Pachter: Casual gamers are never buying consoles again

XMNR: A column from Gamasutra on Wednesday contains a prognostication from Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter that should send chills down the spines of Nintendo and Microsoft executives. But do they actually have anything to worry about?

[Shok]

Lol.

[Abash]

Thats a dumb thing for Pachter to say. Sure, there wont be a casual gamer boom like the Wii brought but there will be a portion of them returning just because of the hype of a big release of a new console (which is a new piece of tech)

[iamnsuperman]

Why is it so hard to believe they will not. Let's be honest where has the casual market moved to and that is social and portable gaming. Smartphones are phones as well play games which have boomed very recently (so have social networking games). I think he has a point. A lot has changed since the Wii came out and the casual has moved from the console to the more smartphone/tablet/social networking games as they are cheaper to buy new games for and are addictive.

[F7U12]

can we please for the love of the spaghetti monster(may sauce be upon him) stop approving this trash...please? PLEASE!?!

[BlindGuardian]

actually this is the first relatively smart thing I have heard from him

modern tables and smartphones are more than capable of running the games the casual audience needs, and in all likeness casuals were going to buy either a tablet or an smartphone anyway so they save up the money of buying an expensive console

of course is not as black and white as he makes it sound but the Wii phenomenom won't happen again ever

and that's bad news for Microsoft and good news for gamers

[Pintheshadows]

"modern tables and smartphones are more than capable of running the games"

Tables that can run games. We are one step closer to the holodeck.

OT. I hate tablet and phone games. No buttons, no sticks, no mouse, no depth. The games that are popular are a joke and the supposed fantastic visuals are an outright lie.

But you know what, good. If that's what casuals want they're welcome to it. Let them thrive.

Hopefully it will cause, over time, games on dedicated platforms regain their complexity and difficulty as the casuals drain away.

[Clarence]

I agree with u and patcher. The wii was a huge fad and a lot people got caught in the world wind.

[xursz]

Good ridden.

[TekoIie]

Also what incentive does the Wii U give to casuals to upgrade from the standard Wii? They really dont care about what comes out atm. There will be people who buy it but i really doubt we're going to see Wii sales like early on this gen.

[bobshi]

@Pintheshadows, you haven't seen Microsoft Surface, then?

[Anon1974]

I know a couple of families that bought a Wii that have no interest in buying another console. The Wii just sits there and collects dust. They certainly aren't in a hurry to replace it considering they didn't really use it in the first place after the novelty wore off. What I find a bit maddening is one family ended up getting a PS3 for free when they bought a new minivan and it just sits there as well because they just think of it as another Wii. But, they aren't gamers. If they were, they'd probably already have a PS3 or 360, and they'd be playing it. The only games I see them play now are Facebook games.

[k-dillinger]

ya'll notice how they gotta throw kine ct in there like its on the same level the wii was and even though it outsold move by 2 million they don't add that in there smh..

[TekoIie]

I have no idea what your getting at...

[xxLuckyStrike]

It's all about marketing!!! Any BIG CORPORATION KNOWS You can't be arrogant and just assume everyone is gonna follow and buy your console (coughs). Seriously You have your core gamers, casuals that carry over, and new buyers. Some won't return but that's where mass marketing comes in. Next gen could be a big one for M$.. you can't deny they know how to market the hell out their product.. Sony needs a big marketing campaign to stay in this thing. And Nintendo is already home of the casual

[aviator189]

Well, that sounds absurd. The majority of the families that I've met with have the wii/ps move or kinect solely for the reason that everyone in the family can play together on the big screen, not having to play solo on the ipad or iphone. Sure, the sales may not break records like the wii did, but it's still a ridiculous thing to say.

[RememberThe357]

Thats funny cuz most families I know don't play their Wii's at all and any gaming systems that are used are used by the kids. Casual gaming has moved to browsers and smartphones. Why buy a new Wii when you can have the same or similar experience on a smart phone?

[sikbeta]

It's all about apple for these analysts, they see a future in which people is dependent to that brand alone, for the love of god that kind of thinking scares the sh*** out of me, no competition, just a big f***ing monopoly dictating prices and how much tech can advance or not, crazy!

[madpuppy]

Keep that Apple trash away from me, what kind of fool would buy from a company so arrogant that when they do make a mistake (antennae in iphone) they blame the customer for "holding it the wrong way".

If people support a litigious, arrogant company like that, they deserve what they get.

[Reborn]

He may have a point.

If your console does what you want it do, chances of you going to buy a new one is pretty slim. What happened with the Wii, probably won't be repeated on such a scale. However, if it does, it probably will be under Nintendo.

[dangert12]

His entitled to his opinion I just Cant be bothered to read his opinion...just thought I would let people know he is entitled to his opinion

[ShiftyLookingCow]

Patcher is in dire need of a patch that makes him stfu.

[LightofDarkness]

It's PaCHTer, not PaTCHer. I hope you have dyslexia, for your sake.

[PersonMan]

Hmm... that's funny... I've always read it as PATCHER.

Actually, you know what... I'm still going to read it as Patcher because that's what I'm used to.

[Tyre]

This is what u expect from a pro mobile/Onlive/phone lobbyist, and guess what Pachter is saying these (pathetic attemps) 'trying to be' self-fullfilling prophecies since the start. What he actually trying to do is manipulating the games industry and in this case the console game industry, by scare mongering a negative grow future because of the false prospect that casual gamers who bought a console will never jump a generation... guess what u expect the industry to jump on ur lobbyist side? What about 'former' casual gamers turned regular and even hardcore? All the peeps buying 360/PS3 to this date...can't be all early adapters, can it? What a load of BS. This guy reeks of propaganda for his benefactors...ugh Phones ugh Mobile ugh Onlive Industry. Ignore this guy media plz.

[Lucretia]

i think he exxagerated.

i think casuals wont buy consoles the same way they did the wii again, but not "never again"

the wii is the most sold console yet least played console ever with the worst software sales. that has to say something

[TheLyonKing]

I disagree with his opinion on this one. I think as long as people have money to spend casuals will come purely cause its a gadget they must own.

[jrbeerman11]

bingo,

it basically all comes down to the marketing at launch.

Think about it, the wii system is/was a garbage last gen console at its launch only bringing the wiimote and sensor bar to differentiate itself from competition. I barely saw the difference between that and gamecube.

but everyone had to have it, it was the tickle me elmo of that holiday season, people were buying it because it was new and hard to get which superficially gave it more value.

after purchase everyone either played wii sports and maybe two or three other titles and shelfed it,or bought it for kids because they thought it would actually give appropriate exercise in which they asked for ps3 or 360 after, or the hardcore players kept it for zelda.

the market for younger kids who do not make their own video game purchases is still here, 3DS is directly marketed at this segment, so the new wii will at least sell to that one, but it will take more to get sales close to original wii.

[beerkeg]

It sold for a lot longer than one season, it outsold the competition for years. And I know many families that still play it quite often, including my own. It also has many many games worth buying, funnily enough.

Nintendo is as well known as Disney for families, don't be surprised if success like the Wii does happen again.

[Baka-akaB]

Good riddance . I dont mind such market shifting to tabs and phones

[xXxSeTTriPxXx]

i've been saying this for years....

[TBONEJF]

Patcher, Patcher, Pather when are you going to learn that you're never right.

[Y_5150]

Mobile games would be the go to for casuals. Before mobile games got popular Wii had the Wii! Wii was a fad, sad but true. I still love my Wii because of certain first party games so nobody call me a hater! :)

[Raoh]

I agree. My future in laws bought a wii, its just sitting there since they thrill is gone. There is no dvd playback. And netflix looks better on their apple tv than it does on their wii.

They are not gamers, which many non gamers bought a wii. They have no interest in a new console. Hell even the ones using it for netflix have no reason to upgrade if their netflix still works.

A few casuals may buy the next kinect/xbox8 or maybe ps4 if they launch wiht strong apps and promotion at launch but I don't see wiiu making the same sales that the wii had.

[european_cannon]

I've seen that happen with the Wii and so many "casual" buyers it's crazy.

[tweet75]

i hope casual gamers quit buying consoles completely than all console companies will be forced to make gamers games no more novelty games.

[Asgaro]

The first step you should take is: to NOT buy the 360's successor. If it sells well, MS will make it even more of a casual console.

Go for the PS4 because Sony cares about exclusives for hardcore gamers.

I'm gonna get hate for this comment, but it's the reality. To the 360 gamers: look at your Dashboard. What does it show you? Ads, ads and ads. Gaming is only a small part of it now.
E3 2012? MS has already said it will be about SERVICES, not about games.

[jrbeerman11]

@asgaro while i agree with you, im taking more of a wait and see approach. If they launch a new console with 2 exclusives per year, then ya I might wait. Hard to buy a console just for Halo and Forza.

But if they decide to actually cater to hardcore gamers instead of depending on multiplat 3rd party, then ill be on board. And I dont mean buying PlayStation exclusives to go multiplat like GTA and Final Fantasy.

the beginning of 360s life was good, the second half......was gears, forza, and halo. (forza is not a system seller as ps has amazing game called gran turismo)

xbox also had that "multi plats run better on 360" but with exception to maybe skyrim, it wasn't noticable unless you look at comparisons and run side by side.

[european_cannon]

Check your facts, Skyrim is SUPERIOR on the 360.

[jrbeerman11]

@european_cannon,

ya......thats what i wrote. Read it again.

[Ck1x]

If Pachter had more credibility with his predictions then maybe I would believe him. But this guy is always wrong when it comes to Nintendo and I'm sure that he never predicted back in the day that the xbox 360 would have sold as many consoles as it has already today. The market is steadily growing and mostly because with each iteration, these devices are doing more and more in the way of total entertainment...

[Moby-Royale]

He definitely casts a wide net.

I agree with you that his track record with Nintendo is iffy, to say the least.

[EffectO]

Gaming industry is certainly heading to another crash but this time there are plenty of soft spots to land.
Be scared n4g people,be scared...

[jjdoyle]

Pachter? Michael Pachter? Credibility?

[N311V]

I agree with Pachter. Every time I've told a casual I know about the Wii U I get a similar response. They're simply not interested because the don't play the Wii they currently own. I don't think Wii U sales will be anywhere in the phenomenal Wii, I reckon Nintendo's handhelds will outsell the Wii U.