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PS3 will struggle to outsell PS2 - or match its exclusives, says Harrison

Sony faces a "difficult challenge" to match PS2's record-breaking sales with PS3 - as it suffers from the death of the golden age for third-party exclusives.

That's according to the former head of Sony Worldwide Studios Phil Harrison.

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scar204982d ago

As of now but we will have to wait and see the ps3 has only been on the market for 4 years while the ps2 has been on the market for 10 years so i other words in due time.

TOO PAWNED4982d ago

How many PS2 were sold in first 4 years? Thats what you should compare

All_4_One4982d ago

Yeah, and what price did the PS2 launch at, and what conditions was it under?

PS3 faced one of the toughest launches ever, yet look at it now.

MeatPopsicle4982d ago (Edited 4982d ago )

The PS3 will have no trouble reach PS2 worldwide sales. It's simple math.

The PS3 is already at 42+ million at the 4 year mark.

The PS3 is going to have a longer sales life than the PS2 according to Sony.

The PS3 is on track to sell 15 million consoles in Sony's current fiscal year while still at 300 dollars - the launch price of the PS2.

The PS2 didn't start selling in the 20 million a year range until it hit 200 dollars an below.

The PS2 sold some 100-110 million consoles AFTER it dropped to 200 dollars.

The PS3 has yet to drop to 200 dollars.

The PS3 has six to seven more years of sales left.

Take 140 million as a PS3 lifetime sales target. That means it has to sell 100 million more consoles over the next six to seven years.

That means the PS3 would have to average 14-16 million consoles a year. It is on track to do 15 million while still at 300 dollars.

It doesn't take much of a leap to imagine the sales the PS3 is going to be doing when it drops to 200 dollars.

Maybe...MAYBE.. Nintendo strikes gold once again and shakes up the market. But outside of something earth shattering from Nintendo there isn't anything that is going to stop the PS3 from reaching PS2 level lifetime sales.

HolyOrangeCows4982d ago

"PS3 will struggle to outsell PS2"

Especially when the media is so desperate for it to fail.

AtatakaiSamurai4982d ago

^^ oh thank you. sometimes i dont understand how these people get paid to be analysts when we normal everyday gamers know more about the history and everyday workings of the industry.

the ps3 is set to surpass the ps2. i think it was in ps2 4th year when it droped to $199 and the thing went on FIRE!

sure ps3 is 4years now but it launched at a higher price. next year it will be $199 and the same thing will happen how cant people see this?

but the 360 is 5years old and has a version that has been $199 for a long time and even cheaper than that in Eu and JPN for over 18months now and its virtually at a stand still and only growing little by little with many sales coming from people who are rebuying it instead of new people.

if i was a shareholder this information will be vital to me cause i would see it as a dying stock and keep away and i would be mad as hell if my analyst didnt tell me about this.

All_4_One4982d ago

"Especially when the media is so desperate for it to fail."

So true. I absolutely love watching the desperation from people still living in 2006. It`s so funny! The excuses are running out big time.

1st excuse: PS3 is the next Dreamcast

2nd excuse: PS3 will never take second

3rd excuse: PS3 wont match the PS2

Next excuse: 100+ million isn`t that much, the 360 sold like 60 million thats amazing for Xbox. PS3 should have at least 100 million more than the Xbox.

Final excuse: PS3 just took too long to get going. I say we ignore the 100 million it sold after 5 years, lets just focus on the 1st 4 years and call it a big flop.

Lol. I can`t wait to see the excuses in a couple years.

Dark_king4982d ago

@MeatPopsicle It really is pretty simple math,even if Nintendo does release something that truly sets the market a flame it would still hit PS2 numbers.When the numbers finally begin to drop from the next systems they could simple bring in a hundred dollar PS3 that play all PS2/PS1 games.This would do wonders for sells in the poorer areas.

MeatPopsicle4982d ago

"When the numbers finally begin to drop from the next systems they could simple bring in a hundred dollar PS3 that play all PS2/PS1 games.This would do wonders for sells in the poorer areas."

Dark_king, I agree except for the crazy fast EDRAM in the PS2 is going to be really tough for Sony to come out with a truly PS2 hardware compatible PS3 system.

I am hoping that once the PS3 drops to 200 or so that Sony introduces a more expensive model that has the same full PS hardware BC that the 60 gigs have.

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Parapraxis4982d ago (Edited 4982d ago )

uuuuugh.........computerandvid eogames .com

Reported as dupe..these guys need to stop stealing from other websites.

metsgaming4982d ago

remember we are in a global recession of course the consoles today wouldnt have sold as much in the same time frame as the ps2 had.

NYC_Gamer4982d ago

PS2 really had no competition.

Anon19744982d ago

Yeah, and for developers it was no big deal to bring a title out only on the PS2 given the huge install base. This gen has been dramatically different, and the cost of developing titles on the "next gen" platforms has increased as well. It's tougher on both the console makers and developers this time around. That's one of the reasons we're seeing a rise in casual gamers/mobile phone games. They're so much cheaper to throw out there that they don't have to sell as much to make the company's money. I'm coming into the end of my game programmer course and there are still a few younger students who think they'll go out and create the next Halo right out of the gate - but the realists among us know that casual games and mobile games using something like the Unity engine offer the biggest chances of success starting out.

gamingdroid4982d ago

Golden age of multi-platform?

It's the golden age, because PS3 no longer dominates. There are other choices now so nobody in their right mine would make exclusives. Doesn't make any business sense!

MonkeyBoy924982d ago (Edited 4982d ago )

Thats why i loved the PS2, even without any serious competition it still produced some of the best games known to gaming, I admire that they didn't get lazy and just bump you the prices and produce average games.

Now that Sony have got themselves together (first few years were kind of bumpy) I think the PS3 will continue to sell really well and also continue to produce must-have exclusives. Although realistically i don't think it will reach the dizzy heights of the PS2. You never know though, a price drop to £200/£150 would work wonders.

MeatPopsicle4982d ago

Love the revisionist history.

The PS2 had no competition? The PS2 had more competition than any other console in history:

Sony went up against THREE different console companies:

Sega
Nintendo
Microsoft

And the PS2 has had to compete with FOUR different consoles over its life:

Dreamcast
GameCube
Xbox
Xbox 360

The PS2 didn't start putting up 20 million a year console sales until its fourth year and the userbase exploded in size.

CharlesDCI4982d ago

These revisionists are just confusing Sony's competition not having what it took to compete with the PS2 with having absolutely no competition at all.

You know, the way the Xbox 360 started this gen. lol

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Simon_Brezhnev4982d ago

I'm not even clicking the link all they do is cause more drama. I bet they took what he said out of context like always.

NeoBasch4982d ago

Probably, regardless, I honestly do believe the PS3 exclusives have far outnumbered the PS2 exclusives in terms of quality.

Uncharted > Jak and Daxter
inFamous > Sly Cooper
Killzone 2 & 3 > Killzone

We still got Ratchet and Clank, but also have Resistance on top of it. Still got Gran Turismo. I thought God of War 3 was the best yet. Heavenly Sword was a welcome addition. Demon Souls has no equivalent. MotorStorm is a new IP, which is better than none. Same for LittleBigPlanet.

Sony has more than delivered.

As for sales, like you said, all it does is cause more drama. At this point, I don't even care what other gamers buy. I enjoy the PS3 and that's that. I don't need my console to sell 100+ million units for me to appreciate it, as this headline implies.

Nitrowolf24982d ago

Wow it's been a while since we heard from Phil

MajestieBeast4982d ago

Trying to revive atari and thats a hard thing to do.

All_4_One4982d ago

Well, to be fair, most consoles are going to have a hard time matching 150 million worldwide sales, that`s kind of obvious, don`t you think? Why talk about PS3 matching PS2 when the PS3 just barely hit the 4 year mark?

And in terms of games, again, the PS2 has the biggest library of any home console, over 2000 games. It`s not exactly going to be walked all over by a console that is younger and takes more resources to make games.

Make these statements in 4-5 years, when things actually become comparable.