Could Xbox Game Pass really hit '100 million' subscribers? Here are some thoughts.

Wedbush games industry analyst Michael Pachter weighs in.

[darthv72]

Oh... well if Patcher weighs in then it has to be a resounding:

NO

[Jin_Sakai]

Regardless it’s going to skyrocket when Activision Blizzard games hit Game Pass.

[Lightning77]

But to a 100 million? Absolutely not I can realistically see 5 to 6 million within the year.

Pachter gets paid for making terrible predictions. Must be nice lmao.

[Jin_Sakai]

Yea that’s unrealistic. Still the subscriber count is going to increase significantly when Activision/Blizzard games hit the service.

[garryxcs]

"skyrocket", that's highly doubtful you're not accounting for the fact that the majority of those people who are will download those games on gp already have gp.

[shinoff2183]

I feel they will increase but there are people out there like me for instance that didnt really care for the games they made. Especially cod eh pass. Skyrocket though seems to be overstated.

[neutralgamer1992]

It won't hit 100 million unless Ms cam produce high quality exclusives and release one every month

Better question is at what price point and subscription number will it become profitable for Ms because the more profit it makes the more resources Ms will allocate to make it grow

Recurring subscriptions is what most companies with services want. Believe it or not the reason so many of these companies want us to turn on the automatic payment is because they know a lot of people forget to turn it off. It's like gym membership they know only 40% of the people will use it while other 60% will keep paying in hopes of going one day

darthv72

Also you made a comment in the other story I forgot to reply to you but why are you paying $45 to renew when you can pay $26-28

There are always deals

[darthv72]

This was the first time it renewed for 45, i will get other deals before it does it again.

[mooreneco21]

Reality of the subscriber business model is regardless of the medium, and as Netflix is currently experiencing, they all have a user base ceiling. Is game pass good value, sure, but will it convert non-gamers into Xbox gamers, nope! Brand awareness and deals only reach so far and ultimately a gamer with the money to subscribe is most likely already a gamer.

[roadkillers]

Nintendo has the ability to turn non-gamers into gamers. The only game that has this ability in Microsoft’s arsenal is Minecraft.

[Godmars290]

No. Not even Nintendo can "magically" convert non-gamers. Sure as eff such can't be done by the likes of Uncharted or Halo. The best you're going to get is someone who wants to watch for the graphics and action, but sur as eff isn't paying upwards to a publisher desired $100+ per single game + DLC/MT much less a recurring sub.

And it the Bobby Koticks of the industry that need that drilled into their heads, not us.

[shinoff2183]

Nintendo had the wii that brought non gamers. Thats it. Switch isnt bring in non gamers unless your talking about kids having their first system. My kids all have ps4s but we always have bought the newest nintendo console. Mainly for their first party games.

Also i dont feel like minecraft is gonna bring in non gamers. I just dont understand the comment.

[myfathersbastard]

Most adult gamers I know still see switch as a “kids” console and don’t own one. I only personally know 2 other adults who use one. So no, Nintendo doesn’t turn non gamers into gamers. They have issues just being seen as a worthwhile system currently with the new generation out.

[0hMyGandhi]

I was a gamer, and gamed alot. Haven't lately, and got GamePass about 6 months ago, and I friggin love it. Love seeing some smaller indie games that I can play comfortably without worrying about sinking hundreds of hours into like I did when I was younger.

So yes, "non-gamers" will see incredible appeal in gamepass. So far, GamePass reminds me a bit of the good ol' Xbox Live Arcade days, and that's never a bad thing.

[shinoff2183]

Havent lately but you were a gamer. How long is lately. You already admitted you were a gamer so you are not a non gamer even if you took a small break.

[0hMyGandhi]

"Lately" is probably a 10-12 year break.

[purple101]

How many xbone consoles did they sell last gen. Approx 50mill.

That's then the max they could hope to have in subscribers.

If there lucky. Very very lucky. As half Their fans jumped ship I rekon.

[Lightning77]

Which means there gonna have over 50 million subscribers. Sony fanboys have a knack for saying MS won't do X, Y, Z only for them to do X, Y, Z. You'd think you'd learn by now.

[Zhipp]

Gamepass is also on PC and streaming. Also Series X|S is outselling Xbox one so clearly they didn't lose half their fans.

[CrimsonWing69]

Pach Attack!!!

[Brazz]

This gen? No, no way.
In the next 20 years... It's possible.

[rlow1]

Did you guys even read the article? They are talking mainly about TenCent and specifically Riot Games and the agreements that Xbox has with them.

Then they go on to talk about Xbox offering special perks to people that play under TenCent umbrella. To play those same games on GP. 168 million gamer base is nothing to snuff at.

With incentives, deals they make with other developers, the convenience of playing on any device and of course the cost. They could hit and break that 100 million barrier.

If your just focused on Activision, then thats like looking at the top of a Iceberg and thinking that’s the whole thing.

[Godmars290]

Wait. So we've gone through this "Gamepass is the future" and "Sony needs to copy Gamepass" BS when, years after implementation, its yet to hit 100 million subs? When its not only on the console but PC?

*facepalm*

[rlow1]

It’s been in existence for 5 years. So your saying with all the content that will be coming, plus all the deals they’ll be doing with other companies they can’t do 100 million?
I honestly expect in the next two years they be there and possibly beyond.

[Godmars290]

Okay, you're saying its been around for five years, that's "true" potential lies in what's not even on it, so how is my "MS already won, but not really" argument wrong when there is nothing - NOTHING - of actually substance that supports said "success"?

If anything, from all the billions thrown into it with no solid reruns, how is Gamepass currently nothing but an expanding sinkhole?

[rlow1]

I never said anything about MS winning. But subscriptions services always start at a loss. Usually it takes years to start turning a profit. But do you honestly support the idea that with all the studios MS has and all the content they will produce. That the service isn’t going to grow?

If in the next five years they haven’t really grown nor turned a profit. Then you could say it’s a failure and time to hang it up. But with Mountain of content coming. I personally don’t see that happening. Peace

[Godmars290]

Given they've had loads of studios beforehand only to let them rot, have practically needed to be shamed to bring back IPs and have suffered multiple droughts in producing games, yeas, color me doubtful. Nevermind their issues with SP gaming.

And by "winning" I mean the asinine insistence by paid and unpaid shills as well as their fanbase that GP has turned them a profit despite that buying Bethesda alone will take decades to recoup. The further insistence that Sony needs to do the same.

And then there's your insistence on this as current nonexistent mountain of content.

[rlow1]

The difference being that those studios you spoke of were developed internally. MS and Xbox were under two different leaders back then. Ballmer and Matrick. Both who lacked understanding of the gaming Market.

So your saying that under Nadella and Phil spending billions on these companies. With a proven track record of their own are somehow going to produce nothing???

You don’t make sense. I can tell you right now when a company spends billions, no less 68 billion for one company. They aren’t going to produce vaporware that’s for sure.

[Godmars290]

They aren't going to produce much other than what's already been made or is generally recognized. Fallout and Skyrim then Starfield which technically are all the same game with different themes. Phil spent multiples of what it would take to make and market a gen's worth of games in order to own a few proven titles with attached audiences.

A difference of choice and risk, and no choice with little risk with expectation to exploit.

And no. The studios I mentioned earlier weren't all internal. Many were 3rd part with notable IPs. Left to rot and eventually closed, with many of their people shifted around into new studios of which many again simply rotted away till closed. That was pretty much Rare till eventually Sea Of Thieves: a game that took years any worthy content.

And Phil was around during all that.

If I don't make sense to you its because you see MS as "Your Team" who will beat Sony rather than a game publisher that's put potential profit and market domination over a game publisher should be doing, which is making games.

[rlow1]

Well you seem to color people with a certain lens. I don’t mind a good differing of opinions. But as always it devolves into what side your on. I purposely didn’t paint you as a Sony fan and MS hater because I just wanted some good back and fourth. Unfortunately you decided to paint me in that light because I decided to defend Xbox.
I actually like both systems and both companies as well. Both companies have had their ups and downs. Both have folded studios into others or closed them down entirely.
As for your assertion that MS has a history of not supporting studios, that has no merit. Forza studio killing it since 2001, Bungie killed it right up to when MS allowed them to buy back their studio(only major publisher to ever have done that). Mojang studios is another one that comes to mind. Not counting all the excellent pc games Microsoft game studios produced over the years. Seems to me your just putting out opinions without researching the facts.

Of course Sony and Nintendo have an excellent track record of supporting their studios. I love the games that they make and have fond memories of many hours played.
But I defend MS on this site a little more because of the extreme attitudes towards them here. People get riled up so easily and accuse each other of this and that all the time……predictable
Again, the next two years we’ll see if Microsoft just spent $76.5 billion dollars on two companies just to turn around and not support them.

That’s why I’m confused, not because as you so blatantly accused me of be an Xbox fanboy. Because in the real world you don’t lay down Billions of dollars for nothing in return. Usually CEOs that have mis-appropriated funds are fired or the companies are sued by investors to recoup their losses.
So for you to say that they aren’t going to produce anything of merit beyond the typical franchises and not acknowledged the real life implications of running a company is what left me confused. That’s not fanboy crap, that’s reality. Peace

[Godmars290]

I accuse you of being an XBox fanboy because of your insistence that Gamepass is a good thing, which its not. That the billions MS spent on two major game companies is a good thing, which its not. That MS have only supported their studios, which they haven't.

They've supported studios with major, established IPs before they bought them, but have been otherwise clueless to continue them much less create successful IPs of their own. Bungie buying themselves out at Halo's height - because they thought it was finished yet MS wanted more - with 343 taking over to mixed results is evidence of that. As was buying Mojang when nothing further could really be done with Minecraft after becoming an industry staple. Aside from graphical tweaks. Likewise buying Bethesda and Activision right now means nothing more than denial or leverage against Sony.

As well as content for Gamepass, or version 2.0 of always online. If that comes to fruition, consumer game ownership will vanish as overall quality is effected by the same mentality infesting the mobile market.

[rlow1]

Well I can understand your concern about GP and understand the ownership issue. Thats always been a concern wether you talk about music, movies and of course games. I can however put my old Xbox discs in a newer systems and play them. Sony has allowed that to a degree. So you can still own your own content.
As for you grouping everyone who on GP as an Xbox fanboy, we’ll I doubt theirs anything I could say to change your mindset on that, so I won’t.
Peace

[blacktiger]

No to this day Mouse on PC has lag, thats why they advertise regarding to how much accurate it is. That's just mouse, streaming? really? Ask the Esports if streaming could work? They'll laugh at you.

[brewin]

Once they really start advertising the App availability in new TVs next year, combined with the release of the big games like Starfield and Redfall, along with ActiBlizz games like CoD, there is going to be a huge swell of new subs. They'll likely be bundling controllers and new 3 month subs with the TVs. There is a storm brewing.

Another thing, I can see a world where Netflix and MS are locked in an agreement. Gamepass could potentially be included with Netflix and vice versa. Immediately putting them over 100 million subs. They're already working together so it's actually more than likely to happen at this point.

[garryxcs]

Haven't they already had big games hit the service? Where was the "huge swell" from Horizon and Halo Infinite? Isn't the service already available on multiple devices why would adding the app to TV's make a huge difference? This "storm" you guys keep trying to sell everyone on isn't likely to be much more then a brief down poor. I'm not saying gp won't see an increase but this constant over exaggeration just isn't going to happen and there's plenty of past data that proves that. Time for folks to temper expectations.

[ocelot07]

They could very much do. I'll keep subbing if they keep offering me the £1 for 1 month or 3 months subs.

Also if they keep the price low. I think the full price is £7 a month for standard gamepass if I recall or £12 a month for gamepass ultimate. I personally think these are fair prices and absolute max you should charge for these services. With many more people joining the PC community. People remaining and joining Xbox. Don't forget the Streaming users who may not have a pc or Xbox. It's what I deffinetly would be using to play the new elder scrolls on the cheap if I didn't own a Xbox or capable PC.

[ChasterMies]

No. Xbox doesn’t have a large enough audience. Even in the glory days of the Xbox 360, they sold about 80M consoles. And now they have rival game subscription services to contend with.

[ApocalypseShadow]

Same nonsense, different day. The Kinect, The Cloud, Xbox one x, game pass.

"Everyone is going to buy into it. There's 3 1/2 billion gamers out there or more just waiting to buy into the next thing Microsoft drops."

Then, reality sets in. Microsoft's brand can only reach so many people and is only popular in certain circles. Kinect faded. The Cloud talk faded. One x faded. Now it's game pass.

Pairing themselves with TVs isn't going to work. And big games don't play well on small phones. Non gamers aren't going to become gamers on phones trying to play competitively against regular gamers in COD.

There have been subscription services before. Gaikai didn't do it. On Live didn't. Stadia didn't. Sony did had TV support and there just wasn't a demand from non gamers. So, Sony discontinued pushing TVs with it. Even with Microsoft's publisher acquisitions, non gamers aren't running to get an Xbox. Nintendo and Sony fans aren't rushing to get an Xbox. Even after the Bethesda announcement. But the narrative is that millions if not billions are just salivating and waiting for Microsoft's content.

There will be an uptick. But not the uptick some like to believe like some huge wave of gamers are going to jump in. Microsoft has yet to prove to gamers that they can consistently put out great content on consoles and PCs. Even game pass currently isn't consistent.What's makes some believe they have the talent and management to go global with their services? And, free active users on cellphones are not subscribers paying money.

[ApocalypseShadow]

If that's you disagreeing brewin, it doesn't matter. They won't reach 3 billion and they don't have the knack to push 100 million any time soon. Pairing with Netflix won't push TV and movie watchers to play games when Netflix themselves can't even get them to play games.

You guys consistently believe Microsoft's next thing is the thing that will take over. It never does. Their parent company's wallet buying spree is the only thing that would take over. And that will never go over well of buying up the industry.

[darthv72]

If cloud faded, how are they adding more games each week/month? One X ran its course, it was discontinued like One S like PS4 like PS4 Pro... its a circle of life thing.

As for Kinect, it didnt fade it was killed once Mattrick was gone. Best decision ever, unless you were a fan then I feel bad for you.

[ApocalypseShadow]

Darth, power of the cloud and extra graphics power were a lot of things spewed by you guys. Crackdown, driveatars, and sea of thieves water was the result. No one cared and PS4 still ran over Xbox one and One x. That cloud power was meaningless.

Kinect was dead because Microsoft made no quality games to justify its existence and the forced bundling at launch. But you guys continue to make Don your scapegoat. PSVR proved its existence and is getting a sequel headset potentially better in every way over the first. See, Sony doesn't have to make excuses like you're doing. Even PS Move lives on through BC on PS5 over a decade later. Kinect can't be used at all on series x. But hey. Fastest selling peripheral right? Guinness book right?

So, the best decision was to drop the tech for consoles just like Microsoft partnered with multiple PC manufacturers but made no VR games for all those Windows headsets? But you'll still blame Don when it was Phil who was part of that and not Don who left a long time ago. Are you going to blame Don again?

Now, you guys talk up game pass, game pass, game pass. Because no one talks about Halo, Gears or Forza. Time and again, it's always this huge thing but turns out to be a mole hill. Puff pieces and influencers can't change the fact that Microsoft is not as popular worldwide. And even then, you'll regret it if 100 million or more are streaming with subscriptions over offline ownership. But I guess you need to find out for yourself. Just like we told you guys about paying for online.

[Hofstaderman]

How many people is going to renew their sub after playing these games?

[Auron]

I think if MS keeps aquiring studios and maybeadd a video streaming service with it/familyplans they def will get alot more new subscribers.

[Destiny1080]

in phils mind, its already at 100 million

[gold_drake]

difficult to say.

MS isnt rly offering a whole lot of variety of games.
sure, gamepass might have alot of different games, but it would be difficult to outline all of them to non-gamers or casuals.

Pachters "predictions" arent something we should take as face value, hes been dead wrong about alot of stuff.

there's also the cloud gaming nonsense for tvs etc. if you have the connection for it, sure. but who has? input lag and stuttering is still a problem lol especially if you wanna play at a reasonable resolution and framerate.

and even with Activision, their games are not everyones cup of tea, and theres also the reality of switching over to xbox consoles. not everyone wants or likes xbox.

im sure there will a rise in gamepass subs when their games hit the service, but i doubt it will stay that way.