simExchange: 360 to outsell PS3 2-to1 for Xmas

The simExchange October review report, based on information taken from the online prediction market simExchange, believes that the Xbox 360 will outsell the PlayStation 3 in the US by almost 2-to-1 between now and the end of the year.

According to analyst Jesse Divnich the Xbox 360 will sell just over 2 million units, while the PS3 will sell just over 1 million - although the Wii and DS will trump them both handsomely, shifting 3.28 million and 2.86 million units respectively.

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P4KY B4928d ago (Edited 4928d ago )

My sister wants me to get her one and I can't find one anywhere in Scotland.

Edit: oh yeah so it is, sorry didn't read it properly.

perseus4928d ago

The prediction is just for the US, it seems.

ravinash4928d ago

Ofcourse you have to facter in things like other new titles to come out like UT3 as well.
I'm sure sales of other games like Ratchet and clank will improve as more people buy PS3 so there are more people to buy them (although its not my sort of game).
I'm trying to figure out what would be driving the 360 sales, the onmly big title I can think of is mass effect.

So really how the sales will go is any ones guess.

tomfoolery4928d ago

Can't win em all Sony!
Well done MS..................well done.

the worst4928d ago

now go play with your sony psp

allforcalisto4928d ago

it hasn't happened yet dude.

and besides that's not a really good thing. the 360 has been outselling the ps3 by a lot more before. It's cheaper, has a larger library of games (AAA's)

when you look at it, the 360 hasn't really sold much this year at all. Probably about 1-2 mill. For the top dog that's pretty meh. Considering the amount of games that came out for the 360 this year that's not really that impressive. If we had switched the prices of the consoles and the launch dates of certain games. So the ps3 had mgs4 in september, was priced as much as the 360, and had FFXIII, Killzone, and GRan turismo 5 coming out this year the sales would be far more.

microsoft should have bought FFXIIIversus, they shouldda shelled out the money for it imo. worldwide FF always sells better than any of the rpgs on the 360. financially it wouldda made sense. I think the only thing keeping mgs4 on the ps3 is kojima iron will. logically it makes sense to make it multiplat to make a decent financial return...unless sony are giving square and konami compensation. who knows.
anyway in order to have a good lead in a console war (ps2 type lead) you've gotta sell units like crazy, and so far the only console that seems to have a chance at getting remotely near to ps2 prominence is the wii. i doubt this will happen though, even nintendo are anticipating a dramtic slow down in 08.

TheMART4928d ago (Edited 4928d ago )

"when you look at it, the 360 hasn't really sold much this year at all. Probably about 1-2 mill."

You're joking, right?

It sold already alone in USA Sept. 550k, Oct. 530k alone. It outsold the PS3 the first six months of the year world wide with 400k average consoles a month (at least for april/may/june). It has sold about 2 mln. the first 6 months, it sold close to 1.5 mln. the last 3 months (August Bioshock sold 360's, Sept. Halo 3, now Ace Combat 6/Mass Effect does) and it'll sell over 2 mln. units in USA this Christmas alone, world wide 3.5 mln. or so.

That'll make about 7mln. and some 360's sold this year, the PS3 won't sell more for sure.

Sez 4928d ago (Edited 4928d ago )

i understand you want to take some steam out of 360's sales by saying that it only sold around 1-2 mil for the whole year. yet ps3 must not have sold a mil yet. the ps3 hasn't outsold any console sinced it launched. every month in NA the 360 has been kicking th ps3 @ss every month consistantly. now i know i may get alot of disagree or even ignored. but the fact of the matter is the ps3 is on life support in NA. but but but what about EU. well sonyfanboys use vgchart number for EU to claim ownage. yet vgchart numbers are way off.

p.s. if you disagree. please by all means enlighten me a site other than vgchart that gives real numbers.

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Gina-get-u4928d ago (Edited 4928d ago )

That would be a big improvement for the PS3, which was outsold more than 5 to 1 in September and more than 3 to 1 in October. But I have a deep distrust of the Sim-exchange forecasting system, because it's based on human desires or wants. While desires and wants are infinite, purchasing power isn't. I think the system will have a natural tendency to inflate predictions, and the higher the price of a product goes, the higher the error rate will be. On the other hand, the cheaper (and therefore more easily attainable) a product becomes, the more accurate the forecast will be, until it becomes cheap enough to become an impulse buy, at which point it could fall completely off the radar.

MS is being mighty smug by not immediately matching the PS3 pricecut. They must feel confident that they can beat Sony with the 360's current price points. I think an equivalent 360 pricecut can restore the 5 to 1 advantage over the PS3 in December. It could happen yet if PS3 sales rebound significantly this month. Sony cannot win a price war with MS because in any race to the bottom, the 360 will achieve a mass-market price point long before the PS3 does, and MS is in a better financial position to maintain subsidized hardware pricing in order to increase market share.

It's going to be an interesting next two months. I predict the course of history in this console race will be determined during this period.

TheMART4928d ago

I have a strong feeling Microsoft will cut the 360 price just before Christmas. They are still selling strong now, but they want to defeat the PS3 this Christmas.

Imagine, they drop the price on the 360 and consumers leave the PS3 totally alone on the shelve. Imagine what it would do to the general opinion about the PS3? "It ain't selling, not even after a year" you'll hear everywhere. Imagine if the 360 will sell many, many systems, you'll hear "Even after 2 years its on top, even outselling the before mighty Playstation brand".

It'll be massive menthal blow for sure. I think MS will drop the price early december, to 279 or 299 for a 360 Premium (the other models with an equal amount)

Hapimeses4928d ago (Edited 4928d ago )

I find an Xbox price drop before Christmas very, very unlikely. This is the busiest time of year, and throwing away money like that makes very poor business sense. Xbox will sell in droves at Christmas, and will very likely sell out in many places. Thus, it does not need a price drop to sell significantly more consoles, and thus make more money -- in fact, a price dop will probably lose Micosoft money given that they are apparently unlikely to supply the demand as it stands if you believe the press. Given the investment the company has already dropped into the machine, it seems very unlikely that they will throw more money away at this crucial stage of their business plan.

Then again, perhaps I'm wrong.


ironwolf4928d ago

but over the last 20 years this form of forcasting has proved to be the most accurate anyone has ever developed. It's been used successfully in everything from predicting the stockmarket to predicting elections and Oscar winners.

Reanimator4927d ago

Also, do not foget that the 360 costs a hell of a lot less to make than the PS3, which was losing big bucks BEFORE the $100 cut. Sony is really bleeding money right now! And the extremely low software sales translate into extremely low revenue from those sales. Nowhere near enough to compensate.

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Jandre024928d ago

but worldwide it will be alot closer than that. If the Xbox does win, it will be by an extremely slim margin WW. I think the PS3 might win WW in sales though.

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