Growth in the "traditional gamer market" could require leaving traditional consoles behind, says Michael Pachter.
Seriously fellas, why are we getting updates on what that man says? On Topic: Stating the obvious is really stupid. Here i can state the obvious too... Call Of Duty is getting a new game next year, mark my words! Now give me money!
why are people puzzled by the inevitable? it has happened in music, it has happened with movies, why will it not happen with another media for entertainment? you can actually penetrate more customers by removing the cost of the console, which is a barrier in itself. most of us who support this industry already have the means to adapt. it's just those who don't want to adapt want to be the loudest voice in the room.
None of the other industries you mention has ever been as locked down as gaming. Got a VHS? Play it in ANY VCR. Got a CD? Play it on damn near anything. Got a Gamecube game? Play it on... a Gamecube. That's just one of the reasons why gaming isn't headed down the same path. Another? File sizes. Movies jump when they make transitions from one format to the next, but even then, they rarely take up all of a blu-ray disc(to say nothing of dual layered discs). Music is an even worse example, as those files are miniscule in comparison to the other two(oh, and vinyl, at the least, is making a comeback). On the other hand, games are jumping in size every few months. Definitely not the same. Do I have to get into- again- how there's just too much of the gaming world that DOESN'T have adequate internet? It may be the future, but it's not as close as you make it sound.
@Spotie, "None of the other industries you mention has ever been as locked down as gaming. Got a VHS? Play it in ANY VCR. Got a CD? Play it on damn near anything. Got a Gamecube game? Play it on... a Gamecube." got a sony tv, play on playstation now. got a samsung tv, play your playstation games on it. "File sizes." steam has more users than the ps4 and xbox one combined. it also supports the pc, mac and linux. "Do I have to get into- again- how there's just too much of the gaming world that DOESN'T have adequate internet?" you are not one of them, so why concern yourself? netflix relies on the internet. any other words of wisdom you want to add? like i said, those who prefer physical disk and consoles will be the most vocal against it and will make it appear as though it will never happen. you'll see.
I don't even get it. What is he saying exactly? That no one is going to buy anymore consoles and PS4 is stuck at 25 mil and the X1 is stuck at 13 mil?
No. Just that the market saturation of consoles isn't going to grow from here on out. So say last gen sold a total of 260 million consoles, this gen...and next will also sell 260 million consoles. Basically that the overall market won't grow anymore. Current install base also consists of last gen consoles, so what he's saying is that it's going to level out as people transition. If I had to guess though, I'd imagine it will ebb and flow, and continue to grow, most likely in spurts like last gen, as something comes along to excite consumer interest. I find this particularly true since the younger generation now will not know a life without gaming, whereas when I was young, it was a rather niche commodity.
Now confirmed: Install base will get much bigger.
Pachter is.....a Drama Queen.
It's true that you can game on those other devices, but their small form factor and pricing means they will never be competitive with traditional consoles in terms of power. The most powerful cpus/GPUs require cooling, so they can never fit into a phone or small set top box. And really what is the difference between a console and set-top box these days? They both run the same media apps. Just that the console is much more powerful. It's like Pachter is so desperate to be right with his old "end of console" prediction that he's arguing that somehow a set top box is different than a console
The current consoles are not even using the powerful tech that is available. The mobile stuff is always affordable, it's 1k to buy these things but even the poor have smart phones. Consoles forfeit their advantage by just using old tech. Here we are about to see 28 core cpus, hbm2, usb type c and gpus that mobile couldn't even imagine. Now we are starting to see mobile with direct x 12 level support and shaders that rival the ps4. These handsets actually are supporting 4k now in the phone. Once a wireless broadcast format is agreed on you can set your phone down grab a blue tooth controller and beam the whole thing to your tv. With type c usb you could actually plug your phone up to extranal gpu to boost the power. The difference is console are on a 5 year cycle. Things are moving much faster than 5 years. This has always hurt consoles tech wise but it has helped gamers because they save money on not upgrading. The problem happens when the youth doesn't get trained to play on consoles and phones, tablets, and steam, alienware etc etc will be chipping away at consoles. Few hardcore stay hardcore compared to the install based numbers. If I can get a phone that makes me more money and I can sit it down and play games then I've gotten my money's worth. I don't really care if consoles live on. I only care about the games. If console makers can make a system that trumps the interface of phones then I rally behind consoles. Yet if it's about power then consoles are done unless they change their pricing models. It's not a matter of mobile being competition. It's just consoles are mostly stagnant. Devs are going to other platforms while AAA milks the install base.
Michael's head is as big as it ever will be. Seriously why are we still hearing about this guy?
"The console installed base is as big as it's ever going to get" - Michael Pachter No shit, Sherlock.
There's no denying that this is where it's going. Our smartphones are just beyond 360/PS3 level now (they render most new games at 1080p, beyond 360/PS3 standards). With the way game budgets are going, we're reaching the maximum sustainable (unsustainable for most, e.g. Konami, Capcom) levels of investment, which means games aren't going to be getting much better looking or more advanced for quite a while. The amount of time, effort and money required to make a modern AAA title is only sustainable when sales are guaranteed in the 3-5 million plus mark. That's how many a lot of them sell, with the odd tearaway like COD and GTA going beyond that. With the market for AAA games in this status quo, games can't feasibly become much more advanced until the market expands, because it won't become much cheaper, really. The expense comes from having to create such highly detailed and ambitious content. And he's right: console gaming is pretty much at saturation point. The current generation is already running on hardware that will be ready for mass-marketed mobile solutions/set-top smart devices within the next year or two. You'll have tablets/TV boxes running similar hardware to the PS4, and within 2-3 years of that, phones. Once x86 starts making its way onto mobile platforms, you might start seeing an awful lot more gaming applications for these things. I can almost guarantee you'll see a TV (maybe even a tablet) with a built in PS4 at some point towards the end of its lifecycle. So basically, small form factor devices will be caught up towards the end of this console cycle, and just in time for development focus to shift from dedicated consoles to more all-purpose devices with the same capabilities or more. Then, when the market is expanded, games will begin to advance again.
So basically the console base is going to grow a lot.
Michael Pachter u doosh , u said that 3 yrs ago . Go back to Gametrailers
Yeah sure Pachter, sure ... Because every year no new Gamer's join the fray. Gaming is a stagnant past time, it attracts no new Gamer's /s
Well, there you have it folks. Based on this guy's track record, expect the console install base to grow to record levels. This clown gives broken clocks a bad rep.
He's been right much more often than wrong, I don't know where this misconception comes from. From the one or two cited examples that people give to perpetuate this myth, no doubt, among a sea of fairly on the mark results. He still has a top job at a prestigious market analysis firm for a very good reason. Because he's on-point 99% of the time.
"He's on point 99% of the time." Hahahahaha.
"...he's on point 99% of the time." If that's true then he must spend 99% of his time on non-gaming related business.
Well guys, the burden of proof is on you to prove he isn't. You can laugh it off like haughty children all you want but as far as I can tell all you have is indignation and practically nothing to back up what you say.
@ Light You have a strange point of view on how debates work. Why wouldn't you have any burden of proof yourself, especially given that your stance on this is clearly against the grain? Back it up on your end, wise guy. To that point, you haven't offered up any such evidence to support your assertions. Tell you what, you go ahead and hunt down 99 instances where Pachter has been right about gaming related projections (if you can). And I'll see if I can find at least a couple instances where he's absolutely and totally off base - you know, on the outside chance his crystal ball was on the fritz. Seriously, the old "everybody has to prove their case but me" is the best argument you've got? Or are you going to move the goal posts now (which would be quite Pachter like, ironically).
Just Remember guys, Whatever Pachter predicts, the opposite happens. So basically, console market will continue to grow.
How does this guy have a job? Literally every headline prediction he makes is wrong. This is hilarious.
Palm Treo Pro was released back in 2008 it could multitask on certain things, had 802.11b wifi support Micro-SD transflash cards had this for its system Qualcomm MSM7201 CPU 528 MHz ARM 11 GPU Adreno 130 now that could indeed run some 3D advanced gaming at the time, but think about that for a Min single core CPU/ less than 1GHz with a Adreno 130 GPU. Todays Smartphones not just high end now even some pay as you go smartphones are heading into not just only dual core, Quad core or Octo core with each core running in excess of 1GHz per core but we are in compute clustering! now on mobile phone's! than take into account even with the above there is Multiple Core GPU's that are also included in todays smartphones with speeds in excess of 800 MHz for the GPU! and than add in system ram even @ 4 GB for higher end smartphones. even some lower end smartphones can have 2 GB of system Ram. most today are running 1GB of system Ram. add in storage of upto 256GB Micro-SD HC flash cards. before games on mobiles was no way near what they are today, today's Mobile smartphones can run DirectX 11&12 APi,OpenGL3.0+ and higher and even Vulkan APi vs' back in 2008 DirectX 6 or 7 and those were stripped down on the much older smartphones/ Now its the full Api's, and epics Unreal 3 for example could run..the entire full in game engine can run on smartphones even 2 years ago..today the newest Unreal can run on todays smartphone's. think about this that top of the line smartphone in 2008 was only 7 years ago..about as much time as many gamer's has been on this forum and today smartphones can run LIVING ROOM OR DESKTOP QUALITY GAMES! That is what he is pointing out, he is not wrong, but on the same token console gameing is not just a single defined box any more under a TV its a defined compute environment for entertainment, its always been that way. its just now more options are there for consumers. living room consoles are not going away, the change in the box, or what functionality is added or subtracted is not really the idea of is this a games console. the very concept of the games console is a compute environment for "entertainment" the fact that if you yourself is entertained with a game console, or PC or mobile phone or a streaming entertainment box of some sort. or hell even the Very TV that may be a smart TV allowing compute gaming, than thats what really matters that is what really is important, is if the box or what ever can entertain you right? the game console as a concept in computing has changed. the hardware we have access today is like nothing before for the simple fact it's easy to aquire in the core foundation its vastly cheaper today than it has ever been for higher end hardware and contains the ability to run such advanced compute environments that to be blunt 15 to 20 years ago, a mobile phone really was just pretty much a single use device gaming was just a low tier priority. today, when you know your communications device is now able to run a game like grandtheft Auto :san andreas! its the idea of a communications device in the mobile area being able to run that type of game outside of laptops! and its able to run much advanced software kin to a general use device more like a PC and laptop than what it was like 20 years ago. thats the disruptive challenge that has taken place to game consoles , its not about elimination of..its about the evolution of.
Does this guy never get tired of being wrong?
Wait.... Is this not the same man... Who said Ps4 and xbox one would both fail. because their was no demand for a new console?
Before this gen, didn't this clown say consoles were dying and mobile would take over?
He also predicted global domination of Xbox One. Cloud becoming a major sticking point. He predicted 2012 world ending. Thank God because that sent God into action to change course because he knows Pachter must always be wrong as the one rule if the universe.
coming from the guy that was on the failed gttv says alot
This guy is paid for guessing. Judging by his looks alone he is no gamer so doesn't have educated grasp on the hobby itself. Not enough data within his own personal experience with gaming for it to be an informed guess.
I think what he is discounting is that the console industry has more than 25 years of data to base the information on. While, the mobile market has only recently expanded. Rapidly expanding markets can be volatile. (look at Silicon Valley circa 1990 for examples) It's more likely that the mobile market will perform more closely to Atari in the 80's (rapid expansion followed by bust) simply because companies are moving in rapidly to exploit the market. It is true that the expansion of the console market is finite. It is true that our gaming experiences are as vast and varied as ever. We will see some melding and mixing of technologies. But, it's the dedicated game market that forms the core of the industry. That market kept gaming afloat when it crashed in the 80's. (with the help of PC's) It brought it back in the form of Nintendo and Sega. It expanded it to what we see now. Functionality might change. Technology might change. The amount of people that play games (as opposed to dedicated gamers) might change. But, there will always be that core that yearns for a unique, home experience. (At least...I HOPE!!! LOL)
I swear Pachter is just trolling these days. Then again he’s the guy that said last-gen would be the last and that third-party pubs wouldn’t support new expensive consoles: http://www.escapistmagazine... The PS4 number is way too generous, even if you factor in emerging markets. I think it will be closer to his Xbone estimate at 110-120 million, but I think even that is a bit much. The Xbone number is absolutely stonking ridiculous, and there is no realistic comeback that could make that happen. The Xbone is selling slower than the PS3 did YTD, and that console hit about 86 million at the point in which I last looked into it. Xbone doesn’t have RROD re-purchases to inflate the numbers either, so a more sensible guess would be 50 million if they’re lucky. C’mon Pachter. http://i.imgur.com/71G0DXx.... Wii U - 20 million is again extremely generous. Nintendo's new console will be announced next year and likely released in 2017, if not the same year, and Wii U sales will never pick up at all at that point.
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