Sony Will Beat Microsoft next-gen

I've been doing a lot of thinking about this and I have come to the conclusion that Sony will beat Microsoft. I will explain. Microsoft and Sony are the ones in direct competition. They are after the same fan base. They both take similar approaches. Both have similar gaming experiences. The difference is Microsoft has no clear path.

Sony continue to put out plenty of core first party exclusives. Microsoft however seem to think that instead of wanting a proper Banjo you want some horrible car hybrid platformer. The patches they fill are filled with mainly Halo, Forza and Fable. A side of Gears is added but these are the same sequels that consistently get pumped out. So instead of putting their resources to much needed new IPs (although they have 4 new IPs in the works now) they would rather put resources into Kinectimals, Kinect Sports, Kinect Joyride you get the idea. Its basically Kinect. So that has to raise a big question. How many of these four new IPs are for the core?

But that brings me to another big question, why are you suddenly doing new IPs now? Even Nintendo trademarked The Last Story towards the end of Wii's life cycle (trademark means they own it). It seems to me Microsoft throw stuff at the wall to see what sticks when they launch and then roll with what did for the rest of the generation. They write contracts on DLC for timed exclusivity and use third parties to fill the massive holes which they should be doing. This is where the key point comes in. Its these mistakes that will cost Microsoft next generation. These mistakes are what is showing Microsoft don't have the experience in the hardware market that Sony or Nintendo do.

This will be Microsoft's third big launch so they need to get it right. But the problems they have set for themselves going from this generation into the next will make it more difficult then people seem to realize. For one Sony will not be giving them the luxury of over pricing themselves or being late to the party so they can cruise it through. Call of Duty DLC cannot last you forever. The series will fall eventually as the shooter market collapses. Then Microsoft have admitted they are putting online charges into XBL again but this is a big mistake. The only thing XBL has over PSN in my view is cross game chat. You can almost guarantee PS4 will have that this time since Vita has it. Why bother paying subscription fees for the price of a whole game (I am in the UK so £40) when you can get it for free on Playstation? At least consider lowering the price.

But this is the biggest obstacle. Kinect. They are heavily focusing their resources towards motion controllers. Smart Glass being their latest example. The only reason this hasn't effected them now is because they have constant releases of multiplatform games. If those games vanished the core gamer would have jumped ship long ago. Having Kinect as your primary focus is going to hurt you. Nintendo have a fan base that like the innovation they put out. They make different games to the others and those types of schemes work for them and help them stand out. With Xbox it is setting up for fan base alienation. Microsoft seem to be focusing so much on trying to be the best of both worlds they are not noticing the rug is about to be pulled underneath them and make them fall.

If you are doing new IPs this is great but give me one reason to believe that in 2 - 3 years time it will still be a focus and you aren't just going to pump sequels of what was successful. Stop writing contracts for timed exclusives and put the money towards proper exclusives. Drop the online charges. But most importantly of all DROP KINECT! Forget it. It is the fastest selling consumer electronics device which is a great achievement but it is also paving the way for losing respect. I will repeat, the reason this works for Nintendo is because they make different games to you. They have game ideas planned around the controllers before they even launch. Actually they have worked on dual screen as far back as Gamecube. Something like Kinect just doesn't work for games like Halo, Forza or Fable (actually its debatable if it works for games as a whole) and its time to stop forcing it down people's throats and accept that.

As stated before Sony are not giving you the luxury you had last time. They will come hard and fast. Your games target the mature gamers but Kinect targets casuals. Your games have been built around realistic games. You cannot suddenly add something that works for Nintendo and expect it to work for you. If Microsoft make the mistake of making Kinect their primary focus the core gamers will run right under their feet and won't look back. Sony will continue focusing on the core and if they get it right then all your hard work in building the Xbox brand will have been for nothing. Third parties won't be there to carry your system in the 720's early life cycle like they are now so if you lose your fans it will be your own fault.

The image you crafted will make it virtually impossible to get both sides. You cannot get casuals without this type of thing and you cannot keep people who play your games by putting such heavy emphasis on Kinect. It shows that Microsoft is the least experienced of the three and unless they clear their path they will lose.

It is one or the other Microsoft. Make your choice.

[Valenka]

"Sony will beat Microsoft next-gen."

Is that an opinion or are you trying to give us that with implied facts? I have no doubts that Sony will be a top contender, but no one knows for sure what Sony or Microsoft has up their sleeves, so statements like this are rather unjustified, in my opinion.

[darthv72]

I think they got it right with the 2nd release. In fact, looking through the console window into the past we can see that pretty much every major console release that made it to a 2nd outing was a greater success than their first.

When going from the popularity of a successful 2nd into a 3rd is where things take a turn. Not saying a 3rd outing flat out sucks but something happens and consumers are either content with their 2nd system or have desired a taste for something different and so the success of a 3rd isnt up to par.

Atari's 2600 was 'technically' their 2nd system (after PONG) and most successful of the lot as compared to their follow-ups of the 5200, 7800 and even the Jaguar.

Sega and the Genesis hit it big after the Master system, but fell short with the Saturn and gave up on the Dreamcast so soon after it launched.

Sony had a much greater success with their PS2 even though their PS1 was no slouch either. The PS3 will likely reach PS1 numbers but reaching PS2 numbers is also possible given the length Sony will go to keep it relevant over the next several years.

Nintendo had a hit on their hands with the NES and lost some market share to Sega when Genesis came out but they fought back with the SNES to gain 'some' of that back. The N64 didnt fare as well and the GC was even worse and yet both were great platforms on their own. The release of the Wii marked their 5th entry and return to huge numbers so the Wii-u would be akin to the SNES (if we looked at it as the wii=NES).

MS's XBOX was their 1st and while they pulled the plug on it rather soon....it was a risky move that paid off. The success and popularity of the 360 was substantial when compared to their 1st. Their 3rd could face the same challenges all other 3rd console releases have. Meaning that while being superior in tech than the previous, consumer demand can change to something else.

We just have to wait and see.

[unchartedxplorer]

Oh yes the "third curse". It happened with battlefield, it happened with uncharted, it happened with the Modern Warfare series. If Microsoft suffer the third curse it won't be the first and it definitely won't be the last to suffer it.

[shutUpAndTakeMyMoney]

If MS does the same thing as this gen sony will beat them. We already know sony is restructuring and getting over mistakes going into next gen. MS is making mostly kinect games and are at the top of their game. For those who like kinect anyway.

I always thought the company who focuses more on casuals would do better. True for nintendo but not true for MS.

[miyamoto]

Given M$ last two performance I come to a conclusion that they do not know or understand what they are doing. Nothing they do show any real passion, or drive to push gaming to new heights.

They are just in this for the money.

If Sony and Nintendo were as big as they are or like Apple and Google or in equal footing in terms of finances Xbox could have suffered the same fate of Bing, Windows Phone 7, Zune.

If they are a gaming company where are their own original games? None except for a few "bankable" franchises. Their creativity and innovation is zero.

They are just free loading or cashing in on what is popular they do not make their own path like Sony or Nintendo does. They are like traditional politicians that rely on more money to make more money not bringing anything new to the industry.

[dcbronco]

It's funny how silly ideas can grow and grow. People no longer seem to be able to put two and two together. They call Microsoft money hungry and use the money symbol instead of an S in MS. But then they believe MS will focus on low return casual games instead of the hardcore games that bring in the money. No Kinect game brings in the profits of Halo or Gears. So it's ridiculous to think MS will concentrate on Kinect.

What they will do though, is use the Xbox platform to finance the development of a technology that will have, and has had, implications that stretch far beyond gaming. MS has moved most of their hardcore to the next platform while still pushing proven products and casual games this generation.

Looking at it as far as success, MS has made far more money in gaming than Sony has over the last few years. So I'm not sure how anyone can say MS has failed with their planning and Sony has faired better. Sony is on the verge of bankruptcy and is selling off assets with a junk bond stock rating in some circles. Not sure in what part of the world that is considered successful.

For a company that doesn't know what they're doing, they seems to be growing by leaps and bounds each year. And they have learned from their mistakes. Oh, and Bing is slowly gaining market-share. Remember how long it took for people to make inroads on Explorer. Same thing applies.

MS is new to console gaming. They started in 2002. They have brought new things to the industry. APUs, more efficient GPUs. APUs will bring the cost of cost of consoles down. Unified Shaders are standard now. Comfortable controllers. They were the ones that were able to bring on-line gaming to where it is now.

This silly hate for one company or the other says more about the hater than the company. Both MS and Sony are trying to make money. They do it in differently, but the competition has been good for gamers. Would you prefer just Sony and Nintendo and a still $400 PS3?

[Godmars290]

If Kinect becomes a "forced option" which is always on and MS using that to gather information becomes an issue, one damage-control ads can't fix, then there's going to be trouble.

More so and especially if hackers get into them.

@Valenka:
But that's the thing: regardless of defending fans, Kinect has become a weak-point in MS's mindset. If Kinect 2.0 doesn't work any better than 1.0 its going to be sitting in the system doing nothing - but watching you.

[thorstein]

I would have sworn, somewhere deep in my comments, that I mentioned that the Motion Control model was best done by Nintendo; SONY was developing it but not making it the "be all" and MS would make a mistake by focusing so much on Kinect.

I hope MS backs off on the Kinect only perspective. If they can't then there is Steambox.

[EffectO]

Somebody still lives in 2005,I think...Sony,MS,Nintendo and nobody else

The harsh reality is that that there are tons of new players around now and they directly or indirectly take large pieces of console pie on a daily basis.

Console wars were never core wars,PS2 for instance was full with casuals.

[maniacmayhem]

Don't really agree with this article because you seem to think that Sony will come hard out the gate and not MS for some reason.

And you are only basing it on what you perceive MS is doing now. I'm positive MS has heard the same criticisms you are stating which is why we have seen the articles of new studios and them secretly working on games that could potentially be new IP's.

You want them to drop Kinect because you personally don't like Kinect but Kinect has been a huge success and those Kinect games you hate have been some of the biggest sellers for MS. And if the rumors are true the next Kinect will work as originally intended and shown in the the early tech demos and from the many hacks we have seen on the net. Why drop it when it could finally have the power it desperately needed to enhance "some" games and give them the extra features that could better immerse a player?

"Microsoft seem to be focusing so much on trying to be the best of both worlds they are not noticing the rug is about to be pulled underneath them..."

What proof do you have for this statement?

"If you are doing new IPs this is great but give me one reason to believe that in 2 - 3 years time it will still be a focus and you aren't just going to pump sequels of what was successful."

You can put this statement and apply it to any of the other industry big names. How do we know that Last of Us won't have 4 sequels down the line or that Uncharted won't go up to 8 or 9. And don't even talk about Nintendo who's many franchises have already hit 5 or 6 in terms of sequels. Why even be upset about this?

"It is one or the other Microsoft. Make your choice."

This is probably why you are not in business yourself. You can't just have focus on one element "the core" and expect to prosper or grow as a company. You have to take chances and expand in other areas of the market. Every company does it, Sony, Nintendo, Apple, etc etc. You either grow or you flat line and die.

Edit:
Do you only get one bubble in your own blog posts? If so that sucks.

[Nicaragua]

Its way too early to tell. Personally i hope that MS pull something amazing out of the hat for the next Xbox - i dont think that will be the case though based on what i have seen of MS last few E3 events.

Go back to the vision of the original Xbox - a hardcore gamers console with games like Steel Battalion and its 50+ button controller, then you'll have my interest again.

[SuperLupe]

A long troll disguised as a blog.

[Captain Tuttle]

Ouch haha

It does seem like alot of wishful thinking though. "The shooter market collapses"? I'm not seeing it.

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

If it was the other way around you'd view it as "The truth disguised as the truth"...

[Captain Tuttle]

I think you're putting too much emphasis on Kinect, MS isn;t going to abandon the "hardcore"

[DragonKnight]

Except they pretty much have for at least 2 years now. If you can't see a fundamental shift in their priorities, you should look harder. The only ones catering to the core market on the 360 are 3rd party developers, and they release games multiplatform anyway so you can't really include them.

[Sleet]

errr newsflash....MS abandoned the hardcore about 2 years ago

[Godmars290]

By attempting, and largely failing, to make hardcore appealing titles like Steal Battalion and the Panzer Dragoon spiritual sequel - which for a $9-$15 download title is taking forever to release - aren't they doing worse than abandoning them?

I mean, SB fans wanted to revisit the original monster control-panel series but instead got an example of exactly why and how Kinect can mess up a game.

And the best way so far its worked best with the hardcore is as a voice command and gameplay enhancer, which is largely what the Move is: an option to play a game.

[Kevlar009]

I would expect MS to focus more on multi-media and online than power. Maybe have Kinect come with the system

Sony will be about power, MS about media, and Nintendo about gamepad

[NeverEnding1989]

SONY is the sick man of the console wars while M$ is the up and coming competitor. I predict a Xbox 720/Wii U tie (or very close) next gen while SONY will continue to fall.

In two gens from now I see M$ coming out on top.

[Karpetburnz]

GTFO troll.

[Yodagamer]

I think the only reason why sony didn't win this console gen until now is because they simply do not advertise. You can have a good product, but if no one knows it's good they will not buy it. It's simple sony needs to get it advertisements right this gen.

[MrBeatdown]

I don't think advertising played that big of a role. That seems more like something that would hurt games over hardware, where there's only a few choices that become obvious the second you step into a gaming section of a store.

I'd say it's the hardware that was the root of all their problems. It really killed their momentum early on. Sony has come a long way, but still, they've always been held back by the hardware.

The hardware required a higher price that slowed sales, and is still keeping it from selling for under $200, which is where the PS2 racked up the bulk of sales.

It made it difficult for developers, meaning PS3 more often than not got the short end of the stick in performance, and the difficult development even discouraged a few devs from doing PS3 versions of their games, giving Microsoft's exclusive line-up a boost in the process. Valve, for example.

And it kept Sony from catching up to Live. Things like cross-game chat just couldn't be done.

If the rumors are accurate, it looks like Sony's doing hardware right this time, so if they can just keep doing with the PS4 what they did with the PS3 in every other department, they'll be sitting pretty.

[dcbronco]

I also have to disagree with the idea that a console maker has to choose between casual and hardcore. As all devices converge, they are going to have to cater to a variety of members of a given market. I have friends that play Kinect with their kids and then shooters on-line. The whole family watches Netflix.

And the exclusives argument is maybe the dumbest argument made this generation. It neck and neck with MS is only about casual gaming. Blu-ray was a stupid decision. The added cost made the console more expensive than needed. The Cell too. Two things that should have been a huge advantage pushed Sony down to third place.

Blu-ray adoption has been slow. I know people believe it has been huge, but it really hasn't. It's still represents just a third or so of the disc market. More of the revenue market because it cost so much more and has bigger margins. The Cell was never what Sony thought it would be. It was supposed to be the CPU and GPU. But they realized that it wasn't strong enough for that. It's hard to get people to willingly move to a new architecture when it's not profitable to do so or there are no big advantages.

Those two things made Sony number three in gaming. Those two things killed their ability to do things in other divisions that would have made them a more profitable company. And all of the exclusives in the world did nothing to change that. MS moved up and are stronger than ever in gaming and with the infrastructure they have in-house now they will only get stronger.

Sony will be strong again. They realize their mistakes and have come back to reality. They are selling assets and shrinking to make themselves profitable again. Now it's time for their fans to do the same. Exclusives don't matter when you cost too much. Fanboys have scared a lot of people away from making an informed decision to buy a PS3. And you may have tricked Sony into making a lot of games that no one really wanted. Twisted Metal? Only fanboys wanted that. Exclusives may matter next generation when consoles will be more evenly priced and supported by developers. But this generation they were mainly money thrown away. Overly expensive exclusives that barely sold are not good for a company strapped for cash.

[Enemy]

Sony beat Microsoft last gen and this gen too. Obvious predictions are obvious.

[Kingdom Come]

*Looks at blog title, shakes head* Sigh.
This site's community has deteriorated into a bias pit of unsophisticated trolls, churning out opinion as fact. Basing arguments on rumours, worshipping Sony and immaturely brandishing Microsoft as money-grabbers with no respect for their communities.

When I first joined this site nearly 3 years ago, I was about 16 years old and yet still majoritively more open minded regarding the video game industry than most adult members of the site. It's laughable really, but quite tedious and frustrating that the site has become obsolete for enjoyable conversations regarding games, the comments section used to be a fairly funny place, now it's just plunged into unnecessary hostility, and what over? Who's console is better than the others? What difference does it make to yourselves?

This is why I love being a Multi-platform gamer. I highly anticipate information regarding both Microsoft and Sony's next gen platforms.

[peanut72]

Kinect is big with the family gamer - a much larger audience than the core gamer. Kinect is why Microsoft has won the home sales for consoles the last 24 months straight in the US. Kinect is why the Xbox 360 is steadily catching the Wii in worldwide sales. Kinect is not Microsoft's downfall, its their savior.