Like a man beating a dead horse I am going to write about the Tomb Raider deal. I am not a huge believer in writing about something that nearly every publication or users has already written about. But I feel one aspect of the deal is being overlooked; the one company that has the most to lose out in the deal is not Square Enix but Microsoft.
Microsoft is no stranger to buying timed/exclusive third party games. Throughout the early days of the Xbox 360 Microsoft bought up a lot of third party exclusives like Gears of War, Splinter Cell Conviction and Mass Effect [3]. Even though Mass Effect eventually made its way to the PS3 the rest stayed exclusive and for good reasons as they sold well enough [1][2][3]. I mainly put this success down to the 360 having a commanding market share in the USA and UK [4] as making a western friendly exclusive game would sell better on a system that held a controlling share of a western market in particular those games that appeal to the US market. The risks involved for both Microsoft and the third party studio wouldn’t have been that great and the data supports it with these three games selling mostly in the US [1][2][3]. The PS3 shortcomings forced this situation on the consumer. Unlike the 360 the PS3 struggled early on in its life and only until the PS3 started to get momentum [5] did we see third party exclusive dwindle.
But this generation has seen a shift in who controls the market. Sony announced the PS4 has sold 10 million units through to consumers[6] which is no small feat. One the other hand the last official figures from Microsoft released where they had shipped 5 million units by the end of March [7] and VGchartz has the Xbox One at around 5.1 million units [8]. This puts Microsoft in a different and weaker situation they were in with the 360. But despite this Microsoft has made aggressive moves getting third party exclusives as they have had already Dead Rising by Capcom, Ryse: Son of Rome from Crytek and EA’s Titanfall with Insomniac’s Sunset Overdrive coming in the fall. It shouldn’t have been a big surprise that, at Gamescom, Microsoft has snatched up another third party game brining it exclusive to the Xbox platform [9]. Even though Phil Spencer later clarified that this exclusive title has a duration they are hoping this title will be the Xbox’s Uncharted [10]. This issue I am going to discuss is Microsoft needs both Sunset Overdrive and Tomb Raider to not just do well but they need to do really well if Microsoft is going to be able to carry on securing third party deals with developers.
Dead Rising launched on the Xbox One and as of now it has sold 1.2 million units [11]. This number isn’t bad for the install base but it shows that Dead Rising isn’t enough to push the Xbox One nor bring new fans to a struggling franchise [12][13]. Capcom clearly isn’t that happy by those numbers as they have recently announced the game will be coming to the PC in September [14]. Crytek has been a little bit more public with their disappointment in their Xbox One sale figures [15]. In fact, as of late, Crytek has been in a terrible financial situation [16] leading to Crytek to sell off their newly anticipated game Homefront [17]. In the end it doesn’t matter if the two are not related as timing with give the public perception that they are. Titanfall figures are generally quite hard to find. EA’s Peter Moore said Titanfall sold 925,000 units by the end of March [18] and that EA said it is currently the bestselling Xbox One game/has the highest attachment rate on the Xbox One [19]. Vg chart says it sold 2 million on the Xbox One and 1 million on other platforms [20]. Though VGchartz has notoriously been woeful for short term figures and better when official figures are released [21]; it is the only figures we have to go on that isn’t pure speculation. Though the speculation should be a concern as Titanfall was a highly talked about, in a positive way, game [22][23]
This is why Tomb Raider and Sunset Overdrive need to be very successful all round as Microsoft could end up losing trust amongst external developers for exclusivity deals. Let’s be fair Microsoft lives and breathes from outside developer interests. Their biggest game this fall is from insomniac, an independent studio, and one of their biggest games releasing next year, Quantum Break, is again from a private developer but this one has strong links with Microsoft and almost acts as a first party studio. If Sunset Overdrive and/or Tomb Raider end up under selling the question remains what big developer would want to take a big gamble by accepting financial help from Microsoft? The idea behind these deals is to allow some financial stability to the studios but examples of the deals not working, as intended, are starting to stack up (For example Dead Rising, Titanfall and Ryse; with the latter being exclusively linked to financial woes). It would be disastrous to Microsoft’s reputation to add Sunset Overdrive and Tomb Raider to that list which is why Microsoft needs to push these games hard. I have far more faith for Sunset Overdrive but I feel with where Tomb Raider is launching [24] Microsoft may be setting up its own fate by cannibalising the sales of this game with their biggest franchise Halo as well as other big third party games. It isn’t Square Enix that will lose out the most.
Sources
[1] http://www.vgchartz.com/gam...
[2] http://www.vgchartz.com/gam...
[3] http://www.vgchartz.com/gam...
[4] http://www.vgchartz.com/ana...
[5] http://www.vg247.com/2010/0...
[6] http://arstechnica.com/gami...
[7] http://uk.ign.com/articles/...
[8] http://www.vgchartz.com/emb...
[9] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/t...
[10] http://www.eurogamer.net/ar...
[11] http://www.eurogamer.net/ar...
[12] http://www.vgchartz.com/gam...
[13] http://www.vgchartz.com/gam...
[14] http://www.eurogamer.net/ar...
[15] http://www.eurogamer.net/ar...
[16] http://www.totalxbox.com/78...
[17] http://www.gamespot.com/art...
[18] http://www.polygon.com/2014...
[19] http://www.eurogamer.net/ar...
[20] http://www.vgchartz.com/art...
[21] http://www.wired.com/2008/0...
[22] http://www.google.com/trend...
[23] http://www.google.com/trend...
[24] http://uk.ign.com/games/ris...
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Can't imagine PO not selling well, but at the same time doubt TR2 will sell little better than TR1 did.
Speaking from a neutral point of view, I really hope Microsoft gets it's head straight and start giving Sony a run for it's money. The last thing gamers need is a console monopoly.
I think that these console exclusives are Microsoft platforms will become less and less as time goes on.
PS4 is according to VGcharts selling 2.5:1 more units than Xbox. Given that they under-tracked PS4 by around 700k units in around 4 months the reality is PS4 is outselling Xbox about 3:1 globally, and the sales gap seems to be growing over time.
By the time TR comes out the gap will be somewhere around 10-12m Xbox's to 25-30m PS4. With a gap like that it's really hard to see Tomb Raider coming anywhere near Uncharted 4 sales based off install base.
After those sales figures roll out I think it will be incredibly hard for Microsoft to make the case to the third parties that it's a good idea to only release on their console.
Here's the hard hitting facts neither will sell that well on Xbox One, Sunset Overdrive is first and foremost a new IP, has been barely covered and not to mention Insomniac Fans tend to own PlayStations. TR2 while a well established franchise is not a major seller, they sell well don't get me wrong but not well enough to be confidence boosters plus the fact the series sells better on PlayStation.
Honestly this will blow up in MS face while I'm sure these 2 IPs will be successful they won't however be big sellers or even system sellers especially TR. SE will announce a PS4 version before the game is out on XONE because they just can not miss out on the large install base of the PS4.
Rise of the Tombraider isn't coming out until Holiday 2015 most likely. This also happens to be the time Halo 5 will be launching and that means a lot of people will be buying new Xbox One's. CD and Microsoft both know this is a perfect time to ride that money train. Got a new console with Halo 5, how bout picking up Rise of the Tombraider to go with it.
Plus for shoppers they will faced with the decision of Uncharted or Halo/Tombraider, not saying all of them will pick Halo/Tombraider but I imagine it would make that choice much easier to go the Xbox way.