Analyst: Prepare For Sluggish Spring, But No New Consoles Until 2013

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that we will not enter the next console generation until 2013. Investors are getting a bit worried as video game software sales seem to have peaked for the current generation. I don't think they have, but when compared to last year, sales are down in 2009. Now, some people could freak out and start looking toward the PS4 and Xbox 720, but remain calm.

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Mike134nl3482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

But still that is a very long time, considering myself as someone who would buy a "new next generation console".

I wouldn't like to wait that long, technology keeps advancing at a very rapid speed. That said I would like to see a new next generation console in 2011 and at the latest 2012.

Despite I do agree what patcher says that they might splinter their audience. I believe Microsoft knows that very well and therefore is and will be aiming the xbox360 more and more to the casual market.

Bringing me to the hardcore audience if they want to prevent sony to capture this hardcore market, what better than to launch a new next generation console.

With that in mind 2011 is a good window for Microsoft too launch a new console and with an announcement in 2010 this may prevent hardcore xbox360 owners considering a ps3.

Pennywise3482d ago

I think that would be too early and would kill mS out of the console business. No ones wants to upgrade every few years. NOONE.

Lfmesquite3482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

This gen's been kinda weird. In the past next gen always meant better graphics and more realism. It went from adventures like Mario and Zelda to adventures like Metal Gear solid and Resident Evil.

But now? It's like it's reaching a new limit. And then there's the whole Wii thing and handhelds that have been way more popular than XBOX 360 and PS3.

If It was my job, I wouldn't even be sure what next generation would be. Is it yet more graphics, more online play, more hard drive, more downloads?

I need more time for this generation to saturate before I can be sure what's in demand for future consoles. I think it would be a mistake to make a new console prematurely without knowing which way the market is going.

Since the Wii has been so successful, does it make sense to try to build future consoles around something like that? I just don't know. I would hate to be the one planning next gen consoles right now.

The_Zeitgeist3482d ago

2013 is a long ways away. People will upgrade if they see something worthy. Honestly though On Live is going to start ruling the gaming world by then.

fire233482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

I really don't think OnLive will take off anytime soon, maybe in the future though. This is simply because right now it can only do up to 720p and could have many problems to start with. Compared to what decent rigs can play, it doesn't look like that good of a deal.

Lifendz3482d ago

At the rate MS is going the 360 might be a mere 50 bucks by then. I still think MS' next console is announced at next year's E3. Sony is sticking with PS3 for a long time.

50CALheadshot3482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

ps3 will be going strong just like ps2 has in this gen.

ms will come out early in an attempt to appear "in control" of next gen.

sony will come out after the competition and produce a console with superior technology and superior graphics.

nintendo will cater to kids again

Ju3482d ago

I see no reason for yet another generation. What for ? I mean, does it make the companies any more profit ? I doubt it will. At some point, if technology is dirt cheap, it makes sense. It makes sense to use the latest and most powerful tech as long as you can produce it for a price which current consoles costs. It makes sense to reduce game production costs more. But it doesn't make sense to just push technology for a new record price tag. For all of us, the console manufacturers to loose even more money (or putting an even higher price tag on it), the developers/publisher to increase development costs even more because the content required to become photo realistic is just extraordinary large and for us consumers, because the prices of games will once again increase. Who want's a $100 game ?

They can push current tech quite a bit. Tools are improving, cutting down development time. All things which would have to start over again with yet another generation. Won't happen any time soon...

Monchichi0253482d ago

Speak for youself Homie because I know "I" don't mind upgrading to a new console every few years. 5 Years with a console is more then enough for me!

But like I said, that's my own personal view, your entitled to your own. Just don't try to speak for all of us!

IcarusOne3482d ago

But Sony will be announcing a new console for 2011. I saw it in a dream. And my dreams are always correct.

People seem to be misunderstanding the concept of the 10 year console. This doesn't mean Sony won't be moving on for ten years. It just means they'll continue to support the PS3, just like they did with PS2.

We're certainly entering the window for console announcements, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the hammer drop at any point.

Baka-akaB3482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

No way . They are already dragging their feet for a price cut and getting some big momentum this year .
Fanboys like to bla bla about sony being third or dying , but they are making quite some money and will be even more this year .

I dont even see them releasing a new sku anytime soon for the ps3 .

Announcing a new console so soon would kill any trust their fanbase got into them (or left) given how their price logic and marketing was dictated by long term investement PR . It would invalidate everything they said about the ps3 .

Everyone knows that 10 years cycle probably wont prevent a new console entering in the middle of it , but it sure wont be as soon as what you're saying

RememberThe3573482d ago (Edited 3482d ago )

I have to respectfully disagree. I like have a console for a long time. It gets to a point where I start to have a kind of relationship with it. For instance, I love my PS2 more then most people, and I've got a lot of love for everyone.

I had this one girl I was talking to who actually got jealous of my PS2; had to cut her off quick. lol

Girl: "Why are you always on that thing? Why don't you spend time with me?!"
Me: "Shut up b*tch! I'm playing GTA!"

lol, I woulda got smacked up.

II-Reaper-II3482d ago

My predictions: PS4 in 2012 Xbox720 2011

rockleex3481d ago

But I know PS4 won't come till 2013 or even later.

Remember, the PS3 came 1 year later than the 360.

In my opinion, this generation is still a couple years away from its peak.

Hell, FFXIII hasn't even been released yet. GT5 hasn't been released yet. And sequels for the majority of the biggest franchises this generation hasn't even been released yet!

We have a long way to go before the next generation comes out.

badz1493481d ago

I was expecting that M$ will release their new console in 2010 at the latest. after the price cut resulting in the massive sales for the 360 later last year, I don't think that new console is necessary for now. There is really no point of M$ releasing a new contender while leading their main rival by quite a margin at the moment because that is not good business wise. This is not a battle like nVidia vs ATI for superior gfx. it's solely a battle for sales, not about being the leading edge in terms of technology! games are announced here and there for the PS3 and the quality and performance of their exclusives is more than always unquestionably better than most games on 360 but Sony is yet to announce the price cut. as a gamer with a PS3, I don't really care about the console pricing anymore because everything is about games now! I'm happy with games I have and those games I'll be getting later on this year like inFamous, Uncharted 2, R&C: ACiT and many more games for the coming years. but, when it comes to the battle for sales, what is more important is not how to satisfy the current owner, but how to attract new user! the easiest way is of course by the pricing and M$ is having the edge on that! I know that there is no way Sony can afford pricing the PS3 at 250 let alone 200 bucks but a mere $50-$100 cut will surely bring in some more sales to the PS3 camp!

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user94220773482d ago

I don't mind. Got a PS3 which should keep me going for quite a while.

nightelfmohawk3482d ago

Word up. PS3 is definitely an investment, and it's an investment that pays off by not having to upgrade for a long time.

Baka-akaB3482d ago

The economy crash changes everything though .
It didnt at first , and some still pretend it doesnt affect them (why would they say it anyway unless it serves them ?)

It's already forcing some publisher's hand in the choice of more proven franchise or game genre , instead of huge bets .

BX813482d ago

Would like to see the next gen of consoles in 2011

nightelfmohawk3482d ago

Could you imagine the games developers could make with that much time to gain experience developing for the PS3? Think of the games that came out much later for PS2 such as Shadow of the Colossus, God of War I and II, etc. We're barely in year 3 of PS3, and we already have amazing games released, to be released in 2009, and to be released in 2010. Imagine what PS3 games will look like during 2011 to 2016 or so. :O

MGOelite3482d ago

ill like a ps3 slim at about 2012-4 with a 260gb hardrive built in

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