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Nintendo Switch Outsold PS4 by More Than 2X in Japan in 2018; Passes 7 Million Units

The Nintendo Switch sold over twice as many units as PS4 did in Japan in 2018, and just surpassed another milestone.

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Community12d ago
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Abriael12d ago
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Eonjay12d ago

I am actually surprised that the PS4 is still ahead. There were predictions that it could pass the PS4 by the end of 2018 but it will for sure in 2019. The math is simple. If the Switch sells 3 million in Japan this year for example, the PS4 will sell 1.5 million. Add the 700k and you get 2.2 million. So the amount of time it takes Switch to sell 2.2 million is the amount of tie it will take for them to pass PS4 in Japan. I will guess October of this year.

Abriael12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

People said I was crazy when I said that it wouldn't happen in 2018. October is a good bet. Likely when the new Pokémon comes out, also depending on whether there is any price cut or cheaper SKU on either side.

Geobros11d ago

PS4 sold better than I thought. I think though we are not very far from surpassing PS4. I would say 2-3 months max....

DJK1NG_Gaming12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

Uh that not how it works.

septemberindecember12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

@EonJay

The Switch only has to sell around 700k more to surpass PS4 currently. Even if the ratio remains 2:1 then Switch will surpass it after selling only 1.5M more (since then the PS4 will sell around 750k plus the 700k lead they have now).

I think they’ll pass that sooner than October.

Eonjay12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

You prediction assumes that no more PS4s will be purchased or that the ratio will take a nose dive somehow. When doing the calculation, you have to find the ratio of continued sales and then add that to the gap. So if Switch sell 50k one week and the PS4 sells 20k the same week, Switch only closes the gap by 30k. So at that rate it takes 23 weeks to pass it. The Switch wont get that rate every week. So, for example when Kingdom hearts 3 comes out, the rate may be reversed a few weeks extending the time it will take.

septemberindecember12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

@Eonjay

No it doesn’t, you’re misunderstanding. My prediction takes into account the 2:1 ratio as if it’s flat. That’s why I said it would surpass PS4 after selling 1.5M. That’s taking into account that PS4 will sell half that amount (750k) then adding the current 700k lead it has.

Also, you aren’t taking into account games like Fire Emblem, which may increase the ratio just like Kingdom Hearts may decrease the ratio.

Lime12312d ago

You do realise that starting next week Switch will be selling below 50k?

septemberindecember12d ago

@Lime123

Next week I think it'll still be at 80k or so because of New Super Mario Bros Deluxe. After that it will probably track around the 50k mark. Which, if you calculate it out, 1,500,000 units/50,000 units per week = 30 weeks. Which is around 7 months. So, if my prediction is accurate, the Switch should outsell the PS4 completely around July.

DJK1NG_Gaming12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

@septemberindecember
By your estimate. But you didnt include Yoshi and Fire Emblem.

notachance12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

it depends on the game release, which big nintendo game will release before october?
I'm pretty sure switch will surpass PS4 in japan this year, but it will only do so after the games such as pokemon come out.. and let's not forget the likes of KH3 and the rest which will drive PS4 sales higher on the early months.

+ Show (3) more repliesLast reply 12d ago
Christopher12d ago

I don't get the surprise. Japanese gamers either gravitate towards mobile or PC gaming typically. A Nintendo console that is portable? It's the Holy Grail of gaming desires there.

SpinalRemains13812d ago (Edited 12d ago )

In that time frame, why is your default position that PS4 sales will stall and wait for Switch to catch up?

Appy Polly Logies. I misread.

Neonridr11d ago

they are like 600k behind the PS4.

paintedgamer198411d ago (Edited 11d ago )

The ps4 sold ~ 24 mil in 12 months... going into its 6th year? Thats unheard of and all without being 199... The switch will be lucky to sell that until next gen arrives with streaming 4k 60 from a cell phone. Im wondering what nintendo will do if this dries up their hw sales... drop the damn price thats what

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Automatic7912d ago (Edited 12d ago )

I say by May 2019. Nintendo has lots of games releasing that will drive sales.

Abriael12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

Covering a 700,000 gap in non-holiday months is not as easy as you think in a market like Japan. Nintendo has no massive games from here to May, while PS4 has Kingdom Hearts III, Sekiro, Ace Combat 7, Dead or Alive 6 and more.

For the first half of the year, PS4's lineup of new releases in Japan is way more solid. Switch will keep selling more because it's newer, but won't do any leaps and bounds.

It'll catch up when the heavy Nintendo hitters like Pokemon and Animal Crossing drop.

DJK1NG_Gaming12d ago

You been living under a rock then.
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - This month
Yoshi's Crafted World - March 29

Plus following up with Fire Emblem Three Houses in Spring Q2 2019. That bigger than Ace Combat and Dead or Alvie in Japan. The series has grown to a major IP.

Dead or Alive 6 isn't gonna move system. Ace Combat 7 isnt gonna move system.
KHIII I give you that but Sekiro again will not move system.

Abriael12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

None of those is a system seller. Super Mario is a remaster, and Japanese don't care for remasters. The only one which sold well is Mario Kart, because it's Mario Kart and Mario Kart is God in Japan. Yoshi is a minor franchise in Japan.

With Fire Emblem without a release date by now, it isn't even a given that it'll come in Q2 at all.

The PS4's lineup in Japan for the beginning of the year is much, much stronger than the Switch's which has most of its strongest hitters in the second half of the year.

And lol at FromSoftware's next big game SET IN JAPAN with Ninja not moving systems IN JAPAN.

If you really think the Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan in three months, you're more of a dreamer that I thought. The Holidays are done. It probably won't sell 700,000 units in three months at all, let alone selling 700,000 units MORE than PS4.

princejb13412d ago

is funny how some of you defend sony as if sony pays your rent. Yes we know ps4 is in the lead but it also has been out longer. Only because ps4 is in the lead it does not mean you have to bad mouth switch

Abriael12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

Defend Sony?

Knowing that the lineup of games coming for PS4 in Japan in the first part of the year is much stronger than that for Switch (from the point of view of Japanese gamers) has nothing to do with defending Sony.

It has to do with living in Japan for three months a year and knowing what Japanese gamers like, because I, yanno, talk to them and interact with them.

Nintendo fanboys threw all sort of anger at me when I said that the Switch wouldn't have passed the PS4 this year, and guess what. It didn't happen.

It won't happen by March 31 (that's just delirious) or early this year, because sales outside the Holidays are pretty low for everyone in Japan (even more so at the beginning of the year, since most people who want a console buy it during the Holidays, so there's a natural lull), and the Switch's lineup lacks oomph until the latter part of the year. It's that simple.

Automatic7912d ago

@Abriael

"Nintendo has no massive Games from here to May"

The following games say hello
Super Mario U
Yoshi Wolly World
Tales of Vesperia Definitive Edition
Dragon Quest
Ominusha Warlords
Tales of Vesperia
Final Fantasy X
Final Fantasy X/2
Final Fantasy XII Zodiac
Dragon Dogma
Mortal Kombat 11
Saints Row the Third
Resident Evil 0
Resident Evil 1
Resident Evil 4

Abriael12d ago (Edited 12d ago )

@Automatic79 a bunch of ports of years old games that everyone already has and remasters/HD ports are your idea of massive games?

Just lol.

Neonridr11d ago

I always find it funny when people bring up these PS4 heavy hitters and then they go on to sell 300k units and are outsold by some Drum beat rhythm game on the Switch.

paintedgamer198411d ago

Exactly... fax. The ps4 3rd party support alone in 2019 beats out most of what nintendo is doing

+ Show (5) more repliesLast reply 11d ago
DJK1NG_Gaming12d ago

Nah they will do it before March 31.
Yoshi and Mario are releasing. That alone will drive sales.

Lime12312d ago

Well, you're the expert. I trust you.

notachance12d ago

you severely overestimate a port and underestimate a long time coming conclusion of beloved franchise then

look, I'm 120% sure switch will surpass PS4 in Japan this year but let's not kid ourselves that they will close the gap during KH3 release.
Pokemon launch will be the time when it finally surpass PS4 sales in Japan

DJK1NG_Gaming12d ago

@notachance
Except it will because NSMBU Deluxe is out before KHIII.

And if Amazon JP is evidence.
https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp...

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe is #1
and already best selling game of the year on Amazon JP with Kingdom Hearts III at number 3.

notachance11d ago

well duh, already released vs preorder number
it doesn't take a genius to figure out KH3 will win by a landslide against a mario port... and the gap will widen yet again when it does

notachance11d ago

woah, the blindness of Nintendo fanboy really surprises me

I lived in Japan for 3 years, Abriael on the comment above lives there for 3 months a year and somehow you think you're the right one, bravo man.

Lime1239d ago (Edited 9d ago )

Mario released 2 days ago and it's already behind KH3 which releases in 12 days.
And it's 50% cheaper.

https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp...

+ Show (4) more repliesLast reply 9d ago
isarai12d ago

Well yeah it's portable, Japan is all about that handheld life as long distance commuting is pretty much the norm there

Knushwood Butt12d ago

Well I'm curious who is doing all of this portable Switch gaming as I do a weekday commute by subway in Japan and never see them. Certainly very few adults doing that. 99% of adults commuting and gaming are using their phone.

notachance11d ago (Edited 11d ago )

I lived in Japan for 3 years.. they're usually not using it during commute but rather on lunch break and/or offline gathering

Tross11d ago

@isarai It’s not just about commuting. Have you seen the size of single-occupancy apartments in that country? It’s not at all surprising that many in Japan would also prefer to forego the home theatre setup we take for granted as the norm here in NA, to conserve what little space they have. They could decide to get a TV for the Switch too, but a system that is small, has a screen on it and only actually requires an AC adaptor to plug into the wall (and even then only when the batter needs charging) is, for Japanese people, far more ideal even for at home.

Razzer12d ago

Portable gaming + Japan = Win.

Lime12312d ago

Yep, Switch is a shadow of DS, 3DS, Wii and GBA sales in Japan.

septemberindecember12d ago

Actually, looking up official numbers the Wii was at 6.91M as of 9/31/08. Which is, what, 22 months after launch?

Meanwhile, the Switch is at 7.04 million units 21 months after launch. So it’s actually doing a bit better than the Wii.

danny81812d ago

For nintendo its still rather low in terms of hardware sold. The DS says hi. Im curious to know how Ninty is reacting internally without sales of secondary hardware of a sole portable.

TekoIie12d ago

@danny818

"It's still rather low in terms of hardware sold."

Compared to their most successful system that released in a market that does not exist today?

King_Noctis12d ago

Don’t you ever get tired kid.