Nintendo Switch 2 To Sell 100M+ Units by 2029, Is The Most Important Console Launch Ever, Says DFC

DFC Intelligence has big expectations for the Nintendo Switch 2. They estimate over 100 million units sold by the end of 2029.

[_SilverHawk_]

dont think itll happen because of COQ. it costs as much as gaming consoles that are way better in a lot of ways and nintendo normally thrives on selling cheaper hardware than the competition. i believe that because the switch 2 and the games are so expensive and are far inferior to better versions available for the same price or cheaper on better gaming consoles that gamers would rather get a better value for their money and buy something better than the switch 2. the switch 2 can do a lot better if it isnt expensive and the games are cheaper.

[Muigi]

Yeah but I can’t play my PS5 Pro on a plane or the subway.

[Neonridr]

don't worry, they'll tell you to buy a $300 accessory on top of the console so you can "stream" it to play it. (subject to network capabilities of course)

[MrNinosan]

@Neonridr
The Playstation Portal is amazing, but if you don't want to spend the 300$, just use your phone or tablet that you probably own already

[jznrpg]

@MrNinosan it’s 199$ for Portal

[MrNinosan]

@jznrpg
Might be, I just answered to his bullshit comment.
As I live in Sweden, I paid way more for my Portal, around 350$ at release, but still use it daily at work and in my bed, so well invested 👍

[b00mFargl3]

However, the Switch 1.5's capabilities do not compare to those of the PS5 Pro; in fact, the Series S is more powerful.

The PlayStation does offer an accessory that provides a similar function, but many other handheld devices offer superior capabilities. Essentially, you are purchasing a device primarily for playing Mario games, with some niche features that Nintendo cleverly markets to its loyal customer base.

[Jingsing]

Also remember Switch 2 is now bigger than Switch. People don't like to carry as much stuff these days.

[Neonridr]

*costs as much currently.

We've already seen MS have to adjust the price of their consoles, and it's possible Sony could follow suit.

And your definition of "far inferior" is subjective to the end-user. Can I take my PS5 Pro version of the game with me on the go? No.

[princejb134]

Inferior according to who? You may not like Nintendo because they don’t have the most updated graphics but they do well when it comes to fun games. What’s the point of a game that looks beautiful but is boring to play. There’s a reason why they keep selling millions every generation.

[thesoftware730]

Silver, I disagree.

Nintendo sells consoles primarily off of their exclusive content that you can't get anywhere else ever. I will add that that content is regarded by many as some of the best in gaming, if not the best, along with a super loyal fanbase, nostalgia, and the most popular IPs ever created. The system will run exclusive 3rd party games as well as playable ports of current and future games for the next 4-5 years, the majority of casual gamers don't care about tech specs or FPS, and even some hardcore fans don't care that much, and will choose a very playable portable port for the versatility of playing on the T.V or on the go...

I think the price will have a small impact, but 100M in 4 years is totally doable. Where else can you play the next Zelda, Mario Kart, Metroid, and Pokemon games? It will sell.

[darthv72]

Pretty ambitious... it could be done so long as they lower the price of the games and the system to something more reasonable.

[jznrpg]

Least exciting Nintendo launch for me.

[MrNinosan]

First console I won't buy at release since the original NES.

[repsahj]

Not me. I am excited as when I first bought my Mario Odyssey bundle Switch 1.

[MrNinosan]

Because of Mario Kart?
Or what is it that excites you?

[repsahj]

Because of everything Switch 2, I am very impressed with what I am seeing so far. And because 3 of my friends who I play Helldivers 2 with will also get it. We will all be getting the Mario Kart World bundle.

[Elda]

For me...I beg to differ it's an important launch knowing it's not launching with any interesting exclusives except the $80 Mario Kart & I'm not into racers. Until I see some interesting Switch 2 exclusives that I think are a must play I can wait as long as possible before obtaining a Switch 2.

[Neonridr]

While I'm getting MK at launch, I'm actually most interested in Donkey Kong. I love the destructible environments.

[NotoriousWhiz]

I'm most interested in trying out cyberpunk with mouse controls. If they work really well, Switch 2 may be my console of choice for shooters.

[MrNinosan]

Couldn't you try that on PC for the last 5+ years?

[NotoriousWhiz]

^ I don't game at a desk and am not interested in using one of those lap desk things. My only "gaming computer" is a steam deck.

[neutralgamer1992]

I’ve seen a lot of people projecting that the Switch 2 will sell over 100 million units by 2029. While I understand the optimism—especially considering the original Switch’s success—I think those numbers might be overlooking the current state of the market and how much it’s shifted.

First off, we need to stop using early sellouts or pre-order hype as a reliable indicator of long-term success. Every major console that’s launched in the last 25 years has sold out during its pre-order window. Even consoles that were ultimately considered commercial disappointments—like the Wii U—sold out at launch. The PS3, which launched at a hefty $600 back in 2007, still had people lining up. That early rush is almost always driven by the core gaming audience, not the mass market. The real test comes after that honeymoon phase, when sales depend on casual gamers and broader adoption.

And that’s where things get trickier now.

The gaming landscape has changed dramatically. Mobile gaming has completely taken over in terms of both revenue and number of players. It’s bigger than console and PC gaming combined, and it's still growing. That makes sense when you think about it: everyone already has a phone, and many have tablets too. Pair that with a Bluetooth controller and you’ve got a portable, high-quality gaming experience with almost no extra cost.

Consoles and gaming PCs, on the other hand, require a substantial investment just to get started. When money is tighter for a lot of households and the average consumer is more price-conscious, it becomes harder to justify spending $400–600+ on a single-use gaming device—especially when they already own something that plays games well enough.

I’m not saying the Switch 2 won’t be successful. Nintendo has a strong brand and a loyal fanbase. But I do think people are underestimating how much harder it is today to move that kind of hardware volume. The market’s more competitive, more fragmented, and more mobile than ever before

[Neonridr]

I fully expect the Switch 2 to sell 100M units. But to say it'll do it within 4 years is a big ask.

[1nsomniac]

Hear it for the launch of every new console. Nothing new and means absolutely nothing. Just corporations and the finance sector playing their part in the next marketing campaign.

[andy85]

That'd mean it'd sell 33% more than the switch 1 in that time. The switch 1 was a revelation, a successor that doesnt really change much selling comfortably more? Seems like a pipedream tbh especially if the consoles might go up in price soon.

[repsahj]

My prediction is that almost 10M switch will be sold on launch day or week. It will surpass the 15M units sold in its first quarter.

[Stevonidas]

Nintendo has killed a lot of the goodwill they built up with the Switch. I'm not even sure I'm going to keep my console pre-order. I'm cancelling all of the games I pre-ordered because Game Key cards are fucking bullshit. Right now, I have to decide if it's worth keeping just to be able play my old Switch games in better quality and performance (for a nominal fee, of course).

[gold_drake]

why are we making predictions 4 years into the future ha

[badz149]

nope hopefully not. it will send the wrong message

[CrimsonWing69]

Your pricing and shenanigans have me waiting on a sale. Good luck.

[b00mFargl3]

Switch 1.5 isn't the most important launch. This feels more like a mid-generation upgrade.

[Lexreborn2]

In this economy? Idk, prolly going to sit that one out

[Destiny1080]

theirs going to be gta 6 fever next year

which is simply not available on the switch

[Rage77]

Uuuf, this will piss of a lot of people in the industry.
They don't want to hear this when their job for the last decade or 2 has been trying to sustain the status quo of the 2 other platform holders in the console space. Switch 2 hasn't even come out yet and the barrage of negative gaming "journos" push has them all in a frenzy. Not because of power or lack of the system, but because Nintendo managed to launch their system in a point in time where the other 2 have nothing to counter with. (not a level that matters anyways) and 3rd parties are already smelling the potential profits to be made on a platform that are wanting their offerings with perhaps lets costs/investment. The timing couldn't be better, considering what Xbox looks like nowadays and PS is struggling to convince people the Pro investment has been worth it this gen with lack of first party games. Will be interesting to see it play out. (and no fake negativity, mental gymnastics will change that)

[PRIMORDUS]

Just got an email from Nintendo about the Swtich 2: "On behalf of the My Nintendo Store team, thank you for registering your interest to purchase the Nintendo Switch™ 2 system from Nintendo.
We wanted to let you know that you’re still in the queue to purchase, and to share with you a handful of updates on what to expect."
I'm not really excited TBH, I might pass on it, if I get another email to buy it. The whole key-card shit put me off.

[westernbullwhip]

Amazing