'Christmas 07 will be key' - Guillemot

Ubisoft president Yves Guillemot has told GamesIndustry.biz that he believes Christmas 2007 will be an important factor in determining who wins the next-gen console war.

Speaking in an exclusive interview, Guillemot said, "I think next Christmas will really be key. In January 2008, we will have a really good idea of who is going to win in this generation."

Guillemot believes it's too early to predict how market share will be split in the new cycle; however, he did state, "For sure, Nintendo and Microsoft will play a bigger role than in the last cycle."

[THELANDSOFSAND]

I sense by the end of 2007 it will be clear through games, sales and online support who is the winner in the generation. isn't it the first to 10 million?

I think this christmas would be more relevant, but the shortages will make it not fair in sales terms.

[Tut]

That 10 million units thing is just a theory, so I wouldn't rely on it too much.

The shortages will greatly affect this thing though. As long as I get mine and games keep coming I don't care who "wins".

[WhEeLz]

thats why he said christmas "07" not this year....

[daboosa]

i like tht one!!!

[Sphinx]

This Christmas will be important and all, but its next Christmas that will basically proclaim the winner.

[Dusk]

This Christmas, the PS3 will be mostly dwarfed by the Wii and the 360. This is due mostly to PS3 manufacturing problems and that the 360 is farther along in its game release cycle. Next Christmas, however, these two factors won't be an issue. The PS3 will have finally launched in Europe and both competing systems (360 and PS3) will have lots of games on the market.

Microsoft has already scored a huge victory with the 360's early release, however. I'm not saying which system will outsell the other, but the 360's early release has secured itself an equivalent amount (actually a little more)of developer support as the PS3. This is a huge deal. The PS2 was a far inferior system (hardware-wise) than the Xbox, but it had 10 times the developer support. Ultimately, that is what made the PS2 so successful. There were just so many more games for it, even if they didn't look or play as good.

This time around, the game output is looking to be very similar as far as numbers of supporting developers go between the two systems (with the slight edge at this point actually going to the 360). This fact alone will sell more 360s than original Xbox's. The real battle between the 360 and PS3 won't really start until Christmas 07, however.

[zonetrooper5]

There might be a shortage of PS3's by next year around christmas, they are trying to get many consoles to japan and north america. Then in 3-4 months time they launch in Europe which the PS3 will be in short supply. the PS3 shortages will last until, well i reckon until end of summer maybe even into fall of next year.

[Calicojack]

I am an admitted Nintendo fanboy(if that is the terminology we must use). But I am sick of the bickering. The only real "war" is between the fans. The fact is there doesn't need to be a "winner". It benefits us all by having 3 great systems. I would love to own all three but Ican't afford it, yet. I think if there were to be one system winner then we would lose the great innovation that competition creates. I think we all know what is like to deal with monopolies and it is no fun. But that is what is different about games. There is now finally really something out there for everyone. For every price range, for every age group and every gender. And that's ok. If you like FPS and online play then yeah, XBOX is probably great for you. If you value an all in one system with room to grow and the most advanced technology than the PS3 is a great choice; and the price, who cares because you've already spent a couple thousand on the TV, speakers and cables. I like nintendo because it gives me what I want, innovation, Zelda and a low price point. I happen to like the concept of the channels and what I think the system can evolve into. In the end there these are all great products and at the risk of sounding really corny, they are all winners in my book.

[beans]

Good post and especially the part were it says "we are all winners"! I've grown tired of reading posts lately and your kind of comment makes me feel better knowing that there are people out there like me that just love games! I know that many people will just look over your post but many people that don't post ever will see it and know were your coming from!

[PS360PCROCKS]

I said this yesterday, geez I am going to start posting my own articles with my own quotes because anybody could have predicted this...

[Marriot VP]

This has been what I've been saying for the last uhhh year. Only until Sony's hard core fanbase runs out at 600 will we see the true publics reaction to the consoles price. The 360 drop will be after Halo 3 I believe. The PS3 at that time will be no threat and they want to capitalize on the Halo 3 demand at 400.

Now that's pushing it for Microsoft to keep the Premium at 400 that late. It all depends on whether they want to make a lot of profit than make a huge price drop, or make tiny ones over 2007 after Christmas.

But it still surprises me the majority of people waiting till the consoles going down to 200-250 to buy one. Their gonna be waiting 3-4 years for the PS3, but 1-2 for the 360. However you have the familiarity of the PS3, but in the long run it doesn't matter. Normal people will buy the console cheapest for multiplatform games. Wii doesn't count because it won't go the distance among many problems it has both in public image and hardware.

I'm still calling a tie for Sony and MS.

[TheMART]

Yeah this guy just says: 'The later we take to compare the sales, the more clear it is who wins'.

Ofcourse, if you look next year it's more clear who sells better. If you look 2 years later, it'll be even more clear.

I think it's reasonably clear already. At the end of this year 360 will have sold 10 million. PS3 will sell max 500k these holidays. There aren't more. @ Christmas millions of consoles are sold each year. Now guess what people will do when the PS3 shelves are empty and the 360 has normal delivery...

It'll even go over 10 million I bet that way. Thanks to Sony. And indeed the 360 will be @ 200 dollar/Euro first. Because the CPU die will be smaller soon, even in early 2007 possibly.

I don't see the PS3 succeeding as it did last gen. If it's a draw between the three, could be. Although I don't think it's impossible 360 will be on top. Wii could even end up second and PS3 third.

[unleash bass]

Anyone with any sence knows already who will turn out to be the winner this xmas.