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Michael Pachter Believes Nintendo Switch Will Fail To Sell 20 Million Units This Fiscal Year

Video game industry analyst Michael Pachter, a controversial figure with many in the Nintendo community, has made a bold statement about Nintendo Switch sales. Read more

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Shiken59d ago (Edited 59d ago )

So 20 mil by the end of FY confirmed?

Neonridr59d ago

basically. This guy is the king of getting it wrong.

Eonjay58d ago

Its gonna have to have a stellar Q2 and Q3 to make up for the less than stellar Q1 where it is down Fiscal YOY but it also has to out perform last year Q2 and Q3 because last year was 17 million I believe. So, while it is possible, I can understand why people may think it wont make it. The real question boils down to whether people are actively waiting on Pokemon and Smash to buy one. I for one am looking to get one this year. My intuition tells me that it will just miss it but at the same time we can't discount the Pokemon effect even if this isn't he Pokemon everyone wanted.

Shiken58d ago

Still, this guy is predicting 8 mil. Even if Nintendo is barely short of hitting the mark, Pachter will be wrong again regardless.

Eonjay58d ago

Yes anything under 14 million seems flat-out disingenuous.

indysurfn58d ago

Down Fiscal YOY does not work for launch year. Example PS4 sould 2.4 million on launch day and did not keep up YOY. It will work next year though.

SuperSonic9157d ago (Edited 57d ago )

He predicted the sale of Nintendo Labo though and he was spot on right on the money.
https://youtu.be/ElgtZAf7bR...
Nintendo is very predictable when it comes to their fanbase.

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ZeekQuattro58d ago

Here's a small list of Pachter's greatest hits.
1: The 7th gen was going to be the last one.
2: Xbox One was going to outsell the PS4.
3: Vita was going to outsell the 3DS. Eventually he flipped it around but not until after the Vita launched. lol
Take anything he says with a grain of salt unless its something obvious. He's an attention whore and most of what he says is to get people talking about him.

Imalwaysright58d ago

All you needed was common sense to know that none of those things would happen.

deafdani58d ago

To be fair, almost everyone thought the Vita was going to beat the 3DS to a bloody pulp before its release. Hype was through the roof for that machine, Sony had just announced it would be priced at $250 (the same price the 3DS was at that time), the 3DS's sales hadn't taken off by that point, and the Vita's predecessor, the PSP, had sold around 80 million units, which is the highest sales for a non-Nintendo handheld ever. The launch lineup looked promising, too, with Uncharted: Golden Abyss. Before launch, the Vita really seemed poised to be the handheld to finally take Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market away.

But then the Vita launched, Sony dropped first party support so fast it left everyone's heads spinning, we all came to face the ugly reality of the proprietary expensive memory cards, Nintendo dropped the price of 3DS from $250 to $170 like a bomb, and released Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and Zelda OOT, and... Vita's fate was pretty much sealed on year one, being relegated to an indie and niche JRPG machine status.

DarXyde58d ago

Who is "almost everyone"? I think I knew 2-3 people mad enough to believe that. There has never been much indication ever that Nintendo was losing its grip on the handheld market. If you said PSP, that would be more believable because Sony was making its entrance into portable gaming and the are many unknowns, but DS trounced on it. For me, this was a dead giveaway that power does not matter much at all to the portable crowd. Vita from a tech standpoint was impressive, and 3DS started out slow, but I really don't know many people who thought Vita was going to bring the curtain down on 3DS.

Dragonscale58d ago

He's an analyst not a psychic, he's bound to get it wrong sometimes. Is there a list of times he was correct as well? Not saying he is right but its a possibility considering the switch hasn't exactly had much so far this year except labo and OT.

indysurfn58d ago (Edited 58d ago )

Also. He is a analyst he is Obligated to get it wrong so his clients can make money. There is the direct side(his clients guy) and there is the public side(the public selling). Also switch that around if his clients want to sell or short.

Uken1258d ago

@ZeekQuattro

You forgot his biggest Hit! He said GTA 3 wouldn't sell. We all know how that worked out for him.

He's an idiot and shouldn't be on gaming sites.

ZeekQuattro57d ago

He is wrong so much its easy to forget things.

King_Noctis57d ago

3: Vita was going to outsell the 3DS.

🤦‍♂️

kreate56d ago

He never said vita was going to outsell anything. He actually said vita will be dead on arrival. Than the Sony fanboys went nuts on Michael pachter and made fun of him.

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Fist4achin58d ago

This guy again. If he were an investment advisor, the safe bet is to do the opposite of his advice.

Dragonscale58d ago

He must be doing something right as he's still working as an analyst. Tbh gaming isn't his vocation so its of no consequence to him regardless.

indysurfn58d ago

If he can get you to sell a good stock, so his client can buy it at a cheap price then he has done his job. Only way to do that is to convince you it is a bad investment.

indysurfn58d ago

I would agree with a more worded sentence. The best bet is to do the opposite of what he tells the public( which is NOT his client).

Dragonscale57d ago

@indy, he's an analyst not a conman fgs.

indysurfn56d ago

Dagonscale hate to sound negative to you but what I explained is literally what they do, I did not call him a con man. What investment analyst does is considered legal.

Babadook757d ago

He is an investment advisor.

The 10th Rider58d ago

This is misleading. I dislike Patcher about as much as anyone, but what he said is that the Switch is "on track" to sell 8 million this year. He wasn't saying that it will only sell 8 million or that he believes it will only sell 8 million. He was illustrating that the first quarter sales were only around 2 million, which was low. It's true that *if* they only sold 2 million every quarter it would sell 8 million this fiscal year. So the Switch *is* "on track" to hit 8 million for the fiscal year at the moment (obviously it will surpass that because Q1 will be the lowest for the fiscal year though).

jmc888858d ago (Edited 58d ago )

It makes sense. The core has bought their handhelds, and there are few games to drive the casuals to buy it. Obviously 3rd and 4th quarter will be better, but by how much?

The core for this device was bigger than past devices since Nintendo consolidated two different machines into one. Wii+2ds ~250 million units sold.

Now it seems that initial burst is slowing down. Nintendo wasted their teams on Wii U remakes, so their first Switch games are delayed. Some of these studios won't be able to put out a new Switch AA/AAA release until 2020-2021, perhaps later.

Also the price is still more expensive to own a Switch than a PS4, and in some situations/locations a PS4 Pro.

What will also be a drag is the paid online. I truly wonder how much the playerbase of the online enabled games like Splatoon, Mario Kart, Smash, Arms, etc will drop off once the paywall switch is hit. Could we see 30-50-70 percent drop in playerbase? Indeed it could.

The ds line was old and needed a new machine, the Switch is it, and it's a good one. But as a console, it just doesn't speak to most gamers. Especially not without 1st party content, for which there is a massive lack of. People can get all those indies on every other device, earlier, usually better quality, and cheaper.

Shiken58d ago (Edited 58d ago )

You say this literally as the Switch is out selling the PS4 in both US and japan. 20 mil is a stretch, but the Switch will continue to do better than you think it will. Pachter saying 8 mil though is so far off however, it is borderline delusional.

Also, you do realize that the WiiU port teams are extremely small and would not "delay" any of their games at all, right?

Dragonscale58d ago (Edited 58d ago )

@shiken, google is your friend. Npd for this year has PS4 beating switch from February to June with July tba. The last time switch won npd was January lol. Tbh switch may be winning Japan but definitely not the US or Europe. This will probably continue now till next year considering Switch only really has smash at xmas, it seems switch's momentum is slowing down. So to say switch is outselling PS4 anywhere except Japan is quite a stretch tbh.

Shiken57d ago (Edited 57d ago )

@dragonscale

I was speaking about this month. The fact that I stated that Switch had a slow start this year must have eluded you from other comments I have made, as that would imply that I am well aware of the PS4's OVERALL sales. That is not your fault however. I am speaking of post E3 sales, where the Switch has in fact been outselling the PS4 in the US. Google is your friend, as you would say.

I do have myself to blame in the misconception of my previous comment. I failed to specify that I was talking post E3 rather than for the entire year. Now you know.

shinoff218357d ago

@shiken your forgetting there's still the rest of the world and in that whole world the ps4 is still outselling everything

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knickstr58d ago

I love how the picture is of him doing a dr. Evil pose.

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