Michael Pachter: If I had to bet, PS5 would come out in 2020

Michael Pachter thinks the PS5 release date won't come around until PS4 sales slows down and that could take up to 2020.

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MegamanXXX420d ago

Hopefully the next consoles will have a desktop cpu build in them

420d ago Replies(5)
Thefreeman012420d ago

Why CPU. Wouldn't you want a gpu

CyrusLemont420d ago

Graphics are important, but environmental simulation, physics and AI have stagnated due to their lack of focus this gen.

PS5 should and will likely still provide an upgraded GPU (10-12 t/flops), but the CPUs need to be a BIG leap forward, at least 6 times the current gens power. CPU based mechanics need to be the showcase next gen. Picture destructible buildings and landscapes in GTA VI haha

bluefox755420d ago

You need both, and contrary to what a lot of people think, CPU matters, it will bottleneck any system if it's not powerful enough. This is happening with current consoles even.

UltraNova420d ago

Lets see if 2020 is the target year then Sony is already in the late stages of design and in talks with AMD on potential cpu/gpu architectures (+custom work) that can be used for late mid-2019 production.

So we are looking at 'Navi' 7nm dies for the GPU with superfast HBM memory at around 12 gb (ram) and 7nm Ryzen 2.0 12-18 core CPU. Total 12-14trfl is not that unthinkable of a target for a 2020 console considering its just 3-4x the current PS4 Pro outpout (its next gen afterall).

SSD storage (at least 1gb) + a 2gb hybrid HDD.

A 4K blu ray drive is a no-brainer.

Add a top of the line cooling system and there you have it.

What do you guys think about these specs^^^?

I_am_Batman420d ago (Edited 420d ago )

@UltraNova: Interessting speculation. I'm pretty sure that the PS5 won't have it's GPU and CPU on seperate dice. I'm assuming it'll be an APU. Unified HBM sounds realistic if the manufacturing prices go down enough and/or HBM3 will be ready in time (which seems unlikely from what I know). Since native 4K gaming will probably be the target I'd estimate a minimum of 16GB with a total memory bandwidth of at least 1024GB/s.

7nm sounds about right so the CPU clock will go up. 3Ghz will certainly be possible. I highly doubt it'll have 12-18 cores though.

I assume you meant TB when talking about storage. If so a 1TB SSD sounds very unrealistic when aiming for a competative price. NAND-Flash is just too expensive.

ImGumbyDammit420d ago (Edited 420d ago )

@CyrusLemont Sorry, if you think a 4 year old CPU using standard GDDR5 memory is expensive at $499 the parts you named are going to astronomical. It is like you took all the cutting edge, something still not available and just added to the list without thinking. Although, I like your list of potential parts for the next console they are not going to be feasibly possible. You seem to think that items that in some cases that are currently more than a console itself (e.g. the CPU) they will drop so dramatically and be sized down to console pricing.

HBM alone is not going to drop to acceptable price levels to be in any machine. Although VEGA supports it, the memory is very specialized memory that (because of it's expense) is currently meant for high-end workstation type of graphics and not a console in less than a couple of years. Do you even know of anything that uses it? Prices drop when devices use something. Any memory used in the next console will be DDDR5/x or GDDR6. Consoles must use standards because standards mean the prices are able to be competitive. I would actually jump your 12GB and say 16GB is more likely but definitely some type of GDDR not HBM.

A 1TB SSD going in not going be $40 (that is how much they pay for 500 GB drive and not much more for 1TB in the PS4 and Xbox One. Remember we are shooting for a console below $499 ($399 would be best) SSD has not dramatically dropped in a while. A 1TB SSD today is around $250. It has a long way to go to reach that viable price for a $399 console. Actually, you could see a hybrid in a console. Since most people run the same game for a while it would be a good option. Using a hybrid (32+GB cache) would allow them to put in a 2TB or larger drive that is economically friendly for console pricing. A SSD would be nice it just won't be at acceptable pricing.

CPU, That is the really question. For a $399 console the combined GPU and CPU into APU must come in around $130. Your Ryzen 12-18 core is definitely not in the running. That CPU design starts at $799 just for the 12 core chip. You will continue to see 8 core using Ryzen. Any new console, if using AMD, will be some form of a Ryzen 7 based 8 core which is currently around $300 on the low end for just the CPU. There is no reason to add the additional cost of the higher end CPU it doesn't bring enough to the equation. It is pure fantasy. Once again AMD is not shrinking (lower the heat power requirements) for anything until next year and even when they start it will not be their 12-18 core Threadripper and while to go for the Ryzen 7. IT will be the Ryzen 3 and 5. The Threadripper that is their bread and butter high-desktop chip for the next few years. That would be like Intel shrinking Intel's i9 down. That is what the Threadripper is competing against the high end i7 and i9 Intel chips. The heat release and power requirement of those chips area extremely high. The power requirements at 180W on those AMD chips alone are twice that of the i7 and i9. They aren't getting that down console needs any time soon. And that is without trying to marry them into a APU, The heat is the main concern of any console. Sony and Microsoft will play any new console safe. Remember we are not putting these in a large desktop but a shoebox. I don't know what Ryzen 2.0 means.

The reason consoles are generally in the $299 to $499 price range is they use parts that aren't cutting edge. They may specialize the older parts for their particular use but, generally they are using tech that is not this years new thing. People look at the Xbox One X and think $499 is expensive for using a APU based on a 5 year old chip design and mid level version of GPU that will be 2 years old by the time it is released. Yet, even using those items makes the device probably close a loss or very little profit.

UltraNova420d ago

@ both guys above, thanks for shooting down my dreams hehe.

KwietStorm420d ago

No man no. The GPU is already covered. The CPU has been what's holding back this generation from the start.

conanlifts420d ago (Edited 420d ago )

The GPU's are out of synch with the CPU's. So they could push 8-10Tflop GPU, but they would need to at least double or triple the CPU power to keep up. Add an extra few GB of slightly faster ram and you probably have the ps5 specs.

A 10Tflop GPU and they would have enough strength for guaranteed 4k, plus many visual improvements. Then overhaul the CPU and you might even be able to push for 60fps.

+ Show (7) more repliesLast reply 420d ago
RosweeSon420d ago

Hopefully they play games

zivtheawesome420d ago

no need for it to be desktop. future gens of ryzen mobile will be more than a few levels ahead of the jaguar.


CPU and GPU. But I've got no problems waiting until 2020 PS4 is still a beast and it still pumping out some of the best games ever made

ILostMyMind420d ago

At best PS5 will use custom Ryzen 3 and it will cost $ 400, for sure.

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FallenAngel1984420d ago

And FFVII Remake still won't be fully released by then

WePlayDirty420d ago

Because it being episodic? Man I hope that’s not the case.

Also, Kingdom Hearts 3 will drive the sales of the PS4 through the roof.

meka2611420d ago

While it might; I don't think Kingdom Hearts 3 will drive sales up since it's coming to xbox as well. Now switch just needs to get it as well.

WePlayDirty420d ago

@Meka.. It’s releasing first on Playstation. (Timed exclusive). Not sure for how long tho.

ninsigma420d ago

Not necessarily. Assuming a ps5 would release towards the end of 2020 if that's when it releases then that's enough time for a part per year starting next year before the machine arrives. Doubt we'll be that lucky though but it's possible.

WePlayDirty420d ago

Sales not slowing down till 2020? Considering 2017 is the year where there have been the most quality games this generation, 2018-2020 will only get better. I can see PS4 hitting upwards to 80+ million. far surpassing PS3.

Rimeskeem420d ago

The PS4 is gonna hit triple digits easily. I just wanna see if it comes close to the PS2.

WePlayDirty420d ago

That would only be the case if PS continues to manufacture/ship the PS4 after the PS5 comes out.

FarEastOrient420d ago

The PS4 will continue to be sold after the launch of the PS5. Especially for South America, India, Southeast Asia; same reason why PS3 games continue to be released in 2017.

Nyxus420d ago

I agree, the PS4 is far from done, no need for the PS5 yet.

PlayStation_5420d ago

I agree with Dr. Evil on this one...