Could a 2016 NX launch work to Nintendo's advantage?

Giving up on Wii U too early could alienate core fans - but if handled correctly, a 2016 launch could help to reverse Nintendo's home console fortunes

[Nevers0ft]

2016/2017, it doesn't matter nearly as much as whether or not Nintendo are READY to launch - whenever that is. If the launch line-up is weak or they don't advertise properly the console is likely to suffer the same fate as the Wii U. I'm assuming nothing, Nintendo has some amazing talent but I think most of the corporate decisions are made using a Magic 8-Ball.

[Loadedklip]

That's because Nintendo the games publisher/developer is still amazing.

Nintendo the console maker ... is not.

They force censorship on third parties during the SNES
They ignored Capcom, Square and others request for CDs instead of expensive carts during the N64
They choose a smaller medium for the Gamecube as third party games started to require more and more memory
They choose to not go HD with the Wii
They choose to be underpowered and with very different coding with the Wii U.

They never do what the third parties want from them.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

And now that third parties aren't on a tighter leash, we've got them running around making broken games with micro transactions left and right.

You can say what you want about how bad some of Nintendo's policies were.
In more than a few cases, I will willingly agree with you.

But it can't be a coincidence that third parties have progressively made more and more dumb decisions with how they've presented their games, now that they don't have to follow stricter guidelines.
Decisions that cannot be fully blamed on Nintendo's hardware.

Like it or not, Nintendo's one of the reasons we got so many nearly-flawless gems from so many third parties back on the SNES.

People don't miss that era out of pure nostalgia, dude. We want that era to make a resurgence because it was a time when both Third Parties and Nintendo were on the same page, and we saw some magic happen time after time.

[freshslicepizza]

@wonderfulmonkeyman

"Like it or not, Nintendo's one of the reasons we got so many nearly-flawless gems from so many third parties back on the SNES."

not true. all one has to do is look at the glut of terrible games on the wii. nintendo's seal of approval was about controlling the amount of content back then, not quality.

[N4g_null]

It would be hilarious if the nx portable is a wiiu with arm design then it can play wiiu and new 3ds games. Then you get zelda u portable also. A possible second or replacement gamepad and a power boost for your ds line. Then just release eye bleeding spec sheets for the home console. You effectively extended the wiiu and n3ds along with getting those who wanted even more power something to be excited about.

[3-4-5]

It would help NX a lot to launch with as many games as possible.

If they are sending out dev units to 3rd parties now it's going to take them 1-2 years to make a game.

That doesn't mean Nintendo hasn't already started on games though....they have, but they want to have a strong launch lineup in terms of must have quality games.

* Launching with a 3D Mario game IS a system seller.

NX also needs one good RPG and Dragon Quest 11 could be that game.

[wonderfulmonkeyman]

Well, to determine if it's an advantage, we have to keep what's possible for a lineup in mind.

When the Wii U launched, its lineup was a MESS.
It didn't have any heavy-hitting first party games and third parties relied mostly on ports we all already had on other systems, in the mistaken belief that the Wii U audience had never tried them before.

No matter how I look at it, I can only think that this happened because both third parties AND Nintendo, didn't take the time needed to become familiar enough with the hardware to develop more new titles to attract more gamers.
Both sides relied mostly on quick, easy, smaller titles and ports, and that was a mistake compared to attractive new IP's.

The PS3 proved that difficult hardware isn't the huge barrier to third parties that people like to pretend it is, when they actually try hard enough for long enough and have ample time to figure things out, and the same goes for Nintendo and getting used to HD development.

My point is, time is needed.
Time for Nintendo to make heavy-hitting big name first parties.
Time for third parties to create new mature titles that will make third party fans feel like they need an NX alongside everything else.

If either side repeats what they did with their Wii U launch lineup, they will be collectively screwing themselves over with titles that won't sell systems.

To get as much time as they need to avoid that mistake, following the 5 year schedule Nintendo has traditionally followed by releasing in 2017 is their best bet.

This would also avoid the pitfall of pissing off Wii U owners, which they need to keep satisfied enough to trade up. 10m + would be an excellent starting number for the first six months of its life.

And for those worried about it releasing too close to the PS5 and Next-Box, think of how long Sony and Micros last gen ran.
Now think of how successful this one is compared to the same time in the life span of their former consoles.

What evidence to we have that both of them won't just keep letting the good times roll with another extended gen?
Especially in the PS4's case, why cut these high sales off early just to compete against Nintendo?
And in the case they did anyways, what evidence is there that the NX's tech wouldn't be on-par enough to fairly compete with whatever new systems comes out against it?

2017 isn't a bad proposition, with so many unknowns, reasons, and past examples to go by to justify it.

The time would be spent well and would only benefit the games, in the end, which would equal us, the consumers, getting a better launch lineup in the end compared to the Wii U.

[Hoffmann]

It does really not matter anymore if they release it in 2016,17 or 18 as long as they are not able to get a strong third party support.

[3-4-5]

uhh they already have Square Enix on board for NX games.

If they have them, they have other lesser companies as well, and they just send out dev kits a bit ago to 3rd party devs.

Not sure if most people understand that this means 3rd party devs = 3rd party support.

Nintendo doesn't send dev kits out to themselves, they send them to 3rd party and indie devs....duh

[wakeNbake]

They NEED third party devs on board if they want this to succeed. And for that they need power at least equivalent to XB1, an overhaul of their online infrastructure, and a no bs, competitive controller. The 90's are long gone Nintendo, you must conform to the industry's standards, or you wont last much longer in it.

[TheOneWhoIsTornApart]

Agreed. If the new NX console fails they need to just stop with making hardware and just strictly develop games and release them multiplatform.

[Eldyraen]

They would just drop consoles and go 100% handheld long before they just made games. They own the handheld market outside of Mobile and are starting to license IPs out to it as well.

Rumors are the NX may be a 2 part system so console could be stronger than the handheld so resolution/framerate could be the major difference between Playing the same game no matter where you are. Sort of like a Ps4+Vita bundle with full cross buy games but hopefully the handheld of today would stomp on the Vita like no tomorrow.

They could cut costs by allowing the console a disc reader and simply transfer data through USB to a cartridgeless handheld (less cost and allow smaller handheld).

[gedden7]

Def to Nintendo's advantage. When/if Nintendo drops the NX in 2016 and if its more powerful than and has a big buzz with success that may rush/push Sony and MS to release their next consoles with not much time to fully take advantage of this current gen and have great dev time. MS is getting killed and may give yet another price drop along with Sony and then rush out a new system...

If Nintendo makes a system way stronger than the PS4 with good not GREAT but good 3rd party support, then watch out. Nintendo would cooking and even more so @ $299 or $199 (even better).

[Hoffmann]

Yo Ken, why didnt I see you on a Nintendo console since Capcom vs. SNK 2?

[deadpoolio316]

It ain't gonna be more powerful than the PS4/X1 period FACT people need to get the notion that it could or will be right out of their head...

Its a 10000000% likelihood that they are using an advanced chipset because of the fact thats its a console/handheld all in one type deal, not because they intend for it to be some powerhouse.....

LMAO it for sure ain't gonna be no $299 or $199 system this isn't 1993 those things don't exist anymore....

[Neonridr]

why couldn't it be more powerful than a PS4? I am pretty sure PC's from 2012 are more powerful than the PS4/XB1. At this point, tech wise, it would probably cost more to make something weaker.

[Ck1x]

Actually for $350 in 2016 it could be twice the power of the PS4. Sony and Microsoft weren't pushing any boundaries with these consoles and if AMD is on target to update their full line up next year to Finfet. Nintendo could be right on time to introduce the NX with a moderately powerful system for a similar price to what the WiiU launched at.

[KilKarazy]

They lose either way. Consoles will probably move to 5-6 year cycles to keep up with technology. With that theory in mind, Nintendo releases a console that, we'll say is actually better than PS4. There's 26 million PS4s ahead of NX and 15 million XB1s, it won't matter. Then (again assuming 5-6 years) the two big boys release new systems a few years later and nintendo is way underpowered again. They really shot themselves in the foot with the WiiU.

[Ck1x]

Sony is already bucking your theory speaking about the possibility of a higher spec PS4, sounds like they want to extend this generation as long as possible. Many are underestimating what Nintendo's goals need to be with the NX, it doesn't need to convert all PS4 and XbOne owners over. It just needs to come onto the scene and announce that Nintendo can make competitive and attractive hardware that the public will buy. By the second generation of NX systems, the brand will already be established and a continuous ecosystem of games and a active fanbase will be established.

[FunkyGoron]

No, there is no way it comes out in 2016. Simply is not enough time for devs, even their internal ones.

I think it's odd how most people think that NX is a console as good if not better than the PS4/X1.

It seems much more likely the console is a handheld/home hybrid (say that 5x fast)where ALL of Nintendo's dev teams are now creating all their games for one platform.

The 3rd party support hasn't been there for over a decade, they don't want/need it. They will begin releasing 1-2 games (1st/2nd party) a month and that will sustain them. They split their user base between handheld and home users, with NX they'll combine them to one pool.

We'll have more Nintendo exclusive games more often on one platform, I think this is the best thing for them to do. Not try to woo the 3rd parties (though having them WANT to develop even 3rd party exclusive games would help)

[smashman98]

If it has a similar architecture and easy to use Api and the reports are true that the dev kits shipped out then yes it is enough time

[jmc8888]

Not really. There is plenty of time to make ports of already in development games and for the Nintendo games that currently have been expected to either a) have a NX and Wii U version or B) Been held back unannounced as it's been a while since they announced anything.

From this point they have another year to get ready.

Why do you think it's odd for it to be more powerful? Do you realize how weak the PS4/XB1 are compared to what's out there?

Do you realize how far ahead PC is right now? Do you realize that a DOUBLE node jump is right ahead? Basically the silicon process is skipping a generation, so it'll be TWO generations ahead of what's in the PS4/XB1. There are GPU's with >8 TFlops right now.

By the time the NX comes out, you will have PC's with 50 TFlops in them. Literally 27x more powerful then a PS4.

But yes, those are expensive as hell... what about the mainstream?

Well remember in 2012, you could get a 2.4 TFlop part for $399 at launch in the GTX 670.

In 2014 you could get a ~4 TFlop part for $329-369 in GTX 970.

In 2016 after the double node jump, it'll be possible to have greater then a GTX970 power but lower then a GTX950 price.

That's what Nintendo can do, and pair it with a much better CPU.

The CPU in the XB1 and PS4 are weaker then an i7 920 which came out in 2008 for $229.

So what you have in the PS4/XB1 is literally the power of less then a 2008 CPU and a 2010 GPU.

Meanwhile Nintendo could be building the NX with 2016 GPU and who knows what the CPU will be, but it won't be hard to beat a 2008 medium end power level CPU.

The NX, depending on price $299-499 could be anywhere from a 4+ TFlop part or even up to 10 TFlops. It all depends on how much they want to charge for the console.

This really isn't hard to see. The PS4 and XB1 were in no way cutting edge. Again you could of built a PC in 2008, upgraded the GPU in 2012, and have a more powerful PC then either console.

Nintendo can step in and cover that gap easily. If they want to.

[jmc8888]

I don't see how anyone can think it would be hard for Nintendo to top PS4/XB1, in 2016, a PS4 equivalent GPU will cost about $70 and an XB1 equivalent GPU will cost about $40. That's retail price, not non-retail and bought by the millions discounted price.

This is absolutely the perfect time to make a new console. Not only did Sony and Microsoft leave a bunch of power on the table when they made the PS4/XB1, but three years later (2016) that new double jump node means you are looking at about an 80 percent increase in power beyond what 2014-2015 PC GPU parts can do JUST from the smaller process.

A GTX 970 equivalent, just from the process node shrinkage will get you into 7+ TFlop range. Add in some other improvements, and perhaps even a larger die, and you could easily have a GTX 1070 pushing 8-10 TFlops. Not the GTX 1080, not the 1080ti, not a new Titan. Those will probably be in 17 TFlops range. Which means PC's will literally have the ability to 3x or 4x that with SLI, meaning 51-68 TFlops roughly will be possible in 2016... or perhaps early 2017 as the Titans usually come out a few months later.

So if Nintendo wants to go with the equivalent of a 1060 or 1050, it will EASILY top a 970, and be MUCH cheaper then a 970, more like a good bit less then a 950 price if bought in bulk and not paying retail price, and yet be about 2.5-3.5 times the GPU that's in the PS4 and upwards of 5x the GPU in the XB1.

Plus again, the CPU, will be stronger.

All for about $399 NX retail price, unless they get crazy with a gamepad or something.

The 3rd parties will support this, because it's powerful, and they will probably be able to get the games running on the NX just as easily as the PS4, maybe even more so, because it will have more power.

Now of course Nintendo could go ultra cheap and match the PS4, but it would be a wasted opportunity. If they did simply try to match, and don't get crazy with any sort of gamepad, they could easily hit a $249 retail price at launch, if they wanted to.

This is what happens when competitors leave power on the table and subsequently technology advances by quite a bit.

It's there for Nintendo's taking, if they want it. I think they do.

[BenRage3]

Wow, I never considered the time table the way you lay it out. But it is totally possible. I am starting to get excited, although I will keep that in check. Nintendo has not been making the best choices as of late. Nonetheless I like the way you think.

[Neonridr]

3rd party launch support doesn't have to be unique.. it could be all the games that are releasing around the same time for XB1/PS4 that are ported over to the NX. Even that would be considered a success at this point for Nintendo.

[gedden7]

"It seems much more likely the console is a handheld/home hybrid (say that 5x fast)where ALL of Nintendo's dev teams are now creating all their games for one platform."

Same games but different platforms.
The NX will have a handheld version (Lite) and the NX will have a home console version (Pro) Both platforms will play the same games and may use cloud tech to transfer data back and forth. All of the devs now are making games for one platform and thats the NX brand. Pro and Lite versions.

[contradictory]

i think they're gonna release it at the earliest in 2017..
probably because they'd want to get as much launch content for it as possible... but what do i know?

[PlatinumGX]

Nintendo has (supposedly) just recently handed the NX dev kits and you think a 2016 release is possible? Come on.

[Eldyraen]

First party would have had it for longer. Third party could just port a few of architecture is similar to PS/Xbox. Ubisoft would naturally have a dance/fitness game easy to transfer over anyways and probably a rabbids game or whatever.

[PlatinumGX]

That's true, however, if that was the case, what could the NX offer for those who aren't Nintendo fans?

If the NX would launch with a few Nintendo exclusives, some third party ports of old games, and Ubisoft shovelware, what reason would those who already have a PS4/X1 have to buy an NX?

It would be like the Wii U's launch all over again. Sure, if the NX has more power than the PS4 (which I doubt), it would entice people to buy one.

[Eldyraen]

I sort of agree as most big third party games going to the NX would need Nintendo to further change a lot of their philosophy/online structure but part of that could be fixed easier with devices built from the ground up for a better online experience and not just a patch that gets things sort of there.

I think the true potential of the NX is how far they go with hybrid/dual system rumors though. If they can bridge that gap it could replace both the Wii U and the DS basically.

[jmc8888]

You are thinking from the perspective of a new game from the ground up. Those take 4-5 years for a AAA game.

But what you forget is that they can take their Zelda game, and other games which are already in production, and I'm sure on some of their games they made this decision probably a year or more ago. So in essence they would have 2+ years (by this time 2016) to have switched gears on ALREADY in development games.

Meanwhile for 3rd party games, they could easily shift gears. Most 3rd party games already make a technically superior version in the PC version. So those assets don't need to be created, only ported. They could easily do this for the CoD's, Battlefield's, Assassin's Creed's, etc, etc, etc.

Any true, from the ground up, exclusive NX game, would take more time, like late 2017 to late 2018, even 2019, but they could easily shift gears of stuff already in production.

Remember alot of that production time is planning out the game, creating assets, etc. But this work that started on the Wii U can be ported over to the NX shaving that off the time you are thinking it normally takes, plus the fact that Nintendo probably DID this a year or more ago.

It can easily be done, provided they make the jump to X86, which is pretty much certain, especially when you see how IBM chips are not in play anymore. What else are they going to go with?

I can see the OS going android like, to garner that compatibility, but you don't need an ARM processor to achieve that.

[Doodleburger]

The only way i would even consider the NX as a purchase is if they take my wii u back on a 1:1 trade, and they have a unified account system in place so i can play my other games. Otherwise, i'll never touch another nintendo console again. And i'm sure i'm not alone after this last console turd.

[ZayZay_11]

Yes

[jmc8888]

..and remember folks, the 16nm FinFET process is already churning out production silicon.

Most this early is going to Apple as they secured the rights, but you can bet your sweet *$% that they have enough capacity to churn out a few dev kits for Nintendo.

All that talk about cutting edge, what ELSE could it mean besides that it's based on the 16nm FinFET process node that recently came online? That's cutting edge technology.

[Ck1x]

I agree with this statement, very few times has Nintendo releasing a console lined up so well with a technology jump that's currently happening. Nintendo just needs to pull out some of those cash reserves and make the NX as if it were their last console! Finfet simply allows Nintendo alot of options right now and as you've stated above, they can easily pick a gpu for NX that makes the current systems look stale in comparison...

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

If it's the handheld version yes

console version hell no

Why else did Square Enix confirm
Dragon Quest XI for NX if the game release in 2016.

Right Handheld version.

[Big_Game_Hunters]

IMO its the only viable play they have other than taking a hiatus and releasing a new console along side PS5 and Xboxtwo

[DittoHefner]

2016 or bust.

[Ck1x]

The best thing that Nintendo can do is not only hit the hardware out of the park, but have the right games at launch as well. 3rd parties react a little differently on Nintendo systems and they tend to want Nintendo to drive the install base before they fully commit, which is something they didn't do with the WiiU.

One of the biggest misconception's that most people have is that Nintendo gamers don't buy or play 3rd party games. But in truth most of us in the past have bought 360's or PS3's or planned to buy a PS4 or XbOne. The problem most Nintendo gamers have is in getting inferior ports to what's available, so most of just go buy the better versions of said games. If these games existed already on Nintendo platforms, we wouldn't go looking elsewhere for them.

[FallenAngel1984]

NX is going to be at a huge disadvantage because PS4 and X1 will be at their peak receiving all the AAA games and offering awesome price bundles

[EliteGameKnight]

I don't think it'll release next year. They said that they would talk about the NX at E3 2016, which would only give them 5 months to advertise the thing if they're planning on an November release, which is fine for a controller or game, but a console is a bit more of a selling point as well as having much more bugs to iron out by release. Even though the PS4 was announced the same year of it's release, it was announced at the beginning of the year, and Microsoft followed after to capitalize on a year of advertisement.

Also, Nintendo's past consoles haven't been released the year they were officially announced, The Wii U was announced in 2011 and came out in 2012, The Wii was announced in 2005 and came out in 2006, the GCN was announced in 2000 and came out in 2001, the N64 was announced 1994 scheduled for a 1995 release but came out in 1996, and so on

I understand that people are a bit antsy, but history has shown that it probably won't be the case. Even with affirmation of development, it is to be realized that companies begin their console development when the last console releases, not when its sales decrease. I'll of course be the first to retract my statements if it is a 2016 release, hardly any point in crying over it when it just means I get a console one year sooner.

[masso9112]

They said they would talk about it in 2016, they never said E3... Remember ps4 was announced on what month? March? Or something like that and released on november? Of the same year

[EliteGameKnight]

it was announced in February, but I see your point. We'll have to wait and see I suppose :)

[DC777]

Well they knew Wii U was dead in the water 2 years ago. Zelda and Metro and a 3D Mario could all be ready for the roll out. Combine that with easy 3rd party ports and some type of mobile tie in and they may have a good run.

They mostly need to create some hype. The others will be old news by then. Wii U may have just been a stop gap.