Nintendo Is Dodging A Bullet By Releasing The NX Next Year

HPP: It's not too often that I agree with what Nintendo is doing these day, but deciding to release the NX next year is one the smartest things the one-time console juggernaut has done in years.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

This article makes good points.

On in particular stands out to me:

"the 2016 holiday season is shaping up to be huge for both Microsoft and Sony, with the PlayStation Neo and PlayStation VR almost certainly holding sway over many gamer’s wallets this winter, in addition to a flood of big-name releases such as Gears of War 4, Dishonored 2, and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare making their way to the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 at the end of the year. This already over-saturated Christmas season lineup could well have drowned out the launch of Nintendo’s upcoming console if the company had decided to rush the system out for the holidays without first securing an impressive stable of launch titles to make the NX stand out from the pack."

There's a lot of sense in that; even if the system HAD launched this holiday, there's absolutely no way that big names like CoD: Infinite Warfare would have had an NX version ready for launch that soon, because they likely haven't been working on an NX version for that game, amongst many others.

Seeing CoD: IW skip the NX, even though it was never planned for it, would just have been taken as a sign that it would be repeating the Wii U's first year, by third party lovers, and that would have buried the console fast, because no one who wants Nintendo to fail would have taken into consideration the fact that the game never had an NX version in development.

But by not releasing it this year, they avoid that otherwise-unavoidable assumption-by-association. You can't blame a system for not getting the latest multiplats, after all, when the system isn't even on the market yet.

Aiming for March of next year gives them 11 months to get all their ducks in a row, and to start making deals for big multiplats that WILL be releasing near or on that month in time, which avoids the accusation of them not getting third party multiplats.

And they do so without being drowned by all of the other big-name titles that are sure to dominate market share during the Christmas rush.

Plus, throughout history, there are examples of other systems releasing in March, so it's not like they're breaking some sort of industry-old Taboo by skipping the holiday season.

It's quite figurative, but "dodging a bullet" feels like a perfect choice of words.
Avoid the rush that would otherwise overwhelm any hype they could produce with a new system launch, and release it later, when the hype from everything else has cooled down and they've got a chance to have the spot-light all to themselves.

[dead_pixels]

I appreciate the in-depth response to the piece, Monkeyman. I really do hope that Nintendo's gamble to release the NX during what's traditionally a slow time for the industry really pays dividends for them. More importantly, I hope the company is able to court enough third party support to carry them throughout the year with a level of software that allows them to regain a competitive foothold in the console market.

[rjason12]

Hell, the system is almost guaranteed to sell over a million consoles in its first month, as every other Nintendo console has, including the Wii U (launched nov 2012 over 3 mil by end of December 2012) and 3DS (launched end of feb in January, and end of mar of 2011 and it had sold 3.61 mil at the end of that March.)

[_-EDMIX-_]

@Wonderful-"And they do so without being drowned by all of the other big-name titles that are sure to dominate market share during the Christmas rush"

Why fear the holiday though? PS4's and XONE's will still be being sold after sooooooo not really sure what they are going to do, they actually can't just avoid such competition forever.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

There's rumors that the PSVR and Neo are going to get some screen time at E3, as well as a slim version of the XBone.
That on top of the huge number of third party games that are sure to take up everyone's attention, is definitely going to be a lot of hype to go up against.
And after the way the Wii U was introduced, which made a lot of people lose faith in Nintendo's ability to step up, going straight up against that during the holiday season is akin to trying to scream over a thousand sub-woofers.

It's all about getting their own spotlight, one that they don't have to share, and one that isn't threatened by the strongest and highest point of the excitement waves that are going to come out of showings from stuff like Gears of War 4 and whatever else the others might have stowed away as a surprise.
Nintendo's obviously read the lack of popularity they're in right now, and made the decision that even if they did go head-on against the holiday cram-fest, it wouldn't do them any good.

It could be read as them being afraid of competition, but it can also be read as them making the smart move of showing their cards when the excitement for everything else has died down a bit, so that they can make more impact with nothing else dampening it.

[_-EDMIX-_]

"It's all about getting their own spotlight, one that they don't have to share" Doesn't really make any sense bud.

Seriously take a marketing class.

E3 is one of the biggest events of the year, there is a reason why the top publishers and companies go to E3. Its where MOST gamers will have their eyes focused on next month. If Nintendo wants to market the mass, they have to be were the mass are....E3 is one of those places.

That is like saying i want to market my product, but Wal Mart has TOO many vendors...

I mean.....Wal Mart also has the demographic and most people, don't you get skipping an event that millions upon millions would be view is a bad idea?

"Nintendo's obviously read the lack of popularity they're in right now" Oh back down and skip E3? I mean...that doesn't really make any sense. If they understand they are not as relevant or as popular, that makes it even more puzzling why they are skipping an event that could potentially change that.

I see zero reason for any of the major 3 to skip E3. You gain really nothing by not marketing to the masses. They either can't afford to go to E3, are fearful of their response in comparison to PS4, XONE, PSVR etc or something, for them to be scared to compete directly like this, seriously might mean they are no longer competing with Sony or MS and NX is foremost a handheld.

Its very much sounding like the reason why they are not seeking to spend money to market their next console at E3, could be because its not mainly a console in the first place.

That is like saying "I won't show my ad on the super bowl, because everyone does it"......you do know the point of marketing is because everyone will see it right? That doesn't really bode well for Nintendo's confidence going into a launch of their next platform. It makes it sound as if even more so that its not a console, but a hybrid.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

@ Ed
Quit gloating about marketing classes when you've got such a narrow mind-set that you can't see the entire picture before making a judgement on whether or not they need E3 just to get mass market/media attention for the NX.
You should know as well as everyone else does, by now, that even with trade shows like E3, the majority of those that pay attention to the announcements from them, don't directly attend the conventions.
Such being the case, Nintendo holding their own convention later on, and supplementing it with a digital showcase which WILL be paid attention to by the same crowd that was digitally watching all of the goings-on at E3 with rapt attention, doesn't lose them any focus from the eyes of the masses or from developers.

When it comes to a big announcement like a whole new system from one of the big 3, the entire gaming world stands up and takes notice, even if it's outside E3.
By not announcing it at this year's E3, they avoid having to compete with other similar announcements, and gain time to think of ways to refine their own presentation when it finally comes, in order to counter whatever's announced by the competition.
It also gives the hype waves from the competitions' announcements time to cool off, while allowing the official announcement of the NX itself to come out a lot closer to its actual release, which gives the hype waves from that announcement much less time to dissipate, which will result in better sales due to more excitement at the time of the system's launch.

This situation isn't in any way comparable to ads at a superbowl.
Know why?

Because in this case, the NX isn't a mere AD at the Superbowl.

IT >IS< THE SUPERBOWL!

It's the main event, which everyone came to see!

Every eye, whether they're physically present or watching digitally, is going to be ON that announcement.
They don't need to use E3 to gain attention for it; the moment the date for its reveal arrives, every digital media outlet, gaming website, and gamer with an ounce of genuine curiosity or intelligence, is going to be tuning in to that announcement.

It will get attention, and will be easily marketed to the masses, even without using E3, because Nintendo's kept everyone in the dark for so long about this thing that there isn't a single gamer who knows about the existence of the system that isn't dying to know what the hell it is.
That curiosity alone is going to make the official non-E3 announcement a major press event that can, and likely will, get them all the mass-market attention they need, because the eyes of the mass market will be squarely on Nintendo the moment that announcement event kicks off, regardless of when it happens.
The fact that you can't see that, is astounding.

In any other circumstance, where Nintendo doesn't have something this huge and mysterious to announce, you'd probably have a point.

But in the case of this system launch, after all the speculation that has been flying for so long and all the people that are craving details whether they love or hate Nintendo, you couldn't be more wrong about them NEEDING E3 just to get significant press coverage and mass-market attention.

Mark my words; gamers will FLOCK to that announcement event for the NX, no E3 needed.
It doesn't take an amateur armchair analyst, with a penchant for gloating about insignificant marketing classes, to see that the NX doesn't need E3 to get attention after everything that's been going on surrounding it.

[_-EDMIX-_]

Sorry buddy but you given again no real reason on why someone Should Skip one of the biggest events of the year in gaming.

You said it yourself a lot of attention and focus is going to be at E3. So your solution is to skip all the major Focus from millions of gamers?

Lol

Buddy even if you and I both agree that E3 is not the only event somebody could reveal a console it begs the question why on Earth would you still skip it? They could still reveal other elements of their platform and other areas but the fact that they're skipping E3 is beyond stupid and it doesn't make any sense but then again lots of things this company has done hasn't made any sense and it's evident to their current financial situation.

If Nintendo wants to hold their own convention what they're also saying is that they want the attention only from people who are there for Nintendo so they're not even trying to gain consumers that are not Nintendo fans it's a once again stupid that's like saying I'm only going to Market my product on my website yet not Market it at Walmart or Amazon where the people actually are it sounds pretty slow and it's starting to sound like you kind of just don't know what you're talking about....

If this company was known for making great decisions they would not have been coming off selling less consoles than before, last handhelds than before and their entire company has made less money than just PlayStation Network alone...

Their current situation is very much from making strange mistakes meaning that you actually for a fact could look up them losing sales and money because of dumb mistakes like this in this is sounding like another classic stupid Nintendo move.

But I see we're going to continue to ignore that PlayStation Network alone made more money than all of Nintendo combined lol

That doesn't sound like a company that's making great move. They're furthering their disconnect from where the majority of gamers are and I can assure you the vast majority of this website will be watching III like a hawk on the latest news that's going to be coming from gaming the exact Gamers that won't be seeing anything by Nintendo smh.

If I'm making the best soda ever created you better believe I'm going to be at the biggest convention of sodas as you've yet to once again explain why it would be bad for me not to Market to the biggest convention buddy I swear to you go to somebody and tell them to not do that and ask them if that's a bright idea.

[originaljohn]

Ed it's very simple, if Nintendo show NX at E3, Sony and Microsoft will copy and release competing products before NX launches in March. That's why its not being shown it's been done before and it will happen again. I don't think Nintendo are afraid, they're just carefully planning the launch. If they say its a powerful $300 console PS4 & Xbone will both get price cuts or if they show a new control method PS4 & Xbone will both get similar new peripherals and large marketing budgets to boot. Personally I think Sony are the one's who are getting hot under the collar, why is PS4K a thing? Are they not confident in the PS4? Why are Microsoft so quiet? What are Nintendo cooking up hardware wise? The last time Nintendo released systems from 3rd place in the home console market they dominated the industry in both the handheld space with the DS and the home console space with the Wii.

E3 is becoming more irrelevant each year, EA and Activision have both confirmed they're WONT have booth space on the show floor. More publishers are actually following Nintendo's footsteps and holding webcasts & fan events.

[_-EDMIX-_]

Might be the stupidest thing I've read in a while. If they show off anything on NX regardless of when if it's copied it's going to happen I have no clue why someone feels not showing it at E3 is going to give some stupid time frame to not be imitated it's going to happen and that's unavoidable I see no reason to bash their own marketing to make some feeble attempt at being first at something lol

Did you think that Sony was avoiding marketing VR and talking about it because Microsoft or even Nintendo would copy it? And if they do? That's something Sony can't do anything about it's stupid and doesn't make any sense and contradicts the entire point of marketing a damn product.

Would you say it's a great idea to just never show the NX? I mean with that stupid logic Sony or Microsoft could never copy something that never released does that sound like a bright idea to you?

Lol

Slowly reevaluate what you're actually trying to suggest this company does because I don't see any reason to sabotage your next product because you're scared somebody will imitate it faster than you doesn't that also say this company is not even competent enough to release a product if just talking about it, another company could make it better? Is that even give you great confidence about their ability to create anything?

Lol so I guess it was a mistake that Sony showed off PlayStation VR at all those trade shows? I mean now Microsoft and now Nintendo knows so Sony should just never ever released or Market their products?

Bravo bud lmfao, please explain that to any person with any marketing experience and see if that makes sense to them...

I'm not sure why you would think Sony or Microsoft would be nervous about Nintendo.... a company that sabotages its own damn product , is skipping one of the biggest marketing shows of the Year , regardless of how you think it is in relevance it's still one of the biggest of the year and makes no sense to skip other than sheer classic Nintendo stupidity. With Microsoft averaging more sales the Nintendo with Sony averaging more sales than Nintendo it's very clear that Nintendo is the one that's in trouble not Sony or Microsoft especially if you're Factor PlayStation Network alone is making more money than all of Nintendo I'm not sure why they would be worried lol.

Logic.

[derkasan]

I'm inclined to agree. The PS2 launched in March, and we saw how well that system did.

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

Same with the 3DS. But the 3DS problem at first was bad launch games and price.
Now if the NX have both of those covered. Considering Zelda, Pikmin 4 and Mario will definitely be launch games + they don't want to sell it a loss meaning the price would be good. Then it would be a great launch.

[Angeljuice]

So if it launched in April it would have been a flop?

[Pancit_Canton]

Lol. Don't compare the PS2 to the NX. The PS2 has a lot to offer compare to the NX. It's not only a gaming device back in the day, but a DVD player as well. The DVD format and the success of the PS1(also it's backward compatibility) help the PS2 during it's launched. Also, the PS2 didn't have a tough competition back in the days like Nintendo has right with PS4 and Xbone.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

You don't know any better than anyone else here about whether the NX has a lot to offer, so don't go saying it has nothing to offer compared to the PS2.

[Pancit_Canton]

I've been gaming for a long time and seen Nintendo's capabilities. They don't offer that much as far innovation.

[_-EDMIX-_]

PS2 released March in Japan...

PS2 released in the fall in NA and EU where they have their season holiday shopping rush.

Mind you, they released PS2 unopposed.

[Stealth20k]

They made the right move.

[LOL_WUT]

Missing the holidays and E3 is, by all means, not the right move. Nintendo should've thought this one through ;)

[Stealth20k]

Holidays are irrelevant for a launch in terms of future success. 3DS, DS, PS2 prove that.

E3 is irrelevant. There own event is a much better idea.

Keep trying.

[Ark_]

I am sure they thought about it - and had way better informations than we all together.
Might be strategic market decission, might be technical difficulties, might be information about their competition we do not have yet, that scared them away from an early release, might be a shortage in software ready for this fall/winter.

Imo they should take their time to make it a proper launch instead of rushing it.
I am curious about what they are cooking up for us and hope it pans out the way they want ...

[The_Sage]

The PS2 came out in October in the US. Many people bought it for Christmas.

[Lonnie18]

What kind of bullets? Money bullets? Nintendo is not dodging anything but their own scared shadow!

[ZeekQuattro]

I'm okay with March its the not revealing the NX at E3 that bothers me. Now I will see he said she said rumor articles longer than I originally anticipated. Well at least I will be saving money this Christmas. Anyway I agree that March is a smart move as its tax time in the US.

[Aenea]

Yep, awesome smart plan by Nintendo, just let people wait longer, let them spend holidays money on the competition instead, very smart!

This is purely a decision made out of necessity, if they could've launched it before the holidays they would have...

[Stealth20k]

If Nintendo can get the best launch ever by waiting until march, then people should just shut it

[Ark_]

If some people would dial it down a bit, we might find some common ground between "total fail" and "best launch ever". Both are extreme and since we've got no information what so ever, also pure speculation. Just sayin'.

[FallenAngel1984]

NX is still going to have to compete with the PS4 and XO whenever it releases. Those consoles would've had 3 years to grown while NX would be going through the usual launch growing pains

[Mega_Volnutt]

Nothing will save the NX, if Nintendo doesn't learn from their mistakes and actually market their damn consoles properly, not limiting with commercials only onDisney Channel or Boomerang nononono, I'm talking about on a Super Bowl level.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

Yep.
Marketing is one of Nintendo's bigger weak points.
Thankfully they've been on a good up-swing in that regard lately.
Splatoon is getting all-star levels of exposure, and those Star Fox commercials with the Nuppets [Nintendo Muppets] are freakin' hilarious, and are a perfect example that Nintendo has the creativity to do that for other games to help them sell better.

What they need to figure out, though, is how to market the NX itself properly.
Software is all well and good, but the system itself needs the right kind of advertisement, not just lots of it.