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Pachter: 100% digital 10 years away

Industry Analyst spoke with Examiner.com yesterday and provided his thoughts on digital gaming and when he believes the industry will go completely digital.

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-Mika-2780d ago

Finally Pachter is right about something. I actually believe this and I think physical copies will be a thing of the past.

RuleNumber52780d ago

Agreed, but don't you think you'll miss gaming boxes a little bit? Won't you miss the nostalgia of physically having and holding the game? I feel like there's a unique connection there and that may be lost once it happens. But if it doesn't happen for 10 years, then I'm sure my opinion will be different by then.

NeoBasch2780d ago (Edited 2780d ago )

Everyone thinks this but forgets the trend. Each generation in film and game, file sizes have increased tremendously. DVD's were lucky to reach 9 gigs. Now, we have Blu-Rays that range from 25-50 gigs. Uncharted 2 alone is around 23 GB's on the PSN. Even if you had the best model (360 GB's) that would take a large amount of space.

Yes, you could technically buy a new hard drive. Hold on, let's look on Amazon real quick. PS3's take 2.5" internal hard drives (and while yes, you can use an external, that'd be a pain). The largest drive you could get is 1 TB (generally $100). For those that want to take advantage of Sony's video store or various other media hub features will need to leave at least anywhere from 25-50% for video/music/picture storage. 500 GB's will go fast depending on the games you get.

Size is still a luxury. Even externals cost an arm and a leg for just 4 TB's. I'm not even sure there is a 5 TB drive on the market yet. While this may seem like a lot now, wait until games start running natively in 1080p and increasingly optimize their engines for better performance and mapping. If you want quality 7.1 surround sound with your games as well (or God willing 22.1), that'll be an additional couple gigs, depending if you have multiple language tracks.

It's not just games though. Movies will begin displaying in 2160p and 4320p. The latter is a 16x increase if I remember right. What does that say about the existing Blu-Ray format? Why do you think technicians have been investing in research as to the next format standard? The BDA has been trying to accommodate with larger discs, but they can only do so much with their laser technology. That is why we are researching other future standards like HVD (Holographic Video Discs). And before any of you jump to any conclusions, it is not truly holographic. It is reference to the optics and visual imaging of the surface layer of the disc.

I think the digital entertainment will be a big part of a future, and for most things it will be adequate, but I don't believe we'll be fully digital by 2015 (sorry, Gabe) maybe in a decade and that'd only be if the price for sizes come down, speeds go up tremendously, and networking companies are more lenient when it comes to higher bandwidths without demanding our souls in exchange. Then maybe... and that's a far stretch. Do you realize how hard it was just to get America to upgrade from analog?

I laugh at your face if you think this is going to be easy.

_-EDMIX-_2780d ago

sir. Bubbles for your knowledge. I've been telling people the very same thing for years.

Gaming media and film media formats grow faster then the actual bandwidth that provides us with them.

LA Noire, Max Payne 3, MGS4, pretty much every PS3 exclusive or Sony published game, were about 25GB, 35GB, 40GB, 50GB etc. Now this is JUST this gen.

I opted to not download Max Payne 3, JUST because of 2 things. I didn't want to go over my bandwidth cap (with MP3, it was happening) and i wanted to play it right then as suppose to just waiting until it was done downloading.

This is a prime example of what i mean. I have the fastest service in my area (my sister and i split it) and its still something i just don't take too lightly. I'm not just going to start downloading 40GB or 50GB games, now this is just this gen, what about next gen? If history has taught us anything, its that games get bigger each gen, NOT smaller. Thus games next gen will be around 100GBs launch day, and 500GB even near the ending of the gen. Now its not even so crazy based on what other gens have done (12X, 7X etc the space used) i'm just talking about 2X or 5X the space used this gen.

Mind you i state this without even touching on what retail makes for gaming.

_-EDMIX-_2780d ago

Because of how much money retail makes Gaming it will never happen. Not a lot of people have internet and let alone the fastest.

Gaming moves too fast for bandwidth. By the time this is everywhere, games could be anywhere from 500gb to 800gb or 1TB.

Only reason why i say this, is again games are already 50gb and 40gb this gen on PS3, mind you they aren't even in 1080p or run at a solid 60fps. So next gen, clearly games will look better (have more polygons) thus take up more space etc. So next gen i see 100gb being normal and then games going from 200-500gb. Only because we have to understand, in order to have games compete in terms of quality, i would mean them porgresselvy getting bigger in terms of space taken up.

ie FFVII on PS1 compared to what was scrapped for N64. Once the space is there, a lot of ips can start making the games they always planned to.

So next gen would be around 100-300gb and after that really the sky's the limit. It may sound crazy now, but take a look back when PS1 was out, it went from CD 600-800mb per disk to DVD to having 5.8gb per disk thats close to 6 times the size, and from that to Bluray, from 5.8gb or 6.8gb to about 25-50gbs more then 7 times the size, from PS1 to N64, it was OVER 12 TIMES the size (the real reason they beat the N64, FFVII could had NEVER been made on the N64 in its current state) I love the N64, but clearly the PS1's format was the real nail in that coffin. Format is tech, not matter how badly some may try to down play it. A games systems hardware really means nothing if it doesn't even have a format big enough to actually make it happen. "you got VR....cool story bro....can i play GTA on it in HD?" lol.

So the numbers i was guessing are actually in terms of history incorrect and not likely, its actually likely to be more then what i said. But bandwidth just won't get there fast enough to really do anything about it, cloud gaming and Digital Download will just forever remain an option.

http://www.videogameconsole...

Anyone believing in such garbage should take a look at some gaming history to see how gaming media has advanced and how it will in the future.

take a look at the years of when those systems released and see how fast and how large games got between then. ie the PS1 having the largest growth and impact to gaming that the world has ever seen. almost 100X the space of SNES (mind you thats like PS4 having a format that is 5TB at launch and a game using 3 disk at launch), its still by far the largest leap to ever grace gaming and it was truly needed, FFVII launched with 3 disk...remember that people.

RuleNumber52780d ago (Edited 2780d ago )

It will be much more convenient though once it's all digital. It will save on gas $ haha.

MultiConsoleGamer2780d ago

Pachter says a lot of things. Sometimes he's right. But not usually...

2780d ago Replies(2)
ChunkyLover532780d ago

I kind of doubt its that close. They said digital music would kill physical, in fact physical music was supposed to be dead by now.

I think bandwidth caps and speed issues will cause this not to be the case. Lets not forget that some people choose not to even get internet. I know some gamer's who just game for fun and don't have an internet connection at all. Why would these console makers limit their potential customers?

Ducky2780d ago

... because chances are those people will have internet 10 years from now.

ChunkyLover532780d ago

I'm just saying I've heard all of this stuff before, if it goes all digital, I'm out for sure. I don't feel like you actually own content when its digital only. There are different licenses and things like that involved, they can expire and it also seems like they are going for a always connected style of console and games, which I definitely am not interested in.

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