A Theory Behind Surge in Xbox One Sales

NY Times "In January, Sony’s PlayStation 4 walloped Microsoft’s Xbox One console in sales, outselling it in the United States nearly two-to-one."

[TomShoe]

http://www.nowinstock.net/v...

PS4s in stock everywhere.

I guess Sony decided to flood the US with systems in anticipation of the March NPD, knowing that MS had the incoming Titanfall bump. If Sony wins March, NeoGAF will explode, I guarantee it.

[kingdip90]

There are a lot of sold out notices on that list. Looks like they are still selling like hot cakes if that wasn't the case when you posted the link.

[Muffins1223]

amazon still got it 399

[devwan]

Only ones I'm seeing now are bundles and the basic model only at Amazon... and using the 999 trick, they still have a lot!

Looking here at Amazon March sales:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/be...

ps4 is selling more than titanfall, even mgs 5 prologue on ps4 is selling more than xbox one.

March NPD will be the most interesting since launch.

[White-Knight]

Last month, they kept a good chuck of PS4 for it's Japan launch.
Now the sales will rise this month.

[christian hour]

Its more than a theory. I've witnessed it myself in abundance. So far I've had 15-20 friends cave in and buy the xbone because they have been waiting months to get their hands on a PS4 here in Ireland (and some friends currently living/working in Australia). Some have already expressed regrets.

All my friends were 360 guys last gen, I was the only person I knew with a ps3, kinda sad really, i had a 360 too but I was always loaning my ps3 out to them so they could experience games like god of war 3 and uncharted/last of us or journey etc. It was experiencing such games which, lets be honest, you could not find any equivalent on the 360 (in my opinion) that made them go with sony this gen as they're somewhat part time gamers (unlike myself, i need all consoles to play all games etc). As one friend told me "It was naughty dogs track record last gen that made me go with PS4 this time." They dont follow gaming news so they werent even aware of micro's PR disasters this past year.

I wont be getting an xbone myself, not for a few years anyway. Held off getting a ps4 because of bills/rent/living and such, almost have enough saved up though :) Hopefully I can find one once I have the cash.

[BABYLEG]

No one I know regret the Xbox one purchase. Especially since there's actual games to play

[GameNameFame]

Tomshoe what are you talking about.

Besides 500 bucks bundles they are sold out everywhere in YOUR OWN links.

[XiSasukeUchiha]

Thanks for the info but is isn't accurate because it still like hotcakes everywhere else and the States bro

[FITgamer]

Amazon just got stock earlier today, It jumped to the #1 spot in pretty much no time.

[xDHAV0K24x]

legit, how many are gonna be flipped?

[lolCHILLbro]

PS4 should always sell 25% more than Xbox One based on price alone, even Sony knows this, if they aren't hitting that mark then they and their investors look at that as a failure, any business man will tell you this whether the thing is in stock or not

[Cupid_Viper_3]

Lol, Chill bro....

The PS4 cannot sell 25% more than anything since it sold out all the time. Meaning there's a limit to how much it can sell a month, since Sony can only produce a precise amount a month.

That's like saying that a Corvette is a failure because it couldn't hit 200mph in a quarter mile. Starting from zero, it will always run out of road before it can ever reach 200 mph.

Any business man that agrees with what you said is clearly divorced, paying child support, and probably owes some banks and investors a lot of money.

On topic: I don't think "theories" are needed to be honest. Microsoft and EA are teaming up and promoting the crap out of Titanfall and the Xbox One as they both have a lot riding on it moving an incredible amount of unit. And because of that, discounts and deals are flying left and right, and people are picking up more Xbox Ones.

It is my opinion that MS is putting in a lot more money into Titanfall (Bundles and discounts, and heavy promoting and ads) than they will get out of the game.

I believe that Xbox should outsell the PS4 in the USA for March, but will easily be outsold worldwide by the PS4 that same month. And by April, the spike from Titanfall will fade and things will be back to normal where the PS4 outsells the Xbox One Everywhere.

[Master-H]

Spin me right round baby

[mkis007]

as long as MS isn't outselling them 2-1 in the US like last gen , it is highly unlikely that sony would fail(28-46 million was the gap last gen in the US).

Eh you said it better cupid.

although i really am curious to see how well infamous moves ps4's, I have a bunch of friends who are waiting until now to buy one. The fact that it is only on ps4 should swing things.

[Ezz2013]

@lolCHILLbro

http://a.disquscdn.com/uplo...

[MRMagoo123]

Is this the next goal posts huh ? so its changed from sales against each other to how much each company is making because MS is losing in sales totals, to Sony should always be selling 25% more because of price alone .......lmfao you xbone fantards take the friggin cake i tell you.

[NeoTribe]

You would say that -_-

[thatsBangin]

Based on your theory chill, the 360 should be way ahead of the ps3 worldwide because of the price difference.
You're either deluded , or you just need attention.

[yeahright2]

I don't think you know how business works...

[die_fiend]

Did you look at your own link? I think you mean PS4s sold out in most places

[Anon1974]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Just a handful of expensive bundles available. If you check the UK tracker, still almost completely sold out and the Cdn tracker there isn't a console or bundle anywhere.

Now contrast that with the XBox One.
http://www.nowinstock.net/v...

You've got to wonder what will happen to Xbox One sales once the PS4 is more readily available. You have to think a chunk of Xbox One sales have to be from people just sick of waiting months for a PS4. I imagine now that the Japan launch is over we should see more supply flowing west.

[GraveLord]

It's not in stock everywhere. 50% of those retailers don't have the console in stock lmfao.

[Axios2]

Scarce PS4's is not the issue, you don't sell 850,000 PS4's in Dec(US) and less than 40k two weeks ago then say it's because they are scarce.

The only thing scarce about the PS4 is the number of retail exclusives compared with the X1.

X1....7
PS4...2

[TomShoe]

So much salt, it's giving me high blood pressure.

[DoesUs]

With spin like that you should work for MS. Oh wait, you already do. SALTY!

[gta_manic]

So your saying the ps4 its not scarce and selling really well...and that the Xbox has "retail exclusives" what's the point of your comment?

Edit: jusy saw the 1 bubble, I understand now

[mkis007]

the xboxone has retail exclusives and isn't selling well while the ps4 doesn't and is selling well...pretty good position to be in if you are at Sony. see I can spin too

[zeuanimals]

40k? Isn't that in Japan? How's the Xbox One selling in Japan? How about Europe? And how's it fairing against the supply constrained PS4 in the US in that February NPD again?

And give me some names of those big exclusives that I NEED an Xbox One for.

[Stunmonk]

Still no PS4 on shelves here, so I kinda have to disagree with you there.
You do know the X1 is the one in the green box. right?

[Master-H]

Yea i'm sure with retail exclusives like Fighter Within Xbone is going to take the throne easily /s

[AgitatedOcelot]

Nice to see how Kinect is working out so much better as a forced purchase, and not being used to make trash games no one wants like it was on the 360 huh?

Oh right... Nevermind.

[Kayant]

"you don't sell 850,000 PS4's in Dec(US) and less than 40k two weeks ago" - Yes because one week sales is so comparable to one month /s.

Nice spin there.

So Xbox one would be 908,000(Dec) to less than 42k two weeks ago. When it's hasn't gone out of stock for more than a day --> http://www.nowinstock.net/v...

[Angeljuice]

@Axios2

PS4...2? Really? In what parallel dimension?

Oh I see "retail exclusives", so we can discount games like Don't Starve, WarThunder, Warframe, Dead Nation et al, all of which are better in terms of quality and fun than a lot of full "retail exclusives".

I have played more hours in WarThunder than anything else this year, it's an amazingly good game, should we discount it as a game because it's free? Surely that's better than paying full retail for an inferior game, but I see by your logic that it stops it from being counted as a worthy game at all.

Essentially what you're saying is that Microsoft beats Sony on games because you have to pay full price for exclusives rather than get them free.

[AgitatedOcelot]

No no no no, Fighter within is a better game because it's a retail exclusive! Really it is, did you forget to put your Xbox logic cap on? (Hit yourself on the head with a cast iron pan for five minutes to achieve Xbox logic).

[gamer2013]

Those games are nothing to boast about besides, most are better played on the PC. I got to say though, Warframe sucks really bad and ever since patch 1.37 Warthunder is nothing but 250% more grindfest. Don't think so? Wait until you hit tiers 3-5.

[Angeljuice]

@Gamer2013

I love WarThunder, if you enjoy playing something it doesn't become a grind at all. I'm at tier 4 with the British planes and what you call a grind, I call a great reason to remain playing the game for months to come.

" Those games are nothing to boast about besides, most are better played on the PC."

So because you don't personally like a game it doesn't count as an exclusive? In that case the XB1 has zero exclusives as far as I am concerned.

The PS4 game of WarThunder is identical to the P.C. version and as virtually all Xbox "exclusives" are better on the P.C. that point is completely mute anyway.

[johndoe11211]

You have absolutely no clue what the hell you're talking about. "Scarce" is not determined by how many units are being made or sold, scarce is determined by supply and demand. If the item has a much higher demand than what is being supplied then that makes the item very hard to locate and purchase on the kmarket so the item is considered scarce.

The reason the xbone is not considered scarce is because the demand is not higher than the supply hence the reason xbones are are sitting on shelves all over the world.

[Evilsnuggle]

6.2 million PS4 But 3 million X1 : (
That looks a little bit like this

http://static.gamespot.com/...

[Clogmaster]

So what happens when PS4 hits 7 exclusives? Will sales plummet?

[Fz6soldier]

what are the 7 exclusives?

[SITH]

Reasonable and logical theory. Sony has no blame nor fault in this. They simply did what they were supposed to and circumstance may have led to Microsoft's benefit. At least I get more people to shoot in titanfall.

[Stoppokingme]

I have a radical theory concerning the surge in sales.

Maybe, just maybe it has to do with games. Maybe. No gamer is going to buy a console to make waffles (although it would be a nice feature.)

[WeAreLegion]

Killer sap?

[Angeljuice]

Well that may be true if Microsoft were outselling Sony, but as they are not, there is a major flaw with your argument.

If you're going to say " No gamer is going to buy a console to make waffles", you're saying that either Sony is ahead because they have more games for PS4 (probably true if you take into account all the PSN games), or that non-gamers are out-buying gamers this gen.

As Sony has the far more gamer-centric console (with non-gamers more interested in the compromised XB1 with its obvious TV-centric design), I can declare after due consideration, that your theory is utter nonsense.

[Stoppokingme]

Wow..words cannot describe how far you've missed the mark.

What I was trying to say before you so eloquently skewered my words is that people buy consoles for games and NOT it's peripheral features.

And the fact that you've turned this into a console war is pretty sad IMO. The XB1 has a good line up of games, but try telling that to a fanboy.

And before you ask, I do own a 360, a PS3, and a Wii. And over time I will own A XB1, a PS4, and a Wii-U. If you can't get over your prejudice for other consoles then I believe your theory is utter nonsense.

[jessupj]

If that's true then they should be staying the hell away from MS.

MS dropped the first xbox like a sack of potatoes when the 360 released. Then they did the say half way through the 360 life cycle.

Where as sony have staunchly supported every single one of their consoles with quality core titles.

Unless of course you don't mind spending $500 on a console that could potentially end up like the 360.

[Angeljuice]

@Stoppokingme

Sorry if I misunderstood your comment (although it was quite ambiguous). It just sounded like a generic "PS4 has no games" comment which annoy me no end because it simply isn't true.

You made a comment about games on an article about why there is a sudden spike in Xbox sales, It sounded to me like another baseless "Xbox has games Sony doesn't" type argument, that's why I responded in the manner I did.

[piffdabiff]

If one cant see the only sales that really matter are the global sales not individual sales by country, is an fool or a person with an IQ of a chimpanzee. So stop fighting over US numbers when it not the whole picture.

[bleedsoe9mm]

sony is selling really well in the 44 or so country's you can't buy a xb1 great job sony ! winning is soooo hard when the competition hasn't launched yet .

[Angeljuice]

Well I must admit it is much easier to sell your product when your main competition makes an utter mess of its "world-wide launch".

So you are indeed correct, Microsofts' mistakes and mis-management in its choice of launch territories is one of the many reasons it is loosing sales to Sony.

Maybe when (or if) they bother selling it in other territories they'll be able to get rid of some of the surplus supplies sitting around in warehouses everywhere.

[bleedsoe9mm]

@Angeljuice your not wrong it may very well be a huge mistake by MS , its also possible that sony should have cut back some markets and concentrated more units in NA and UK they might have huge leads in those important xbox strong holds by now . hindsight is 20-20 as they say

[Gamer666]

That is not entirely true. Your IQ is limiting yourself because not everything is about how many consoles you sell but more about who you sell them to.

For example... Japan has sold about 24 million consoles last gen... With about 155 million in game sales...

In comparison, the USA has sold 105 million consoles last gen with over 1.1 billion in game sales...

That means Japan has an attach ration of around 6.5:1 for games... But the USA has a game attach ratio of 10.5:1... That means it is about 60% more profitable (on game sales) for a console vendor to sell a console in the USA vs. selling one in Japan!

So would you rather sell 1,000,000 consoles in Japan or 700,000 consoles in the USA? As a console vendor I would make more money selling 700,000 consoles in the USA because it would be more profitable.

[piffdabiff]

This is true with some modification. Now I don't know this for surten but you are neglecting how much more people are paying for games outside the US. A 60 dollar game is about half the price of a new game in Sweden, for example. And I know there is more extreme cases out there the like Australia.

[Gamer666]

@piffdabiff

But these prices are based on the equivalent of a US dollar and the shipping, tariffs, import fees, and taxes in that country to get it into retail.

[feraldrgn]

Why the need for a theory?
PS4 just launched in Japan, common sense suggests that you can only manufacture a limited amount, meaning they had to split supply, so the number they can send to America is lower, while Xbones can be focused on less countries.
& Titanfall just released for the Xbone, it's pretty obvious that upped the sales considering the amount of media hype it recieved.

[Gamer1982]

Part of it mate plus Sony have come out and said it wont be freely available until April. Which probably means Japan is gonna get most of the stock until then to bump up sales there to get Japanese devs interested. Its all politics in gaming..

[No_Limit]

I went to best buy this evening and to my surprise there were at least 4 dozens of PS4 stacking in the front near the entrance. I never seen that before and finally supple is picking up.

[MRMagoo123]

For a start english would be nice so we can all understand and secondly pics or it didnt happen.

[No_Limit]

Sorry pal, I don't sit around in my mother's basement and use a spell check on my desktop PC like you do to post on N4G...I fast type on my phone and if there are any grammatical errors, sue me.

Oh BTW, you are missing a ' in didnt and the word "english" is always capitalized with an "E", Mr. English professor. ;-)

I don't have to proof anything, you can either believe it or don't as I can care less.

[Clogmaster]

Ah ha! Then you DO care! :)

[jessupj]

mmmm supple is picking up...

that turns me on a little.

[liquidhalos]

This is in response to your reply below, sadly the site wont let me reply directly.

Its not a case of using a spell check on a desktop pc (however as far as im aware all phones come with better built in spell check capability than desktop pcs) Its a matter of simply reading your post before you click "add reply"

And secondly im with MrMagoo123, lets see some pics. You do say you use your phone on n4g, one would presume that since you only have 2 bubbles you use it loads to troll and annoy. So you must have had your phone with you at the shop. Pic it and don't be so rude. Its tasteless, childish and more endemic of a basement dweller than your post implies of MrMagoo123.

[Afterlife]

But, it's still playing catch up
http://www.amazon.com/best-...

Titanfall isn't working. The only thing that can save the Xbox One is Halo 5 and Kinectless Xbox One.

[ruefrak]

I was actually shocked that the Titanfall bundle never unseated the PS4 on the Best Sellers list (and if it did, it didn't last long). Every time the PS4 is in stock, it seems to hold that #1 position.

The crazy thing is that this in the US, which is supposed to be Xbox country. This is the place where Microsoft was hoping they could dominate yet again. If they can't win here, then they have some serious problems.

[AgitatedOcelot]

Also it needs to be $299 for the kinect-less SKU.

That MIGHT get them back in it. But it still wouldn't put them ahead.

[N4GJD]

I thought all this is widely believed to be fact, not theory. Oh wait, fanboys!

[TardcoreGamer]

My theory in a sudden surge this time of year is simple. Income tax checks.

[Nodoze]

Income Tax checks...what are those? If your are getting a 'refund' you are doing it wrong! ;)

[assdan]

Wouldn't they be selling faster because it's right before the launch of their biggest game yet? I'm kind of expecting the xbox one to sell more than the ps4 for a week or two, especially in the US. If it doesn't, then they is a massive need for concern on Microsoft's part.

[Nodoze]

Not to mention EA's part as well. They bet on the wrong horse, and are going to pay for it in the end. Instead of cementing a new franchise, they split the user base. Yet another fk up from good old EA.

[assdan]

I wouldn't say EA bet on the wrong horse. Microsoft approached EA, not the other way around. I don't blame EA for taking those tons of money from Microsoft to do nothing.

[amnalehu]

I just checked Target, Best Buy, Kmart and Sears. They all have the Xbox 1 in stock if anyone is having trouble finding one. The PS4 is out of stock everywhere except for Amazon so if you want one hurry! Might pull the trigger on an XB1...

[JasonKCK]

PS4 is not out of stock. You guys really need to stop using that, it looks desperate.

[Clogmaster]

Please show me where!!!!!! I'm in Vancouver and have been looking at every store I go to whenever I go grocery shopping.

Futureshop, BestBuy, EBgames, London Drugs, friggin Shoppers Drug Mart, The Source, Superstore, Costco, and Target.

Every bloody week since November, and I have never ever seen one before.

Don't hate me for this, but the game I am most excited for is Dynasty Warriors 8HD...

[amnalehu]

Target- http://tgt.biz/1kRqzDI
Best Buy- http://bit.ly/1aR9qAO
Walmart- http://bit.ly/1j3wSDg
Amazon- http://amzn.to/Ne3Ra7

Desperate? See for yourself...

[Picnic]

It's only when The Order 1886 comes out that the PS4 has a system seller on a par with what Uncharted was.

[GraveLord]

There's a simple explanation for the Xbox One's boost in sales. Titanfall Open Beta. That's when the Titanfall hype peaked.

[Gamer666]

I think there are a few factors...

1) PS4 stock limitations
2) Titanfall Beta
3) MS has had a string of successes that have shown since launch of X1... DR3, Forza 5, Killer Instinct, Ryse, Powerstar Golf, Max and the Curse of Brotherhood, Peggle 2, PvZ Garden Warfare, and some really good, focused updates.
4) X1 game bundling

[Flames76]

Fact is people now know that there is no games on the PS4 and they are jumping on the Xbox One.Hell just 4 months into release and we have exclusives like Titanfall,Ryse,Forza 5,Plants vs zombies,Dead Risisng 3,Killer Instinct and thats just right now.Its the only system you can play Gears of War,Halo,and Titanfall on.I guess if you have a PS4 you can play Killzone shadow fall lol

[Hicken]

No games? That's weird. Seems like there's only about 5 games on XB1 that aren't on PS4, but like a dozen on PS4 that aren't on XB1.

That's really odd..

[razrye]

You can get titanfall on pc moron. This week I'll be enjoying infamous. What truly next gen exclusive will you be playing? Oh wait..... lol

[Ra3030]

Can someone please explain to me what surge they are talking about. Going from 150,000 in Jan. sales to 260,000 in Feb. to me is hardly a surge in sales. After all didn't thay sale 2 million of those X1 cable boxes in 3 weeks 2 months ago. And Jan. is post Xmas when people don't have a lot of money to spend anyway. Dose $$ Microsoft $$ really need to crow about sales in a month when they still fell shot of what Sony sold? I'm sorry I just don't get it.

[urwifeminder]

Top notch games is what is doing it no brainer there.