Xbox Series X Will Chip into PS4's Market Share But PS5 Will Still Be the Best-Selling System - DFC

According to game research firm DFC Intelligence, the Xbox Series X will chip into PS4's market share (how much will depend on the offerings of the new Xbox Game Studios) but PS5 will still end up as the best-selling system.

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IRetrouk15d ago

That's an easy guess to make really ain't it? Ms are doing better and seem to be putting more effort in this upcoming gen and sony are doing what we expect from them, baring a mess up i dont see anything changing.

darthv7215d ago

Both are going to be great investments. Man I cant wait to play them.

IRetrouk15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

Yeah I'm with ya there man, I gave ms their lumps over the years for rrod(I had a horrible time with that) and game support, but they fixed their hardware problems with their newer systems and seem to be taking gaming seriously now with their investments in studios, as long as they stick to that I will be supporting them, as for sony, they have a fantastic history of supporting their home consoles and I know, day 1 or end of gen they will have games, might not always be the best or the most, but they are always solid and only get better from there. The tech in these new systems really does have me excited for next gen, not just the jump in power but the systems as a whole, I also cant wait😀

Kingthrash36015d ago

Hope so.....though I doubt the xbox series x will chip into sonys market share.....I mean there are less reasons to own one. All games will come to true support for 1-2 years...crossgen maditory for 1st party games....the price is still a factor as well. Here hoping MS brings the best games of the generation and not make it a BC box who's main theme is to wait till e3.

IRetrouk15d ago

All valid points dude, but I'm not a pc owner, I prefer my consoles for gaming so to play xbox games, I need to buy an xbox, they seem to be investing in games, as long as they do, I'm buying one.

_SilverHawk_15d ago

The ps5 will outsell the xbox series x by no less than 3:1. I understand that the xbox series x can do ok in the US and the UK but everywhere else it barely sells. Every generation the newer xbox sells less and less. Some people think hype without substance can sell the xbox. people around the world who's seen the xbox for over two decades have realized that itll be the same situation again with the xbox and it's a waste of time buying it. The brand name xbox is considered rubbish by majority of gamers around the world.

IRetrouk15d ago

I dont see the xbox outselling the playstation, but i also dont think that xbox cant or wont improve.

SyntheticForm15d ago


I see someone couldn't help himself...

RangerWalk26715d ago

That is correct, IRetrouk. I always buy them both. So this coming Generation will be equally as great. I anticipate it being much much better.

mkis00715d ago

Frankly for the time being instead of upgrading my pc again, im just going to get a Series X to be my pc and a ps5 to be my console...and whatever is next for jintendo because i have no self control.

JackBNimble15d ago

If sony becomes as arrogant as their fanboys then next gen will back fire on them just like it did with the ps3.

sampsonon15d ago

when MS decides to "invest" in proper high quality AAA games i will "invest" in their product. If not they know where they can shove their console. Games Pass is the reason they are lagging on creating "investing" in AAA games. One AAA games every 3 yrs won't cut it.

The x1x has been the most powerful console for a few yrs now. how has that turned out for them.
What a waste.

NewMonday15d ago

2 cents:

1/ Xbox will not start as badly as they ended last generation
2/ Xbox will not start as well as they did last generation

some forget Xbox1 sold well at the start of this ending generation despite the bad reception because of the big fan-base carried over from 360, the XB1 went downhill for years before starting the recovery in reception if not sales the last 2 years. Most of the expected XBSX buyers are older 360 fans, they will have to win over fans with games.

Sony are not slacking off though. this could be the only generation when all platform holders are bringing their A game (including Nintendo).

but the market will force a winner even if all systems are great because most gamers can't afford more than one console.

PETE198515d ago

Not many people will/do have a pc that is as capable as the Xbox Series X. If you compare the Series X and Microsoft's stance on gaming to the same time around the Xbox One it's night and day difference. They will take some share and everyone will benefit. Competition breeds innovation and improvement .

InflectionPoint15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

Your positivity for both companies has been noted. Downvotes for your impartialness, what a world.

Loktai15d ago

Investment... I dont think people know what this word means anymore. It think you just mean people will be satisfied with their purchases in the long term, I dont see how buying a toy computer is going to be an investment. A better investment would be to spend time doing something constructive.

I am playing devils advocate here of course, but just sayin investment seems like a bit of a weird term for this.

gamersday0815d ago (Edited 15d ago )

@IRetrouk, "might not always be the best or the most" - Don't know why you throw that in but didn't mention how M$ did not even have anything. Sony has the better if not THE BEST of everything. There is no contest.

GOW4 (27 awards)
Horizon Zero Dawn (14 awards)
Dreams (6 awards)
Bloodborne (4 awards)
Nioh 1 + 2
Uncharted 4
Killzone Shadow Fall
Gran Turismo Sport (still releasing new contents)
Days Gone
WipeOut Omega Collection
VR Games
The Last Of US Part 2 (still releasing for PS4)
Ghost of Tsushima (still releasing for PS4)
FFVII Remake (still releasing for PS4)
....+ Uncountable Indie games (Resogun, Nex Machina, Super Stardust Ultra, ....)

What does Xbone's games that's worth mentioning?
Halo (just let the franchise die already)
Forza (poor man's GT and GT copycat)
Sea of Thieves (cheap cartoon with skeletons F2P game)
CrackDown 2.5 (where's the "FULLY DESTRUCTIBLE ENVIRONMENT" and cloud computing?)

denawayne15d ago

I've said this for the past I don't know how many years. XBox doesn't need to beat PlayStation to be successful. As long as Microsoft turns a profit, it's a success. Xbox live alone generates billions of dollars.

IRetrouk15d ago



You get all that out your system?

Ok first, why are you listing games? What has any of those got to do with my comment? I'll tell you, nothing at all...
I'm actually saying that you can count on sony to release solid games from start to finish, but their launch games arnt always the best though, solid but not always amazing, thats the truth get over it.

On to ms, I mentioned why I personally gave ms a hard time, that was both rrod and lack of support, could you not read that part? Did the mist already descend? I also stated as long as they support their system with games I will buy their console nothing more, nothing less.

Ironically enough I am more of a playstation fan by the way, if you thought I was throwing shade at anyone you are very much mistaken, i speak my own truth and what's relevant to me as a gamer.

Feel better now?

hamburgerhill15d ago

I agree with Kingthrash360. For me this next generation will be about MS proving they are truly bringing games. All this talk of buying development studios is great, but wont mean anything until we see and play there games.

gamersday0814d ago

@ IRetrouk Re-read your comments....

"day 1 OR END OF GEN they will have games, might not always be the best or the most," vs "sony to release solid games from start to finish, but their LAUNCH games arnt always the best though": To me, these 2 sentences are unmistakably different.

"as long as they support their system with games": Stop spreading lies. Everyone in the industry knows m$ (xbox team) has the worst game support so far in the history of console gaming among Big N, Sony and themselves. They are never seriously supporting their system with games. So, I'm truly bewildered as to how you can even think of that. m$ has never shown support for their system and their users with games, They only care about their $$$ and beating Sony and they'll tell any lie to do that - kinect cannot be switched off just like that, stacked gpu, unlocked core, unlimited power of the cloud, cloud will make xbx1 x4 times more powerful, "play the game not resolution", etc.

Next gen has not arrived, we don't know anything. Yet, you undermined what Sony has achieved and praise what m$ has only made promises of and said you're going to buy their system because of that.

Oh, I listed the games to show that I'm not spreading lies and there're not just empty promises with nothing to show.

Feel great as always thanks for asking :)

bigc07200413d ago


you nerds are the ones keeping this make believe "console war" alive, and are taking away from gaming. Imagine there being NO exclusives, at all. People would still buy their preferred console, and we could all play together, and save money in that aspect. Not everyone has $1200+ to spend on consoles, plus $60 for every single game. Why not eliminate the fairytale, and the fanboys, and keep making a killing off cosmetic microtransactions? If GTA can make a billion in like 24 hrs, then I'm sure companies of all genres, could bank close to that, the same way, if they eliminated exclusives, and were actually able to take their time making sh*t. Nowadays, everything is so damn rushed...none of these exlusives have any replay value, so they're pretty much worthless.

+ Show (18) more repliesLast reply 13d ago
Cupid_Viper_315d ago (Edited 15d ago )

My expectations are that Sony is aiming to sell the PS5 for $100 less than the Series X. And this is backed up by how they carefully engineered the PS5 to achieve this.

-They went with a smaller chip with only 36 CUs vs the larger one with 52 CUs on the Series X.
-They also went with an 825GB SSD to save some cost there too (although that isn't the main reason)
-They designed the PS5 around a constant temperature model so they can have a fixed and lower-cost cooling solution.
-They've stated that their MAIN GOAL with the PS5 was to get PS4 players to switch over as quickly as possible.

-The 7-year old PS4 sold some 110 million units and is still officially selling for $299, only $100 less than the origanal price of $399. This means that Sony can initially sell at a loss but remain very close to that initial price for almost the whole generation.

Also, for 2018's fiscal year, PSN alone generated more revenue than the entirety of Nintendo as a whole. And also generated more revenue than MS's entire gaming sector. psn_alone_generated_more_reven ue_than_the_entirety_of_ninten d o_in_2018 But that's not all. During that same fiscal year, Playstation made more money than they made from the PS2 generation. Let that sink in.. I ONE YEAR, Playstation made more money than then ENTIRE PS2 GENERATION. Which the PS2 is also the best selling home console of ALL TIME.

All of this only means one thing for Sony. PRICE and MARKET SHARE are first and foremost for them. So from the get-go, they set out to make the best PS5 they can possibly make for $399. and If MS decides to also sell the Series X for $399, then Sony will just undercut since the PS5's parts are cheaper, to begin with.

mkis00715d ago

Honestly X is taking a huge loss at $499 already, no way it comes down to 399.

deepdishdj15d ago

"And this is backed up by how they carefully engineered the PS5 to achieve this"

You should have been a politician.

PyroMessiah8615d ago

Here's a guy talking about numbers and not one of the companies has announced any pricing.

The whole post is guesswork disguised as "I know what I'm talking about".

GamerRN15d ago

So the PlayStation 5 going with less CUs is going to hurt them. They claim only a 15% defecit, but if you do the research, higher clock speeds don't offer great results with this chip. A 10% boost in speeds only yields maybe a 3 percent increase in performance.

The SSD is a nice feature but a huge mistake. All that speed with little need for it. Pushing all that data means nothing if your GPU can't keep up with it. Also no drives will be available for the public to increase storage for a while.

Overall, if they don't come in cheaper, I think it will really hurt them.

anubusgold15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

@GamerRN That many cu difference can equal up to 40 fps more on xbox series x. Any one that uses amd hardware knows how much of a difference more cu cores makes on the gpu. Look up amd apu reviews or cpus with amd integrated graphics 2 or 4 cu cores less makes the difference at gaming on high or medium at 1080p vs 720P. Anyone that says that many cu core difference wont make a huge difference they are kidding them self. Amd cu performance scaling has been pretty consistent . Amd hardware has not been able to compete with Nvidia without getting the Cu core count up.

CertifiedGamer15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

You do realize PS5 will launch the Pro at a later date so power advantage for is only temporary and neither console can run 8K natively.

Sayai jin15d ago

Many in the industry already stated that it takes around $470 to make the PS5. I would assume the Xbox is a more pricey to make. Sony could d it'll dominate the market share as far as consoles sold. That it their strategy. MS strategy has moved beyond consoles sold. They could have the same amount of the console market share, the one that the PS4 has shredded them in, but if MS grabs an impressive amount of people to subscribe to Xcloud and such they will see it as a win. They are looking at the whole gaming field, console, PC, mobile, etc with Xcloud. You don't need to own an Xbox to play their games, but you have to subscribe to their service, outside of PC gamers. Although there is an argument to be made there ad well.

Yes, I agree that Sony took extreme measures to make sure they carefully engineered the PS5. So I agree. However, I don't see them selling it for less than $499 at launch. The price of the custom tech is the largest indicator. The same goes for MS.

Sayai jin15d ago

CertifiedGamer, no doubt Sony will release a Pro version later with beefy specs, but MS will as well. So the power difference could remain the same.

CBaoth15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

"and not one of the companies has announced any pricing."

Did it ever occur to you Pyro that's exactly why they haven't? Because these companies know what each other are up to and have for years. MS was going for the power. Sony was going for the price. This whole time Sony's been trying to mitigate the the power disparity between the two since MS announced the Series X. Focus on current gen, remain mum on next. That's why I believe they initially chose GDC as the venue. It wasn't geared for the average consumer but it would've been a good information springboard as we'd still get all the juicy tidbits. Now with Sony's announcement, it transitions to a waiting game on pricepoint. Oh sure we'll see final retail SKUs n features n new software. But Cupid is right Sony did engineer the PS5 to be cost effective. Look at the spec sheets. Just how much of a price disparity is what both companies are trying hard to figure out. If I had to hedge my bets and say best case - $429 PS5 and a $499 Ser. X. Worst case $499 and $599 respectively.

Minute Man 72115d ago

@ viper

But the pro is still $399. It should be $249 and base ps4 should be $149

L7CHAPEL14d ago (Edited 14d ago )

And that's a LOT of utterly ridiculous speculation...

Based on inflation alone trying to hit $400 seems very impractical, I'll be impressed if either one of them can do it.

but I think it's going to be five hundred bucks minimum, for at least the first year to two years

FinalFantasyFanatic14d ago

I agree that Sony is probably aiming to be cheaper than series X, they already learnt their lesson with the pricing of the PS3, so I'm not surprised if they're fine with having weaker hardware to hit the cheaper price point. Other than that, they're probably relying on their game library and the revenue they get from PSN.

anubusgold14d ago (Edited 14d ago )

Disagree all you want fanboys AMD hardware has been behind Nvidia for years and the only reason they have gotten close in the last 12 months is more CU cores in their graphics cards facts! 4 cu cores on the 5700xt vs 5700 is 10 to 20 fps difference in games the xbox has way more than that over Ps5.

Realms11d ago

@ GamerRN

So then why are developers saying the power difference is marginal, just for context the difference is smaller than the xbox one vs PS4. Some of you will eat crow once first party games start being shown, at the end of the day I trust Sony to deliver games something MS has yet to achieve in a consistent basis.

+ Show (12) more repliesLast reply 11d ago
NeoGamer23215d ago

The reality is that MS wants to make revenue from games but they don't see hardware as a big profit thing so it really doesn't matter too much how many they sell. The profit driver is service, subscriptions, and royalties from games sold.

A lot of people are making a big deal about who is going to sell more, but the strongest company going forward is the one that can get the most subscribers, sell the most services, and get the most royalites. Number of consoles sold can play a role in that, but if MS were to get just as many PC and mobile gamers on XB Live Gold, XB Game Pass and have them buying games thru the Microsoft Store they would be as well or better of then Sony.

By the end of this coming generation true exclusives will probably be hard to come by. The need to grow revenue streams will far outweigh the need to market consoles. Especially if streaming becomes a decent technology after 5G is up and running. Not only are cell providers getting into 5G, there is also OneWeb who is putting high speed internet onto satellites surrounding the globe. In two to three years the internet will be a completely different beast.

IRetrouk15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

Ms already do most of what you mentioned,
how many gens in a row now have we heard console sales were losing importance? That services etc will be the future? so far it ain't happened... infact consoles are selling more now then ever, the sales speak for themselves.
Have you tried any streaming services on 5g? I have, it ain't great, I wouldnt hold my Hope's on that to be fair.
Regardless of speeds, a streaming service will not replace traditional gaming, because its simply not good enough, I'm already on half a gig speeds in my house, i still get hickups playing xcloud and now.
You say ms can beat sonys sales etc with services and game pass on pc, havent they already done that this gen?? Has it made a difference?
I dont think consoles are going anywhere, anytime soon, and exclusives will still exist, either on consoles or their makers services, they need to differentiate themselves and offer stuff the others dont.

NeoGamer23215d ago

Just look at the revenues that these companies get and how much their revenues increased. Sony and MS revenues haven't shot up because they are selling way more consoles and way more games. Their revenue increases have been mostly attributable to services and subscriptions not consoles and games sold.

IRetrouk15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

I'm not saying they wont branch out or bring services our way, I'm also not saying the services wont bring in profit, but I am disagreeing with your notion about consoles being less important as I already pointed out, both game sales and console sales are higher than ever, that itself translates to more people using said services and subscriptions, I also dont agree that these services will take the place of consoles, same thing for streaming, they can be complimentary for sure.

L7CHAPEL14d ago

and that's really one of the big disparities, between the two console bases.
one accepts reality,
the other only wants what they want, and any change to the way that's delivered just isn't something they can accept.
and it's putting their favorite console and their company behind the 8-ball.

there's going to be some changes they're really going to hate this generation, whether they like it or not.
and it's merely based on practicality and survivability...

NeoGamer23214d ago

You are always trying to get as many console customers as possible because you theoretically will get more sales of services, subscriptions, and royalties. But if you get 50,000,000 console gamers and 100,000,000 PC gamers and 500,000,000 mobile/tablet gamers you probably won't care that instead of 50,000,000 consoles sold you could've had 100,000,00 if you just focused on consoles.

IRetrouk14d ago

Again I never said any of that wont come along, pc sales are fine by me, supporting mobiles, also fine by me, having a streaming service, also fine🤷‍♂️ I just disagree with your view on how important console sales are, along with your views on exclusives, again I dont think the services and streaming is bad, but they wont take over consoles importance in gaming.

I dont really know what you are talking about chapel, again I dont have problems with services and streaming, or games releasing on pc, I just dont agree it's going to take over consoles in importance.

+ Show (3) more repliesLast reply 14d ago
Xx_Pistol_xX15d ago

@IRetrouk So your not going to talk about Xbox missteps like no having exclusive content to the new Xbox platform for a 1 or more?

IRetrouk14d ago

Did I not say multiple times that game support was one of my main issues?
I'm honestly starting to question some peoples comprehension abilitys😳

MADGameR14d ago

Effort into what? More powerful hardware? Because that is all I see from MS is the same ol' same. And don't even talk about the new studios that MS has because as far as I know ALL of their games are coming to PC. So again, what effort is MS making?

IRetrouk14d ago

I dont game on pc, so ms, sony and any other company can release their games on pc if they want, it does not effect me in the slightest, I wanted ms to take game support more seriously, them seem to be doing just that, if they stick to it, I buy the console those games are on, simple.

12d ago
+ Show (4) more repliesLast reply 11d ago
Echo_15d ago

So long as the industry is healthy. Me not bothered about something like this, unless there's a reason to worry.
I just want Series X for a ninja like me, like me. PS5 down the line too when there's enough software I want. Drowning in nothing but blissful gaming.

CaptainHenry91615d ago

PS5 will be the best selling console next generation. It's obvious especially since it will probably be a little cheaper

ThinkThink15d ago

Agreed. Price will be the determining factor at this point.

RangerWalk26715d ago

I guess it might be for some. But for a 5-8 yr investment... I'm okay paying more this coming gen. I buy a Smartphone every year, and those run me about $1k. So it makes sense to me. Especially since they are my favorite form of entertainment.

GTgamer15d ago

It's very rare for people to buy unlocked phones out of gate they normally just add the cost to their bill in monthly payments since it's a smaller pill to swallow. I bought my xperia 1 unlocked and I don't plan on buying another phone for years to come 😂😂😂. I personally would never buy spend that much on a phone every year on the spot for those minor improvements or gimmicky features that you use for one day then never use again. Sorry for the rant 😂😂 but hey if you got it like that then do you.

sampsonon15d ago

@RangerWalk267 with the economy sinking i see most people "if" they decide to buy a luxury item, buying the cheaper item. In the case of SX and ps5 i say this, who in their right mind would buy a console that in the past 5 yrs the console maker has basically neglected their base with little to no investments in quality AAA titles. A company that has proven that making BC their priority. People first made excuses for them. Then they went into denial. Then they got angry and made videos bashing MS. now? we love you MS. We believe in you MS. Take our money.

I will buy the PS5 because Sony earned my trust.
Bring on the games Sony.

Kiwi6615d ago

Yet they could be the same price

cqett14d ago

G00gle(--->> pay 90$ per hour my last pay check was $9600 working 1o hours a week online. My younger brother friend has been averaging 12k for months now and he works about 12 hours a week. I cant believe how easy it was once I tried it out.

Copy This :--------->>

porkChop15d ago

No one doubts that the PS5 will sell more. Though the gap likely won't be nearly as large as it was this gen.

travestyj15d ago

It will probably be a bit smaller in the U.S but elsewhere it will stay the same of get bigger. MS has still shown no commitment for anything outside of the US.

xX-oldboy-Xx15d ago

And it'll have th best games if history is anything to go by.

That's usually the determining factor in a consoles success.

xsx is only going to chip into the existing ms consoles haha - won't even dent Sony or Nintendo.

That's a harsh reality of trying be everything to everyone.

PyroMessiah8615d ago

Do I believe you or a someones job to research this? 😂

Going to be an interesting gen and by all accounts MS is on a big comeback. They did they they wouldn't be outdone on power or price again..

TheKingKratos15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

""Going to be an interesting gen and by all accounts MS is on a big comeback. They did they they wouldn't be outdone on power or price again..""

Why would any one with brain cells listen to you ?
We are going by the fact that Sony every and each gen destroy Xbox in games and sales to the point they forced MS to drop sales the entire gen and will keep do so next gen

Sony doesn't even need to do any thing new other than keep doing what's it doing launch more amazing games that keep win awards and win graphics awards too ... power is nothing without the talent and skill and no developer out there put as much heart as Sony devs put in their games
It's going to be a very long gen for you when you face the reality

L7CHAPEL14d ago

Don't need to dent it.
their approach is completely different.
and as far as consoles sold:
Japan doesn't support Xbox because they're going to support their Japanese consoles.
National unity/identity are a big thing with them, (I've been there, and this is absolutely true)
a lot of these Sony exclusives aren't the ones that Sony studios make, its all of these jrpgs and Japanese centric games that only Sony is getting, and that's a huge part of it.

I_am_Batman15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

They might end up costing the same. Sony has a smaller GPU on the SoC, but they have a bunch of ASICs that'll take some of that space right back up. I still expect the series X to have the bigger chip overall, but the difference might not be that big. It's possible that Sony's PCIe 4 storage solution will put them above Microsofts BOM. It's hard to say because there isn't anything on the market to compare it to. Their cooling solution might also raise the cost a little further, but we haven't seen what they've come up with in that regard yet.

I think it'll largely depend on how Sony can communicate their unique advantages and change the narrative from TFLOP/s comparisons to overall console capabilities. If they can convince the public that they've made the right prioritizations they might be willing to go head to head with Xbox Series X and sell for the same MSRP.

Saigon15d ago

While I agree with your comment, I do not believe they will cost the same. Now that we have more information about both systems it clear why Sony is struggling with determining the cost. With the rumors being that the PS5 components cost around 450$ to manufacturing (don't know if the other cost such as the retail, boxing, taxes, etc. are included in that cost) we now see why it is such a struggle to figure out cost. What would you do, make a profit in the beginning (company benefit) or take a loss (consumer benefit)?

Does anyone know how much it cost the MS to make the XsX? I do not recall seeing anything but if I am not mistaken MS took a huge loss on the XOX? That may tell what MS will plan for the XsX cost.

I_am_Batman15d ago (Edited 15d ago )

@Saigon: Nobody except for Sony and MS know their bill of materials at the moment. Everything else is speculative. To estimate the cost difference of the SoC we need to know the die area of both chips. We're still missing details on storage to estimate what Sony pays for their high end solution compared to MS. It's fairly likely in my estimation, that the cost difference in storage will be higher than the cost difference of the SoC.

I don't think, loss versus profit is the right question to ask. I think the question should be: How much of a loss are they willing to take on each console and how many consoles do they need to manufacture to meet the demand of the first year.

Console manufacturers don't prioritize margins on hardware, because they make the lion share of their revenue on software and subscrition models. All those factors need to be seen as one business and balancing them to achieve the highest efficiency is the challenge both Sony and MS are facing. Not all those factors are in their own hands though, which makes it a trickier situation. Whatever the competitor does has a direct impact on the public perception of your product and can influence your value proposition.

rainslacker15d ago

"I think it'll largely depend on how Sony can communicate their unique advantages and change the narrative from TFLOP/s comparisons to overall console capabilities"

No. It'll largely depend on price, games, and the general brand power that each system has.

I_am_Batman15d ago

@rainslacker: I'm talking about what the retail price will depend on. I'd advise Sony against relying on the power of the brand as that could bite them in the back very quickly. Games would absolutely be the best way to convince the public of the capabilities of the console. If Sony's launch lineup is weak though, it'll be harder to convince some of the early adopters to shell out the same amount of money for a supposedly weaker console. In that case Sony might have to bite the bullet and undercut MS by $50/50€ even if their bom is comparable or even higher.

That's why launch window games will be very important. Sony has a real opportunity to show a game like Horizon 2 and shut the critics up, especially because Microsoft's first party will produce cross-gen games early on. Nobody is gonna care about TFLOP/s when you have the most impressive exclusive games, provided multiplatform games aren't too far behind and I doubt the difference will be big in that regard.