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Analysts Forecast Next Gen Sales will Fall Short of Current Gen, Also We Disagree

The well known Market Intelligence and Research Company "ABI Research" has forecasted that Next Gen Sales (PS4, Xbox One, Wii U) would Fall Short of Current Gen (PS3, Xbox360, Wii). However we disagree.

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Community1831d ago
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codelyoko1831d ago
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codelyoko1831d ago
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ADodoBird1831d ago

You people do realise that if any side has to be proven right we have to wait 5 years :P

Pope_Kaz_Hirai_II1831d ago

Well look at the ps4 for instance if you try to get one now for release day you have no chance (and im trying so hard btw) although ps3 was indeed 600 it was easy to get one at any time but people are being told where i live that febuary they will get their ps4... So i believe 1000% the ps4 will outsell the ps3.

codelyoko1831d ago (Edited 1831d ago )

Common sense and What he said ^

cleft51831d ago

If Sony is able to keep up with demand for the PS4 they will easily sell millions of consoles incredibly quickly. People are hungry as heck for next-gen gaming. If Sony can feed that demand they will easily outsell previous records.

thehitman1831d ago

It wasnt easy to get a ps3 either.

mouzone1831d ago

you must not remember people getting shot when the ps3 was released sony did not ship alot if ps3s at launch ive got every sony/microsoft console at launch since the psone and i can tell you every launch is about the same its in fact way more easy to get one at launch now because of pre ordering and places like amazon which you didnt have back then, people were waiting for theirt 360s and ps3s past January also its just more noticeable because of how much coverage these consoles are getting across the internet

nukeitall1831d ago

Well the PS3 also outsold at launch. Remember when Sony famously claimed they will pay you a $1000 if you found a PS3 in store?

Turns out there were plenty.

So there is no doubt the PS4 is likely to sell more initially, but will it in the long run?

The market hasn't really gotten bigger for core gamers. If anything, it has gotten watered down, and some of these casual gamers that once bought a console are now on tablets, PC, smart phones and so on.

Only option is capturing the casual market that once belonged to the Wii. MS is the only one really going after this market this time around so we will see.

If MS fails, the market is likely to be smaller and combined all three consoles will sell less than current generation.

FamilyGuy1831d ago

I think this upcoming gen will be short, like 6 years and something new will be out. Technology is moving at a fast pace in previous gens the consoles were leading the graphics curve, this time they're already behind. I don't see itt lasting as long. I think the sales will be really high for a few years but when the next thing releases it'll slow those sales to a crawl and who knows what they'll be at. 80+ million in 4 years is possible but it could go either way. I wouldn't make a 5 years in the making bet on either case.

pete0071831d ago

it depends on competition quality, steambox, tablet and mobile gaming, dont Forget ps4 and xbox are locked hardware for 5/10 years lifecicle depending on sales. PC gaming is becoming more and more afordable and with console aproach pc is benefiting more than consoles. i strongly believe who innovates the most will succeed, traditional gaming will suffer from competition and market share loss.
in 2 or 3 years mobile devices will have the power of theese consoles or even surpass them. if i can have a device that provides me the same experience on the go, ill buy it.

johndoe112111831d ago


Do you think it's possible for you to have a bloody neutral conversation without it having to turn into a bloody microsoft butt licking campaign????

We're not comparing nextgen systems here for christ sake, we're talking about nextgen as a whole.


rainslacker1830d ago (Edited 1830d ago )

Don't mind him john. He believes the casuals will lap up the $500 console, when they probably won't know the difference between that and the 360 w/ Kinect Bundle which will be half the price.

More neutrally speaking, this gens console sales weren't exactly lighting up the charts compared to the prior gen. Overall more was sold, but it was spread out more, leaving no clear winner, unless we actually include the Wii in the mix, which no one here is willing to do.:)

I think current hype is normal at the start of a new gen. Near the end of next year, things will get back to normal when the systems are easily found in stores, and the excitement wears down among the hardcore. Sales will likely be even year over year compared to this gen, unless there is a definitive leader, and more risks are taken to produce better games that appeal to a broader audience like with the PS2 gen.

I say this because I feel my analysis is just as good as any random blogger on the internet...which is the article in question.

Otherwise, I agree with the original poster. It'll be many years before we can prove if this statement is true or not, and no one will remember this over all the doom and gloom articles we start seeing come the 3rd week in November.

lilbroRx1830d ago

The same was true of the Wii U, PS3 and Wii during their launches.

Not being able to get a console at launch is an indicator of nothing.

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showtimefolks1831d ago

100 plus million

70 plus at the moment at $299
xbox 360

i believe both ps3 and xbox360 will sell quite well for atleast 2-3 years meaning both have realistic chance of selling 100 plus million

what i don't like about these so called know it all guys is they don't know if gaming industry is gonna catch fire or slow down, i believe ps4 and xbox one have a very realistic chance of selling 75 plus million and wouldn't be surprised if one gets pass 100 million

culpepper5161830d ago (Edited 1830d ago )

definitely not. current gen came out before the iphone. social media and app support will turn next gen systems into much more of a hub for its users. i expect them to destroy past sales. expecially when the ps4 is cheaper than many tablets, and it can do so much more

Unreal011831d ago (Edited 1831d ago )

I agree with the article, if my circle of friends/family is anything to go by then this gen will be one of the most popular yet, especially with China now fully in the game. Any how, we'll have to wait 5 years to see what happens, it's all just meaningless speculation at this point.

jeffgoldwin1827d ago

I agree with you except for referencing 4-8 of your friends/family as a valid sample group. It's like saying a drop of water affects a lake in any way.

I'd reference other things like pre-sales and the anticipation for this next gen.

MASTER_RAIDEN1831d ago (Edited 1831d ago )

so not accurate. Generation after generation has followed a very specific format, with only the most recent gen breaking the cycle by having all 3 brands stay healthy. theres literally no reason to believe (based on the statistics alone) that this even more affordable coming gen will slow down for any reason.

"without solid titles and first party franchises.."
do you think previous IPs have just disappeared, orrrr?
console numbers will hit new records next generation for every brand other than nintendo, which will probably still have a leg to stand on throughout the gen due to its handheld sector.

Viking_Socrates1831d ago

It should be noted that the current day consoles sales numbers didn't explode until 2008 or 2009 (I'll find a graph later) especially when it comes to the PS3. So I wouldn't expect it to be massive out of the box, although a lot of people I've talked to are hyped for both systems so who knows.

We'll get final results in 5 years.

stavrami1831d ago

unless u show me the graph ur comment is noted as not valid .the judge has hit the gavel and the jury is retired

OrangePowerz1831d ago

The Wii pushed the numbers higher by the fact that many non gamers bought one so it`s hard to say if they will hit the sales numbers after 5 years with the Wii U being kind of out of the picture.

If we compare only the first 5 year sales of 360+PS3 I`m certain that the Xbone+PS4 will sell more in 5 years.

Jay70sgamer1830d ago (Edited 1830d ago )

Never underestimate sells hardware ....look what they said about wii and 3ds.....Lets see how Sony and xbox sell after the Christmas holidays when the hype is gone and the software drought every new console goes through for the first few months ..both systems will sell well this Christmas ...but next year all 3 companies will be on even footing and it will be all about the software (games) Also you must look at also that regardless of how wii u is doing at this time ...they do have an almost 4 million unit lead before both systems come out just saying

OrangePowerz1830d ago

If I remember right the Wii did well sales wise right from the start. Nintendo got lucky with the Wii because the casuals bought into it and continued to do so and it was a lot cheaper. It had some great games, but that`s all there was to the console that it had a few great games.

The Vita was never really a competition for the 3DS unfortunately.

The Wii U was marketed bad since the reveal when they only showed the GamePad, but nothing else and the name doesn`t help them either because those casual people see the Wii U and don`t know what it really is. Once PS4 and Xbone get the really good games next year Nintendo will struggle and the 4 million units lead will be gone by the end of Q1 start of Q2. They need to stop relying on the same franchises they have since over 25 years to get sales. I loved Nintendo until the GameCube, but what they did afterwards doesn`t do it especially not for core gamers that play since the NES.

I don`t want Nintendo to stop making consoles, but I want them to go back to make competitive consoles again and start making more new IPs. They can continue making Zelda and Mario, but look at what new games Sony and MS made in the last 10 years and compare that to Nintendo. It`s incredible how far Nintendo fell behind the competition in regards to software and hardware.

Jay70sgamer1829d ago (Edited 1829d ago )

@orange I think you are forgetting who is the console and handheld leader for the last 8 years (nintendo)that's a fact not hearsay and do you really think next year nintendo wii u is gonna struggle I think not...look at this list of games smash bros ,mario kart ,donkey kong tropical,zelda u and X...remember mario kart sold 34 million copies ...more than any franchise (1)game ,smash over 10 million sold,zelda u is gonna sell and donkey kong is gonna sell I see nintendo having a bigger year next year plus all the hype will be gone for the new consoles it will be all about the games casual games next year mario party this year wii fit u and wii u party and sonic ....nintendo is gonna be fine ...also nintendo has the best software division in the world keep saying they make the same franchise over and over no two games are the same sunshine or galaxy or mario 64 all different just mario name plus you talking about milking how many halos ,gods of war ,came out in the last generation alone at least nintendo only brings usual one per console generation

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