Will this Console Generation End Sooner than We Think?

Some developers seem to think that the end of the generation might be looming closer than we would expect.

[Eonjay]

Well it surely wont be 10 years.

[Aloy-Boyfriend]

I predict PS4 and Xbone to peak in 2 more years. BF4 at launch already pushed both at 80% if I'm not mistaken, and that was day 1.

[Gazondaily]

Pretty crazy that 2 years have already gone by.

In 3 more years we could see next-gen consoles already.

[GordonKnight]

Both consoles are underpowered for what they're supposed to do. With so many games having problems hitting the golden 1080p @ 60 fps is main reason this gen will be short. Once the NX is released, Microsoft and Sony will follow suit within the next two years.

[Volkama]

I reckon this gen and next gen will overlap in a way we haven't seen before, with games being cross-compatible with the PS4 and PS5 as standard.

So "when will this gen end?" will depend how you define the end. The new consoles will be out somewhere around the 4 or 5 year mark, but the old ones will still be fully supported and pushed as the cheaper option.

[ravinash]

@ GordonKnight.
A console is a mass produced product that has to be planned to a set spec by a set time with a cost effective structure.
So by the time it comes out, it will always be two years behind the latest PC tech.

Hopefully by the time the next consoles come out, the cost effective tech will be up to the level to not only handle 1080p @ 60 fps, but also handle what's required for VR.

[uptownsoul]

I'm sorry but the people who argue that the lack of power in these consoles will be a main (or major) reason why this console generation will be short...need to open their eyes.

I agree that the consoles have had HUGE trouble getting to 1080p/60fps. I also agree that they look woefully underpowered compared to the PC.

My point is, based on both Xbox & Playstation division revenues, the lack of power DOESN'T MATTER. Consumers are buying regardless of lack of power. These divisions are not in it to make the most powerful console they can, they're in it for the money (and both divisions in this generation are doing great)

[assdan]

I disagree. This is the xbox ones peak year. Next year is ps4s. We're going to start hearing about next gen in early 2018

[aemosier]

I agree that VR will more than likely extend this generation, if it has any impact at all. It is going to be hard enough to get the every day consumer to spend the extra money for the VR set, but to think they can then jump on a new console shortly after is crazy. This generation has at least 4 more years to it.

[TheCommentator]

@assdan

How could you think XB1 is peaking this year when Win 10/DX12 just launched and they haven't even used Cloudgine yet? Both consoles are just now breaking away from last gen support, and graphics engines are finally starting to take advantage of the hardware. We're in the equivalent of the Gears 1 phase of the 360.

[Volkama]

The "end of the generation" involves severing an audience of millions and millions of gamers, and starting again from 0. It is absolutely crippling for platform holders and publishers alike. That is the reason the previous gen lasted so long, and that is the reason both consoles use a nice common x86-64 architecture.

The transition to the next generation will not include that audience culling. Everything you are buying for your Xbox One or PS4 today will work on the next console, and almost everything you can buy for the next console will work on the PS4 and Xbox One (albeit at lower settings).

We'll likely see the PS6 at or before the moment Sony end support for the PS4.

[reallyNow]

@Volkama , I agree with you here, but I think it depends really on the popularity of VR. If sony's VR takes off, which it has the best possibility between all VR options out there, then we will need better hardware to keep pushing the boundaries. If, god forbid, VR flops, this generation will last a little bit longer than that.

[ArchangelMike]

Don't underestimate the impact that VR will have on this console generation.

[Gazondaily]

I reckon if VR kicks off, it will make devs thirsty for more power and therefore might want them hankering for the next-gen to start even earlier.

[Roccetarius]

@Septic, if VR kicks off, they will not only be thirsty for power, but they'll be forced to ask for more to make it a playable experience.

[AshleeEmerson]

This is exactly what I was thinking. I think Virtual Reality could be such a big leap forward for gaming and that every developer will want to jump on board. This will have hardware making a system dedicated ONLY to the VR and it's functionality.

This also pushes me to believe that there will be new TOP developers on the coming years.

I think with VR, imagination from developers will be finally be back. They'll focus more on the experience instead of replicating reality (because of limitations).

[TWB]

I seriously hope the PSVR will be compatible with the next machine since PSVR is pretty much launching in the middle of this generation. The VR wont kick off if the developers dont get enough out of these machines to deliver great VR experience and even then only if they make good games (note: not interactive virtual reality movies with motion detection, which is what Im fearing)

[NewAgeisHere]

If anything, VR will extend this generation - you think people have the money to buy new consoles so often, not to mention VR which will probably cost just as much....this generation will last at least until 2020.

[Rarefaction]

There is still plenty of room for improvement with gpu compute stuff but yeah, they won't last 10 years like before. And why should they, it damaged the industry.

[mabreu]

Obviously, we can look back on video game history. Judging by the market lifespan, it looks like Xbox and Playstation generations hit their peak around 6 years in. After that, a new generation model will begin.

This is just analyzing historical generations. I'm sure there are a lot more factors going on, but it's safe to say that the next generation will be in year 2018 or 2019.

Nintendo, on the other hand, released the Wii U in 2012. The majority of the gaming market was just not ready for it (or cared about it). This is why we are hearing about "NX." Nintendo is eager to end Wii U and start a new generation.

[Cha0tik]

People are thinking about simply the specs in the situation. I believe it will last just as long as any other only because developers are creating within one set of specs for each console. It's not like on PC where they have to develop for various CPU and GPU combinations along with testing with various different OS releases and compatible hardware. While the PS4 and Xbone will have a disadvantage in graphics and resolution... they are doing exactly what they should. The games come out beautiful and playable sometimes more so than it's PC counterpart because it's easier to develop for one set of specs rather than a ton. My Point is that there is a ton of room for growth and creativity and my reason for thinking this is because "Last of Us" achieved what many didn't think could be done on the specs the PS3 delivered and as usual Naughty Dog proved that there was untapped power even though that power was the limit to what they could do on the console. As long as the games remain 720p or higher I believe the developers will continue to stick it out as long as possible. It's not like a ton of console owners own 4k TV's just yet because the percentage is still low. Now they just need to come up with creative ways to keep the FPS and Res high while trying to enhance the game creatively and graphically.

[ValKilmer]

Bring on the PS5!

[Gazondaily]

And Xbox Two! No wait...Xbox Thre...no..wait what.

[lelo2play]

No, it will be XBoxX ... XBox X ... XBox 10.

X marks the spot.

[uth11]

Xbox U?

[livininsin]

iXbox? :)

[Aenea]

Xbox 6, so they can market it as 1 higher than the PS5 :)

[MasterCornholio]

Just call it The New Xbox.

;)

[BootHammer]

The NextBox

[AngelicIceDiamond]

Its possible but we're only 2 years in. Whats given this notion of this gen ending sooner?

[ApocalypseShadow]

The problem is the impatient gamers that can't seem to hold an attention span on something long enough before wanting something new.

Trade away their own games and systems so fast before they have been home long enough to collect a layer of dust.

The ones who aren't content with replay from fun factor. Days of old,if a game was fun like mike tysons punchout,contra,mega man,super metroid,streets of rage,gunstar heroes,etc,you played it again and again because it was FUN.

Not because there were a billion modes and PvP online play.not because it had 100 hours of gameplay and an open world with really nothing to do but do the next task.not like games that take you back to that old school fun.that Sega fun.that Nintendo fun. Something like rocket league does for people.

The ones who compare closed systems to open ended PCs where you could buy a new upgrade every month if you wanted.thinking pick up and play consoles need to allow you to do spreadsheets,excel and word.or if its not doing 4k and 480fps,its not a fun game.

The ones with values warped which is why they continue to buy micro transactions,dlc,season passes and madden like clockwork lemmings.

It takes longer to make games.developers need to make their investment back.more tech on the market too soon is just more for the trash bin and filling closets.5 years is too short when it takes 3 to 5 years to please these knuckleheads. And even then, they're still complaining.

[joeorc]

@Apocalypse Shadow + 1h ago
"The problem is the impatient gamers that can't seem to hold an attention span on something long enough before wanting something new"

Complete to 100% agreement on your observation, which mine mimics yours pretty much. I started playing electronic gameing way back in the late 70's for one we built the games in basic out of a magazine..lol

Today we have full 3D open scale games that in my opinion is far and away incredible for gamers today, in the past over 20+ years the game market has grown leaps & bounds.

We are now getting advanced 3D open scale games like GTA : San Andreas on a cell phone!

We as. Gamers have accessible games everywhere now, that just 20+ years ago would require such high cost hardware & yet, the hardware & software today vs 1995 what was out than for gamers its just fantastic to see how far the game design & software have grown in scale on what you are able to do with software & the game engines and tools the development has been able to do.

I have has a wonderful game experience over these years that the hiccup in software here & there really does not bother me , because A) no one or team is perfect, B) pretty much all hardware is less static today vs back than.

Seems to be more hobby oriented back than & became too much more of the "business" factor moving forward than really being about just laid back hobby fun.

Electronic gaming esp. In PC It's roots was floppy disc white label floppy's for games that were handed , or traded or if it was sold; it was out at computer convention's or sold to people just pretty much as a donation to support the gamer who created a game just for fun , to put out a game just for the fun of it, alingvthe way it bacame more of a "business" oriented area of entertainment instead of the mainly fun hobby it started out as.

[Bobafret]

+ for intelligent.

[Concertoine]

The reason last gen went on for so long was because of the big losses that Sony and MS took for their hardware. It was several years before either of them made money, and they had to stall for a couple of years to make enough to convince investors their respective brands were financially worthwhile.

Conversely the consoles this gen are much cheaper to manufacture (thus, more profitable) but also weaker, so i can see a return to a 6 or even 5 year cycle.

[Dario_DC]

If the new ones are Backwards compatible (pretty much sure it will), then I don't see why not bring new hardware in 2018.
I would buy a new one every 4/5 years if priced around 400€ and good specs.

[Kalebninja]

The lifespan should be about 7-8 years as the pattern suggests. That gives enough time for some of the big developers to make another 2 games.

[Roccetarius]

It should be 5 years, 6 max if any longer. 7 - 8 years is way too long, and it's just one of the reasons progress has been so slow.

It's no wonder developers have already noticed, that they simply didn't get enough to work with.

[Kalebninja]

With a 7-8 year span the jump in power to the next generation would be much greater.

[RedDevils]

Some people haven't even brought a next gen console yet lol and you want 5/6 year max?

[generic-user-name]

You're right I think. Only wishful thinking is making people think that this gen will be shorter than last gen but it has every chance of lasting as long if not longer.

[Fro_xoxo]

end sooner? 2 years in, although XO is already delivering, they've yet to peak...in terms of the best games each company could possibly put out. ..that last thing I wanna discuss is a new console..

I want another 7-8 cycle..

If we get one sooner, you clowns would be the same ones moaning that that isn't a big enough 'leap'.

[FallenAngel1984]

Gaming budgets are bigger now than they've ever been, so publishers will want this generation to last as long as it's profitable.

[Iltapalanyymi]

i give the current gen consoles 3-4 years, tops.

[DLConspiracy]

Well.. I mean wouldn't it matter more so how the home television industry is doing? The format for dvd is mainly 1080p right now. It's not like we are gonna leap to 4k as a whole anytime soon. There are tvs that go up to 240hz refresh rate too but that's not exactly something everyone has yet or even needs for standard home tv needs. Unless you game on PC.

So if things change in the television or monitor world suddenly then I don't see what the point would be. Unless they start making modular consoles aka pcs. Then either developers would have to make to the metal setting for each type of set up or the consumer would have to learn how to tweak their settings. Which at that point you may as well go pc. As consoles take that hassle away and run the game to the metal on each console.

In any case wayyyyyy too early for this.

[rjason12]

Well we already know Nintendo is bringing their new console out in 2017.

[GordonKnight]

We might even see it in 2016. I would love to see the NX luanch during E3 2016. Nintendo would go from having no press conference to launching a new console at E3.

[Mykky]

I'm betting on a holiday 2016 release or a early q2 release in 2017. Nintendo has earlier said that they prefer to show of stuff at that is coming out within the year.
Also it makes sense for a holiday 2016 release if the NX is going to have the new Zelda as a release title as it is coming out in 2016 on wii u.

[uth11]

I predict people will expect nextgen to be 4K, so this one will last as long as it takes for that to become affordable to do in a console

[GordonKnight]

just like they expected this gen to be 1080p @ 60fps

[traumadisaster]

Great point the ps360 was marked as hd, and we still don't have 1080p60 on this gen.

Btw I went 4kpc prior to this gen even being announced.

[Chaos-Dad]

2018-2020

[Takwin]

Backwards compatibility on day 1 for all 3 consoles will help make generations be only 5 years.

As a teacher, however, I see parents who are just now even considering getting the "new" console as they have asked me for advice. They might wait until next Christmas.

Also, the first console to 100% ditch physical media (or at least make it only be there for the initial download, and then it's a coaster), will be the biggest change in the industry. This is a matter of WHEN not IF.

[traumadisaster]

Why do parents ask a teacher about video games?

Do you recommend getting a $75 ps360 with $3 games?

I don't agree next gen will be download only.

[Takwin]

They ask me a lot of tech questions, including stuff about tablets, smartphones, and consoles. I have helped fellow teachers get computers that fit their needs. There are a lot of tech-UNsavvy people out there.

In forums and comment sections of video game websites, there are the type of people I never interact with in real life due to my job and social life.

[BABY-JEDI]

Considering PSVR is still to launch & is designed spec wise to work directly in tandem with PS4. 6-8 years is pretty much set on the calendar. Anything less will stop people investing in PSVR

[Pandamobile]

Or they'll just sell an updated PSVR for PS5.

[BABY-JEDI]

Then people will lose faith in Sony's commitment to giving customers value for money🤔

[Volkama]

PSVR works with PS4, but it will almost certainly work with PS5. The thing supports native 120fps output (without any frame reprojection), so it has potential beyond what the PS4 is going to drive. If it is only compatible with PS4 that'd be a massive faux pas by Sony.

Sony will probably even confirm future-compatibility around the time they launch it, to alleviate fears that their expensive peripheral might only be supported for a year or two.

[BABY-JEDI]

I agree with you but I do believe that Sony has said that this model is directly linked with the PS4 & this gen. I believe a new model will arrive when PS5 on market (assuming VR market success). As the competition would have moved on with the times.

[babis1974]

yes...tommorow lol

[MasterCornholio]

I'm not expecting it to last as long as the last one.

[Picnic]

If VR is going to be a concentration, that will extend the lifespans of the consoles.

It'd be great if the NX blew the other 2 consoles away with tech specs and Unreal Engine 4 style Mario though and afforded to pay for it, if they must, by charging for online.

[traumadisaster]

Everyone in the industry wants it to last a decade.

Do people think Sony, cash strapped, will put out a new system with expensive components and take a loss on it, when they can make a bigger profit selling the ps4 year after year.

Devs want to plan out there business plan for years, they require certainty to be be successful.

Only MS, rich, could take the monetary hit required to release a new system that would be 1080p60, 4k30fps, also not only backward compatible but improves the x1 games.

However I don't think they would do this...but i never could have imagined them giving win10 away either.

Sony is in the drivers seat and can and should milk their more powerful console decision for a decade. Because with the brand loyalty they built they could release ps5 after X2 and people will wait. Same idea as with the ps3 but this time they have learned price it right and be more powerful.

[Spotie]

lol, stop it.

[XeyedGamer]

Pre-ordered.

[Volkama]

What?

How can you pre-order it before anyone has published their "which next gen console should you buy?" article (that inevitably concludes with "they're both good choices!")?

[trywizardo]

it still have at least 5 years ...

[mamotte]

Well... I'll give here my opinion. To me, this gen has been weird to say the least. It has been a really, really slow gen, I mean, the Xbone and PS4 are two years old now, and I fail to see many exclusive games on each one. Sure, they have great games, like Infamous Second Son and Bloodborne, but I really dont see this gen as... meaty as the previous one. It's full of remakes of games that aren't even old. It's full of the "same games as ever".

There are great games to come, that's for sure. But as they're now, they're not worthy a purchase. When the great games -finally- comes, maybe we'll have the usual "PS4 slim model" or something.

[Chaosdreams]

We might see Sony/Microsoft push forward with new consoles in a few years, seeing as how Nintendo already is (but Nintendo follows its own timeline.)

Them pushing an idea however doesn't = going to work. Console owners like to buy something for the long haul. Do I think we will see another ten year span? No, but I think seven to eight years is highly plausible.

Gaming isn't cheap and I'm just finally getting my moneys worth. The thought of a new console in three or four years isn't even worth my consideration. I wouldn't buy it.

[GoodnessGreatness]

I hope it doesn't end quick. Another 5-6 years will be good though

[GrimDragon]

If it doesn't it should. This generation of gaming seems more like a 2.0 of the previous generation.

[gedden7]

I think the Xb1 and PS4 will done by 2018 the latest, the very latest. Nintendo is dropping the NX and I think MS and PS4 will be forced to do release their systems sooner.

This gen might be the worse in recent memory...

[MilkMan]

better not.

[Enyxodin]

New console at 2019 at the latest

[KilKarazy]

Millions of people buy a new $800+ phone every year. Why is it so hard to imagine a $500 console every three years or so

[traumadisaster]

You have never bought an $800 phone, rarely does anyone.

Contract-otorieeeeeeee.....!! !!!!!!

[RedDevils]

Yeah, unless there contract of console I'll be the first one sign up for it lol

[PersonMan]

Why should it? There's still plenty of power left in the current gen consoles.

[MannGamer]

This gen is going to be a long one again. Halo 5 just came out and Halo 6 will take another 3 years. So I am pretty sure MS will not launch a new Halo game right before they launch their new console.
As for the PS4 The last of Us 2 is still 3 years away and no date yet for Gran Turismo.
This is going to be a long gen. Cause both company are going for a powerfull console and both company are going for a not so expensive console, because an expensive console can cost them the generation.
So yes this is going to be a long generation.

[UlyssesFeral]

It really depends whether 4k takes off. If so, consoles are going to have to at least support a 2k standard along with more detailed models and better lighting to make a visually apparent bump from the last generation even when footage is shrunk back down to 1080p 30fps with compression artifacts.

Even at the rate components are getting cheaper, I think the next generation of consoles are going to come with a heftier price tag. This generation may need more time like PS3/360 did for the next to be affordable.

But again, this is just assuming that 4k takes off the way HD did. That's still up in the air.

[Yukonsbud]

I hope it ends soon. I want Phil Spencers vision of an Xbox. I'd buy a new one tomorrow.

[Bobafret]

They need to pack a lot more punch into next gen, so they cannot be afraid to have a 6-700 dollar price tag.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

No one wants a price tag that large.
If we were okay with that, we'd be investing in high-end gaming PC's across the board.

[RevXM]

Not everybody no, but a lot of people can.

Let say Ps5 is 500+. possibly as high as 650 depending on SKU's like 2TB-6TB etc.
They have to nail a lot of things, but given the hardware and features justifies the price and it launches with interesting solid launch games I imagine Im not the only one who would save up towards one.

A powerful console also will last longer so people can afford to wait a year or two before getting it for a lesser price and still get a handfull of years worth of new game releases afterwards. PS3 had a stiff pricetag, but the power, features and games made up for it. Not to mention PS3 was not followed up with a successor for like 7 ish years with the industry churning out solid AAA releases from first and third party developers for ps3.

The only things Im convinced Sony must not do with the PS5 is go without physical media, or opting for the always online route. And ofc while I want powerful hardware it doesnt need to be overly exotic like the cell was.

[StormLegend]

People are crazy! No one is gonna buy a new console after 3-4 years.
7-8 years is perfect!

let the developers get the best out of the console.

[WickedLester]

Peronally I'd like to see it go back to a 5 year cycle. I was really fatigued with last generation by the time it ended. To me 5 years is perfect.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

I think that Sony and Microsoft [possibly Nintendo as well] are going to make their current consoles last longer than 5 years.

The reason?

PROFIT.

They're making huge bucks off their consoles this gen [Nintendo more through software and accessories than hardware], so why would they cut that short when Sony and Microsoft fans are so satisfied with what they've got?

I would not be shocked if they drew it out to another near-decade cycle.
If they did, the leap in tech that their next consoles could make would be far larger once again.

[Jivesh]

If we get 6 years out of this gen I'd be happy.

[Jmanzare]

I'm sure it will but if and when it does it better be fully BC this time.. There is no excuse. I'm not going to spend the first 18 months of next generation playing remasters

[benji101]

Nintendo and Microsoft will be looking at 5 years. Sony cant afford that to happen.

[NeoGamer232]

First, there has to be enough technology change for a new generation to start. And that really isn't there yet.

Second, I don't think there has been very many games yet that have defined this generation. We need more games that we can say, "Gee, that is something new and fresh".

Third, With the multi-billion dollar investments required for each generation the console vendors will be waiting for an adequate pay-off.

Therefore, we are probably looking at about the same cycle as last generation before we see a new generation.

[WickedLester]

Consoles launched this generation with less power (relatively speaking) than the usual technological jump. It was necessary to get the launch prices down to an acceptable level. Gone are the days of launching cutting edge systems at 299.99. Usually new consoles launch with a power advantage over high end PC's for about a year or so and then PC technology catches up. However that wasn't the case this generation. New consoles launched already BEHIND PC's in terms of graphics/processing.

[NeoGamer232]

@WickedLester
That does not change the dynamics that I mentioned in my comment.

There still is not enough technological change to launch a new generation. I figure every game will have to be able to hit 4K and 60 FPS next generation.

There are games that push the current consoles, but there are still no games that really set these consoles apart yet. Those games are probably coming, but right now all the games have been incremental change over the previous gen with very little new added.

Also, the console vendors have spent multiple billions launching these consoles and they will strive to get a maximum return on that spend.

As for the state of PCs, that has nothing to do with a new console generation. But, I will agree that consoles won't be cutting edge going forward, but that is not why people choose consoles. Consoles are chosen by gamers that don't want the headaches associated with running PCs (Configuration issues, more complex usage, and poor form factors for the living room).

[RPGrinder]

Nintendo is the only one in a good position.