bubble for you. They over estimated all of Sony and just the DS. However Nintendo DS can be explained that people most likely are waiting for the new DSi. On the same note, PS3 could claim that people are waiting for a price cut...

[sak500]

Tnx hittingthespot, bubbles back. I remembered one site nextgen wars or something, wonder whats the figure that site is showing. SDF used to lable the site as MS funded as well.

[PS360PCROCKS]

wow if those numbers are true the PS3 got STOMPED big time by the Wii, almost doubled up by the 360, and the 360 got doubled up by the Wii, wow. Although to be fair Sony did sell 8 Million if you throw in PSP and PS2. But I'm sure Microsoft sold millions of Windows based PC's, but I digress, the PS3 just got hammered the end of this year.

[thewhoopimen]

MS doesn't sell sell windows pcs. Pc manufacturers do. Sony is a pc manufacturer as well.

[PS360PCROCKS]

Um duh but they make money off those manufacturers

[thewhoopimen]

Don't say something "duh" then and I wouldn't have to correct you.

[InMyOpinion]

Projected PS3 sales 4,577,574
Actual PS3 sales 2,759,977

Projected 360 sales 4,489,987
Actual 360 sales 4,863,442

Projected Wii sales 9,113,293
Actual Wii sales 9,752,542

Looks like both the 360 and the Wii did better than expected while the PS3 did a little worse.

[Hiruma Youchi]

Lmao @ the way you putted that last phrase.

But I see where your coming from. VG are always called X360 fanboys and now people can actually see that they projected good numbers for the ps3. and look what happenned.

[thewhoopimen]

I think VG's numbers were fair considering that everyone in the industry expected Sony to price drop in order to compete for the holiday season. Sony didn't because of the strong yen exacerbating losses on each ps3 unit sold worldwide due Western market recessions. Hopefully their preservation gambit was worth it because now they have to price cut into a slower sales season. Did they turn a profit for the quarter? Looks like they did, so let's see what they do next in this critical period.

[Dread]

jenzo

be careful, what u say

this is n4g u might offend the sony defense force. they know the "real truth" and eventhough the numbers say otherwise the reality is that plasytation 3 did much better that the 360...

thir excuses will explain everything here is a sample:

playstation did much better considering the price

vcharts is biased towards 360

ms paid vcharts so the numbers are incorrect

everyone is hating on playstation and it is not fair becasue Sony can do no wrong

world wide sales are much better for playstation

playstation has had better sales overall worldwide for the first two years

etc etc etc

dont worry sony defense force and sackboys alike i have got ur back

[InMyOpinion]

Shhh...I think they are listening.

[Kill Crow]

There projections aren't that far of the actual ... so why do people have such a HUGE distrust for them? It's projections so it's never going to be perfect, but as has been shown it's not far off ...

what is the real problem?

[PirateThom]

Their numbers are way off.

If you look at their front page, every single console is way overtracked.

[solidt12]

Actually some games are way off from actual sales at times and they never correct them. Like Motorstorm 2 and MGS 4. That is why people think they are biased. I remember a article from Konami stating MGS 4 hit 4.5 million sales and at the time Vg Chartz had like a 3.7 million. Motorstorm 2 hit 1 million and right now vgchartz says like half that amount.

[Kill Crow]

In fairness the largest disparity is the PS3, but I thought people complained that they "under" tracked it, whereas in reality they over tracked it?

But for the most part it's fairly good ... or am I missing something? Do the numbers on the front page tie up with this article?

[Dread]

@killcrow

the thing is that it does not matter

if they criticize Sony or even seem to criticize Sony

the sony defense force will be up in arms.

so now even though they over predicted sony sales, they will spin it and say that they were right all along. the irony is delightful, but that is the problem with fanboys.

[PirateThom]

If their main page is wrong, why trust anything else they've said?

I'm not talking a few thousand or even a million units, everything is overtracked by about 5 million units or more.

I was playing around with sales the other week, and this link was posted:

http://www.europe-nintendo....

The second number is sales up to a point from this year, the first number is VGChartz numbers from last year, but unless Sony managed to ship 7 million PS3s and Microsoft managed to ship 11m 360s in one month or in regions that aren't US, Japan or Europe, I really doubt trusting them is an option

PS3: 5.7 + 6 = 11.7m
360: 11 + 5 = 16m

VGChartz:
PS3: 19.2m
360: 27.2m

I can get the numbers for Wii as well, but I just had these to hand.

[mint royale]

vgchartz weekly numbers may be debatable but overall they are accurate because they are based off the figures that MS, SOny and Nintendo give out.

Are you seriously suggesting that the xbox is at 22 million and the ps3 at 14 million?

I can bet you anything that when the big 3 announce their new shipped figures in a few weeks time that the wii will be near 50 million, 360 around 28-29 million and the ps3 21-22 million.

EDIT: The link you posted shows that in November 360 was at 25 million and the ps3 at 16 million (9 million lead? doubt that). Are you saying its not feasable for the 360 to have sold 2.5 million since november and the ps3 3 million?

[PirateThom]

I took VGCHartz numbers from the end of 2007 and added Media Crate, NDP and Nintendo's leaked European numbers for last year and that's what I came to.

Like I said, I'm not exact, but there's no way in hell VGChartz are remotely close when their numbers are 7m and 11m higher than mine which are based on actual sales figures.

[mint royale]

over 16 million and 22 million units respectively to retailers at the end of september which already debunks your figures. Vgchartz is alrite. Not completely accurate but in the right ballpark.

Vgchartz figures are based on the best sales figures- the 3 companies themselves.

[PirateThom]

I'm not making up these figures though, these are recognised trackers (Media Crate, NPD and GfK). These are figures that are posted on a weekly/monthly basis on this site.

If there's a difference between their figures and Sony/MS/VGCHartz numbers, what can I tell you?

[Kill Crow]

And I don't really know what that link shows either? it's jus a forum post and those figures don't appear to be too accurate too?

Either way, why would you ignore Microsoft and Sony's actual figures over other media trackers like NPD? Don't they just do the same thing as VGCharts, i.e. estimate?

You suggest sony and M$ had to sell something like 7 million consoles in 1 month to make up VGChart's figures? But that's almost a whole years worth of sales? Are you sure you haven't misread the figures and missed a year of sales somewhere?

[mint royale]

because we have the ACTUAL numbers from the companies themselves. NPD, media create etc may be accurate but they are still estimations like vgchartz. Also what about the small markets such as Australia, South and Central America, China, India, Brazil that your figures are missing?

Also if vgchartz is so unreliable why have you used their 2007 figures as your basis. Wouldn't that make your figures unreliable? Im sorry but vgchartz is alot closer than you are.

[Dread]

that is so strange

all the experts here at n4g and the sony defense force have been saying for months that the 360 was only beating playstation 3 in sales in america. They kept sayin that world sales were much better for the playstation 3

however this data seems to contradict them. It is puzzling

can someone please explain?

or is it simply that the 360 actually beat playstation in sales in december and november?

if true that would be blasphemy here at n4g

[Oner]

Simply that the 360 actually beat playstation in sales in december and november

Yep. That seems about right. Why aren't you discussing the whole year though I wonder? Hypocrisy meter pegged at 9000!!!

[PirateThom]

http://n4g.com/gaming/NewsC...

Read.

[Dread]

@oner
because i am commenting on the article. if the article was for world sales it would be different

how exactly does that make me a hypocrite?

if u want why dont you give me the world sale number for 2008 ans i will gladly comment on them and discuss them with u in a civilized manner without insultin each other.

[Oner]

NP, here you go Dread, Thanx to Pirate from the link he provided above.

As of 1/1/09
Europe (missing 10 weeks) + Media Create (missing 1 week) + NPD (missing last month):

Wii: 4,754,000 + 2,880,069 + 8,021,000 = 15,655,069
PS3: 2,196,000 + 987,514 + 2,818,800 = 6,002,314
360: 1,566,000 + 317,390 + 3,295,400 = 5,178,790

Hell, even if Sony DOESN'T outsell the 360 this year it won't be by that much! Not bad for the most expensive console available during that period and continuing on. NO ONE can dispute that.

Plus how the PS3 has outsold the 360 in comparison to it's year to year comparison (first 2 years 360 vs first 2 years PS3)

BUT how it also outsold it even during it's direct date comparison last 2 years (360) vs last 2 years (PS3)

I mean come on! How is FACTUAL information spinning ANYTHING?!?! I've said it before and will say it again. It's almost not even worth it to try and explain things to people WHO JUST DON'T GET IT.

Seriously. People need to STFU. Open their eyes, shut their mouths, listen & think before speaking...only then will they be able to understand/hear the truth and stop spreading misinformation.

(That's not really directed at you Dread but a general statement for the state of N4G)

[Dread]

well oner thanx for the numbers but u did not answer my question how am i a hypocrite?

if your numbers are accurate and i'll assume they are then the playstation and 360 are both doing ok. i think that it is remarkable that the 360 is actually competing with sony. ms has leveled the playing field something that i thought would be impossible. I thought that sony would be destroying ms by now. the fact that we are head to head speaks volumes on the progress ms has done from one gen to the next.

i congratulate sony for pushing an expensive system so well, but i also give credit to ms for competing with sony (with hardware problems to boot)

at the end we both win so i hope we can at least agree on that

next time try not to insult me it is completely unnecessary

peace

[Oner]

You spew stuff about "n4g and the sony defense force", get proven wrong and yet you don't see the hypocrisy in that?

NVM. Like I said, some people just don't get it.

[wii ftw]

why are you so aggressive, especially after what your posting isn't completely true?

Do you have any evidence that the ps3 outsold the 360 in 2007? No, there is none. Look at the figures from sony and microsoft and you'l see a slight Microsoft win. However it is so close that I'd just call it a virtual tie.

Also when the ps3 launched the 360 was only at 5.5 million after a diabolical first year. Now the gap is near 8 million. So since the ps3 launched the 360 has outsold it by over 2 million units.

However if the launches are alligned then the ps3 is ahead by over 2 million units.

Those are fair facts. Stop being so aggressive.

[Oner]

Where the hell are you getting your info from? Because NPD, Media Create and Euro (via Ninty) support what I am saying much more than your "info"?

"Now the gap is near 8 million" I may be wrong and can admit so when the full numbers release but that is HIGHLY improbable. But either way that would only show total sales and not comparative year to year 360 to PS3 and my point of what I said earlier anyway?

[wii ftw]

actually LOOK at NPD in 2007 and you will see a clear victory for the 360. Remember teh ps3 struggles against the GBA?

actually LOOk at gfk figures for 2007 and you will see a clear victory for the ps3. The 360 was useless in Europe in 2007.

Japan was bad for both consoles.

Add the regions + LOOK at the SHIPMENT DATA from SOny and MS and you will see a virtual tie with MS just ahead but well within the margin of error. You have provided no evidence to the contrary for 2007 have you?

I wish I could bet with you that the gap when the figures are released in 2 weeks will be between 7.5 and 8 million consoles. The gap in septmeber was 5.5 million and since the 360 price cut the xbox has gained 2 million. Do the math.

edit- actually looking and sony and MS last shipment figures on september 30th the gap was 6 million so I think my prediction is safe.

[Oner]

We'll see.

[mint royale]

the figures to be released at the end of january go up to last quarter -31st of december so I think 8 million may be a tad optimistic but it will be close!

[Chrissy]

*@ the start of the year*

PS3 fanboys:'' But sony, a projection of only 10 million ps3?? You are being too modest''

Sony:''We dont want to miss any more projections so we set the expectations really, really low''

ololololololololololololololo l, a year later and not even 9 million sold

Year of the ps3 reaches Valhalla

[Aquanox]

According to this the Xbox 360 has outsold the Playstation 3 WORLDWIDE by more than a 1 million margin in 2008.

What a come back.

[yoghurt]

Well done for xbox 360 being ahead of the PS3 with a 1 year head start in the US and a 1.5 year head start in other regions and being half the price. Jolly well done....

[cliffbo]

@Hiruma. it took MS 7 years to get up to 14 million live users and it took Sony 2 years to get up to 16 million PSN users. what's to understand?
and Sony sold 3 million more consoles even though they delayed in Europe... again, what's not to understand there. Sony are doing just fine.

@Dread. what are you talking about? you don't have to sign up to PSN on the PS3 at all. don't know what you've been reading

[cliffbo]

PS3 2 years sales: 19,265,176
360 2 years sales: 16,246,727

Live: 14 million users in seven years
PSN : 16 million users in two years

now argue your way out of that

[yoghurt]

Unfortunately people just don't see it cliffbo, they are blinded by the big numbers, it confuses people and turns them into zombies that just take the headlines as gospel.

But, as you say, it is simple Playstation 3 is performing and selling BETTER than the Xbox 360 over the same period. THATS IT, ITS THAT SIMPLE.

[Hiruma Youchi]

Live: 14 million users in seven years .

WTF?????????????????????

I know people who had the first Xbox and now have a Ps3 and no xbox360 did you Count them in the numbers? get real.

edit: amd did you also count the people who actually dont play online? My kid cousins dont even play online with their Ps3 and Xbox they're way to young to even know theres online.

[Dread]

every playstation owner has to sign up for online

not so with 360

so the data does not represent actual users. If u think more people play online with the playstation 3 that with 360 u are living in a dream world.

and as for total sales

it is remarkable that the 360 did so well (tell me honestly that u did not think that playstation would destroy the competition the minute it came oout..i did and i was dead wrong). so if playstation is winning in sales overall for two years by that slim of a margin then i would not be so happy if i were sony who had a 75% market share last gen.

[PirateThom]

Every PS3 owner DOES NOT have to sign up for online.

You can download firmware updates and play games without a PSN account.

[Danja]

I was just about to say that Pirate..

and as Cliffo stated the PS3 is selling way faster than the 360..

the 360 almost 3 years to sell 20 million ..

the PS3 has one that in 2 years

[MGOelite]

in total sales for the entire year ps3 has outsold the 360, the ps3 exclusives have won the most GOTY and other awards (MGS4 and LBP FTW) blu ray is really staring to catch on.

truely is the year of the ps3

[yoghurt]

Dread: No, i didn't expect it to 'destroy' the competition the moment it came out, no console could come out and instantly sell 10 million, you must have been in a dreamworld! I expected Sony to perform as it did with the PS2, its a marathon not a sprint and 2008 was a great year, and 2009 will be better.

And you make an even more redicoulous comment by bring up market share, you CANNOT refer to market share so early in the console(s) lives, in 4 or 5 years when this gen is coming to an end you can then say ok, MS has this % etc etc. I don't know what you expected Sony were releasing to instantly 'destroy' the competition and instantly gain a 75% market share....

[Dread]

fair enough

but i honestly thought Sony would be wining by now.

and i think it is l;legitimate to bring up market share because it has been two years already. in my opinion enough time

but we can wait and continue this next year it you think that is enough time for Sony.

but did you really think 360 would be doing so well against Sony?

and for the 10 year future proof theory that remains to be seen. i do hope the system has legs because i expect to buy one soon, but i am not prepared to make that statement yet.

[Danja]

Had the PS3 launched at $399....then had a price drop to $299...obviously we all know that things would have been different dread so quit being ignorant..

[cliffbo]

what is also interesting to note is that every PS3 owner has the ability to download content from PSN, while about 65% of 360 owners can download from Live. memory sticks can only get you so far. it is clear that Sony are set to make far more money from PSN than MS from Live and that third parties are going to see more opportunity on PSN than on Live. that can only get better for Sony as MS begin to sell more Arcades (minus a HDD) and Sony up their HDD space from 80GB to 160GB.

[pansenbaer]

You forgot that Microsoft gives you options! You have the option to get a hard drive!

In other words, they set themselves up to make more money by people buying a hard drive when the realize their memory stick won't cut it :)

[cliffbo]

do you think that every arcade and core owner is going to buy a HDD... and in what way is it a good option to have to make? wouldn't you sooner be guaranteed a HDD?

[pansenbaer]

Sorry, I was joking. I was making light at the fact that Microsoft thinks their business plan is better than Sony's.

"Pay for it later if you want for an absurd price vs. Hard drive standard with every system"

[Re-versed]

You are such an idiot!!!

When they talk about 10 mil. they talked about the end of the FISCAL Year,which is in the end of March 2009!I predict 11!

Ignorant people...

[yoghurt]

Its quite plain to see Dread that 360 is doing so well because of its price point, its a cheap way into the 'next-gen', yes there have been some great games, gears, halo etc BUT, if the xbox was at the same price point at ps3....well you know the rest don't you.

And I do hope you decide to buy a PS3, its a beast of a machine and some seriously good games coming out in the next couple of months and this year in general no real gamer needs to miss out on these

[jrsenkbe]

And worldwide sales go to the Playstation brand. Its funny that the PS2 sold over half of what the 360 has sold. What will happen when SONY finally puts the console to rest?

[gano]

Since when is vg reliable?
Someone really wants to push them out
there.

[Product]

Ill believe Vgchartz over Patcher anyday.

[N4PS3G]

Live: 14 million users in seven years
PSN : 16 million users in two years

now argue your way out of that

Paid service + Silver = XBL
Free service+ PS3 accounts + PSP accounts= PSN

do you know hoy many psp are out there world wide? and how easy is to create a free online accounts??

[Bladestar]

Not to mention that most PS3 users have multiple PSN accounts... I heard of people with 5 PSN accounts... that's not usually the case with xbox live.. since people care about the gamescore and achievements.

"Live: 14 million users in seven years
PSN : 16 million users in two years "

these stupid comments... how come he didn't include the PS2 online service in there... 10 years... remember the similarly cripple Playstation service the PS2 had?

Also, people should stop comparing the "two" vs "three" years to try to say that the PS3 is doing better... NPD show that the PS3 did worst in terms of sales than the previous holiday...

The xbox 360 started selling better after the PS3 came out... Sony and their fans hyped the crap out of the PS3.. saying, "wait until the PS3 comes out and the xbox 360 games with be blown out of the water in terms of graphics"... "cell this... and blu-ray that..." damn even I was like.. wow... lots of people waited to see if the PS3 would deliver... did it? nope... the PS3 sold poorly at launch... and it continue to do so... xbox 360 sales increased dramatically right after the PS3 launch. Why? because lots of people that were standing on the sidelines that used to be Playstation fans were waiting...

The best thing that happened to Microsoft and the xbox 360 was the release of the PS3... just like the release of Home, LBP, Resistance, Haze, lair and many other hypes...

Soon Kill Zone 2.. will be out... and Sony will not be able to sell PS3 based on hype...

[bviperz]

To ensure that I spread the word to all gamers/fans @ N4G, in hopes that they all realize, even if they don't agree with it, the truth.

Statistics mean nothing more that what is stated. They definitely will not, repeat, WILL NOT tell you what the future will bring. So analyze this: play and enjoy your games.

[morganfell]

Oh the mods listened and he received exactly what he asked for and exactly what he deserved.

[fatstarr]

such accurate predictions except for the Sony Family.