AAA Developers Are Causing a Market Crash, Who Will be Left Standing?

Top tier publishers, developers, and marketing teams are all pushing the industry in a direction that is leading to it's demise. Forget Atari finally closing up shop and THQ biting the dust. Lets forget about games that were just poorly made like Medal of Honor: Warfighter which lead to the closing down of the studio who developed it. Reality is that the top developers and publishers of the moment are trying hard to take their products and make them have mass appeal. This, however, is why Indie Developers are starting to rise, because they still target a genre and create games specifically for the audience that enjoys it. For the ones with broader appeal, it's a new franchise rather than reinventing an old one into something it's never been.

[miyamoto]

its a good thing Naughty Dog prioritizes game play first then the details of graphics

[givemeshelter]

As costs rise for upcoming big title games, only studios with big budgets will survive. Look what has happened with many game studios this generation? How many of those went chapter 11 because of rising costs?
It's really discouraging for small independent studios to try and compete so they go the route of mobile gaming and handheld gaming and the indie circuit.
When a AAA game can cost upwards or more then 20+ million, only the "big boys" can make those type of titles...and even then if the game does not sell it's allocated lot to make a profit or break even, said studio goes under. THQ and a few others come to mind...
The game market has SHIFTED

[EffectO]

Games that sell like 10 million + smartphone games

That is the future.

[Donnieboi]

True. Sadly.

[danny818]

I swear if next gen games are $70 -.- i will buy less games, prolly not buy them on their launch window an wait for a price drop

[TheEnigma313]

Same here. I don't buy day one anymore. I wait until I can afford it.

[rainslacker]

We're unlikely to see a massive crash like we had in the Atari generation. Gaming has just gotten too big and varied.

Some of it depends on how you define a crash, however. What the author of the article seems to be referring to is that the big AAA game market will implode on itself, thus giving us fewer games of that caliber. Since that is a possibility, albeit small, what givemeshelter says above is accurate, because it is only those with a massive operating budget that will be able to continue to make AAA games. Since there will be less competition for AAA games, they can generate more revenue, and possibly restrict their games even more than they already are.

Gamers aren't likely to lose interest in games, which is one reason why the first crash happened, so it will continue to go on in it's own way. The market would continue and adapt, with a shift in the future of gaming.

I also don't believe that Nintendo would be saved in the authors scenario. They aren't likely to go under, but they would be affected by an industry wide crash just as much as the other players, big and small. If there is less money being spent on games, then Nintendo would have less incentive to expand with it's current IP's, or new future IP(even less likely), and it would just be a bad time all around for gamers in general.

[3-4-5]

Indie & Mid-level semi-indie dev's.

Anybody who listens to the fans, will still be around.

Anybody who actually admits there mistake and tries to correct them...like for EX: Nintendo.......those companies will still be around.

XSEED, Atlus , NIS, AKSYS......they will exist. Not that they are all dev's but I think you understand.

Give the people quality, options, creativity, freedom and let them have their own unique experience.

^ Not difficult to figure out, but most Dev's are full of people who think they know more than they do, so the overlook the simple things.

It's the small simple things that are key to victory.

In this case Victory = Survival

[00001]

exactly all those big companies using focus groups to go after more gamers rather than just asking gamers what they want will end up with failures on their hands. not too mention the install base for most of the consoles this generation has almost reached saturation and many hardcore and casual gamers are growing tired with dragged out franchises that continue to release as stagnant updates.

[00001]

eh, being able to make a AAA means nothing if no one shows up to buy your AAA game. and i think interest will wane in long running franchises that do little to push the i'p forward. i know im not throwing my money at a lot of EA's and Activision's AAA games as of late. i simply do not find much of what theyre offering as interesting to my gaming preference and i play almost every genre. i think the market will even itself out. sure companies can throw money at making the games as big as possible or dump cash in marketing but at the end of the day, either gamers will buy the game or not. you don't have to have a triple A budget to make a great game people want to play.

[cleft5]

This harsh reality is why I think that the WiiU is going to do well as time progresses. Eventually smaller developers are going to realize the astronomical cost to compete on the ps4 and 720 platform is not worth the initial risk unless they have enough financial capital to survive a major lost.

Ps4/720 development looks like it is going to be enough to bankrupt many smaller companies if their games don't sell millions of units. The reality is only the biggest of publishers will be able to sustain that risk and even they want venture beyond safe bets. Meaning more fps games that follow in the footsteps of CoD.

Being innovative and taking risk maybe want we as gamers want to see, but smaller gaming companies would be foolish to risk their entire company on a game that "might" be the next big thing. If they succeed wonderful, but the reality is that too many will fail and only a very few will succeed.

This means that smaller companies will need a place where they can make the games that they want and create enough capital for their companies to make games that will eventually be on the ps4/720 and high-end PCs. It is going to take developers time to come to this realization, but after enough companies have failed or simply don't make a large return on their investment then eventually they will come to see the opportunities Nintendo and the WiiU represents.

The smarter companies see this right now and they are investing in games with Nintendo now. Nintendo foots part of the bill and pays for promotions and they are able to create a great game that is unique and doesn't have to sell millions of units to break even. Just look at Platinum Games and now Atlus with Shin Megami x Fire Emblem. The WiiU represents a great opportunity, but we want see it until later in the console's lifespan. So while there is no rush to buy a WiiU, we will see a lot of great games on it in a year or two.

[tigertron]

EA needs to realise that by focusing on the mass market in order to gain more sales, they are in fact jeopardising their sales, because they alienate the very fans that made their franchises successful in the first place.

That doesn't just apply to EA, look at the crap Capcom have pulled with Resident Evil. They consider RE6 a failure because it missed targets. Well, it may have made more sales if they hadn't of turned it into a Michael Bay action game, where instead of fighting Tyrants, you fight apache helicopters and tanks.

I pray next-gen these publishers wake up and realise what they've done to their famous franchises and sort themselves out.

[00]

No it's publisher going for that stupid "wider audience" believing everyone plays the same type of game, and blowing all there money on marketing, Doritos, and mountain dew.

[00001]

haha amen brother, that mythical "wider audience" isn't on gaming sites, forums, or even watching gaming events like E3 or GDC. their desired wider audience is out doing other stuff that cathces their three second attention span, wehter its watching movies, tv, or actually going outside. but that wider audience occasionally buys into the bloated marketing or happens to see something they like and add an abnormal boost in sales tricking publishers into think lighting can strike twice. well, EA just learned the hard way with Medal of Honor Warfighter, that just because a wider audience likes Call of Duty, doesn't mean they'll like your Medal of Honor. haha. and now because of that, the developer wasted time on an otherwise forgotten two games, EA wasted money advertising and now both developer and publisher are retiring the franchise for now, which means probably for quite some time.

[Hicken]

Exactly this. It's that chase for casual cash that's causing- or will cause- a market crash. It's a bubble that MUST burst, as it wasn't sustainable in the first place.

Hopefully- and it may be asking a bit much- the publishers and developers won't try something so stupid again, as they'll realize the temporary gains aren't worth it.

[Conzul]

Good article.

Games, if ever, will only get mass appeal by being GOOD, and having their lovers get their friends into it.

Starting out with the mentality of "appealing" to masses is the way to failure - in the gaming world at least. Unless big companies catch on to this simple fact, indies will rise and big studios will fall.

[RTheRebel]

this market is fast and steadly headed toward a crash and it will be too late to avoid the iceberg but, hey fanboys want hyper realistic graphics half these devolopers can barely coupe with the costs
sad when people want graphics > over gameplay

[danthebios]

thinks there should be an article xbox360 wheres our AAA?!!