No more third-party exclusives "ever again", predicts Pachter

Video games analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that we'll never see Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 exclusives from third-party publishers "ever again", adding that he believes the recent Xbox 360-exclusive Splinter Cell: Conviction will eventually see a PS3 release six months or a year down the line.

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Chris3993125d ago (Edited 3125d ago )

So is a broken watch, twice each day, but whatever. Patch speaks the truth in this case.

Besides, this forced 1st/ 2nd party software to shine even brighter, which only benefits gamers.

Edit: @ below. A timed exclusive is not a real exclusive. What are you basing your reasoning upon? In the past few years we've seen FFXIII, SO4, RE:5, Oblivion, Bioshock, etc. get their ports. The only real 3rd party exclusives we'll probably see moving forward are Japanocentric games on the Wii/ PS3 that have no chance of success in the West (same could be said for heavily themed Western FPSes and such).

Wrathman3125d ago

horse sh1t. i dont doubt that splinter cell may go to the ps3 eventaully..maybe. it wouldnt be the first splinter cell on a sony system. but no more 3rd party exclusives!!!? i doubt it.MS has got rid of so many 1st party studios,it leads me to believe its a damn sight cheaper to buy a 3rd party exclusive than it is to run a 1st party studio.

so this practice will continue unless MS can train up the call centre staff in pakistan to make games for $9 a day.

Kratos Spartan3125d ago

predicts Kratos. Now let's see how right I am.

UNCyrus3125d ago

What about Valkyria Chronicles and the Yakuza franchise? Hell... the majority of what SEGA publishes!

Palodios3125d ago

Epic got paid for Gears exclusivity for a trilogy. They can't break the contract, and Pachter himself said that they probably regret it.

I do however think that he's overlooking some key things, for example, there are ps3 3rd party exclusives that don't leave japan.

Icyhot3125d ago

Well if this really happens, then it's gonna hurt the 360 more than the PS3.

But there will always be people who will be exclusive like Epic for the 360 and Insomniac for the PS3. Maybe eventually even they will jump ship, but still I doubt there will be a 100% alliance to have no 3rd party exclusive... MS themselves won't let that happen cause if they do, then PS3 will own them via first party.

But it's somewhat true as well. As of now, both the install bases are really near in number and going exclusive means leaving at least 36-40 million out which can be a huge set back. As the install bases reaches 50-60 million in a years time, the 3rd party publishers will again be in a fix of what to do....

Inside_out3125d ago (Edited 3125d ago )

I gree with Mr Pachter...Third party exclusivity will become a thing of the past....there is too much money at stake...32+ million PS3's, 40+ million 360's and 65+ million Wii's....common sense...MW2 was available on ALL systems...made a fortune....developers are watching...

Now, the big question is...which system offers the most...I have all three and for me the 360 offers the best experience by on-line, best controller and best OS...Xbox live is the crown jewel...look at this wk...Tuesday play with the devs from Splinter Cell...Wednesday play with the devs from Battlefield,Thurs AW trailer on the 30th, Exclusive Split Second demo this morning ( downloaded already...OK, arcadie car game )...etc,etc...IGN, Xbow insider moves....every wk something new and refreshing....PSN has come a long way, still have a long way to go...

At the end of the day, people will decide which system offers them the best playing environment...Right now at least, most if not all multi-plats sell better on 360 ( in North America anyways )....KZ2 would have sold double what it sold on PS3....everybody knows that...MW2 360 sold double the PS3 version and got the DLC maps first before anybody else...DLC outsold all PS3 GAMES ( GOW3, HR, MAG ) this yr....Developers are noticing...just saying...

So yes, Exclusive third parties will be a thing of the past...Question...will Gears 3 be on PS3...will find out at E3...could be a bombshell.....E3 in June....

Chris3993125d ago (Edited 3125d ago )

Such as Yakuza and Valkyria Chronicles. Similarly, there will be PC-ports and FPSes that stay on the 360.

That said, we even have Japanocentric games like Agarest getting released on both the PS3 and 360. Should sell terribly on both platforms, but marginally worse on the 360 - I suspect that digital distribution will actually help the PS3 version in this case (as it's more accessible and still has all the features/ extras of the 360 retail version, it's cheaper too, I think).

3rd party exclusivity is relatively dead, I'm afraid.

Hill_billy3125d ago

I have to admit that this makes sense for the future. It may not be entirely true but what it proposes is that the only true exclusivity or at least the only exclusive that will remain exclusive are those made under a first party development team.

I think that in the future, exclusive will be primarily first party and the company that has the biggest house of first party devs will succeed in having the best of the best in terms of exclusives.

Pink_Uni3125d ago

1st party games became none exclusive

that's probably whats going to happen

super mario on the ps3 360, wii is already selling millions upon millions of console, its not going to hurt them at all if they get twice the amout of profit from 2 other consoles

nintendo software usually far exceeds the money made from the console anyways

OpenGL3125d ago

Modern Warfare 2 has sold approximately 10.5 million copies on the 360 and 7.7 million copies on the PS3. That is a far cry from your claim of selling twice as many copies.

Honestly though, the PS3 and 360 install bases are getting to the point where it doesn't make a lot of sense to exclude development on either platform. The Wii is a different beast though since it's hardware is so far behind the PS3 and 360, which are both pretty similar.

zag3125d ago

It'll never happen.

When PC goes Blu-ray completely (probably by the end of 2011) then it'll be 100% PC only gaming.

I think Ubisoft are wanting to go PC only gaming again main reason why they are doing the 100% net gaming, game releases. you can't do that stuff on consoles.

Be the 3rd re-incarnation of PC gaming when that happens.

TreMillz3125d ago

Some publishers want a game to aim a a certain audience and if said platform has majority of that audience then they would send it there. Look at 3D Dot Heroes, Silicon said the game was made on a multiplatform engine, but the publisher said, PS3 only. I believe because PS3 fans are more interested in RPG, than 360 who are more towards the shooter and action genre. Also patcher, you forgot about the almighty dollar. Yes once a publisher sees all the $$$, then you know what happens.

vhero3125d ago

Gears of war?? That's your best example?? No exclusive deal on the latest game and no definite word so we could see it come to the PS3 6 months after 360 or whatever so he could be right there however he is clearly wrong here there are still 3rd party devs like Level 5 out there who will never release there games on 360.

jamesgtaiv3125d ago

Get a job dude. Make an honest living like the rest of us. Do you really want to have to tell your grandchildren that you make a living off of pulling speculation out of your ass?

Persistantthug3125d ago

For Agent on the PS3, There was some sort of contractual obligation and/or extra incentive on behalf of Sony.

Persistantthug3125d ago

I've been saying and predicting this for a year...ever since Sony made it's 13 million unit 2009-2010 fiscal forecast.

Pachter may have gotten a little reckless using absolutes and all, but his general theme and idea is spot on.

However, he did cover himself by saying, "They'd be giving up way too much unless Microsoft is willing to pay up" and "I don't think Microsoft is willing to pay up what it's going to take to ignore that whole PS3 crowd".

Most companies want and need both "pots", even spit talking, mod making VALVE has shown this.

darthv723124d ago

maybe looong time ago. If you are a 1st or 2nd party dev then obviously you made games that were exclusive to whatever platform you developed for. If your intent was to be a 3rd party then it was a stance of neutrality and you made games for any platform that was interested but not solely specific.

If you are a 3rd party dev then it makes sense to broaden your horizon by making versions of your software for as many platforms as you see fit. The one thing about being a 3rd party dev though is the possibility that you could get locked into becoming a 1st or at least 2nd party dev for one platform if they feel your work is worthy.

HolyOrangeCows3124d ago (Edited 3124d ago )

It's definitely come to the point that you can't ignore any of the platforms. The PS3 and 360 have large install bases and with PC gaming becoming more and more accessible every day,

it's not easy to ignore any of them.
Unless you're getting a fat stack of cash from one of the big three.

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Anon73493125d ago (Edited 3125d ago )

Just go home. You don't know what you're doing.

I can think of nearly 10 3rd party exclusives that are going to come out in 2010-2012...

The only time you've ever been right patcher is when you were telling us that grass was green, you stated the obvious, and even then you were wrong sometimes.

You're an old hag, and you just need to go home.

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"Xbox 360 has seen multiple console-exclusives from third-party publishers, including the timed-exclusive launches of BioShock and GTA IV: Episodes From Liberty City, plus the recent Metro 2033 and Mass Effect 2."

-Quote from link

You don't know what the word "exclusive" means do you? There's no such thing as "console-exclusives" because that implies it's only on consoles, which is not the case.

All of the games the website mentioned are better on PC too, comparing the PC version of Mass Effect 2 with the 360 version is like comparing a DS with a PS3.

masterg3124d ago

Of course he is talking about future games. Not games already announced.

sid4gamerfreak3125d ago

*facepalm*, why Pachter, why?

TheMART3125d ago

Oreally mr. bright guy...

Its very obvious that a PS3 and 360, both around 30 to 40 mln. sold, are too large markets each to exclude on or the other for 3rd party devs. Unless they get support in the form of a bag of money, or like MS also does, do extreme marketing for a 3rd party dev and support them in the process of development.

Its a process we've already seen for the past years to develop, where the online component is the thing that differentiates the machines and the extra software features brought on both machines with updates. Oh and ofcourse, there will be exclusives I bet, which will be inspired because Natal and Move are both different devices for doing motion control. Some games that work on Natal won't work on Move that well and vise versa. Don't forget about XBLA/PSN downloadable games also, some games don't work on the other system because of specific stuff like Flower/motion DS3 or just because a developer doesn't have the resources to release on both online services.

The Maxx3125d ago

Not sure why you are getting disagrees. (other than it's the open zone where ignorance runs rampant). But everything you said is correct.

JasonPC360PS3Wii3125d ago

Yet Mr Pachter forgets about other 3rd party exclusives Left 4 Dead, Gears of War, Mass Effect, Shadow Complex and Dead Rising 2 prequel. How many times does UBI need to Deny SCC on the PS3? they just did again like 2 days ago.

Pachter is like a droid always wishing for Xbox games on the PS3. Droids must be tired of watching Movie Rain and 6 hour long SP only God of War 2.5.

The Iron Sheik3124d ago

LOL @ jason's post. The first 3 games you mentioned are all available on other platforms that run them better than the 360.

And you shouldn't be talking game length after Splinter Cell's 5 hour campaign.

JasonPC360PS3Wii3124d ago

Splinter Cell has campaign, co-op and MP while GOW3 has a 6hr SP and nothing else.

The Iron Sheik3124d ago (Edited 3124d ago )

It does and it is also not included in the $60 that the disc costs. Nice try though.

And GOW3 is more like 10-12 hours long on normal. If you play on easy and rush through it maybe it could be done in 8.

Mo0eY3124d ago

Yet Mr Pachter forgets about other 3rd party exclusives multiplatform, multiplatform, multiplatform, Xbox Live game and multiplatform prequel. How many times does UBI need to Deny multiplatform on the PS3? they just did again like 2 days ago.

Pachter is like a droid always wishing for Xbox games on the PS3. Droids must be tired of watching exclusive game and 6 hour long SP only exclusive game.

avengers19783124d ago

This is Patcher people, we should all just ignore him.
Like HHG

AngryTypingGuy3124d ago

Honestly, do most people buy those games for PC? No. They're Microsoft exclusives, but if you want to play them on a console, you have to have a 360.

GenerationWinner3124d ago (Edited 3124d ago )

must be officially the most ignorat fanboy on n4g now. Some one hand him over the donkey hat. Man ur allways falling on your face when u comment shame some people dont know how to answer you properly but i dont like to waste my time with people like you. Maybe 1 day i will so i hope ur prepared.

Edit: Sir ken whatever is another one.

Go play games but as allways no games to play on ps 2.5 which is still way behind down the road 20 miles back. Soon it will be 40 miles down the road.

The Iron Sheik3124d ago

Ignorant? Like naming yourself Generation Winner when the 360 is in second place? I love how 360 fanboys just ignore things like the Wii so they can say they are in 1st place. Or The PC so they can claim games as exclusive.

AngryTypingGuy3123d ago

You just don't want to acknowledge console exclusives so it looks like the 360 has less exclusives than it really does. The PS3/PC combo is great if you're a PC gamer, but the mainstream is console only. And as consoles become more powerful, it will only continue.

The Maxx3123d ago

You are absolutely right because it's so much more accurate saying 360 is in 2nd and the PS3 is in 3rd than it is to say 360 is in 1st and PS3 is in 2nd....

Which ever way you put it....the PS3 is still in last.

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knifefight3125d ago

I can never figure out why anyoe cares what this guy thinks.

poindat3125d ago

I read his predictions so I can laugh at him.

BeaArthur3125d ago

I don't even think he tries anymore. He just makes up crap.

solidjun53125d ago

I agree. He pretty much throws $#!T over the wall and hope something hits. It's similar to guy talking game to 1000 girls on a saturday where he'll eventually get one girl to bite.

BeaArthur3125d ago

That's a very good analogy. To be fair though most analyst's are full of it. The percentage of times they are correct is very low. They are basically professional guessers.

solidjun53125d ago

True. I'll agree. Most of them are full of it and their percentage of guesstimation is usually low. Especially this guy (patcher) who seems to be everywhere and videogame websites/magazines love posting his prediction. He's full of it. Now if their guesses are high like a Bernie Madoff, then I would give pause for a minute.

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