Video game industry analyst Michael Pachter, a controversial figure with many in the Nintendo community, has made a bold statement about Nintendo Switch sales. Read more
So 20 mil by the end of FY confirmed?
basically. This guy is the king of getting it wrong.
Its gonna have to have a stellar Q2 and Q3 to make up for the less than stellar Q1 where it is down Fiscal YOY but it also has to out perform last year Q2 and Q3 because last year was 17 million I believe. So, while it is possible, I can understand why people may think it wont make it. The real question boils down to whether people are actively waiting on Pokemon and Smash to buy one. I for one am looking to get one this year. My intuition tells me that it will just miss it but at the same time we can't discount the Pokemon effect even if this isn't he Pokemon everyone wanted.
Still, this guy is predicting 8 mil. Even if Nintendo is barely short of hitting the mark, Pachter will be wrong again regardless.
Yes anything under 14 million seems flat-out disingenuous.
Down Fiscal YOY does not work for launch year. Example PS4 sould 2.4 million on launch day and did not keep up YOY. It will work next year though.
He predicted the sale of Nintendo Labo though and he was spot on right on the money. https://youtu.be/ElgtZAf7bR... Nintendo is very predictable when it comes to their fanbase.
Here's a small list of Pachter's greatest hits. 1: The 7th gen was going to be the last one. 2: Xbox One was going to outsell the PS4. 3: Vita was going to outsell the 3DS. Eventually he flipped it around but not until after the Vita launched. lol Take anything he says with a grain of salt unless its something obvious. He's an attention whore and most of what he says is to get people talking about him.
All you needed was common sense to know that none of those things would happen.
To be fair, almost everyone thought the Vita was going to beat the 3DS to a bloody pulp before its release. Hype was through the roof for that machine, Sony had just announced it would be priced at $250 (the same price the 3DS was at that time), the 3DS's sales hadn't taken off by that point, and the Vita's predecessor, the PSP, had sold around 80 million units, which is the highest sales for a non-Nintendo handheld ever. The launch lineup looked promising, too, with Uncharted: Golden Abyss. Before launch, the Vita really seemed poised to be the handheld to finally take Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market away. But then the Vita launched, Sony dropped first party support so fast it left everyone's heads spinning, we all came to face the ugly reality of the proprietary expensive memory cards, Nintendo dropped the price of 3DS from $250 to $170 like a bomb, and released Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 and Zelda OOT, and... Vita's fate was pretty much sealed on year one, being relegated to an indie and niche JRPG machine status.
Who is "almost everyone"? I think I knew 2-3 people mad enough to believe that. There has never been much indication ever that Nintendo was losing its grip on the handheld market. If you said PSP, that would be more believable because Sony was making its entrance into portable gaming and the are many unknowns, but DS trounced on it. For me, this was a dead giveaway that power does not matter much at all to the portable crowd. Vita from a tech standpoint was impressive, and 3DS started out slow, but I really don't know many people who thought Vita was going to bring the curtain down on 3DS.
He's an analyst not a psychic, he's bound to get it wrong sometimes. Is there a list of times he was correct as well? Not saying he is right but its a possibility considering the switch hasn't exactly had much so far this year except labo and OT.
Also. He is a analyst he is Obligated to get it wrong so his clients can make money. There is the direct side(his clients guy) and there is the public side(the public selling). Also switch that around if his clients want to sell or short.
@ZeekQuattro You forgot his biggest Hit! He said GTA 3 wouldn't sell. We all know how that worked out for him. He's an idiot and shouldn't be on gaming sites.
He is wrong so much its easy to forget things.
3: Vita was going to outsell the 3DS. 🤦♂️
He never said vita was going to outsell anything. He actually said vita will be dead on arrival. Than the Sony fanboys went nuts on Michael pachter and made fun of him.
This guy again. If he were an investment advisor, the safe bet is to do the opposite of his advice.
He must be doing something right as he's still working as an analyst. Tbh gaming isn't his vocation so its of no consequence to him regardless.
If he can get you to sell a good stock, so his client can buy it at a cheap price then he has done his job. Only way to do that is to convince you it is a bad investment.
I would agree with a more worded sentence. The best bet is to do the opposite of what he tells the public( which is NOT his client).
@indy, he's an analyst not a conman fgs.
Dagonscale hate to sound negative to you but what I explained is literally what they do, I did not call him a con man. What investment analyst does is considered legal.
He is an investment advisor.
This is misleading. I dislike Patcher about as much as anyone, but what he said is that the Switch is "on track" to sell 8 million this year. He wasn't saying that it will only sell 8 million or that he believes it will only sell 8 million. He was illustrating that the first quarter sales were only around 2 million, which was low. It's true that *if* they only sold 2 million every quarter it would sell 8 million this fiscal year. So the Switch *is* "on track" to hit 8 million for the fiscal year at the moment (obviously it will surpass that because Q1 will be the lowest for the fiscal year though).
It makes sense. The core has bought their handhelds, and there are few games to drive the casuals to buy it. Obviously 3rd and 4th quarter will be better, but by how much? The core for this device was bigger than past devices since Nintendo consolidated two different machines into one. Wii+2ds ~250 million units sold. Now it seems that initial burst is slowing down. Nintendo wasted their teams on Wii U remakes, so their first Switch games are delayed. Some of these studios won't be able to put out a new Switch AA/AAA release until 2020-2021, perhaps later. Also the price is still more expensive to own a Switch than a PS4, and in some situations/locations a PS4 Pro. What will also be a drag is the paid online. I truly wonder how much the playerbase of the online enabled games like Splatoon, Mario Kart, Smash, Arms, etc will drop off once the paywall switch is hit. Could we see 30-50-70 percent drop in playerbase? Indeed it could. The ds line was old and needed a new machine, the Switch is it, and it's a good one. But as a console, it just doesn't speak to most gamers. Especially not without 1st party content, for which there is a massive lack of. People can get all those indies on every other device, earlier, usually better quality, and cheaper.
You say this literally as the Switch is out selling the PS4 in both US and japan. 20 mil is a stretch, but the Switch will continue to do better than you think it will. Pachter saying 8 mil though is so far off however, it is borderline delusional. Also, you do realize that the WiiU port teams are extremely small and would not "delay" any of their games at all, right?
@shiken, google is your friend. Npd for this year has PS4 beating switch from February to June with July tba. The last time switch won npd was January lol. Tbh switch may be winning Japan but definitely not the US or Europe. This will probably continue now till next year considering Switch only really has smash at xmas, it seems switch's momentum is slowing down. So to say switch is outselling PS4 anywhere except Japan is quite a stretch tbh.
@dragonscale I was speaking about this month. The fact that I stated that Switch had a slow start this year must have eluded you from other comments I have made, as that would imply that I am well aware of the PS4's OVERALL sales. That is not your fault however. I am speaking of post E3 sales, where the Switch has in fact been outselling the PS4 in the US. Google is your friend, as you would say. I do have myself to blame in the misconception of my previous comment. I failed to specify that I was talking post E3 rather than for the entire year. Now you know.
@shiken your forgetting there's still the rest of the world and in that whole world the ps4 is still outselling everything
I love how the picture is of him doing a dr. Evil pose.
Stopped reading at Michael Pachter...
Pachter is a moron. The Switch will do gangbuters this christmas, and Smash is gonna be a system seller. Right now is the right time to be optimistic.
Wow, staggering news that.
Is he an idiot as of July 31st the Switch sold 19.7 million consoles,by the end of the year with Smash & Pokemon it'll surpass that. Unless he's talking about selling 20 million copies this year alone on top of last years sales then that's another story,they may do it they may not.
With the right games this is very possible.
This year has been pretty lackluster so far with Nintendo releases so I could see this happening. It's really only the last few months that will push Switch sales. That being said, it does seem like alot of the Core Nintendo fans has already purchased a Switch so that could be another reason why sales are slowed a bit. The Switch will not sell like the Wii did and I hope Nintendo doesn't get cocky about it.
Why are there so many analysts that make money from being wrong. This guy is the Dave Meltzer (wrestling) of gaming.
That's too far on the other side of the sales spectrum to even be considered a rational guess.
Always wrong Pachter.
N4G is a community of gamers posting and discussing the latest game news. It’s part of NewsBoiler, a network of social news sites covering today’s pop culture.