Blu-ray will beat HD-DVD, says Forrester (again)

Last year around this time Forrester Research predicted that Blu-ray would triumph over HD-DVD. They reiterated that opinion (paid access only) on Thursday, noting that Blu-ray will win because it's got:
* Greater manufacturing support
* More movie titles
* A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)
* Greater storage capacity (making it more useful in the long run)

Still, Forrester's calling BRD's ultimate triumph a pyrrhic victory because the war between BRD and HD-DVD "will significantly slow down adoption of standalone players." Furthermore Forrester's analysts believe that "neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray will flourish until consumers think they see a winner."

Forrester doesn't acknowledge the elephant in the room: If it takes too long for a "clear winner" to emerge, alternate delivery formats (such as digital distribution) may leapfrog both Blu-ray and HD-DVD.

[joemutt]

I dont have to buy either BR or HD until I feel its worth it.

I game at home and watch movies in the theaters.

[THELANDSOFSAND]

"A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)"

oh yeah, just like UMD and PSP! that was a killer success!

[HyperBear]

how did you get down to only 3 bubbles?, Must have pissed off the wrong ppl there, eh?

[kmis87]

It's probably because almost all of his posts just talk about how much he hates "blur-ray," his words not mine.

[THELANDSOFSAND]

yes, the bubble nazis raided me for calling jin a a$$hole in reply to his similar insults. i would like more than 3 bubbles if you feel like clicking for me to speak, but i know some people (*cough* zypher, jin *cough*) hate me and would like to see my bubbles at 0, but whatever...

now then, blu(R)-ray is currently technically inferior to HD-DVD as it uses MPEG2 technology to compress its data. this will change as the 50gb discs are released. but currently its blurry compared to HD-DVD. Sony would like you to believe otherwise. This is a lie. I like to remind people of that.

Now if i lost my bubbles for saying "blur-ray" to make a point then this whole site is getting a little up tight on how people communicate.

[HyperBear]

I would give you positive feedback, but you hate PS3 and have continuously put it down and for what, just cause you cant afford it and think that all the tech in the PS3 and esp. the blu-ray is crap. Man I dont know why you and TheMart and all you guys keep putting down the PS3 when you have probably never played it yet, and have never seen it up close and personal. So I dont know why you guys are following the footsteps of the retarded Sony Fanboys of 2005, when they said Xbox 360 sucks and all that, turned out it didnt suck, and then all those bashing posts about the 360, just kicked themselves in the @$$. But really, I dont see a problem with the PS3, but you do, and you continuously put it down, so NO. I only give out pos. feedback to ppl who are gamers (Gamers are people who love consoles for what they do, which is play VIDEO GAMES, and they dont choose sides and dont flame on a particular console cause they hate it. Gamers love all consoles and have a real passion for gaming) <--- Something that you and a lot of others on this site, do not have.

[Daytona]

HD-DVD will win due to a better picture and it's less expensive, really no other content will be used to judge by the public for the most part.

[Tut]

Hahaha! I like that guy's comment on that article.

"Digital Distribution 4tw!!!"

I couldn't agree more with that statement...

~

[eques judicii]

they still think the ps3 will come with two hdmi... nope:
http://www.us.playstation.c...

I'm also not sure if the RSX really beats the ati card in the 360... if anything its a tie. While the RSX does have faster bus speed, it is limited in developers decision... the 360 ati card can due both anti-aliasing and HDR while the RSX cannot.. meaning that the two systems would come out even..

[DJ]

We've been seeing plenty of PS3 titles with HDR AND Antialiasing at the same time. It's pretty obvious even during pre-launch that the PS3 has a noticeable graphical edge.

[kmis87]

I don't know about those specs (I realize its the US Playstation site). I was pretty sure that the ps3 was going to have 4 controllers, and then the other 3 bluetooth connections were for other things (headsets, racing wheels, other accessories). I have no idea about that two hdmi rumor. Where did that start anyways? If it was kotaku....

[lalaland]

Both PS3 systems will have one HDMI connection.

The PS3 accepts up to seven simultaneous wireless controllers -- NBA 07 for one supports them for 7 gamers in one match on one PS3.

The X360 supports virtually "free" AA but the PS3/RSX supports AA as well -- it's just not "free".

So far several crossplatform games seem to have a graphical edge on the PS3 (VT3, RR7, FA2, Blazing Angels, FNR3, Marvel Ultimate Alliance) and none, so far, have an edge on the X360. Several crossplatform games are in higher resolution on the PS3 as well. And these are launch games...

[nambo]

Where do you get this information? Pictures? Hardly a reliable source. Let's wait until the PS3 is actually out before making guesses like that.

[coxyefc]

from a neutral point of view, i cannot help but feel the ps3 footage we have seen are from expensive tvs with more money having to be spent on hdmi, its a rip off.

[BIadestarX]

I don't know who to believe. It came out on the news and all over the net that HD-DVD has more movies in the market and blu-ray.

[power of Green]

In the end none of this BS matters, only price will declare the winner as it always has. People will not buy $1000 dollar DVD players and theres not enough gamers to hold as much market as DVD did. Blu-ray's the 3DO or Neo-Geo of DVD. I can't force myself to believe Blu-ray will win.

[DJ]

But that didn't stop it from killing the VHS market. The argument for HD-DVD is that while it's inferior, it's also cheaper. The argument for Blu-ray is that while it's a bit more expensive, it's superior to all other formats.

Movie prices across both formats are relatively equal. My local Circuit City sells HD-DVD movies for around $25~30 and sells Blu-ray Discs for around $20~25. At Best Buy they price Blu-ray movies higher I think.

Once PS3 comes out HD-DVD won't stand a chance. There have been many articles in reputable magazines and newspapers that openly discussed Blu-ray's superiority, and most people agree with what they've read. Then the opinions get spread through word of mouth, etc.

I know Microsoft tried to dent Sony with their add-on, but that's all it is. A $200 add-on that adds nothing beneficial to gamers and developers alike.

[Marriot VP]

DJ, DVD had no competition once it was finalized and agreed upon as a new format and you didn't need a 600-1000 dollar HDTV to watch your new format movies on.

If you think the adoption rate is going to be the same you need to get your head checked. Unfortunately next gen movies are very costly after the 95% rest of households have to purchase a HDTV and a HD player.

I'm not saying which will win, because Microsoft has many options, some underhanded, of beating BR. And vice versa. For example why couldn't Microsoft and toshiba start releasing 200 dollar HD-DVD stand alone players just for the heck of it. If they wanted to win the format war they could.

The winner hasn't been declared, sorry.

[bullet]

if you want to use the ps3 for a primary Blu-ray player...think twice. If you take a look at Playstation 3's website you'll find a bit of scary news.

Look at the "about" section, then question 10 "Can I still play my PS2 games, etc... on PS3?" In the fine print you will read "Blu-ray discs and other media may not operate properly on the PS3 system. This is primarily due to variations in the manufacturing process or encoding of the software"

So you're "cheap" answer to a Blu-ray player now might not even play your blu-ray movies."

[TheMART]

Clearly a couple of the wrong reasons here:

Greater manufacturing support
More movie titles
A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)
Greater storage capacity (making it more useful in the long run)

The same sort of things didn't save Betamax, UMD or Minidisc.

It's all about price-quality perceivement of the end-user.

HD-DVD cost half of BR standalone, the quality is better seen the reviews and it sells more.

So uh... Oh yeah, the amount of data, triple layer HD-DVD's carry 45 GB, BR has 50 GB, so that's close enough. And the PS3 has no real use. Those are gamers, they are not the large movie-buying fanatics. These people buy standalone players besides their HDTV's!

[lalaland]

"Greater manufacturing support
More movie titles
A great distribution vector (PlayStation 3)
Greater storage capacity (making it more useful in the long run)

The same sort of things didn't save Betamax, UMD or Minidisc."

-> Wrong. Actually VHS survived because of better software support (more movietitles) and more hardware manufacturers. The only thing Betamax had going for it was the quality. UMD is a proprietary format only used in the PSP and can't be compared. MiniDisc was a great success before the Internet made MP3's the new standard.

"HD-DVD cost half of BR standalone, the quality is better seen the reviews and it sells more."

-> Nope. Equally specced HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players cost about the same. The cheaper HD-DVD standalone players don't support 1080p or HDMI, to get that you'll have to invest more than $1000 for the Toshiba top-model. Regarding reviews, it was only for the first released titles. Since then, because of a shift in codecs for Blu-Ray, reviews has called the quality about equal. With duallayer 50GB discs around the corner, the Blu-Ray titles may just improve on quality again.

"Oh yeah, the amount of data, triple layer HD-DVD's carry 45 GB, BR has 50 GB, so that's close enough."

-> What about the Blu-Ray 6-layer discs? 200GB of data? Well... not for much use, when neither the PS3 nor the X360 HD-DVD player accepts anything but single and duallayer discs. The triple and more layers discs main purpose is for data-storage. This gives Blu-Ray an edge with 50GB for movies vs HD-DVD's 30GB, which should result in more content and/or better quality for Blu-Ray down the road.

"These people buy standalone players besides their HDTV's!"

-> Well, that would be silly, since the PS3 already delivers excellent picture quality as reported by numerous AV- and home cinema websites. Why buy a separate player for something you've already got?

A lot of PS2's are used for DVD playback today so it is not farfetched to believe the same will happen with the PS3. I know not many use their X360 for this because of the noise and sync problems, but the PS3 don't have those kind of problems.

[Funky Town_TX]

DJ and MART ROUND 500. You guys have the same beef everyday, every post. I mean BR and HD-DVD are bad for consumers. The PS3 is the only chance BR has to bet HD-DVD. If they don't mass produce dual layer BR then it will not matter, and HD-DVD will win.

[coxyefc]

this new dvd format war is ruining the next generation in my view, people are being forced with this blu-ray or going on and on about HD-DVD when the playstation is mainly a games console, the type of disc used should not come into the matter but it is and I am really tired of all this crap. Is anyone really ready to give up on DVD already? DVD format isnt even old yet for god sake.

[zonetrooper5]

Well the internet and holographic discs will beat HD-DVD and Blu-Ray but i would rather have HD-DVD win.

[LuminousAphid]

...that movies DO NOT play in 1080p EVER? Films (and almost all movies, besides DV) are shot at 24fps, which is actually under 1080i, so why does 1080p output matter? IT DOESN'T! You really do need to get your head checked.

[jtdonnelly]

so that I can not worry about the format war and watch my regular dvds in HD through upconverion?