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Pachter: ”Every Console Generation Going Forward Will Be Half as Big as the One Before It”

Every new console generation will become smaller and smaller according to gaming research analyst Michael Pachter.

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XiNatsuDragnel2103d ago

Oh boy should I use my fire magic knowing whats he is saying about that anti consumer.

Liqu1d2103d ago

"the public will be moving away from dedicated consoles toward cheaper and more powerful alternatives."

Such as?

"So Sony is going to lose market dominance when you can play Call of Duty without a console, and that's gonna happen in 2019 or 2020."

You don't need a console to play CoD, it's on PC as well. Or is he talking about streaming? If he is then he's wrong as usual. Game streaming will an option, but the vast majority of people will still prefer dedicated hardware like consoles and PC since game streaming is nowhere near good enough to replace it, that won't change by 2020.

"So in the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV."

We've been able to do this for years yet consoles still do well.

"And in the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV."

We already can but mobile gaming is inferior to console and PC gaming and it will remain that way in the next 10 years. Mobiles are not built for gaming primarily, they're only good for casual games that you play on the toilet.

"Every console generation going forward will be half as big as the one before it."

What does that even mean? Less sales, smaller hardware improvements? "Analysts" have been claiming consoles will die for years and it still hasn't happened.

uth112101d ago

Everything is going to kill consoles according to Pachter. In fact he said last gen would be the last console generation ever!

The truth is, consoles occupy a sweet spot that other devices can't compete with. Streaming has latency problems. Gamers who are always demanding 60fps for responsiveness aren't going to put up with unnecessary latency.

Mobile devices and small set-top boxes lack cooling options. That means their power is going to be limited compared to what a console can accomplish with cooling. Besides a micro console is still a console!

If PCs haven't replaced consoles by now, they never will. People choose consoles over PC for price and convenience.

As for shorter generations, it's not really practical given that it takes years to produce AAA games. They aren't like mobile games that are produced within months.

rainslacker2101d ago (Edited 2101d ago )

Eh, he said mobile would kill consoles as well. In fact, this was supposed to be the last console gen....until it became the fastest selling console gen ever. Talking across the board, not just for one console.

I think he missed the part though where Sony has been moving away from the idea of built in services....because there was no adoption. I don't see how anyone else is going to pick that up. Google is the most likely candidate, but as of right now, MS and Nintendo don't even have that infrastructure to start downloading their wares to other more ubiquitous devices.

To put it in perspective, every generation being half as big means that within two generations, the console market can't sustain itself because there won't be enough users to sell software. Half and half again comes up short really fast. Imagine 140 million for this gen....that means 70 for next gen, then 35 for the gen after that. What company is going to produce a console where that is all they can expect to sell.....and that's assuming they capture 100% of the market.

Patcher makes the dumbest predictions. This prediction in general can't even be supported with the current trending data, nor can it be correlated to data that exists for technology that already exists. All he does is says it will be by asserting what does exist will somehow become popular....when it's failed to do that up to this point, because there is no reason for the console makers to support these initiatives, because it's against their own self interest. It also presumes that the console makers won't keep giving people reasons to actually buy their products, or that there is some backing for these other technologies that actually makes them have more broad appeal.

In the case of TV's, yeah....we aren't going to see TV's install the latest gaming hardware to jack up their price, just so they can hopefully capture sales from the console market. There is no reason for them to, because that's not where these TV makers make their money.

ApocalypseShadow2103d ago

Sometimes I believe Pachter is more a market manipulator than an analyst.

If he says certain things in the gaming industry either through print, podcast or video show, if the market believes him and moves in that direction, his investors who he works for makes money. He's correct sometimes as anyone can be right if they put their mind to it. But the more he talks, the more it seems it's to effect the market.

PCs will definitely be around in some form as its main purpose is productivity. Mobile will be around as consumers are used to have a mini PC on the go that does more than just telecommunications. But it's main use is communication.

Consoles will still be around as there is a market for those who aren't interested in PC or mobile and just want to plug and play with a product that mainly specializes in gaming first. As long as GAMERS want a dedicated system that plays GAMES, consoles aren't going anywhere. It will just evolve just like PC and mobile did.

Best bet is that all three will become more connected. PCs do more than how they started out. Mobile does more than how it started. Consoles now do more than how they started. If anything, they'll just become more connected. Microsoft is connecting their hardware and software to each other. And Sony is doing streaming services to PC and allowing you to connect your console to your phone, PC or tablet for being a server, gaming second screen or software.

Consoles will still be around. Pachter is a market manipulator. Just does it legally

Dragonscale2101d ago (Edited 2101d ago )

Another 'consoles are dooomed' article. Lol. Current PS4 and Switch sales beg to differ. Typical pachter as usual.

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