How much can a next-gen console hope to sell at launch?

Many news websites ran a story last week on a report issued by NPD. One of the most interesting facts stated there was that 29% of core gamers plan to buy a new console at launch. Based on this report and many other numbers from console sales reports over the years, the article draws an interesting conclusion regarding next-gen's potential.

[Thepharaoh]

Depends on which one

[MysticStrummer]

...and how much.

I'm guessing it'll be $499 at the very most. It will sell ok at that price, but if it's $399 it'll be scarce. If it's $299, MS and Nintendo can start thinking about the gen after The PS4 Generation.

[TheRealHeisenberg]

Tons for $300 USD or less.

[clintagious650]

Price is the MAIN thing that will LEAD to SOLID launch numbers. The "Playstation" brand name is still a FORCE if u look at how bad the ps3 started out & look at where its at now. Pretty damn IMPRESSIVE for a console that launched a year late & was $200 more expensive then its MAIN RIVAL. Especially when 3rd party devs had trouble with the ps3 architecture & the rival was an easy transition for devs to develope for, ANY other company wouldve got left BEHIND including nintendo if they launched using ps3 architecture & $200 more expensive then the competition. This just shows u that brand name & quality exclusives MAKES a DIFFERENCE when your TRACK RECORD is CONSISTENT u will ALWAYS have GREAT SUPPORT from GAMERS no matter how BAD the SITUATION your put in.

[Gildarts]

They're still losing to the 360. A Brand which has only been around for 10 years and making name only 6 years versus onee that has been DOMINATING for 19 years. And not to mention they even had competition from Nintendo who has also been around for about 30 years. Even IF the 360 loses by a few million at the end of the current Gen. It will still be the real winner.

[MysticStrummer]

"Even IF the 360 loses by a few million at the end of the current Gen. It will still be the real winner."

I guess, if you want to focus on change in market share, which is odd given that they all start at zero when the next gen begins, and what happened the previous gen has little or nothing to do with what happens the next. We've seen Nintendo go from riches to (comparative) rags to riches in a few generations. Depending on what the 720 tech looks like, MS could end up with their small market share again. Either way I guarantee MS didn't plan to go from 1st in sales this gen to last, and they will end up last. Both consoles that launched after 360 will end up selling more.

[soxfan2005]

Just like MS can expect great support from gamers knowing that, since the start of 2012, MS has delivered more 85+ rated core games for 360 that aren't on PS3 than the other way around. Quality like that has elevated the Xbox brand name to new heights. Fans of other consoles have tried desperately to convince people that MS has abandoned the core gamer, but the facts are indisputable.

What's also pretty damn impressive is that the 360 didn't need TWO redesigns (with features REMOVED each time) and price cut after price cut to maintain it's sales. The 360 has chugged along consistently at prices only 25-33% less than it was at LAUNCH eight years earlier. Meanwhile, the PS3 has shaved over HALF of it's price in a year's LESS TIME.

[BitbyDeath]

360 didn't even basic HDMI when it first released, what could they possibly cut? The sound card?

[R_aVe_N]

Your blinders are completely on..... There is a reason you only have 1 bubble my friend.

[clintagious650]

The 360 launched for $299 & if u couldnt outsell the wii with a year head start at that price, thats NOT IMPRESSIVE at all.

[MagneticDeath2]

Not to mention launch 360, was $299, no hdmi, no hard drive. No wireless controller, no wifi, add price for adapter $99, no blu ray. Add price for live 7 yrs x $60 = $420. So $820 for a launch 360 thats still not up to par with a launch PS3.

[MysticStrummer]

"The 360 has chugged along consistently at prices only 25-33% less than it was at LAUNCH eight years earlier. Meanwhile, the PS3 has shaved over HALF of it's price in a year's LESS TIME."

PS3 also sold the same amount as 360, in a year's LESS TIME.

[Skynetone]

LOL Bill gates visits n4g

[Evil-snuggles]

I'm sorry to break this to you but PS3 sold a 1,000,000 and a half more consoles that Xbox 360 worldwide and over the next to 2 year's most analyst think it will
sale more than the Wii over a 100 million consoles yes the Xbox 360 made a lot of gained in the USA but not worldwide

[Sharingan_no_Kakashi]

If ps4 is 399 it'll prolly sell 10million in the first year. If it's 299 it'll prolly sell 15million. I'm hoping it's 299. It's a far less expensive console to manufacture than the ps3 was. And, with subscriptions like Plus and probably gakai backwards compatability, not to mention the revenue from game sales and accessories... I'm sure that they'll be making up for the loss.

[Gildarts]

I think the Nextgen PS4 and XBOX720 will break launch console records. Nintendo screwed themselves by going casual. Casuals do not tend to upgrade as fast as core gamers.That is If they're planning upgrade at all..

[N0S3LFESTEEM]

It'll be a sad day when Nintendo pulls out like sega did... Multiplat Mario games... I feel dirty just from typing that.

[Gildarts]

I feel dirty reading that.
I didn't mean to make it sound like that.

[N0S3LFESTEEM]

IT WILL SELL ONE BILLION UNITS... MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

http://24.media.tumblr.com/...

[jdktech2010]

They've sold one here (PS4) if killzone: shadow fall hits at launch (and has good mp like KZ3) and infamous hits in the launch window.

If it's only KZ:SF, then MS has a chance with me but either way I'm buying Watch Dogs and AC4 (only because it's pirates).

Infamous: Second Son, Killzone: Shadow Fall, Watch Dogs and AC4 is one hell of a strong launch window (also excited for Diablo 3 and Destiny to follow soon after). I doubt that's even half of what Sony is gonna bring at E3

I love me some Halo but I'm burned out on gears and atm Xbox doesn't have anything else that interests me (though I'm sure they'll bring a cool new exclusive or two to the game).

It's gonna be a fun second half of the year.

[Minute Man 721]

2 xboxes for me at launch and one ps4

[dangerousjo33]

x720 2mill UNITS sells 1st day at 350$ & on at 450$. PS4 2mill units first aswell one selling at 340$ & one at 450$ core gamers like me want next hd consoles more then ever b/c of such a long wait