Microsoft in Japan is always a wildcard. Who knows if the company will make a big push in Japan this year or scale things back to focus on North America and Europe where its exclusives tend to actually sell. Oh, sure, every once and a while Microsoft releases something (Blue Dragon) in Japan that moves a boat load of consoles, but what will it be this year?
Halo 3: ODST will be getting a worldwide release this week. Will Microsoft try to pimp Halo in Japan again or is it time to let it go? I'm guessing that the game will probably be playable on the show floor, but don't expect a massive showing. Beyond that, there aren't any major exclusives that I can think of that would do big business in Japan. Splinter Cell: Conviction probably doesn't stack up against Metal Gear Solid there... just a hunch.