In a presentation at the recent MI6 Game Marketing Conference, Jason Anderson, director of research for the International Development Group (IDG) revealed the research company's predictions for the near future of console sales, and Gamasutra was present to relay his intriguing predictions.
Anderson began by saying that the U.S. alone accounted for $10.2 billion in revenue, for both hardware and software this year. (Going forward, all statistics and numbers mentioned here concern the U.S. exclusively.) He pointed out a slow decline in PC retail sales, and a rise in handhelds. He then moved onto a particularly interesting topic, next-gen hardware sales.
For 2007, IDG predicts Microsoft dominance for the next two years in the North American next-gen game hardware market, at least in terms of installed base. The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.
funny, thats just what i predicted!
This may be good news for MS. By the year 2009 when the 360 slips into second place, MS will probably be promoting their third system. What would Sony do then?
Well there you go lametime/ssj
360 will be on top for the rest of it's life cycle which is 5 years. Main developping console 360. Ports go to PSZero.
For 2008 the prediction runs a little bit short though in my opinion. Already 5 million sold up till now, 10 million at the beginning of 2007 for sure. The rest of the year it must be for sure be getting the 18 million done.
I think this guy forgot to mention that untill MGS4 comes out the PSZero won't have many system sellers compared to 360 Gears of War, Forza 2, Halo 3 and so on.
At the rate that the system is still selling, it's more likely to have sold a little over 20million by the end of '07, beginning of '08, especially since there will most likely be a price drop sometime in '07.
One Thing the annalyst aren't taking into consideration is if you have the market lead for the first 2 to 3 years...developers will choose your system and top games draw more people. So 360's market share will only increase due to more games, price drops, ect....They aren't taking that into consideration. But its nice to see annalyst budge from their initial opinion that ps3 was going to outsell the xbox 360...They finally admitted half of what will really happen...Yes 360 will lead but the lead will grow due to more games, lower pricing, and live anywhere....And yes...by the time the ps3 lowers its price to 400 dollars. The xbox 720 will be preparing a launch....Microsoft did everything right this time around.