Michael Pachter Thinks Project Scorpio Shouldn't Be Above $399; PS4 Pro Might be $349 by Christmas

Wedbush Securities Analyst Michael Pachter explains why a Project Scorpio priced above $399 would be "a problem" and foretells a price cut for PS4 Pro during the Holiday season.

[tyasia0]

All these people saying $399 are just serving up a recipe for disappointment.

[fenome]

Anytime you hear the word 'premium' from M$ you should be expecting to pay top dollar.

[UltraNova]

In all honesty I beleive they[MS] received more than enough feedback since last E3 to know that anything above the 400 dollar mark will make it really hard to compete with Playstation, unless they have COD, GTA etc locked for a year(aint happening).

They have to sell at a loss (400-450 max)and bring lots of killer games at launch or risk having another xb1 all over again.

Edit

We can talk about power all day long but as long as MS doesnt deliver on the games front, they can throw all the teraflops in the world at it and it will not even make a dent.

[DJStotty]

I remember when the 360 elite was regarded as a premium console by microsoft. That wasnt more than 399 so your logic is flawed.

[fenome]

^ both good points, you're probably right too, anything above that $400 sweet spot wouldn't be a good idea.

[bouzebbal]

@DJStotty:
you have snots sitting in your brain maybe, Stotty.
Are you comparing a 250HDD upgrade and a change in color to a complete re engineering? And you dare saying other's logics are flawed?
Just wow..

[freshslicepizza]

who knows, most thought switch would be $250 but its $50 more than expected. $499 is the threshhold i would think because this will be a much more substancial upgrade than the ps4 pro was. the cpu, ram, many things will be a lot more powerful.

if people are willing to pay $400 or more for psvr or even $1200 for thrive then whats the problem here when this will have A LOT more software?

[fenome]

@moldybread

Exactly. It's not a problem, it's just that I think people should put their price expectations more realistically. They want to play AAA games at native 4K at 60fps but they only want to pay like $400 for it, I mean the Elite controller was $150 and that's just for one controller.

I'm not saying people aren't going to buy it if it's more expensive, I just don't think people should set a magic number in their head until it's official so that they don't set themselves up for disappointment.

[freshslicepizza]

microsoft shouldnt hold back just to hit the $399 price otherwise you end up what sony did and made a ton of compromises. people spend upwards of $1000 for one videocard, i think $500 wont be a problem if the upgrade is substancial here.

youll see, many will try and hush the hype for scorpio but deep down they will want one.

[thisismyaccount]

Yep, freshly minted in perfect condition - dollar bills!

$399 would be a megaton tbh (with 6Tflops), but maybe they have to tone it down, to keep the price/temps low? I simply can not see, how AMD can put a 6TFLOP die-gpu within an apu (incl. cpu+cache etc) and keep it as small as possible all at 28nm? or lower. Microsoft is most likely going a different route this time, them stating that the console trad. are over and something new was required.

[dcbronco]

Just how many premium products does Microsoft have. You're not looking at intentions. Microsoft wants to sell as many Xboxes as possible. They are trying to sell Surface because as we move to more mobile devices they have more competition from IOS and Android. With Studio it's price to limit sales. If they wanted to really sell it they don't pass around the design for others like HP to release their version a week later.

It will be $399 because that is the console launch price. It might take a slight loss in the beginning but most have ridiculous ideas of cost. We see that every generation. Most thought PS4 and One would cost $600 based on specs. Look back at comments, and most of the same people still probably haven't learned from that mistake. Every clue needed to know cost aren't that high have been on this site many times.

[fenome]

I'm not saying one way or another, I'm just saying that it's better to be ready to spend $500 and then be excited when it's $400 rather than to expect $300 and then find out it's $400. You know what I mean? I have no idea how much it's going to be.

I'm well aware that they make way more money on software than hardware, but the exact same software is available on the X1 and S so I don't think they're going to be willing to sell it at a loss when they already have cheaper models available for different crowds.

Yes, the smart thing is to keep it $400 to stay competitive, but they already have cheaper models doing that. I would think that they're targeting this more towards the Xbox elite and the early adopters of 4K, and those people are more than willing to fork out the money. That's what I would do, if I was building a beast, then I'd make it a freaking beast.

I could be totally wrong about what it is though, who knows? I'm just some random dude on the internet, don't put too much stock into anything I say. Lol

[badz149]

@moldybread

"people spend upwards of $1000 for one videocard,..."

and there's a reason none of those cards are selling in the millions!

the pricing of the Scorpio is indeed a tricky one even for MS. the wait will be interesting. Sony has played their card and 399 is a pretty hard price to beat especially for Scorpio that is rumored to be using the new AMD architecture announced just recently. I'd say they are putting MS in a very hard place. there is no guarantee that the Pro will be 349 by then. it totally depends on the price of the Scorpio. that's the beauty of it. if the Scorpio is gonna be 499, I don't think Sony will lower their price as they would want to keep their profit high. only if MS is willing to make it 399 too, (very unlikely but who knows) then Sony will consider the 349 tag.

no matter what the situation gonna be, at the moment, Sony has the upper hand even over Nintendo Switch.

[TheCommentator]

Can you elaborate on the times you recall MS using the word premium?

I can't recall any examples myself, but if you're going to say the Elite controller, it's better and cheaper than a Scuf (so it's not top dollar), and from a cost vs. performance standpoint there's no better controller for the money. Also, the Elite seems to sell just fine at $150 so I doubt that a $400 to $500 console will have any problems selling either.

[Dasteru]

@fenome:

There is no such thing as a "sweet spot" in pricing unless the product is marketed towards a specific financial demographic. It will cost what it needs to cost to make MS a profit. Just because $400 is the max you are personally able/willing to pay, does not make it some sort of sweet spot in general.

[TheCommentator]

Dasteru, I think there is a sweet spot though in this case. Sony launched at $500-600 last gen, and struggled for the first few years until they cost the same as 360. MS also struggled horribly after the launch of the XB1 at $500 partly because the value/performance wasn't there for most consumers. Neo Geo never took off. Neither did 3DO. Price vs. performance/value. There definitely is a sweet spot because if their pricing doesn't fit within the pricing of the industry, it appears that history suggests that it gets left behind.

EDIT: It seems like $400 is the sweet spot. $500 for a 6tf machine might be a little high considering the 4.2tf Pro launched this year at $400.

[rainslacker]

Yeah, premium is code for expensive, or if it's "as seen on TV" then it's code for complete crap from china.

I think the $349 from PS4P is a reasonable prediction, but $399 is iffy on X1. $449 for a base model, $499 being more likely, and $499-599 for a "elite" model.

I think anything over $499 it will be dead in the water. While powerful by today's console standards, there is just a point that I think it isn't going to fly considering the competition.

If it's $399, then good for MS. It'll be quite impressive if they can pull that off.

[Tussin187]

Yeah it could or couldn't and that's what we are all waiting for especially the fanboys. If it's $400, then it will sell like hotcakes. Even at $450, it will do OK(starting to get to that fine line in pricing). At $500, it will sell but only to the diehards and may turn out like the current situation.

If MS decides to sell it at $400 then this place will be a bloodbath. Price is everything now days especially with the bipolar console gamers. If the wrong message starts to become viral, so to speak, then you're in trouble.

At $400 though, I would pick one up in a heartbeat. I know that fanboys can beat the "no games" drum but for someone like me it doesn't matter. I currently don't have an X1 so I will have plenty to choose from. And yes, there are games I want to play that are on X1. Fanboy goggles off.

Oh, and I could build a PC, but I really don't want to. So that's argument is out the way. So, I wish it's $400 but I won't be surprised if it's more. I'm hoping that MS drops the mic at E3. It would certainly makes things interesting. But we know if it is $400 the then fanboys will then revert back to the games argument. So it's a never ending battle. Yes, the games part can be argued and there is a point but for ME(noticed I said ME) it's not an issue.

I really am tired of all this speculation and hearing about this or that. I want to see the system, what it can do, and most importantly see the price. Then we can go from there. Oh MS, please show some NEW IPs PLEASE. YOU HAVE PLENTY TO CHOOSE FROM. I may be asking for too much but one can dream.

[Scatpants]

It's the same power as a rx 480 which is around $200 right now. $400 seems like a fitting price.

[IGiveHugs2NakedWomen]

$399 for Scorpio is wishful thinking. I do see PS4 Pro dropping to $349 by the Christmas holiday season.

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

I doubt it will be $400 unless they are willing to take a pretty good loss. The tech in it makes it so. I don't think the price matters that much as this is just an upgraded XB1 and not a new console. Doesn't have to sell millions out of the gate like the PS4 and XB1 did when they launched. Not every XB1 owner will be inclined to make the jump as they aren't missing out on anything besides better performance and graphics and VR. Something a bit bigger than the XB1S splash that happened this past year is what should be expected and I think it can can be achieved at $450 or $500 if they do the marketing it right.

[OB1Biker]

If look at what's happening with the PS4 slim and Pro most people buy the cheapest console as long as it can play the same games. For that reason I think XB1S is still going to be the xbox best seller for a while and Scorpio a more pricey console for limited hardcore market...for a while.

Edit. I mostly agree with what you said, for what it's worth, except for I'm not sure it's going to make a bigger 'splash' than the XB1S given its not for mass market in a similar way. It may pick up pace later just like I think the Pro is going to pick up pace in the next few months.

Edit 2
Tbh I haven't got a clue either but I can't be worse than Pachter, can I? ;)

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

Yeah, it's true that most will go with the cheaper option by default. That's why I said 'if they do the marketing right'. We'll see come fall. I don't think Scorpio "must" be $400 or else. They just have to show it's worth. Anything above $500 prices you out the market though, in my opinion.

[corroios]

399 with some kind of zen cpu and vega gpu and 12 gigas of ram? Ok, if microsoft want to lose more 100 to 200 in each console sold. Did anyone looked at the tech of the ps4 or xbox one? None was new and they went with 399

[BizarroUltraman]

Remember Xbox One was $499.

[fenome]

The elite controller was also like $150, and that's just for one controller. I just think people shouldn't get a number in their head yet, if they wanna play Gears/Halo at native 4K with solid frame rates they should be expecting to pay for it as well.

[vikingland1]

@fenome
"I just think people shouldn't get a number in their head yet"

I agree , take the Nintendo Switch for example. One week before the presentation there were leaks saying it would be $250.00,, well it is $300.00 and everybody hates the price. It has already had a negative response from alot of people.

All I can say is if it's affordable for the majority of consumers it will help it alot. I also think that $400.00 is all the majority of consumers would say is affordable, anything more is for enthusiast's.

[Angeljuice]

PS3 was initially sold at an estimated $241.35 loss per unit, so it isn't infeesable. Having said that, the 360 was always in the black so it certainly isn't a given.

[Moonman]

Pac Man has spoken ya'll.

[ninsigma]

It would be a damn good price considering its claimed specs but due to tech that's only releasing this year being included I struggle to see it happening. I'd say 499 euro at best but could go up to 599 euro. That is unless they have some software techniques like the pro does to get more out of the system than is on paper, then it could be cheaper but by all of what MS has said, it sounds more like they're packing in some really good tech rather than going the software route. Not long till E3 but I do hope they show us before hand.

[MasterCornholio]

I doubt it will be 399$ if it's supposed to be a premium real 4K VR experience.

[Fishy Fingers]

Don't see why they can't price it similar to the Pro. With the extra year that 'new' hardware in the Scorpio probably isn't far off when the Pro was developed (component wholesale prices).

Still, if they include a UHD drive etc it might bump up the price but they managed to avoid that with the XB1 S.

It's not 4K VR. It'll merely supports existing HMDS (Vive/OR) or 4K. But I doubt they'll be much VR promotion with its hype already nose diving.

[Angeljuice]

It's not using the Pro's chipset, it is brand new tech. It won't have a big price drop in new tech in one year.

There's no way it costs the same as the pro did to produce after just one year. Not a chance in hell.

[Fishy Fingers]

Far off = the same does it? Well you and I can guess all we want. Neither of us knows squat, difference being I try and make it clear I don't (see: probably).

It's not 'brand new' tech it'll be built on an existing AMD API and modified like all the recent systems, often using current hardware is as cost effective to produce as prolonging outdated manufacturing components. The mini nes being case in point, vastly overkill to play its software but cheaper to make than weaker hardware.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[pyroxxx]

Price is the least of my concern,.. it is complete redundancy of the system in the first place.

[marquisray]

Scorpio day one for me

[vega275]

Same here

[Artemidorus]

Michael doesn't have a clue.to what he is talking about.

[Utalkin2me]

The irony in this comment.

[Artemidorus]

That's your opinion, truth is it's going to cost more.

Get the wallet out millenial.

[Utalkin2me]

Lol he still doesnt get it.......

[ShadowKnight]

He has a clue and I can almost guarantee it will be over $399

[Artemidorus]

No it won't.

[ShadowKnight]

Yes it will 😂

[Ceaser9857361]

399 for Scorpio, if true then MS is bearing a huge loss in making the console and i hope they back it up with games and new IPs... i am expecting anything around 499 $ .. but 399 will be a game changer, Hope MS dont screw it up..

[ifrit_caress]

Another prediction from another guy with nearly zero credibility in the gaming industry.

[Rhythmattic]

He's sort of right.... It shouldn't be above $399... If MS reallly want to make some waves that is....

[NohansenBoy]

There's no way this thing's going to be 4k 60fps or maybe even 30fps capable and $400 without major loss on each unit sold.

[il-JumperMT]

Really? I said this months ago and I didnt get paid. Anyone with IQ above 10 could reason those prices.

Keyword is SHOULD. Scorpio will probably be more expensive, but there is no way MS can sell it if PS4 Pro drops by 50$, which is quite common to do when competition releases another product.

[zivtheawesome]

so... 599 scorpio and 299 ps4 pro by christmas (as pachter is always wrong).

[YEP414]

You hit it on the money 600

[BizarroUltraman]

Scorpio will survive the price if Microsoft shows its worth it. And if not Good Luck!

Maybe there will be multiple skus w/ $399 low end. And seeing as you can preorder Im gonna get the most expensive sku.

[Gwynbleidd]

399 would be with a bigger loss IMO. The expected Vega/Ryzen tech APU will be no high-end hardware but won't be cheap nonetheless. I would expect a price around 499.
But the console is just the enabler to buy software, where the real profit is. MS could be willing to go in with aggressive hardware prices and take a loss they can even out with game and accessory sales.

I personally would prefer if MS threw in a 8-10TF GPU, 12 GB RAM and 8 Ryzen CPU-cores on a custom SOC (downclocked APU?) and charge 599 bucks. Buying a silent-PC with these specs for the living-room and the same new tech will be around twice the price. And since the scorpio will be a premium product and the One S remains the mainstream device I see all bases covered for now.
The 6 TF Scorpio will be lower end tech by 2018, so we would need another console soon to keep up with the tech-evolution.
The PC high-end Vega GPU will have more than 12.5 TF and the Vega dual GPU will sit around 20 TF in 2017, in 2018 the numbers will raise further. Same with NVIDIA. Clearly that is premium hardware far beyond 1000 bucks but the horsepower-numbers will climb quickly.

But on the other hand MS could offer a $349-499 console update in small time-frames within the same Win10 environment to keep up with the tech and offer customers the choice whether they are more enthusiast-like, craving for the highest console-specs, or if they are satisfied with medium settings in games and go for the cheaper hardware.
It will be interesting to see how the plans are.

[Npugz7]

I'm guessing 400 to 450 for the Scorpio. They can't go any higher or Sony will bury them!

[ShadowKnight]

Sony still will bury them imo. Maybe next gen Microsoft will have a chance.

[YEP414]

Microsoft not competing with Sony ..they doing they own thing

[Angeljuice]

Only because they already lost the race and went off to sulk in a corner.

[YEP414]

It's go be between 500 and 600...its go be premium product. The new Nintendo is 300.00. If people want an Xbox box the s is out same games... I believe 600. . It's not a debut generation console as the Xbox go play the same games..... 600 watch...

[Tapani]

I would think that they will come out with $400 thinking that they can overpower PS4 Pro with whatever better specs they can get in there from their AMD deal. They probably will finalize specs in the two months and get it out by Nov - Dec 2017 to make it in terms of manufacturing. I'm sure they can squeeze 5-10 extra frames with some added visuals with variable resolution upscaled to 4K, but I have a feeling the base PS4 will stay as the platform of choice for years to come for many devs, particularly in Japan. Even some of the exclusives or top AAA 3rd party titles do not have a Pro patch, which frustrates the hell out of me and probably many new Pro owners who think "Imagine if this would get a 4K patch...." while playing.

[Kokyu]

I think pack is wack on this one. Those hoping Scorpio will be anything less than 500-600 are also going to be disappionted I think. I dont think Scorpio is just an upgrade Xbone, if that was the case it wouldnt take an extra year to have it come out. To me if Scorpio is sporting a new GPU, CPU, RAM and hard drive then its a new machine and a next gen system, the ability to still play xbone games doesnt make it just an upgrade because in that case the Ps3 was just an upgraded PS2 which wasnt the case.

Scorpio to me just feels like MS realizing they screwed up this gen, xbone has no chance of really catching up to Ps4 because the weak GPU and so on to the next gen they go leaving Sony to play catch up. Which is actually good for Sony, they get to see if people will actually pay 5-600 for a console and if or how large the 4k market is now and they can then take their time and make Ps5 a monster. Seems like a win win for them and consumers.

[XXanderXX]

WTF is everyone love with this 399 price tag never seen such desire from people for everything in the gaming industry be priced at 399.99. Seem like they don't care that money needs to be recouped by companies and not every company wants to lose cash cause 399.99 is all you can afford or think it should be priced at that point .
Bit of insight if you can't afford the hobby then you should not be trying to experience it. Tire of this BS cry .

[rainslacker]

Dunno if everyone is infactuated with that number, that's just the number that it's likely to be accepted by the mainstream market.

If MS wants to market this to the hardcore market exclusively to start, then yeah, paying more is a reasonable thing. But they have to deliver a product that people feel is worth that price. $399 is a price that people can justify more, and for the vast majority of people that buy consoles, that number is actually at the $250 or lower mark.

[XXanderXX]

See your point ,but its tiresome to constantly here the whole spiel every time a new product is being released no matter what it is .

[_LarZen_]

Even Phil Spencer has said Scorpio will cost more as it's a premium product. Probably around $499-$599.

[Destiny1080]

399 is a good price hopefully it will be 349 or lower

[medman]

This guy again? He's been wrong so often, it boggles the mind why he still makes "predictions". I think he's getting his "predictions" from a Magic 8 Ball.

[medman]

"According to Pachter, the only thing Microsoft has going for them is that 4K TVs are becoming what LED TVs became a few years ago, with LCD TVs disappearing from the market."

Let me get this straight....this Pachter character doesn't seem to understand that LED TV's ARE LCD TV's, but still is making predictions even though he seemingly doesn't understand the simple things about tech, and has been wrong as often as he has been right. I don't get it. Now perhaps he just misspoke regarding the led/lcd analogy, but he seems to "misspeak" an awful lot.

[spawnwavemedia]

People are hard to please now a days. True 4K is not a cheap resolution to game at. I figured if Scorpio is done right it would be 499.99 on launch day. If it's less than that Microsoft is either taking a big loss on each console, or concessions are being made with the hardware.

[meganick]

You can expect Scorpio to be $499 to $599 USD.

[GoodnessGreatness]

Whatever the price is, the console wouldn't appeal if the software is bad. PS4 Pro will be a better choice.

[Hardiman]

Yeah $399. seems to be pie in the sky thinking. If it's what MS is spouting then it will cost quite a bit more.

Edit: Will need games.

[shiva1]

Who gave birth to this Patcher.... And who is paying for his predictions?

Can somebody tell him to chill please. He is saying the same shit again and again.