Believing Blu-ray will succeed doesn't make sense

CNET's Crave on Friday reported on Nielsen's latest VideoScan figures, showing that Blu-ray Disc's market share in the video disc market has slumped in the past week.

According to Nielsen, Blu-ray's market share dropped to just 8 percent of the overall market, giving DVDs a whopping 92 percent ownership.

Granted, those figures show only one week's performance, and Blu-ray may have a huge week soon and capture more of the market, but let's be honest with ourselves: do we really think that will happen?

[Tacki]

Believing you can predict the future doesn't make sense.

[Le-mo]

Reading his article doesn't make much sense either.

[fishd]

Blu-ray won the format war,HD-DVD is dead,get over it!

[JackBauerIsHIGH]

All that's missing from this article are the words "Flame On!"

[nbsmatambo]

when i read the title i was just like wow...

[Itrguy001]

lol well flame on *note remember too put on flame suit for flamers*

[ShinMaster]

You don't trust CNET with PS3/Blu-ray reports.
They haters man.

[harrisk954]

DVD invented around 1995 and it's first films were released in the US in early 1997 and yet didn't overtake VHS until mid-2003. That is nearly 6 years for it to overtake vhs even though we all know how much better and more convenient dvds were! I mean, MY FIRST DVD PLAYER WAS MY PS2!! And I'm usually an "early adopter" of technology. Early DVD players were very expensive and the DVDs were expensive. It took YEARS for Blockbuster (and other video rental stores) to begin carrying DVDs. And if I remember correctly, early on, it was like $50 to $75 to buy a DVD movie!! So, why is everyone counting out Blu-ray when it is being adopted by consumers at a rate of about 5 or 6 times the rate DVDs were adopted!!

It is amazing the poor journalism that exists on the web today!!

Any, by the way, anyone only has to look at the recent Spore DRM debacle (or the DRM issues on PSN that I recently read about) to realize why digital downloads will not catch on for years! (not to mention the usual arguments about most people not having the broadband necessary to make DD feasible).

Anyway, that is it for my rant... Thanks for listening.

[Final_Rpg]

Believing this article got approved doesn't make sense.

[facepalm]

And voting for G.W. Bush for a second term didn't make sense either, but people still made their choice...

And mine is with Blu-Ray...

[Nuclearwinter]

Yeah, and if only the democrats knew how to choose a nominee that could actually beat a republican. Much like HDDVD, they talked a big game and drew some support but when it came down to it they just didn't have what it took to win.

[anh_duong]

although he tries to be impartial, this guy doesn't like apple or sony.

read all his articles in the last 2 months if you don't believe me:

Why Microsoft should acquire Sony's gaming division (then says "Developer consolidation is bad for the video game industry")

Apple extends contract with AT&T, forgets about you

Is Apple the only company that can do no wrong?

Why Apple's event next week won't 'rock' at all

It's time for Sony to downsize

No matter what Apple says Tuesday, it'll disappoint

The Xbox 360 should win this console war

Why the Sega Dreamcast won the last console war

Why the Playstation 4 won't have Blu-ray

The Digital Home 33: Is Vista the best OS of all-time?

The Digital Home Podcast 34: Apple is getting out of hand

[sonarus]

who cares what this clown says...i'm going to buy unrated comedy collection:) 40 yr old virgin, saving sarah marshall and knocked up:D 54 bucks on amazon...thats less than 20 bucks a movie

Long live bluray:D

[BattleAxe]

Reading CNET doesn't make sense.

[thesummerofgeorge]

If we listened to these morons, the ps3, 360, bluray and pc gaming are all dying. So what do they think is gonna happen, people will settle on DVD's as the final format for the rest of time? Cause the only other option would be a brand new format... Which would do worse than Bluray cause it would be starting from scratch. It has ZERO competition... Once hdtv's are more common, and dvd's are slowly phased out, what do they think will happen? people will stop buying movies? It's not too difficult to understand why the sales are doing poorly right now, bluray's are expensive, and not many people have yet to buy a bd player or even an hdtv.... I would be way more surprised if bluray wasn't struggling during the peak of dvd's lifespan, people don't immediately buy a new hdtv and bluray player just cause it won the format war... It takes time.

[Gothdom]

if it's not american, they won't like it.

Look at the alternate source of the article. Thanks alexM. :)

[MNicholas]

and the losers who supported it are just as bitter.

[dukadork]

what a bunch of hilarious losers, lol!

[GIJeff]

"Why the Sega Dreamcast won the last console war" really? he actually wrote that or is that you being funny over the interwebs? Sega had failed the moment the Saturn was released. I love segas games, and wish they could come back, but saying the dreamcast one is plain stupid.

[pixelsword]

... Why would I believe them?

[pixelsword]

... just like the 33% was actually 68%; Microsoft is just like the Bush Administration.

[N4U]

that a glass window would shatter before it happened. I made that prediction right before I threw a molotov c0cktail, or three, at it, but I predicted its future nonetheless.

I guess the point here is that you shouldn't drink when you have a lighter and extra tighty whities on hand...no,no wait, the point is that you CAN predict the future quite accurately, but it is very limited (seconds/minutes/days but not years).

In the case of BD vs. DVD vs. DD, it's definitely too early to be confident what exactly will happen. Most likely, as more and more people adapt to HD entertainment, DVD will slowly become obsolete and the battle will be solely between Blu-ray and Digital Distribution.

My bet's on Blu-ray because I fear that machines will eventually try to take over the world via the internet. If DD starts killing people, I highly doubt that many will prefer to purchase their movies that way...maybe it's just me, though.

Besides, the name "Blu-ray" just sounds so B. a##. It sounds like something straight out of Star Wars. Like it's some kind of super powerful ray gun that can explode whole planets in mere milliseconds. I like exploding stuff so, naturally, I like Blu-ray.

DD - or as I like to call it, "Double-D" - reminds me of Dolly Parton. Don't get me wrong, I way like extreme cleavage. But there's just something about a wrinkly old woman's face on a gorgeous body that just turns me off (brown paper bag with a hole?).

So, in conclusion, Blu-ray wins by a landslide!

[anh_duong]

"Why the Sega Dreamcast won the last console war by Don Reisinger

"OK, so maybe the Dreamcast didn't really win the last console war. But who cares? The way I see it, the Dreamcast was the best console of them all. If you wanted to play great games, one of the best places to do so was on the Dreamcast. It had Shenmue, Samba de Amigo, 2K Sports, Skies of Arcadia, Jet Set Radio, and countless other titles like the Sonic and Crazy Taxi series that truly made an impression on the lives of many gamers. And we also can't forget that many of those series still live on in today's consoles."

"See, I don't really care that the Dreamcast was torn apart during the last console generation. To me, the Dreamcast was the real winner because it provided me with the highest level of satisfaction and the best all-around gameplay. It may not support an online gaming environment like we're used to today and it won't look any better on my HDTV, but it can do something that few consoles since its release have been able to do: provide me with a fun factor that eclipses all else because it's designed with the gamer in mind."

___________

this guy obviously laments the passing of the dreamcast and hd dvd. now you can understand why he hates sony. however, don't hate him - he needs help. the question is why cnet should employ a guy with such a deep and old grudge. his employment destroys their credibilty.

further comments from same author curtesy of nipgrip

http://www.n4g.com/NewsCom-...

[LightningPS3]

Simply put the facts down. Sales and rentals are still very slow.

And a few people are already using digital distribution.

distribution still has a long ways to go, but by the looks of things so does Blu ray.

So not good. Blu ray is failing.

I don't think Sony PS3 is counting on blu ray anymore. Any help is welcome but I doubt Blu ray will help sales. As soon as sales get out of hand, Sony will be forced to cut price again.

[Real Gambler]

"Simply put the facts down. Sales and rentals are still very slow."
Yes, it's still called the summer effect. Let's wait until Christmas and see if numbers pick up first. Fall's blockbusters are just starting to come up. Nothing was worth buying during the summer.

"And a few people are already using digital distribution."
Yes, they are called PIRATES. When business like Netflix will SELL move movies than Blurays, we will be able to say, yes, bluray is over. But for now, the market is shifting from DVD to Bluray, with a very insignifiant number of people BUYING HD digital movies.

"distribution still has a long ways to go, but by the looks of things so does Blu ray."
BluRay is available NOW and EVERYWHERE. Massive Digital Distribution is not available everywhere. It will take years before everybody can download 200 gig per month, quickly and at low cost. (That's only 4 movies in Bluray quality...). You have to BUY the movie and pay for internet. Sure you can pay little and take 4 hours to download a 50gig movie, or you can pay $100 a month, plus the movie charge, and make sure your hard drive never blow out (or maybe burn it on a Bluray???)

"So not good. Blu ray is failing."
If you don't enjoy a bluray movie on your PS3, try connecting your PS3 to an HDTV. It may help. How many movies have you watched so far?

"I don't think Sony PS3 is counting on blu ray anymore. Any help is welcome but I doubt Blu ray will help sales. As soon as sales get out of hand, Sony will be forced to cut price again."
Bluray in the PS3 is for GAMES. Sure enough, it's a bonus to be able to play movies on the PS3. Sure enough, it's still the best bluray player. But it's there so future games have enough room for quite a few years to come. And yes, eventually, the PS3 price will go down. You don't need a genius to claim that. Every consoles since PONG have came down in prices many time during their lifecycle. PS3 is not an exception.

[Final_Rpg]

Bluray is moving along just fine. Give it time, stop being a troll.

[FantasyStar]

I think for PS3, Blu-Ray needs to prove itself, beyond what the 360 can ever handle. Make FPS games that last 20 hours, levels as big as the Virgin Islands, content as big as my hot and spicy boner for Solid Snake and do something about those mandatory HDD installs and slow load times.

Then people will start singing another tune, the whole de-facto of BR in the first place was that Moar space = Moar for your buck.

[orakga]

I feel that you generally have a fair PoV, but on this one you seem to have overlooked a certain fact: people using DD doesn't mean that BD is dead.

I rent movies from Amazon Unbox (DD) EXTENSIVELY. But those are only for movies that I dont want to buy on BD (usually crappy drama movies that aren't worth more than $5 anyway; I wouldn't buy DVDs for these movies either).

ANY movie that I want to keep, I buy Blu Ray. Any movie I want to RENT, I DD.

Just wait until mid-October. Iron Man comes out in a week. All stats will flip.

And why does this idiot Don keep writing stupid articles like this?? CNET shoulda fired him three months ago.

[SaiyanFury]

I made up my mind about this article when I got to this paragraph:

"Sure, you can buy a Blu-ray movie at the store or get one from Netflix, and play it on your PS3 or standalone player, but you won't be able to play it on your notebook unless you have the latest and greatest laptop on the market. And you certainly won't be able to watch it in the car on a long ride. And unless your friends have a PS3 or a Blu-ray player, you won't be able to watch it with them, either.

The beauty of Blu-ray is the 1080p HD visuals which are meant to be enjoyed on a big screen HDTV. Play a Blu-ray in a car? On what, a 7 or 10 inch screen? What would be the point? Play a BD on a laptop screen? Again, what's the point? A standard DVD looks great on small screens. Trying to play a BD on a tiny screen, the point is completely moot.

[Makidian]

Anyone who takes anything that he writes to heart is silly, not only does he hate Sony(which is only a small portion of the BDA), he has a GIANT hard-on for Microsoft. All of his points are moot and useless. "OMG Blu-Ray sucks because it's new and expensive and DVD's have been cheap since they launched and portable's exist fot them and I'm a big fat idiot that nobody should listen to". Please, Resinger needs to get another job,maybe when Major Nelson retires he take his job, he'd be perfect for it.

[The gaming GOD]

is that ALL video sales have dropped lately (blu ray and DVD). And when you consider that Blu ray players are in the minority in terms of how many are currently owned, of course the market share was going to drop. But as I said, look at the DVD drops lately as well. And the thing is, even digital download only has .06 market share, so it's not like you can say "digital download is to blame". The bottom line is there is nothing worth buying right now.

When Dark Knight, Iron man, and Incredible Hulk all come out, you will see another Blu ray market share rise. The market will rise and fall based on that is available to the customer. Slowly as more and more people get blu ray the market share will rise steadily regardless of what comes out. And that's because it will slowly become commonplace.

Just look at DVD and how long it took for that to overtake VHS. Overall, people are moving from DVD to Blu ray faster than they moved from VHS to DVD

[TapiocaMilkTea]

It's just a matter of time before Bluray becomes the standard, what other choice is there for hidef? unless something even better comes along but it has to be something very different and very revolutionary, otherwise it won't overtake BD that easily if it took BD that long to get people's attention.
It does not make sense that people will stay with DVD forever.....

[stonedog]

there is no real reason to replace your DVD collection with Blu-ray the difference is not that substantial. I have not been purchasing Blu-ray movies b/c I do not feel that the format justifies the premium price. I will wait as the prices will drop over time. I agree that sales will spike with new movies coming to the DVD & Blu-ray format. But the reality is that DVD sales have been declining b/c people have generally re-purchased their collection. As such the studios have harvested the low hanging fruit and the only way to make money is to provide new content. The hope of the movie industry was that the market would buy everything all over again. While a minority will do this the majority will not especially when there is up-scaling DVD players reduce the diffence further.

So yes Blu-ray won the war but it has yet to win the peace and DVD is stronger competion for Blu-ray than VHS was for DVD. All will be revealed in the fullness of time.

[tuaamin13]

is that Bluray players can not only play DVDs, but they upscale them too. This makes it more appealing because I can buy a Bluray player and not have to replace my existing collection, as all these people like to claim. I can also buy the movies I'd like in the best quality on Bluray (Transformers, Iron Man, Batman), but get the stuff I'd like to watch anywhere (or not so great movies, but still worth watching once in a while) on DVD since 1) they're cheap, and 2) they do play anywhere.

It's nice having both formats.

It'd be great if Bluray prices decreased, so you don't have to wait for Amazon to run BOGO, but prices aren't that terrible. It'd also be pretty sweet if you got a DVD copy thrown in too. Make the disc set $35, but give me the $10 DVD in it too. That way I get the best of both worlds. The DVD would only have the movie, and for the best PQ and sound, along with all the extras, I'd watch the Blu version.

[orakga]

People claim that there is not a big enough difference between DVDs and BD. Nearly all wives (of my friends) that I've met have said the same thing early on.

Now they deny ever having said that.

It's only a matter of time before we look back at these posts and laugh at people who claim that "DVDs look almost as good as BD, especially when upscaled". (note: BDs will eventually become upscaled too, once higher-def TVs come out in 2015 and later)

[Grassroots]

I see more and more people holding blus in store over time. Yes slow but heck dvd wasn't that fast at gaining it in the first few years. We will see in time though who knows with the economy the way it is at the moment.

[aiphanes]

Remember we are in an world wide economic crisis...so people are not really going out there to get bluray players.....but once we get past this...then it will explode.

DVD is so old school...to get the full HD effect you have to go blu...there is no other choice. HD-DVD is dead...

[I am a gangsta]

so true. bluray will faill. just liek droids and their motheras.

[ShinMaster]

Yes because 360's disc-drive is totally awesome and better than Blu-ray, right?

/end sarcasm.

Last time I checked Blu-ray was favorite between devs.

P.S. learn to spell.

[Final_Rpg]

I never understood "droids". Bots at least makes some sense in a slight alteration of the word box. But where is "droid" derived from in anything to do with playstation? Delusional fanboys, conjure up intelligent puns or don't use any at all.

[Draperc]

That's all you can expect from some die hard 360 fans, they usually never have anything remotely intelligent to say.

[DiabloRising]

Because "droid" is a very unoriginal play off of the fact that both droids and bots (which came first) are both forms of robotic... stuffs.

Unoriginality. Ironic. ;-)

[-----------Nona-----]

Maria was killed by the locust queen,Marcus and Dom separate ways after gears 2,Doms children are still alive,and the locust queen is doctor helen cooper.

Enjoy your weekend xbots.

[I am a gangsta]

draperc is gay

and nona , ohw did you do that?

[GiantEnemyLobster]

Why they bothered wasting so much money investing in Bluray is beyond me. Oh well, the more money they waste the sooner they ultimately fail, helping Xbox 360 reign even more supreme.

[PimpHandStrong]

you forgot your english teacher

if you had one past age 8

[PopEmUp]

go back to " I am a nerd"

[pixelsword]

Credibility = zero

[Pain]

get bent and go play your DVD's on your Xbox.

[angryDRAGONgod]

The HD DVD is better then blugay......Oh it won the war ....wow and yet I can still enjoy awsome picture and colors and brightness that flow together.holy sh1t I can even still buy HD DVDs no fuking way..wierd. have fun supporting sh1t. don't bother replying this is over I win I am ignoreing you.

[angryDRAGONgod]

I don't use internet terminology I will always call you guys fuking idiots and supporters of sh1t..much more easier to understand huh.

[LightningPS3]

fallout 3 isn't trash on PS3. I hope it's not a crappy port full of bugs and frame rate issues.

And who knows how long the HD install will be.

But by all means, keep talking about how great Blu ray is for PS3.

EDIT

...and the only reason why Fallout 3 fits on DVD is because it's such a short game hehehe. Blu ray is so needed!

[poindat]

What on Earth does Fallout 3 and the issues it won't have have to do with overall Blu-ray sales? This was NOT a PS3 or Fallout article. GTFO.

[devilhunterx]

Ever played Oblivion on PS3?

[cmrbe]

just because you guys think that PS3 sucks then that means its the truth?.

[Szarky]

Hey LightningPS3. I think Justin Timberlake said it best...

... "cry me a river"

You actually sit and stare at the screen while games instal on the HD don't you? ... or you could go bang your girlfriend or go make a pop-tart in the toaster or grab a beer out of the fridge or go on your computer and download some music. Just trying to help you here man.

[zo6_lover27]

The ps3 version of fallout 3 doesn't have a mandatory install
http://www.joystiq.com/2008...

[theEnemy]

No.

Because you two are proven hypocrite.

Oh and you both wear the same FFXIII avatar too.

[DaTruth]

While waiting for it to install you could troll on N4G. You've had lots of practice.

[I am a gangsta]

decared is gaayyy

[cmrbe]

You are a fu*king Idiot and thats all folks.

[Shadow Man]

I want a ps3 because of Blu-ray and not the d!ck loving LBP.

[joeynox]

Bluray still hasnt won anything.DvD is still as strong as ever.Especially since dvds are like 5 bucks.Most people dont want to buy a new hd player and movie collection. I havent yet and I have a ps3.Personally I believe by the time dvd is really dead so will bluray. I give them both 7 years.

[GameDev]

Bluray has captured the most important demographic first, men 30-50 yrs of age. Those are the ones that buy more movies than anyone else. The only ones not buying it are single moms on a budget, since when did they decide any market at first? When bluray becomes cheap they will ALLL flock to it because PS3's will be cheap by then too.

[jerethdagryphon]

hrmm

i see more blurays going out these days dvd are at kiddy candy prices in tesco

anything not a new release is like 7£

blu may be more expensive
but transformers brd 16 dvd at release 14

yes its a year old but the releas costs are near the same

bue is good and will pick up sales more and more dvd will start to fade out in 3 years vhs 1986-98 ish dvd 96- 2012 bluray 2006- 2018
those are my numbers not exact but close 12 years per media for tv is about right laser disc failed because drives couldnt handle it
dvd is budget and at the same prices vhs was when it starte to fall off in sales

the current ecconomic trend isnt helping but i feel blue has a while

[Firstkn1ghT]

Upconverted dvd players are more than good enough for the casual movie watcher. A standard dvd on a upconverter like the Oppo player makes the movie near hi def. It's just as sharp as hi def. The only think that is lacking is the extra details. Only the hardcore videophiles will invest in bluray. Like I always said...bluray is just another laser disc.

[devilhunterx]

and they said the same about dvd. sheesh when xb3 comes out with a bluray, THEN will you shut up?

[DiabloRising]

LOL. I'll use the one the fanboys love to use against the PS3.

"If you think upconverted DVD is as good as true HD material on BluRay, you're just blind."

EDIT - If you think upscaled dvd looks as good, I pity you, sorry.

[wallace1000]

He wasn't saying that up-converted look as good because they don't, it isn't possible. For people that aren't videophiles or just don't really really care about PQ, an up-converted dvd will do them just fine. People still use VHS to record shows, that strikes me as crazy because the PQ is poor but some people just don't care. For videophiles like myself PQ is important but the majority of people don't know anything or care about PQ. Some people don't even calibrate their HDTVs. If you don't own a product like digital video essentials, then you shouldn't be posting about PQ in my opinion because if you don't calibrate then the picture is going to be bad.