Is the Wii dying?

Stevie Lim......Ming wants Wii dead

Every hack, pundit and fanboy has taken to aiming a good solid kicking in the Wii's direction. Many have chosen to simply ignore it in the hopes that it will cease to exist. Nintendo have apparently lost the plot, dropped the ball, slipped up and fallen behind in the hardware war and it is hard to read such articles without the accompanying mental image of Ming the Merciless cackling away into a crystal ball whilst screaming 'I told you so!'

[Saaking]

No, the only console that is "dying" is the failbox.

[WenisWagon]

Come on now, this article is about the Wii not the PlayStation 3.

[n4f]

but in the reality of the real world :no
i would say x360 but it outsell the ps3 in u.k or us(not sure which)
but then some will say the ps3 is dying, still for the first time it outsold the wii and did 1m(which is high)
if you say the wii, this week it outsold everything again.

and no motion is not a fad saying that is like saying that natal/''Ps3wand'' is a fad

its certainly not dying if you look at the catalog of game comming

[Isaac]

The Wii is not a fad, but it is "just a novelty" (not like it's a bad thing). As soon as the novelty wears off, Nintendo is gonna have to find a new novelty to keep themselves on record profit levels as they are now. However, they are going to have to adapt their business model to the future, which is online. As far as that goes, they are way behind their competitors. The question is, will they ever catch up? Will they still remain leaders?

Nintendo is certainly in a good position now, as they caught both Sony and Microsoft by surprise. The problem with the PSWand and Natal is that they have to catch up to the Wiimote in terms of install base, and they may never do that. However, I am certain that Microsoft and Sony are learning organizations, and that just as we speak they are developing their next-generation interfaces. Natal and PSWand are probably devices to make nintendo think that they are only interested in mimicking Nintendo's success. However, as Sony and Microsoft have learned, they need to disrupt the market with innovative user interfaces. Nintendo won't be the only "unique" kid on the block, so they're gonna have to either return to the business model of having all the technologies converging and then some (because Sony and Microsoft will certainly copy them, aside of offering something unique), or offer something so unique that they will be the "best" in terms of novelty factor (which is not necessarily quality as some Wii fanboys want to imply).

I would love to see Nintendo's software take advantage of Sony and Microsoft's hardware. It happened to Sega, so you never know. Just remember that Nintendo's relationship with third parties is mediocre at best, since third party software makers have to fight for half (or less) of the attach rate, and what's worse is that they have to do it with either shovelware or truly disruptive software (which is hard to come by when hardware is static) and that they are truly behind times in terms of technology (except user interfaces). 3rd parties can't just make classic games or core games as many core gamers don't buy a Wii for core games, and those that buy a Wii buy mostly Nintendo games or exclusive games (i.e. not ports from PS3 or 360 which are bound to be inferior), but even then they are very few (no wonder The Conduit, Okami, Bully, MadWorld, etcetera bombed).

This means that as soon as 3rd parties have the opportunity to ditch Nintendo for Sony and/or Microsoft like they did in the late 90s, they WILL, unless their software manages to sell better. While it is selling *some* software*, it should be selling a lot more considering the price of the console, the games, and the novelty factor. To put things in perspective, 3rd parties sell 5 games per PS3 @60 Dollars/Euros (more in Europe and Japan), 6 games per 360 @60 dollars/euros (more in America), while with Wii they only sell 3 per Wii @50 dollars/Euros (of which more than 2 are shovelware trash).

On a more positive note, Nintendo's cash will serve as a warchest in case they want to go head to head with Microsoft and Sony's online infrastructures.

[IdleLeeSiuLung]

If dying is having sales on par with the PS3 whom just had a major price cut and a revamp, then I think dying doesn't sound so bad!

[rockleex]

Both Nintendo and Microsoft had to cut the price of their consoles directly after the PS3's price cut.

But let's just forget about that and make it seem like the PS3 was the only console that received a price cut this year.

Not to mention, the revision was necessary in order for Sony to finally cut the PS3's price down to $299. It was not just for looks.

[Mahr]

"Both Nintendo and Microsoft had to cut the price of their consoles directly after the PS3's price cut."

Lovely use of the post hoc fallacy, right there.

[asdr3wsfas]

"This means that as soon as 3rd parties have the opportunity to ditch Nintendo for Sony and/or Microsoft like they did in the late 90s, they WILL, unless their software manages to sell better. While it is selling *some* software*, it should be selling a lot more considering the price of the console, the games, and the novelty factor. To put things in perspective, 3rd parties sell 5 games per PS3 @60 Dollars/Euros (more in Europe and Japan), 6 games per 360 @60 dollars/euros (more in America), while with Wii they only sell 3 per Wii @50 dollars/Euros (of which more than 2 are shovelware trash)."

You completely ignored the much higher development costs on HD systems to reach that conclusion. HD games require more detail and hence more art and better graphics programming. This costs millions more per game. Many games that don't require that level of detail will remain on wii for that reason. As will risky new titles and low budget niche studios.

Shovelware trash? Man I own 34 wii games now and I want so many more. If you spent 1 hour looking on amazon instead of reading reviews by ps3/xbox fans you'd realize how wrong that statement is. For god sakes PS2 has Petz: Horsez. PS2 has plenty of crap titles for kids and stupid moronic cash in games. But no one calls the library shovelware trash!

Like boomblox, samba de amigo, trauma center, nights, ghost squad, HOTD games, super monkey ball, batallion wars, or ravin rabbids are shovelware trash...if you had more friends to play party games with you'd realize they're more fun than watching some obese dude manage encumbrance in fallout.

[Mahr]

"Just remember that Nintendo's relationship with third parties is mediocre at best"

If that statement were even remotely true, developers would be deserting the system en masse and we'd be seeing all sorts of in development Wii titles being shuttled to the other consoles. We're not seeing that sort of thing at all.

Remember when Monster Hunter Tri was originally going to be a Wii game and then Capcom moved it to the PS3 instead? Of course you don't, because that never happened.

"since third party software makers have to fight for half (or less) of the attach rate"

This might mean something if attach rates weren't functionally meaningless compared to absolute sales.

This might *also* mean something if the Wii hadn't moved something like three times as much software as the PS3 at last count, for example. (As of July of this year, the Wii stood at 384.09 million; PS3 at 118.5 million)

"and what's worse is that they have to do it with either shovelware"

Shovelware by definition isn't meant to sell very much.

"or truly disruptive software"

....What?

"(which is hard to come by when hardware is static)"

Hardly.

When an artist is having problems, he sometimes blames his tools, or his material.

Almost always, however, the problem lies within his technique.

"3rd parties can't just make classic games or core games"

Sure they can. The new Contra game's been the number one seller on the Wiiware channel for the past several weeks now.

"exclusive games... but even then they are very few (no wonder The Conduit, Okami, Bully, MadWorld, etcetera bombed)."

Huh? Neither Bully nor Okami were Wii-exclusive, and the latter sold almost exactly the same number of units as it did on the PS2. And if we're being fans of meaninglessly-imposed ratios like attach rates, the percentage of Wii-owners who own Okami is nearly three times that of PS2 owners.

As for The Conduit and MadWorld, Sega -- you know, the people who actually published the games in question? -- are on the record calling both of those games successes and have affirmed on numerous instances that they will continue such support.

"I would love to see Nintendo's software take advantage of Sony and Microsoft's hardware. It happened to Sega, so you never know"

What? No, we do know. Inasfar as it is possible to know anything, we know that that's not going to be happening anytime soon.

It happened to Sega because as a company, Sega's profits were consistently low (and even in the negative in the end) when they were a force in the hardware market.

In terms of money generated, Nintendo is not, nor has it ever been, in a position even remotely close to Sega *at its best*.

http://www.vgchartz.com/for...

Do you see how Nintendo's numbers are often a completely different color from, and tend to have more digits than, any of the other companies here at any given point in time?

*That's how we know*.

[EvilTwin]

oobob -- Lots of people conveniently forget the development costs of the consoles; they conflate how much the console costs to make and how much a dev kit costs versus how much the actual cost is of developing a new game stretched out over months. I defer to EA's John Riccitiello:

"Development is typically a third to a fourth as much for a Wii game than it is for a PS3 or an Xbox 360 game."
http://www.develop-online.n...
http://www.joystiq.com/2009...

And that's a quote from THIS year, not 2006 or 2007.

Wii games cost 25% to 33% as much as PS3/360 games because they don't require paying people for a much longer time to develop art and implement the graphics tech. The price of technology always comes down, but the cost of specialized human labor doesn't.

In that respect, I understand why Nintendo may not be rushing to create an HD console. Especially for games like Zelda. They spend 5 to 6 years per LoZ. Imagine how much that will cost when they're employing two to three times as many people (for graphics alone) in hi-def.

[Samus HD]

Why you keep writing this,! Wii is the first
and is selling fast Ps3 is going to be second Xbox Will be dead

[Ghostflight]

Project Fatal will determine this.

[Nihilism]

no it won't

[Nihilism]

for the love of god are there that many stupid journalists...don't make me grab the link where sony and microsoft have lost hundreds of millions of dollars in the last few years and nintendo made more than a billion...

ok twist my arm

http://nintendodpad.com/Wel...

[Sarcasm]

Umm... The article is about the "Wii" dying, not Nintendo. Nintendo could have made 8 gazillion trillion nathan fillion dollars for the last 3 years but even with the Wii price cut, it didn't move as much as I think they'd hope.

[Nihilism]

the 2 are one, nintendo's current console aka the wii, is raking in the cash, only console's that sell well make money, so no the wii is not dying

[iceman06]

I understand your point...but disagree with your assertion that "only console's that sell well make money". The PS3 and 360 have sold well...not as well as Wii by any means, but well. (both above 22 million consoles) The REASON that the Wii makes money is NOT solely based on it's "staggering" sales, but the fact that it is cheap. No, not cheaply made, but cheap to produce. The internal parts that make up a Wii are NOT on par with the more expensive parts that are put into the PS3 and 360. Therefore, from launch, the Wii was able to make money from it's sales. Whereas, the competition had to "struggle" to reduce production costs in order to try to break even on hardware. Each company chose what to go to war with in this generation...and the Wii has come out on top...for now.

[Whitefox789]

lol agreed if Nintendo is good at one thing its making money.

[cheapndirty]

Ask the other 'me too' companies if the Wii is dying. More like setting the pace.

All of you arm chair analysts that are predicting the Wii's demise do not know what you are talking about. Most of you bet against Nintendo from day one .Oops. The Wii is not going anywhere, and the Wii HD will do equally well. And all of this Nintendo dominating will more than likely not even have a single 1080p game.

[Shendow]

Wii had its run an it was all good but its time for a new system from Nintendo, PS3 will catch up soon an I'm betting it has already past the Wii after putting out a FF13 PS3 Slim model with Lighting on it.

Wii is most likely going to fall 2nd, say as much as you like about how it isn't ture. But the Wii isn't selling as good as it use to an seeing how no one had a PS3 because of the price.

Well that just makes more sells for PS3 over Wii's, I might get a Wii but that is only if my gf isn't living with me and the reason why is because she has the Wii system.

[ChickeyCantor]

"Well that just makes more sells for PS3 over Wii's, I might get a Wii but that is only if my gf isn't living with me and the reason why is because she has the Wii system."

Deep down, you are buying it for yourself xD

[Ron_Burgundy]

one can only hope

[FinalomegaS]

before it dies, please just release MH tri, Metroid M,RS2 etc...

[asdr3wsfas]

Yeah, it's only winning by several million. Are you guys retarded? Honestly, can you count? Did you see the graph on here the other day where wii games outsold both other systems combined?

If you want to program you better learn to count. Wii is dominating and the recent price cut bumped it back up. Fastest selling video game console dying...morons, all of you.

[Fierce Musashi]

The Wii is no where near dying. So you mean to tell me that with the loads of quality titles still to come in 2010 that the Wii is dying?

Is the Wii dying? Only in a fanboy's wettest of dreams.

[MEsoJD]

the average consumer and nintendo faithful buy it without question.

Logic does not exist with them. ^_^

[asdr3wsfas]

How does logic apply to preference? I want good 2d games. What logic suggests I should buy a ps3 or xbox to play them when nintendo has most if not all quality 2d titles?

What if I want a 3d game with old school gameplay? Again, nintendo wins. No logic supports me choosing a ps3 or xbox.

What if I want point and shoot controls because dual analog sucks for aiming? Or a marble/mercury/monkey ball title with intuitive controls? A boxing game that actually resembles punching? A tennis game with actual swinging and spin? How about a bowling game with spin? A golf game that is like actually playing? Again, wii wins hands down no argument.

You can argue logic all you want, but it doesn't hide that you are assuming values from which to begin your analysis. In your case you prize prcoessing power, online, and graphics. So logically you would pick another system. If we value controls, old gameplay, and 2d titles, we would instead logically choose the wii.

The reason you chumps at n4g and industry developers/gamers/other console makers are not getting the wii, its staying power, why it won, and why nintendo hasn't died is because you all assume that values are shared among all gamers when really nintendo created a system that had values that appealed to lapsed and non-gamers. And no logic dictates why I would prefer 3d games over 2d games or graphics over controls. That's a preference the industry ignored for years with the exception of nintendo. Their lack of understanding comes from assumed values shared in the culture of current and former gamers, not LAPSED or NON gamers.

Nintendo reached out to us and now I own a ps3. I like the wii better overall because of those old games. I still love the ps3 and some of the titles on it are incredible. But if I personally enjoy 2d games more, why would I play a ps3 title when Muramasa destroys most of them? The entire reason I have the ps3 is for 2d fighters like sf4 that are lacking on the wii! Or games with innovative controls like lair that most core ps3 owners don't like because they value traditional controls. I love the innovative gameplay and the fact I can pick it up for 16 dollars! LBP is probably the one game both core PS3 owners and I like and that's because it's a very well done (essentially) 2d platformer with very original gameplay!

Calling it logic is insidious when it's clear you don't understand that the choice of system begins with values about video gaming that are driven by preference and then followed by logic to make a choice. Of course these sites rag on the wii - they like ps1 and ps2 games. What about us older gamers who miss SNES or the newer gamers who think controllers suck for tennis games? Obviously they'll prefer the wii - to claim it's illogical for them to do so shows you're only using that word to hide your prefernces. And that you don't realize what you prefer is a value because you hang out on sites like n4g where the values are shared and assumed to be in common.

After GC I'd argue there are almost no nintendo faithful. No one bought that system and yet all these sites demand nintendo resume that approach to gaming at their own risk. Laughable really. I hope the wii continues to dominate and they keep with this innovative approach to gaming, which they will given their history (power glove, donkey konga, etcetcetc).

If I want a game with new gaming values, I'll play my ps3. I won't demand that my friends stop playing snes, nes, genesis, or wii because "logic" dictates they'd enjoy a ps3 or xbox more.

The wii has outsold the other consoles considerably. It is the only console not sold at a loss. Nintendo games sell better than ANY games on ANY other platform for an even higher profit - wii fit and wii play being the 1st and 3rd highest selling games this last decade. It is the fastest selling console in history. Nintendo destroyed and with the recent boost in wii sales due to the price drop and upcoming Mario Bros wii title, Other M, Sin and Punishment 2, and wii fit plus, the wii is hardly dying - in fact it is making Nintendo richer than they've been in years or perhaps ever.

It has won hands down both in terms of sales and profits, and anyone who think it's going to disappear is indulging a fantasy.

[EvilTwin]

Well put, oobob.

And for the overall discussion: no, the Wii isn't dying. Not any more than the other consoles, that is.

I would say that ALL THREE home consoles are past their respective primes. The "OMG factor" is pretty much gone; the eye candy is not going to exponentially improve until we get new consoles altogether, and we've already seen most of the big guns fired -- Halo, GTA, Zelda, Mario, etc.

The caveat is better motion controls. The great lightsaber game has not yet been created, and there is no reason for it not to exist with Motion Plus on the market.
Natal and the Wand are going to expand the horizons on the HD consoles, but it's going to take awhile to fully realize those peripherals. By the time devs "get it," we're probably going to be on the cusp of some new consoles.

[asdr3wsfas]

You're right about the great light saber game, but wii sports resort shows that the wii could currently do it. I honestly hope ps3 incorporates motion controls considerably into the new titles. This would be a benefit I didn't expect when I originally picked up the new system.

I doubt that will happen because of experiences like Lair, but it god I would love it. I'd actually play FPS on the system with wii style aiming and I'd probably pick up a tennis game for it. Fight Night with motion controls would be SICK.

Of course, old school game play would still be on the wii, as would odd titles with low production costs (mercury meltdown revolution). The low dev costs on wii allow for risks you can't take on other systems. Those innovative games will keep me coming back to the wii as well as nintendo exclusives and 2d titles, but of course motion controlled ps3 would eat more of my time...

[Fierce Musashi]

Much respect, old-schooler.

[EvilTwin]

oobob -- Fight Night would definitely be amazing. And if they made a GTA on PS3 with motion control aiming for gunplay, I'd be sold.
(Hell, if Rockstar did a "San Andreas Stories" for Wii, I'd be there for it on day one.)

But there is certainly something to be said for keeping Wii at 480P because of the cost factor. It's dirt cheap to make games on a platform that's using souped up tech from last gen.

No More Heroes did well enough to warrant a sequel, and if we're to believe Sega, MadWorld has finally turned a profit. So if you want to make a truly oddball game, Wii is the place to do it. Not only will dev teams NOT go bankrupt, but they'll probably end up pocketing some green.

...so now we're just waiting on that lightsaber game. RS2 looks to be promising, but there's something special about a good Star Wars game.

[asdr3wsfas]

I agree entirely with the cheap dev costs. It makes unique games possible at a fraction of the risk. I'm thinking of stuff like world of goo...NMH to some extent, even ported pc games like Da Blob.

[cheapndirty]

OK what is an oobob? Is that type of gerbil or something?
8.1 could not have been said better. Most of these n4g 'gamers' assume we all value the same things in gaming, and worse expect everyone to value what they do. It is so deepy ingrained in their thinking that it is not suprising that most of the comments on n4g are what they are. Its sad and funny at the same time.

I am picking up another Wii ( I gave mine to my nieces,only to have them break it) and expect to own around 100 Wii titles in the next 2 years. HD gaming is nice, but it is not the only kind of gaming that I like.

[Cliff Forster]

The Wii has its place. My home gaming setup is a high end gaming PC for Dad's titles (me), and a Wii for when I play with my wife and kids.

Say what you will about the Wii, but nobody can deny its innovative, and that it's introduced a wider audience to gaming, and that is a good thing.

[Whitefox789]

If nothing else the Wii has made Nintendo richer then when its original console came out (considering Wii sports has outsold Super Mario Bros and Duck Hunt).

[Shnazzyone]

of course it ends with no solid conclusion. I only have one gripe with this whole opinion based article...

"We have a 2D Mario platformer that looks incredible! We have a new Mario Galaxy to look forward to next year! We have a re-imagining of the Metroid franchise coming! No More Heroes 2! ... and nothing else."

Uhhh what about monster hunter tri, Tatsunoko vs capcom, RE: darkside chronicles, Epic Mickey, Dragonquest 10, FFCC: Crystal Bearers and Red steel 2? Not to mention Muramasa: demon blade and Modern Warfare wii? I recognise he is making a point but at least make sure you aren't instantly avoiding basic research to try and slyly perpetuate the concept the wii has no games. Guess what... The wii has games now. That actually is no longer a reason to scorn the system. In fact the only reason left to scorn the system is flat out ignorance and HD fanboyism.

But who cares. It's just another waste of time internet article. These things are a dime a dozen.