Hi-Def DVD Sales Plunge; Format War, PS3 Blamed

The market for HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disk is smaller than initially forecast, according to a statement from movie studio Warner Brothers

Warner Brothers confirmed that it was slashing its expectations for high-definition DVD sales for this year on drastically lower sales for HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc players.

The studio had forecast that Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD, two rival next-gen DVD formats, would sell a combined 4.5 to 6.0 million players by the end of 2006. Now the company only expects 1.5 million hi-def players to be sold this year. As a result, Warner Brothers is slashing its DVD sales forecast from $250 to 400 million to just $150 million.

[Watapata]

Hi-Def DVD sales haven't plunged because they never took off...

[PS360WII]

I mean they probably won't buy that stuff yet either. Plus like it was said many times before the Hi-Def era is still the minority at 5% or so. I don't get the PS3 blame part of the title, but if you must. I know I'm going to buy some hd-dvd's and blue-rays but not until after mid-point november.

[LiquifiedArt]

HD-DVD never left the ground. And anyone who knowns anything, can easily assume with the presence Sony's PS3 will bring Blu-Ray will win the "What they call a war..." hands down. Not a war just a win/win for Sony.

[drewdrakes]

And blu-ray doesnt even deserve it. I checked it out at my local Best Buy, the unit was doing horribly. There was a tonne of artifacting, and throughout what i saw, there were constantly random blocks of pink showing up at the center of the screen.

P.S. I havent seen HD DVD yet, i hope its not like that, and if so, neither of them deserve it.

[Arkham]

It's too early to judge, on either format. Early hardware, lack of mindshare, no "bulk" PS3 user base. We're really going to see things take off in the Spring.

[Watapata]

NEITHER has left the ground yet, and neither will for a fair while, regardless of unit market penetration. As far as picture quality, the first wave of Blu-Ray movies were noticably worse in terms of quality when compared with HD-DVD, but apparently (judging from the picture quality of click) the new movies on the 50 GB discs are/will be at least equal in terms of picture quality.

[Arkham]

It's not specifically because they're on 50GB discs, it's due to the encoding. Also, judging one or the other based on viewing them in a Best Buy (or similar retailer) is pointless. Those are not optimal (and often are disimilar) configurations.

[USMChardcharger]

What do these people not get? hardly anyone has HD-TV's.

The TV's are the anwser. Not the players.

How are they going to sell any kind of HD Player and HD-DVD when we can't afford an HD-TV? (whew! that was a lot of HD in one sentence)

how about working on getting these tv's to the every day people. lower the prices please. Then we will buy your fancy movies and players.

[Daewoodrow]

It's probably better this way. Let them wait a year or so until they feel confident enough to try again, that way they don't think they can push us onto the next format every three years and reap the profits every time the format gets cheap enough for the working class consumer.

[THELANDSOFSAND]

oh what do you know?

surprise- no one cares when only 5% have the TVs for HD!

bluray has flopped before the PS3 push even started... how can they make this such a main feature when 95% dont care?

[Arkham]

Sorry, Sandy, but that's a rather ignorant statement. If that's the way technology worked, then nothing new would ever be released. You're too impatient.

[Capt CHAOS]

The hard core have bought HD-DVD or BLU RAY. The leaves the 99.999% of the remaining public who just don't give a damn..

[richie007bond]

Trust sony to start a format war,HDDVD is the offical next gen dvd not beta ray sonys arragance has delayed the ps3 and is damageing the furture of next generation dvds

[Watapata]

This is not a matter of Sony, or anyone else for that matter. Blu-ray has more industry support than HD-DVD besides. This is bad for consumers no matter how you look at it, but both sides are at fault and it doesn't come down to just Sony and Toshiba, it comes down to everyone involved and that includes Microsoft for picking sides in the first place. Each company that has aligned with one side over the other is at fault in this.

[MetalNCarnet]

You need to do your research before you say something this ignorant. There are more movie companies leaving Blu-Ray all the time. Even Universal (the biggest movie company) has denied and disowned Blu-Ray.

[THAMMER1]

By the time PS3 hits 1,000,000 in sales. BR HD DVD hybrids will be available. So the format war is far from over.

HD dvd VS BR DVD SALES on amazon.com

BR DVD:
http://www.amazon.com/Sony-...

HD DVD:
http://www.amazon.com/Toshi...

HD dvd is ahead for now.

[lalaland]

PS3 alone will sell more than 1mill before christmas this year -- no company has even announced plans to develop a Blu-Ray / HD-DVD hybrid standalone player yet, and for now it is impossible to make one. Silly statement....

[whateva]

and there you have it both formats on the PS3

[UrbanJabroni]

And of course Sony is just going to open up the PS3 and allow anyone to do whatever they want with it.

Install your own software and mods, thus ruining the publisher's ability to make additional revenue. Sure, go ahead.

Install you own media player so you can avoid purchasing Sony media? Sure, why not?

Install your own homebrew games so you can run free emulated classics rather than paying for them? Sure, why not?

Install homebrew/Linux games that way you don't purchase titles that give Sony royalty? Sounds good to us!

Use it as a computer (without a printer?) that way people spend less time playing Sony games and purchase fewer Sony computers and laptops? Hey, that is a great idea!

I mean, we all enjoyed all of these things on our PS2 like they said we would, right? Have you been following the same Sony I have been...or do you just shut up and swallow whatever they spoon-feed you each morning.

[DJ]

And his take was that HD-DVD has a lot less storage than Blu-ray, and that while Blu-ray is better for games and storage that HD-DVD is better for movies. When I asked him why he literally said "There is something in HD-DVD that makes the picture better for movies." And he's totally aware that the two formats use the same video codecs, but no matter how much I asked him to explain this 'magical something' that makes HD-DVD video better he kept giving the same response. "I can't explain it. It's just..something in there."

It was like dealing with someone who was brainwashed and couldn't snap out of it. Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the people who say HD-DVD is better either can't explain why or come up with false justifications.

HD-DVD is ahead because it was launched a lot earlier, and both formats are selling at the same rate. I don't see sales of HD-DVD rising significantly...ever. It just doesn't have any superiority, technologically or price-wise. Blu-ray sales will start to take off after the PS3 launches, but not at some enormous rate. It'll take about 3~4 years before it takes over all other disc formats. Maybe longer. It depends equally on the success of PS3 and the global adoption rate of HDTVs. One out of five households in the U.S. are going to have an HDTV by the end of 2006, but it's going to be a while before HDTVs replaced SDTVs as the standard, cost being the largest factor.

[PS360WII]

you are blind as the hd man. Does blue-ray have that certain something that makes it better than hd-dvd? Or is it just that sony says so? Either way as of right now (I don't care what codes they use) HD-DVD has the better look. end of story... but I will say at least for now, least for now

[DEIx15x8]

The reason that the DVD format took the place of the VHS is that it had the ability to quickly skip around. More important than the huge quality difference or any other new feature. An average consumer, the ones that choose what format will win wants a major feature that makes it a must have, not a gimmick. The first people to buy DVD's were there for the quality and gimmicks, i can still remember when my uncle got a player and how cool he thought the ability to switch angles was, well i have yet to get a DVD that does that so who cares. That is why one major feature will win. Blu-Ray from everything that i have seen is just a DVD with higher quality and some more bonus features, nothing that even makes a normal consumer interested yet. HD-DVD has this cool looking layers feature that will interest more people than the launch group and maybe even the main community but still is more of an eye candy because not many people buy DVDs for the directors commentary. Once that one major must have feature that makes the movie watching experience better and easier is discovered the public will be ready to adopt but right now both suffer from insanely long load times that the mass consumer market will never put up with, so right now no format stands a chance to win in there current status.

[lalaland]

-> PS360

Even now Blu-Ray titles has catched up with the quality of HD-DVD. HD-DVD has had the better picture quality up until recently because of a number of factors:

1. Even worse quality Blu-Ray player than the HD-DVD player.
2. Only single layer Blu-Ray discs available until the holiday season.
3. The use of a less efficient codec on Blu-Ray on early titles.

But there are multiple reasons why Blu-Ray will deliver better quality in the future.

1. More space available on doublelayer Blu-Ray discs allowing for higher bitrates and use of other codecs.
2. Faster drive speed on Blu-Ray (54Gbs compared to 36Gbs) allowing for higher bitrate and use of other codecs.
3. More and, because of competition between a multitude of manufacturers, better quality hardware for Blu-Ray.

-> DEIx15x8

That "layers" feature is available on Blu-Ray as well and is included in titles for this christmas. The format used for HD-DVD features like that is actually a quite simplistic featureset defined by MS. It allows for easy setup of eyecandy like that "layer" effect you mention, but it is not very extensible. Blu-Ray on the other hand uses a Java-variant, making it a lot more extensible, in time even allowing for small games and the like. Java btw is used for most settop boxes today and some webcontent as well.

Blu-ray will in time have a lot more advanced extra features compared to HD-DVD -- and more space for it as well.

[blackmagic]

I run a business in Custom Home Theatre and as such have done tons of research on both formats including extensive demos for both formats on my own 'not too shabby' home theatre setup (Optoma HD81 1080 projector, 133" Stewart Firehawk screen, NAD Master Series and PSB Platinum speakers - 7 speaker setup with two dual 12" woofers.)

I believe that this 'magical something' that is included with HD-DVD would be Thompson's Film Grain Technology, the inclusion of this technology has been made mandatory by the DVD Forum. Blu-ray does not include a technology that is comparable in any way to this.

The 2k transfer(1920x1080 down converted from 4096 x 2160 to preserve detail) is much too large to fit on even a 50 gig BD so it is compressed using a lossy format such as MPEG2, VC1 or H264.

The algorithms used to compress the transfer effectively destroy the grain in the picture and this is where Thompson's Film Grain Technology comes in. It enables film grain that is extracted before the content is compressed to be re-created during playback. It is an esoteric thing which is hard to describe but gives a much more film-like quality to home theatre.

The truth is, when using a modern codec (not mpeg2) combined with the film grain technology you can achieve better quality on HD-DVD even when compared to recent dual layer releases like 'click'. An untrained eye may not be able to quantitatively describe the differences but will notice a 'magical something' missing in Blu-ray.

For the record, when my clients ask me which way to go, I tell them to wait a 12-18 months and ask me again. HD-DVD may have price and quality in it's corner but Blu-ray has better industry support plus consumers are fickle beings easily motivated by savy marketing.

[NextGen24Gamer]

Well said. I been telling some of these sony blu ray supporters that for a while. I even posted a link to the film grain tech you are talking about. It does ad that special something to the quality of the movies. HD dvd also has the name. DVD is the standard worldwide. You add HD to it and its easily seen as the next best thing. Many people have no clue what the heck blu ray is. And when they see the price, it really makes them say "heck no". For a movie formatt to succeed...disc space when you are talking about 45 gigs vs 90 gigs...makes absolutely no difference to the average consumer. 45 gigs is more than enough for the movie and many many bonuses. Ps3 fans seem to think that because sony uses it in the ps3, it will help with the movie sales for blu ray. It won't. You can have 1 million ps3 owners on the market...but there is no way of knowing how many have HD tv's and how many will buy blu ray movies. With HD dvd, and the hd dvd add on for the 360, you know exactly how many people are going to actually purchase HD dvd movies. There is no guessing game. Someone who owns a ps3 but doesn't have an hd tv....will not buy a blu ray movie. And right now, hd tv owners are a very small percentage of the population. And we can guess that more will own hd tv's. but how many will own 1080p hd tv's to fully enjoy their blu ray movies? It looks bleek for blu ray. HD dvd has film grain tech, and 60 of the top 100 movies. Over 100 movies out right now...vs 50 for blu ray....And the name...DVD. Believe it or not...that makes a HUGE difference to MOST consumers.

Then you couple that with this poll taken on teamxbox.com

Do you plan on getting the HD-DVD player for the Xbox 360?
Yes
38%

No
32%

Undecided
31%
Total Votes: 4,050

http://www.teamxbox.com/

If indeed over 40% of 360 owners get the hd dvd drive. You can count on at least 4 million of the 10 million 360 owners by the end of the year buying the hd dvd drive...FOR MOVIES. Compare that to the 500k ps3 owners that you have no idea whether they will buy ONE blu ray movie. It becomes a whole lot clearer....WOW. Thanks Microsoft

[JasonPC360PS3Wii]

Do you people really think HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are the future? Why would anyone want 50 disks in there front room? When all they need is one small hard drive-server the size of a walkman that can hold them all and plug in to any device. Just take the drive to your local best buy, blockbuster or grocery store or just freaking download them. (Downloadable content anyone! Can we say IPOD) and with compression software getting so much better everyday you would just be wasting your money.

[NextGen24Gamer]

I agree. But.....That will ONLY be the standard when EVERYONE has a hd tv and High speed internet. We are a long long ways off from that.