A look back on my previous PS4 Predictions: I am better at predictions than Pachter

So here we are. The PS4 has been announced and I would like to see how my predictions panned out compared to Pachter's 240fps prediction. Now, I've made it known through various comments how much I despise the way that he dominates the news cycle with every misguided, contentious little thing that he says but I digress. Let us continue and be done with it.

You will find my blog here. http://n4g.com/user/blogpos...

Just a couple of simple predictions to see if I was accurate in anything compared to Pachter.

1. The share function is a game changer.

I personally believed that the share function would be a game changer for Sony and I believe I was correct in my estimation for them to focus on tightening up and foster a community based on sharing video files to friends and on various social media. I have to admit that I was surprised about the extent of how far they were willing to go in terms of achieving that goal.

By fostering a dedicated gamer community with profiles etc, the ability for "backseat" gaming whereby they touched upon the possibility of multi-casting on Ustream with the possibility of allowing another user to take over from the user to get past a rough spot in a level. There is also the hint of a director mode where the backseat contingent can help (or hinder?) a player going through a level. Sony also seemed to have put in a greater impetus upon synergy by allowing the ability to connect with your content through any internet enabled device and the console will also recommend titles from your favourite genre or creator; based on the titles that you play.

2. The PSN will be free (with ADs)

As of yet, there has been no indication of ads being implemented on the PSN. However, if they want to make the fastest global network ever made; they will need a significant amount of investment for that to happen. I sincerely doubt that all the features that have been presented will all be free without a string attached. Also, the Gaikai service which would allow users to play PS1, PS2 and perhaps even PS3 games on the PS4 won't be free. It brings me to my next point on backwards compatibility.

3. There will be no backwards compatibility for the PS4.

Sony has claimed that Gaikai is advanced enough for the ability to emulate PS1-PS3 games but here's the kicker. It's going to be released incrementally and I have my doubts on whether or not Gaikai will work on the current networks that most people are on. Unless they've developed Gaikai in such a way that anyone with a PS4 can connect with no problems; I remain unconvinced that (digital) backwards compatibility is possible. Perhaps it'll allow for selected PS1-PS3 games to be bought and played on the cloud but until E3 comes; this is all just conjecture on my part. It would've also been nice if they used this streaming technology for the conference in question but I'll just count that as just a missed opportunity.

4. The Vita will be getting some serious support.

This was Vita's last chance and attempting to make it an integral part of the experience for the PS4 gives it as good a shot as anything can at this point. The ability to use social media on the Vita puts it in a unique position where people can post challenges, check leaderboards, with the ability to cross-play with PS4 games like Krack demonstrated. With the price drop as well, the Vita could make a comeback and become a device that complements the PS4 very well and vice versa.

5. The graphics/games that will be shown will be first-party releases, something random and Watch Dogs.

Nailed it. Killzone-Shadowfall made an appearance but whether or not the trailer will be indicative of the actual product at hand is a different story. If Aliens:Colonial Marines taught us anything, it was that demos can be downright misleading. There was a couple of random things that snuck up such as Capcom's demonstration of their new in-house engine "Panca Rhei" with their demo Deep Down with cutscenes (no gameplay) Jon Blow's new first-person puzzler The Witness , with a clear nod to Myst and Media Molocule's demonstration of using the PS Move for content creation which I found impressive even though it was merely a tech demo.

Quantic Dream's David Cage waffled on about how technology is important for moving the industry forward by showing the amount of polygons that have increased from The Nomad Soul up to Beyond:Two Souls. Then he showed a floating head which showed the level of expression that was now capable with the PS4. Thought that Watch Dogs would make an appearance and seemed to hit all the right notes with the audience. Though I genuinely wonder if it was PS4 footage or if it was high-end PC graphics for most of the games that were on show.

Since I've clearly shown that even an average gamer can predict the future better than Pachter; can we stop giving him an audience?

[BiggCMan]

All of the information in your first post that you linked, was already going around the internet as rumors, so you basically just used those. Did you honestly predict those on your own without other sources? Come on now. You didn't predict that stuff, you just agreed with what you heard about the rumors, to be true.

[Crazyglues]

Yeah I'm going to agree with you BiggCMan that's not really predicating, more like going with what was out on the net..

I think I did a better job at predicting how the system graphics would look - Just watch the video at the bottom of my post, I think I nailed it - http://bit.ly/14YIe1C

But it's a good pick of the overall things that were being said.. so overall good job..

But if you want to really impress me - name the games that will be shown at E3 ?

What will be PS4 Launch Titles..?

What's the exact price of the System ?

Will PC Gamers finally be able to play with PS4 gamers.. ?

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[MacDonagh]

The games shown at E3? Oh boy. I think that Konami will show off their Fox Engine since they were conspicuous by their absence. They've actually not been around for most of this gen since most of their resources seem to be tied into making their own in-house engine.

While other companies have announced their own in-house engines for the next-gen like Epic with their latest Unreal iteration, Capcom with the Panca Rhei and Square-Enix with their Luminous Engine; I believe that Konami will announce a Metal Gear for the PS4 as an exclusive. I also think they will show footage from their own IPs with what is possible with the Fox Engine like Pro Evolution Soccer, Castlevania or Silent Hill for example.

Other games that would get shown would be the various titles that were announced on E3 but at a playable state perhaps. Star Wars 1313, Watch Dogs, Witcher 3, Planetside 2, new FF, Destiny. Perhaps a couple of PC ports from the indie marketplace as well to complement Infamous:Second Son and Drive Club. Going by how decently DC Universe has done on PS3; someone could announce an MMO on the PS4. Going by how positive the fella from Blizzard was about the prospects for the PS4, the possibilities are all out on the open. Also Media Molocule will announce something along the lines of what they demonstrated with their tech demo.

I am a bit perplexed by the lack of EA at the conference. Surely it would've been an ideal time to share their own ideas on the PS4 but perhaps they are saving their announcements for E3.

What I expect to be in the launch line-up?

Fifa 14/Madden 14, Crysis 3, Fight Night game(?), Watch Dogs, Killzone 4 (confirmed), Drive Club, Tiger Woods 15 (based on yearly updates), Knack (really interested in that game), LBP 3, The Witness (maybe not), one or two 2K games and The Last Guardian. The last one is what I seriously wish for more than any other game. Probably won't make launch but I fully expect an announcement of some kind to take place.

The exact price for the system is hard to quantify. Given the amount of features that the system presents, I would be hesitant to put it down to a pricepoint, due to the economy doing the topsy-turvy and currencies devaluing all the time without even adding in the complications of import duty or VAT. I believe that there will be two SKUs. One will be reasonably priced but lacking in some areas, e.g hard drive size, peripherals, etc. The other will be the full version with all the widgets that go along with it.

Babby model: $399-499
Pro model: $599-650 with year's subscription.

It's possible. The PS4 looks like it could be capable of delivering that if Sony wants to build the fastest global network ever made. Though, it may put PS4 users at a disadvantage to compete in an online deathmatch for instance, the scope for MMO games to appear on the PS4 is there.

[Crazyglues]

Very nice my friend, I like this it was a good read...

I disagree on Crysis 3 that game is already out, it won't make sense to release that for PS4, when it won't really be made for PS4 and I don't think it sold that well either..

But most of the other things you said sound reasonable so I guess we will see.. Nice Read..

And yes I get the whole better predication then Pachter just by doing some research.. I agree 100% (but you should have stated that in the blog so people would understand that) -by not having that it made them judge this wrong

again it was a good Read... Nicely done

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[MacDonagh]

The thing that I tried to do was to base my simple predictions on the various rumours that ranged from the absurd to the downright obvious with some concrete sources. I merely only wished to show that with some solid research; any gamer is better at gauging what to expect in the future than Pachter. I wish I was a little clearer on that part and I apologise profusely. I was incandescent with rage when I read Pachter's 240 fps comment that I lost my mind and failed to properly convey my disdain in regards to Pachter and what it was that provoked such a reaction.

I'm not a tech guy by any means but when someone asks me about what type of architecture their PC runs on or how many teraflops can the GTX 660 do; I don't provide an opinion or any statement on something that is outwith my experience. I would tell them to ask a person with experience in that field. With Pachter, he says things that will get the biggest amount of attention with a streak of contentiousness that I personally find abhorrent.

Apologies again but I did say that the share function was a game changer. I didn't expect them to go as far as they did in terms of announcing the ability to multi-cast with UStream or to allow backseat gaming but the share function is a game changer in the regard that the PS4 seeks to form a dedicated gamer community which is a great thing.

The PSN being free with ADs is one that I came up with myself when I looked at the patent for "Advertisement scheme for use with interactive content" which you can find here. http://www.google.co.uk/pat...
Since Sony are wanting to make a profit and with ad revenues set to double by 2016 according to this article by Forbes that can be found here. http://www.forbes.com/sites...

I believe that it's most likely that Sony will look at it as a feasible option. You can get rid of the ads by upgrading your membership and either way; Sony will make money on it IF they choose to do it.

I did predict that Quantic Dream would make an appearance to present something ostentatious and I wasn't disappointed. Killzone showed up; as did Watch Dogs but I was disappointed that MG: Ground Zeroes didn't make an appearance. I think Konami will show up at Sony's E3 conference and show the capabilities of the Fox Engine.

[Crazay]

That's pretty much like saying you won a gold medal in the Special Olympics dude.

***High 5***

[MacDonagh]

I'm not special? T_T

***High 5***

[TheFirstClassic]

My uncle's goat is better at predictions than Patcher.

[Ingram]

...You want some gummy bears or something?

To be honest, I like predicting too.
I've been saying for almost a year that the PS4 would be a beast, a mighty CAL/OpenCL GPGPU, while everybody was saying the opposite "it will be a small upgrade", "they will follow the wii path", "don't expect much better graphics"

Well I'm calling it now: what we saw lately is NOTHING compared to what the system will be capable of.

Regardless of the CPU limitations, expect graphics comparable to high end PC setups except for performance; most games will be Vsynced 24p-30p. Expect 60fps rereleases of recent games though.

[Crazay]

0.o

You have gummy bears?

[pixelsword]

No kidding crazay: don't say you have gummy bears if you're not going to share, Ingram. :(

:)

[s45gr32]

Ok yeah Michael Pachter sucks at predicting but your predictions were based on the edge article which nailed the reveal of the ps4; however, you were spot on in regards to kill zone 4 and watchdogs along with no backwards compatibility. Sadly I have no gummy bears to give out.