id Software’s programming genius John Carmack thinks games consoles might die out in ten years, thanks to technological limitations and the rise of cloud computing.
then gaming will be over and done with as an industry. Its already going down at an alarming rate. Profits for the companies keep decreasing year over year @ below bioware and bethesda deciding to dumb down there rpgs for the masses as nothing to do with this issue. This is an issue were over 75 percent of all game sales are physical and your just wiping that out and expecting people to fall in line. They wont. I wont.
I have no problem with consoles but they are almost like a trend in a box! - http://beefjack.com/news/sk... - http://www.google.com/searc... I hope sony never tries to forces motion control like M$ as ps3/pc are the only hardcore platforms left..
its ok $ony is too busy trying to force 3d down our throats. their motion control idea was just to tick a box.
PC has more 3D than the PS3. Not sure why I am telling you as if you actually care.
Does the PC have more games "built" with 3D in mind? Or do almost all the games that were "built" in 2D run in 3D as well with Nvidia 3D Vision?
The next-generation will be here soon, in a couple of years." So he is predicting 2 years? I think there a few important factors to take into account... Firstly, OnLive is already available and experimenting with "broadband" gaming over the internet. There are still lag issues eventhough OnLive's CEO admits that streaming and network lag detection algorithms are being continously worked on and "improved". The issue is that network congestion and internet "pipe-sharing" won't just go away, infact it could get worse as more and more people demand faster speeds. Carmack my invisage a world where everything is "streamed" to the user, but there are limitations such as cost per megabyte of data, i.e. the dreaded data cap; and how many people want access to the same service in highly congested areas... especially if this takes into account cellular - let's face it, more and more people want to game on the go too, and this demand will only rise. As we all know, wireless cellular datacaps are even worse than physical fixed line datacaps... It is conceivable that in 10 years time data costs will not be such an issue, but we don't know that for sure. I work in the Telecommunications field as a radio planning and optimisation consultant, and I can tell you, getting a cellular network to behave properly under heavy load is not easy... trust me on this :) Carmack also speaks as if everyone will have access to the internet. A good majority of people will, but not everyone. There may also be individuals who want to play their gaming "offline", who are comfortable with the idea of remaining "off the grid" so to speak. What happens to them? The cloud will become more important, but there are real security concerns to. Just look at the past 2 months, and see how many other websites and internet services were hacked to sh*t! The CIA's site went down yesterday thanks to Luzsec... its almost impossible to find these people. Sony also recently admitted they still have no clue who broke into PSN definatively. I don't know, I get a funny feeling about this... c'mon, who wants all their gaming internet based and in the cloud?
30 years ago to say something like OnLive (hell even the internet for that matter) would exist would be ridiculous. I appreciate you attempt at dismantling his argument, and for the most part I agree with you. Ultimately though, technology seems to move faster than most of us this is reasonably possible. I for one, would not be surprise to see cloud gaming as the inevitable future.
But don't companies like Virgin Media stream HD TV to millions of people in the UK over cable internet connections? The Mb/s should be the same with an few addtional b/s to send controller information... Why is it a problem if companies already stream tones of live footage already?
idk about that ive had the same internet speed for like 7 years and my cost have not gone down but instead of went up
This guy is a "programming genius"? He doesn't seem all that smart to me if he's making stupid predictions like this. below I did read the article and I didn't agree with his reasoning. If you are willing to say to the gaming media that you think consoles "might" be dead in ten years then he is probably pretty sure. I don't believe that though.
Read the article first. He gave his reasoning. Also, note that he said used the words: *might* be dead
Clearly you don't know what "prediction" means, because the article I read had nothing to do with predictions, but speculation and thought provoking questions.
Carmack is renowned for saying what he likes and when he likes. As you might guess the guy doesn't look like a real people person and he isn't, they had to give him a special exit from the Doom movie premier because they knew he'd be painfully frank about it. He's simply speculating for a bit of fun and do you know what 2021 is going to look like? Microsoft just announced that windows 8 will feature xbox live in almost all of it's glory, they intend to have almost no barriers across their platforms and are even considering a subscription service that allows pc gamers to play 360 games. Consoles are inching closer and closer to the realm of being EXACTLY like pc's as it is. They're boxes with a gpu and a cpu and they hook up to a big screen. The only difference is corporate politics that give us exclusives and different controllers which with every iteration seem to be getting more and more fucking similar to each other. I don't think this is a stupid prediction at all.
consoles are here to stay because its a standardized platform. Every pc everywhere has different cpu, gpu, amount of ram and what have you and it would make for different experiences across the board. Plus you would have to worry about updating drivers and trying to get the game to work exactly right. Also, I think the quality of games would go down in regards to bugs and things since the pc has so much more resources to work with, they wouldnt go to the trouble of optimizing the game (because every pc has different specs) and a lot of the game would probably perform worse than a poor port from a console. It would make the programmers more lazy than they already are. Just my opinion.
I think the quality of games would be better. PC games have actually suffered in quality because of consoles. Let's be honest here, any pc you buy today(desktop) would be much faster than a console. It's not that big a deal to update a graphics driver and you don't have to do it for every game. Different hardware just adjust the resolution. I think it's better to be given options. Basically every 360 game is on the pc anyway and even epic, lionhead, etc. all came from pc games
he's done more for the gaming industry than Kojima ever will... just sayin
Well, Carmack, so could you, so kick back and have a beer.
well 2012 is coming so really we all might as well do that :)
Highly doubtful. Will consoles change with the times and new tech like they have all along? Yes. Will they go away completely? I'd say no. The whole "Cloud" idea seems less and less desirable to me, given the rise in hacking incidents and the seemingly weak will that most companies and even governments show in fighting them.
cloud computing and game streaming will never catch on with the way ISPs are limiting monthly bandwidth caps. Such limits with also limit growth.
Carmack makes patcher look like a decent pedictor.
Carmack actually knows what he is talking about (I hope he's wrong). Patcher uses a cootie catcher.
Highly doubt it. Console gaming is popular for many reasons. It's fast and easier to get started. A lot of people don't want to invest the time in dealing with the computer when issues arise or figuring out compatibility issues. Updating multiple drivers. Etc. Second, when you buy the game, you know it will work and don't have to figure out the specs and how great/shitty the game might look on your PC. Third, resale value of console games. Fourth, a huge selection of used games. Fifth, more selection of games. Sixth, it's more consumer friendly. For me, it's just easier to own a console and I don't have the space to own a desktop nor do I know too many people who play PC games anymore. I use my laptop to get work down and websurf mostly. I use my PS3 for gaming and media entertainment.
This doesn't have much to do with PC gaming. In many cases, cloud-based gaming is faster and easier, has next to no technical hassel and is also cheaper. There is no resale factor, but that ultimately means publishers will want to make the switch.
Well with the standard of "broadband" in the US being so low. 756kbps. Limit caps might become the future, I highly doubt cloud based gaming will become a popular choice. Right now, it's faster for be to go out and buy a 1GB size game than it is to download it.
^ Yes, buying retail is often a better choice for most people right now. Though I buy most of my games digital and even a 15gig download takes less than half an hour. Then again, not everyone has this kind of internet, but he's talking 10 years from now. If game publishers want to make a push, they have enough money and demand to get ISPs to take down limits. Keep in mind that with cloud-based games, you don't have to actually download the game. It's similar to netflix, except instead of a movie being streamed, it's a real-time game.
Digital means you don't own it. I want to own my content. I do understand what Carmack is trying to say. He basically is saying that once consoles get to a certain point, what's the point of buy the next one IF it doesn't offer any better performance. Because it's hit the roof. Will it just get to PS5 and then PS5 will last for 30years? As a business will Sony do this? Would it be benifical or not benifical, business wise?
It also depends upon the variety of wireless access. Bloody 4G LTE (Verizon) in my area averages around the 5-10 Mb/s range, getting speeds as high as 29-30 Mb/s. 3G in the US "started" in 2003, but I doubt it saw a fraction of the rapid growth that 4G will or even the generations beyond. Cell phone companies may be gouging like crazy now, but eventually the supply will probably outpace demand. Why? At a certain point, more speed is practically meaningless. Not to sound like an old guy (I'm not even 30 for God's sake), but I started out on a bloody 28k modem. I skipped by the 14! Yeah, there wasn't much gig-sized downloads happening, but then again there wasn't much *to* download. I'm sure people will keep coming up with crap that takes up more and more space, but I feel like it's going to/already has started to taper off.
i'll be enjoying my future ps4 when it releases and then after that a ps5 lol.
I am ok with that, if you are ok with your ps5 being a cloud gaming device...
you think people will not want physical media? i know i do. video game collectors like their discs and game cases where they can see them, not up in some digital clouds.
What you want will make very little difference in 15 years. The publishers and Developers will all push for digital media to increase their strangle hold on your wallet.
Most people don't want physical media right now. In 10 years physical ~anything~ information based will be a complete anachronism. I wonder if when I am 60 there will still be Sony ps6 hold outs who are all like "mind control gaming is ruining my motion control vr sims!"
You're out of your mind if you think physical media will prevail long term. There may be some collectors who see value in putting colorful boxes on a shelf, but the digital age is not headed in a way that will please this minority.
"you think people will not want physical media?" Have you seen DVD and Blu-Ray sales over the past few years and how services like NetFlix and others are rising faster than those? How many times have we heard about: "I want physical media for CD's" ...look now what has happened... This is the direction gaming is going like it or not. It's the same way music and movies is and has been going. It won't happen over night but its coming sooner than you think. ALL ONE HAS TO DO IS LOOK AT the music and movie industry to get an idea what will happen with the game industry. They ALL follow closely. Always
Spot on! Music was the first to turn digital because mp3s are small... Movies are now going digital because video streaming is no longer that hard to do and the ping of the connection doesn't need to be fast... Games will go digital in the years to come as internet speed continue to improve and the pings in connection continue to drop... There will be no reason to buy a disk in the same exact way there is no need to buy a music album.
He makes a good point though. I dont think consoles will die but after next gen they may stop making new ones. There would be no need. Next gen consoles will be 10 times more powerful than the current gen. How much power do you need? Sony has a cloud service which they could use to compete with, in case the industry ever shifts largely towards cloud based gaming.
How much power you need depends on how good you want your games to look. I suppose you've seen enough movies to know how real modern VFX looks. 10x more power is not even close to getting you there.
they have warehouses full of servers and they cant even do it realtime. youll see, weve got a long way to go before we even scrape reality. 10x more power how about 10millionx then the sand in your games will almost be "real"
Realism is the only argument I've heard for more than 10x the power of current gen consoles. But I don't really care about realism. I doubt anyone's gonna keep pandering for more powerful consoles just for the sake of more realism.
This isn't what I would expect from a person like Carmack. This is low class and shows fanboyism. I understand he loves PC but there is no point on putting consoles down. Has he even looked at the video gaming market as of late?
So you didn't read the article?
This was enough to know what it is about: "id Software’s programming genius John Carmack thinks games consoles might die out in ten years, thanks to technological limitations and the rise of cloud computing."
^ Do you know what cloud-computing is? Congrats on reading the first paragraph though.
Nope it wasn't enough. Do you not understand how journalism works? Half the time they can't even relay what he is actually saying, and this is one of those cases. Read his actual quotes instead of letting some shitty site interpret it for you.
Ares: Yes, and then he goes on to explain exactly why, in a way that has absolutely nothing to do with fanboyism or the current market. The prediction is to do with technology and the market in ten years' time.
Spot on, LewisDenby. More to the point, if you actually read his posts (as wicko says above) he NEVER SAYS the word "dead" or "die"... and is only saying that the next generation of consoles will be good enough to last until the next evolution of gaming. But hey, isn't it fun to attack a legendary developer and take his quotes out of context?
Consoles will go on for decades! Tech doesn't stop fpr anyone, not even for Carmack
I dont think you understand. This is EXACTLY what he is saying. Cloud computing and game delivery is the evolution of tech, you can be certain of that. Just cause you dont want it to happen in no way means it wont. Tech doesnt stop for you either. Cloud computing is coming.
I've been hearing downloads this downloads that cloud this cloud yet we get a new console or handheld with physical media every 3 years almost... hell the download only systems all failed..... physical media will always be the number 1 standard for games and movies
"“And shoot, once we’re out ten years cloud-based gaming is almost a shoe-in. It’s not a shoe-in this year or next year, but if you look ten years out, piping everything over a broadband connection, there are huge advantages to doing that.” Will this mean the end of home consoles? “It might,” said Carmack." Means the end to PC gaming as we know it, too.
Some quick numbers... At the current rate of growth, the iPad will sell about 30 units over the next year. Juxtapose that to the ~200 million PC's sold a year. Realize the iPad is still growing... I am a huge PC fanboy, no really, I am, but the PC is coming to an end... Will it happen over night? Absolutely not, but if the internet has taught me anything over the last 20 years, is that the internet throws all the old assumptions out, and it throws them out over and over again...
Well IT MIGHT! PC´s deliver everything that there´s to be delivered while on consoles disapointment is a common thing. PC´s just need to get more "adaptable" to the point where a console just doesnt make sense anymore.I cant see that happening.
So by PC being adaptable u basically looking for a console that's upgradable? How do u expect millions of console owners to follow? Sorry but(although cool idea) just won't be possible I'm afraid :)
You hit the nail on the head. The main problem is consoles are to simple at times but PC's can be far to confusing. Alot of devs allowing ps3 and 360 controller key mappings is one of these things that can rejuvenate this. Personally I love my KB/mouse but its alot of buttons for some people. But without a doubt cloud is the future and with smart TV d getting better I can see consoles fading in 10-15 years Off topic However with windows 8 Fudge paying for Xbox live on a desktop. Why would I pay for easy kills.
Correction - I can see that happening.
End of the day its about money and as far as I'm concerned, consoles aren't going anywhere.
pc gaming is just for enthusiast,thats why most houses have some sort of console etc
Carmack is a brilliant programmer. But as I keep saying, he's a HORRIBLE games industry prognosticator. This is just another in a long line of ridiculous predictions he's made. As for this specific prediction, cloud-based gaming creates a TON of challenges, none of which will be resolvable until this country has a massive upgrade in broadband capacity as well as a decrease in broadband cost. We are so far away from there that it's almost funny. I'm a big Carmack fan, but I have to also add that he is a well-known closet PC-fanboy, who used to not even hide it. A lot of what he says are passive-aggressive efforts to take digs at console gaming and/or undermine it. The guy misses the 1990s.
Imagine the type of challenges involved with international ownership accounts. Will you be limited to your local national cloud? And if you by from a foreign cloud, who's laws are both parties subjected to, and what are your rights? Will people buy into it if the standard contract tells you that you have no rights and the could could disappear at any time? People can deal with digital movies and music more easily because it's non interactive media that can be easily archived onto physical media by the consumer. But video games are not that simple for a law abiding citizen. Aside from those questions, "cloud" is just a trendy term for an old technique that is waiting for new technology.
I really dislike the idea of gaming over a cloud. You would no longer actually own your games, you'd be essentially renting them. If you have no internet, then you're shit out of luck. Plus, streaming the game over the cloud means that there will be inevitable latency and image compression, so games will look fuzzier/dithered and have terrible input lag. And because QoS is hard to guarantee these days, any bandwidth hitches will be very costly to the gaming experience (lower res, greater lag etc.).
Who's the hell is this guy any way? People said the same when PC was hundred times better than SNES and genesis.
Who is he? Lolwotumad? Srs? Srs bro what? Like wow? Who the hell are you is the real question. I can't even be bothered to insult you, you did that yourself.
No they didn't, back when the SNES and Genesis were around the PC was considered technically inferior, due to the very minimal system specs available at the time, as PC's were mostly used for general purposes, with no real investment in high end gaming. The side scrolling genre was exclusive to consoles at the time also, PC's couldn't simply run it, only consoles at that time had the silicon muscle to constantly redraw the screen at a fast rate, PC was actually considered a lesser entity because of this, even developers who tried and failed were beginning to drop the PC. John Carmack is in fact that one person who changed this. A game called "Dangerous Dave, in Copyright Infringement", which was the first consistent side scroller on the PC that not only didn't have a load time for screen pacing, but Carmack managed to do it, with any general home computers specs, that's insane. Even Romero had Carmack and his team drop all other projects to explore this new thing and they were able to even run Super Mario Brothers 3 on the PC. This same tech would be used too for a well known game called "Commander Keen." Carmack is an engineering prodigy, he is greatly respected in the industry, and his engines are a technical marvel. He was able to bring new light to PC gaming, and is one of the major key people who helped it where it is today. The More You Know...
with all that under this guys belt you would think he would make a smart prediction ......guess if your smart in one thing I guess it doesn't mean your smart in all things as this crazy prediction shows us clearly
Actually it's not a stupid predication, consoles only carry on because of popularity and simple convenience, PC's offer limitless direction and more open room for developers, consoles however are limited by what their tech allows over time, and with limits simple convenience is lost, for both developers and consumers, plus with manufacturers choices behind consoles, I wouldn't put it past me as not possible.
Sorry? Could you repeat that idiotic question again?
"Who's the hell is this guy any way?" N4G, always good for a laugh.
Yeh right......He shouldn't his mouth as crap comes out of it. If anything PC will be dead in a decade, cos of the amount of piracy on the platform.
I'm not necessarily sure that Carmack's actually saying that console gaming will die out. Rather, he's saying that the next generation will be so good that we simply won't need another one until cloud gaming is ubiquitous. I think a lot of articles are getting the wrong end of the stick on this one. EDIT: Wow. For you *idiots* who insist on slagging John Carmack off, Google is your friend. You owe everything to visionary developers like him - and if he says something, you'd better listen. Show some respect.