Revised hardware sales forecast from IDC

Source: Dean Takahashi's Blog page.

Microsoft's Xbox 360 installed base of consoles sold is expected to grow from 10 million in 2006 to 19.8 million by the end of 2007 and 30.4 million by the end of 2008. The PS 3 suffered from launch problems but IDC expects it and all of the consoles to be successful. The PS 3 is expected to grow to 11.7 million by the end of 2007 and 24.5 million by the end of 2008. The Wii is expected to hit 13.3 million by the end of 2007 and 32.1 million by the en dof 2008. Between those three platforms, the market share in 2008 comes out to 35 percent for Microsoft, 28 percent for Sony, and 37 percent for Nintendo.

[BIadestarX]

Even if Sony wins the console war by 2010. This time around will be better than what Nintendo or Microsoft can ever hoped. If the PS3 would cost $200-$300 the story would be a lot different.

[highps3]

Gamers are becoming more nvolved with the companies more then games now a days.

[TheExodus]

Isn't a forecast normally based on existing trends that have been weighted for variables that could significantly alter these trends as they're projected over time? PS3 nearly catching Wii by the of 2007 strikes me as less of a forecast & more of a prediction. Were Sony to drop the HDD & BD-ROM in favor of a $299 SKU this might be possible, but short of that I'd say the future for PS3 doesn't look too bright, ever. MS has a new rev. of the 360 coming which has me wondering if they might shift the price of existing SKUs to the left & the new one to the right. I'm sure developers are going to concentrate their efforts on consoles where they stand a fighting chance to see a return on their investment. And by 2011 MS & Nintendo will be talking Next Generation, if not sooner, leaving us with a PS3 that's been so back ended with debt that we're either going to be stuck with a dated console for another 5 years or be forced to terminate our lease early by upgrading to a PS4 that rivals the price of an Alienware PC.

[ben hates you]

what would change there was a price drop for the 360

[TheMART]

I don't know about the Wii.

It's selling now, but it lacks good software. I mean the sport games are nice, but it's not able to hold up with that alone. What's else what is a AAA title?

I think the sales will see a slowdown, especially when more and more people get HDTVs in their houses and want HD gaming (PS3/360).

The 360 beating the PS3 the coming time is an easy fact. The PS3 on top in 2011? Oh hell that's when the next gen consoles will be getting out! 360 will lead in HD consoles, that's for sure. Thus it will get more exclusives etc.

[HaKeRsCanRotINHEL]

about right. I sure hope Micro$oft announces the release date and price of the black HDMI enabled 360 at GDC 07 !? :~]

[NextGen24Gamer]

20 million consoles in one year to take the lead from Microsoft. But its just predictions. I predict that the ps3 won't sell like hot cakes until the price drops to about 200 dollars. But by that time....if it even happens....the next wave of next gen consoles will be released. Me personally.....I always want the latest greatest. That was my initial reason for getting the ps3...it was hyped up to be the latest greatest....Well, I found out rather quickly the greatest had already been on the market for a year in the xbox 360....

It doesn't take a genious to see that the lead MS has will continue through the life of the console and expand once the 360 drops to the 199 and under price.

All MS needs to keep the lead and build on it is...

A. More Next Gen exclusive titles...BTW 2007 looks to be spectacular for MS.

B. The most competitive pricing. The first console..."excluding the Wii"...to hit under 200.

[StateofMind]

So they're basically expecting sales to stay the same for the next 3 years? I'm sorry, but I think that with everything from firmware updates, format victories, the HD movement, next-gen appearances of big titles(Halo, MGS, Mario) and the advent of an actual PS3 and Wii software lineup the sales trend will change drastically between now and the end of THIS year.

This isn't so much a forecast as it is, "Well...it looks like-"

[deadeyes99]

I want M$ to win this battle of the game consoles, I just hate those other hardcore japo consoles

[techie]

.

[deathtok]

Ouch. That video made me sad. I knew the answer to all those questions, they weren't hard.

[HaHa]

that the video does represent reality :( Americans know nothing aside from what the media tells them

[TheMART]

Why deepbrown is that rascist, when he only dislikes Japanese consoles?

He isn't saying anything about the people living there, does he?

You might even be worse then him with showing that video. You'll find stupid people everywhere. THe thing you are doing is generalizing all Americans as dumb.

More and more I get the feeling you try to score bubbles over nonsense you state. You try to come over as biased and walk the middle of the road. But in reality you make the worst posts around.

Can we get back to the forecast?

THe PS3 is still getting it's ass kicked though.

The numbers above are taken from VGAcharts. Just as trustworthy as this one:

http://nexgenwars.com/

Almost 11 million 360's sold, just about 1.5 million PS3's sold.

@ Deepbrown (below)

"As I said that is not my view of all Americans...I said that's how the rest of the world views Americans sometimes."

Where did you say that? I can't read it anywhere in the post above. Doesn't really matter even. It wasn't slightly racist in the beginning. He is talking about consoles not about people. If I like to see a PS3 burn, does that make me KKK?

So again, cut the crap

Back to the article again, it looks like Sony get's a beat up like Nintendo got some years ago. From nr. 1 to nr. 3. I think it's good for the business, Sony needs to rethink their proposition making with the Playstation (4)

[techie]

TheMart...what he said was I hate those "japo consoles" ...when both consoles are developed by companies from accross many countries, with representatives from America, Eurpoe, Asia.

And no what I showed was not worse. Your interpretation may be. As I said that is not my view of all Americans...I said that's how the rest of the world views Americans sometimes.

I make the worst posts around aye? Nah themart I think you've got that covered. I was offended with what the kid said...so I showed some love back. If your saying you don't like Japanese consoles...what is your reason for that? Because they are Japanese? Then that is racist. If the xbox360 was a Japanese console then you wouldn't like it. Doesn't make sense to me. If you say I want Microsoft to win because I don't like Sony or Nintendo then fair do's. But saying "I don't like japo consoles" then quite frankly you deserve everything you get thrown at you and I think themart you should see that too.

TheMart you'll be fighting for Microsoft even if it falters. I doubt you'd ever give props to the ps3 even if it did well...that's the difference. I'd like to see how it pans out personally and hell yeah the 360 is ahead of the ps3. Let's see what happens this year with the release of Halo etc.

[techie]

Ok themart. That is what I originally said...but I editted it.

And as I said. Listen here.

"If your saying you don't like Japanese consoles...what is your reason for that? Because they are Japanese? Then that is racist. If the xbox360 was a Japanese console then you wouldn't like it. Doesn't make sense to me. If you say I want Microsoft to win because I don't like Sony or Nintendo then fair do's. But saying "I don't like japo consoles" then quite frankly you deserve everything you get thrown at you and I think themart you should see that too."

[AuburnTiger]

It's amazing how somebody disagreed with 8.1's comment.

[anthonsh]

in the same spirit

http://www.youtube.com/watc...

[lil bush]

whos the mart anyway your just a fanboy that dedicated to the 360 and M$ and hate when sony gets any good news, and its not just that u come to the ps3 side and go on some viagra attack like dude its just games and consoles i meen your a little 3 no make that 2 1/2 years old mentallity like dude get a life seriously

[power of Green]

I don't think Wii will last and will not be a major player for too long. Sorry!.

[techie]

You don't think Wii will last? But you don't think it'll be a major player?...

I think the Wii will sell lots maybe because of price...but software sales I think might be quite poor...and that's where all the money is made isn't it?

[power of Green]

Just don't forget who's getting upset and insulting people for their opinions before you tell people to get a life. lol Many people over sea's will say they hate (Amer)ican electronics, games ect also.

[techie]

Weak. "deepbrowns not right". It is also wrong to say "I won't buy those Yank products". WHy the hell not!? As I said...any such comment is slightly offensive. it's not an issue. I've read plenty of offensive comments, from sexist to homophobic on this site. Would'v expected more and especially didn't think someone would disagree just because I've disagreed with their 360 fanboy posts. That really makes me hate the human race just a little bit more.

[power of Green]

Not to say this is proof of the reality on the street but i talk to dozens of people on XBL an they dont play it. (I put that dam thing in the closet" these are the words of a woman i talked to last night on XBL). I ask people how they feel about other console's on XBL all the time you'll be surpized how many people never owned Xbox1. I ask kind as a kind of loose poll.

[techie]

Yuh. You know I think you're right. They want something more...well they want games. I think the Wii is a console that you wouldnt really want to play alone...it's more of a getting involved with the friends and family thing...whereas playing an fps on the xbox is more of an "anti-social" occupation....if you get me.

I think Wii players will get the Nintendo made games that really make use of the controllers and then play those again and again and again...not really buying anything else, as they'll buy the games for their xbox or playstation. You think?

I can see everyone having a Wii in their house (no pun intended) but not spending too much money on it afterwards. Certainly can't see Manhunt 2 selling well on it.

[anthonsh]

People buy games for the consoles they own.

I know 6 people who have a Wii, 4 people who want one but cant find it, 1 person with an XBox360. Many of these people buy games on a regular basis, and there are no signs that their purchases for the Wii will be any different. The shocking thing for me is that NONE of these people owned a GameCube, so things are DEFINATELY improving for Nintendo.

I dont think there are as many people "out of the box" buying a Wii as Nintendo would have us think (none of my friends are in that group). I belive that those people, regardless of whether they're girlfriends, or mothers, are "influencing" the main gamer in their family to get a Wii, so that they can play "Wii Sports", or that new "Wii Sims" game that is coming out. I dont think that you'll find a significant drop in normal game sales because of this. Obviously I cant say anything about Japan, I dont understand anything about Japanese consumers.

I've also heard that it is cheaper to produce games for the Wii, but that was only on forum posts, so I dont know how accurate this information is.

[UrbanJabroni]

"I've also heard that it is cheaper to produce games for the Wii, but that was only on forum posts, so I dont know how accurate this information is."

No developer is allowed to/would be stupid enough to post the cost of their games, but just look at the market and throw in some common sense. There are many, many Wii games that are simple Playstation (or PSP, Ala Prince of Persia) ports with new controls. Pretty much any PS2 release is now hitting the Wii, and thus the cost is basically nill.

Also, take a look at the Wii's graphics. THE single most expensive aspect of video game development is the creation of art assets...levels, textures, character and static models. The Wii's inability to push serious polygons nor high resolution graphics like the PS3 and 360 means that games can be made for around the cost of a previous generation game (or if you use the Wii sport style, MUCH less).

A lot of Wii games right now (the non crappy ports) are just developer's pet projects. A studio will throw a small team of half a dozen on a project and see how it transpires. If things don't progress, the project is retooled or pulled at a minimal risk. And if just one of the pet projects hits, then the studio is looking at a return on their investment far greater than any AAA game. (Note for those ready to flame: return on investment != profit...it is a ratio of the cost of production of goods or services to the profit received).

[ChickeyCantor]

@deepbrown
you said: I think the Wii will sell lots maybe because of price...but software sales I think might be quite poor...and that's where all the money is made isn't it?"

well not really, NINTENDO it self makes a huge profit on each console they sell, even if the games wont sell....nintendo will stand ground......they make big money.

and btw, NEO GEO is coming to the Wii......=D<----thats a smile

[UrbanJabroni]

That is me agreeing with your smile. The only part that absolutely sucks is that we won't get online. I would kill to play those games (Windjammers baby) against my friends.

[UrbanJabroni]

As an owner of all 3 next-gen consoles, I really think the Wii gets an unfair rap on this board. It isn't just the mainstream press that has a sense of the Wii's impending success, just check out any given Wii story on Slashdot or the IGN or 1up podcasts. Have you heard of a single developer who hasn't commented on how much they would secretly like to make a game for the Wii?

The strange thing is, after years and years of being a "hardcore" gamer, I find myself buying games for and playing the Wii more than any my PS3, 360 or PC. There really is something incredibly fun and refreshing about it. Wii Sports, WarioWare, Zelda, Rayman, Trauma Center...there is a host of amazing games early in the systems launch that are selling VERY well. Of course, on this board, it is the "Wii Sports Demo Gimmick Machine." It seems the vast majority of the "playstation generation" that was raised suckling the promise of better graphics refuses to accept the possibility that the Wii is actually a great machine simply because it doesn't look like the other toys.

There are two theories on the console:

Theory one, that propounded by those on this board, is that every analyst and journalist on the planet is wrong, the sales are just due to "hype", and the machine's sales will eventually slow once stores can keep them on the shelf for more than five minutes. People will eventually tire of the "gimmick." Japan will eventually stop loving the machine in this theory and move to the PS3, although the rampant success of the quirky DS rather disproves this notion. In essence, most posters here seem to think consumers will eventually "come to their senses."

Or maybe, just maybe, the Wii is actually a serious contender this generation and the initial sales are not some fluke that those on this board believe them to be. The thing is, I can't think of a single person with a Wii who doesn't love it. I realize that is not an argument, but really, how often do you hear of people "tiring" of their Wii's? Is there anyone else on here that actually has a Wii? Sure, many of us feel the need for a "serious" system, but I can't imagine a situation where many households will not look at the three available choices and go with the Wii as a second system. My guess, and this is a random guess, is that most of those born in the 1985+ range just aren't confident enough to give something a chance because of its "kids stigma." Nintendo's kiddy image is something relatively new...the N.E.S. was the playstation of its day, and Nintendo appears to be making a lot of right decisions.

Note: I accept that no one will read this absurdly long post, everyone will disagree and I will lose all my bubbles. The thing is, I'm so sick of all this garbage console war crap...anyone who likes games, of which I suppose there are still one or two on this board, should spend some time with the Wii. It is a seriously great time.

[ChickeyCantor]

the most funny part is when people start saying : Wii isnt for hardcore gamers/real gamers.
last time i checked GAMERS play games.......
alot need a reality check and realize all 3 console run their games and thats all, it doesnt cure CANCER or gives you super powers....or something......yeah.........

consolewar is full of BS

[techie]

lol I don't know! I'm lost when it comes to Wii!

...i should probably get some incontinence underwear...

[ChickeyCantor]

WTF are you talking about......................... ..............

[JHFKDFNFGJKFHDKF]

360 price drop + halo 3 bundle = 25-27 million consoles sold by the end of 2007

[Anerythristic26]

I didn't read any of other comments. If this analyst is right that will be really good for gaming as a whole. I would really like to see it that close.