390°

The Japan Preview: 6-22 Edition (Snake-bit-Snake)

VGChartz writes: "After debuting as the fastest selling PS3 game in Japan, Metal Gear Solid 4 had an enormous drop in sales according to the preliminary data. Because of the drop, Metal Gear Solid 4 was the third best selling game of the week.

- Metal Gear Solid 4 had the biggest week one to week two percentage drop in the preliminary data since these articles have been posted, a time frame of over a year.
-The game had a mammoth drop from last week, selling less than a tenth of its debut figures in the preliminary data. There is a chance the game simply sold out at the store, which could put it higher than the preliminary data has it, but usually there are indications of sold out status. Games that people buy with a title like Metal Gear Solid 4 tend to see sales perk up as people wait for the marquee title in the case of a sell out. That was not the case this week.
-With Metal Gear Solid 4 achieving a huge attach rate in week one on the relatively small PS3 base it was not surprising that the title dropped. What was surprising is that according to the preliminary data, it sold fewer than 40,000 units.
- PSP and Wii sold the most software in the preliminary top twenty.

Hardware Predicted Totals:

PSP: 55,000 to 70,000 unit range
Wii: 40,000 to 50,000 unit range
DSL: 30,000 to 40,000 unit range
PS3: 25,000 to 45,000 unit range
PS2: 5,000 to 10,000 unit range
360: 1,200 to 2,200 unit range
Cyrus365 - contributor
Published: 540 days 11 hours ago | Rumors | PlayStation 3 | Xbox 360 | Wii | Sony PSP | Nintendo DS | PlayStation 2
 
 

Showing: 1 - 40 of 40 Comments
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whateva - 540 days 13 hours ago
1 - I see a 200 post thread coming!
fanboy fight in 3 2 1 action!
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LordXenu - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.1 - thats unlikely
since the data is coming from vgchartz a non reliable source based on guesstimates. There is no way MGS4 would sell just 40k for second week

story reported as fake
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.2 -
Lord, I get this story approved whether you like it or not. Don't like it, don't read it.
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LordXenu - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.3 - @cyrus
dont post it . thats more like it. no one likes vgchartz whether xbox fanboys or ps3 fanboys cause all those numbers are fake.

dont post vg numbers

edit

oh i see .u have been posting vg numbers here. try doing that in any other forums .i guess thats impossible cause vg is banned in almost all forums

http://www.n4g.com/up/7898/...

@vgcharts is not accepted by ANYONE. pachter never said anything about vg and he was himself wrong on numbers on most occasions. Vg is banned in all gaming forums all over the world.

It is operated by an english kid and the numbers are just guesstimates. I am new to the website but i complained to lot of senior members and mods already. vg is NO NO here just like elsewhere
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.4 -
So what VGchartz is also accept by wallstreet peeps, and patcher himself used it in his past report.

http://www.n4g.com/NewsPend...
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sonarus - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.5 -
WOW. Thats an insane drop
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LordXenu - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.6 - vg is banned in all forums
wallstreet journal has no idea aboutr video gaming

vg is banned

at GAF , ITALIA FORUMS, GERMAN FORUMS , PSU, GAMETRAILERS forum, IGN forums,Gamespot forums just about any gaming forum and website out there

try posting vg numbers at GAF

@guy above
do u honestly believe those numbers?
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.7 -
The better question is, why do you come back as 100 different Alias on here? Don't you get tired?

Wallstreet might not know anything about video games, but they have industry experts, and that's who they are quoting, just like patcher...he's allowed, and he posts on NeoGaf and such, and his #'s are hardly every right.

Sim Exchange #'s aren't "accurate" either...they are accepted.
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LordXenu - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.8 - @cyrus
arent u even ashamed that u are posting these numbers and we wont even know that you are working for vgchartz.

can u show me one instance where vg numbers were proven right? they were never correct on any occasion.

all developers post at GAF. however vg is banned all over the web

vg is banned in major italian forum too
http://www.forumeye.it/invi...

@cyrus
i am new to n4g. However posting or bootlicking a banned website is something of a great shame.

simexchange is based on numbers from user predictions not like numbers made from the asssses of a 26 year old british kid. I am sure u are one of the mods at vg. i looked at your comments history and all u posted were these vg numbers

@contributors these are vg numbers not famitsu's . so please see them before approving
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 12 hours ago
1.9 -
Ashamed? lol nope, aren't you coming back every week as someomne new? VGchartz has been "right" on many occasions, lately, nope they've been off, has patcher been correct? yes, but lately? nope.

Has sim exchange # been right ever? Yes, latelY? Nope...what's common thing here? They are number, there not 100%... Even NPD numbers aren't 100% accurate representation of the market.
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sunnygrg - 540 days 9 hours ago
1.10 -
Looking as to how the previous installments fared in Japan, it comes as no big surprise. Still, first week sales (according to Vgchartz, yes) were huge, and it should reach 1M sales in the Japan region in its lifetime.
1.11 LaChance | 540 days 8 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
1.12 LaChance | 540 days 7 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
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Silogon - 540 days 12 hours ago
2 -
Vg charts is not a viable form of tracking, Sorry. Case and point.

Sigma has sold, according to Sim and Tvg 800,000 + units since launch. VG charts has it at 300,000.

Warhawk has 700,000 + members on the leader boards. VG charts has the game at 400,000 units sold.

those are just two examples. If you want legitmency go to Tvg and or Sim exchange. These numbers they give are never right. Ever. Ps3 is at 14.5 million units on Sim and TVG, vg charts has them at 13 million still.

VG charts does this I've come to the conclusion of. They track a certain product only so long and then leave it as it is. Check the numbers of ps2 and xbox games. You mean to tell me that R&C hasn't sold anymore copies since 2003? Please. Get real.

I rest my case.
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Alexander Roy - 540 days 8 hours ago
2.1 -
Wasn't there a video on YouTube a while ago, which showed that their sales estimates are based on an algorithm based on the factor time and some other crazy stupid stuff? Besides, I remember the video talking about the owner of the site being a kid or something.
So, even if I don't remember correctly, take thei numbers with a big grain of salt, be it about MGS4 of NGII or any other game for that matter.
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scissor_runner - 540 days ago
2.2 - about warhawk?
Can you not make multiple accounts? If you can't then thats not a very good online game now is it?
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Sonics020 - 540 days 12 hours ago
3 -
Well you may think these numbers are awful but this happens to almost all games in Japan they do well one week and they drop the next by a huge amount more so then in other regions. USA should see a smaller drop and Europe may see even a smaller drop because the game as yet to be released in Spain. You may see PS3 outsell the 360 by another 100,000 units and mgs4 should sell another 400,000 copies.
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LordXenu - 540 days 12 hours ago
3.1 - i know all games drop dramatically the second week in Japan
but why post these fake numbers anyway. vg is not based off concrete data but just guesstimates .
i agree but i think mgs4 would be around 600-700k for the week since it was launched in spain on the 17th and typically european and us sales dont drop much for the second week
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PoSTedUP - 540 days 12 hours ago
4 -
its whatever, ill wait for NPD, no need to get excited. if true, they could of sold out and are waiting for another shipment. or... w/e
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 12 hours ago
4.1 -
Ummm what's NPD # going to prove about Japanese numbers? NPD doesn't report on anything but US numbers.
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PoSTedUP - 540 days ago
4.2 -
ohh my bad.....didnt know that.
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v1c1ous - 540 days 11 hours ago
5 - again, for the 40th time
why are we STILL using vgcharts when they are proven wrong (since they have to fix their data everytime npd+media create numbers come out) even by their own selves every....single....week.

they are a speculation website at best.
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cyclindk - 540 days 11 hours ago
6 -
Uhhh...the game has sold enormously therefore there are an enormous number of people that don't now need to buy the game...right? Maybe not right, but I'm just a simpleton; don't know any better.
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Isaac - 540 days 10 hours ago
7 - Is this news or an estimate?
Because if it's an estimate, I'll wait for the real numbers, since VGChartz has been overestimating 360 and Wii demand and underestimating PS3 demand for a long time.
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ErcsYou - 540 days 10 hours ago
8 -
VG Charts.... Sometimes you love'm, Sometimes you hate'm ...
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v1c1ous - 540 days 10 hours ago
8.1 - here's a fun game:
right now the outlook is negative on using vgcharts.

you can probably guess why.

for more fun, try to see what's special about vgcharts topics when general consensus is positive and its widely accepted.

you're going to notice a funny correlation.

protip: a certain console's position that week always determines whether people praise vgcharts, or disdain it. me? i always disdain it.
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ErcsYou - 540 days 10 hours ago
8.2 -
It is fun.... just like websites be called bias and hated for weeks and then loved and praised the next.. I wonder what the magic made up numbers will look like next week....
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AclayPS3 - 540 days 10 hours ago
9 -
The PS3 install base in Japan is a little over 2 million, and MGS4 sold almost half a million units in the first week in Japan alone, so it's obvious that the majority of the people waiting for MGS4 in Japan that currently have PS3's already have it.

Basically 1/4 of the people in Japan that have PS3's have MGS4 and that's a VERY high attach rate. As PS3 sales continue to increase in Japan, I'm sure that MGS4 will sell a million units in Japan or more, but you've just got to give the PS3's install base in Japan to grow even more, but honestly MGS4 has sold extremely well in Japan to just have a 2 million install base.

I expect that MGS4 will sell around 5 Million Units worldwide in all, but that's just my guess. I would really like to see MGS4 be the top selling MGS game of all time and surpass MGS2's sale numbers.... with MGS4 being the biggest game out on the PS3 right now, I don't see why it can't achieve that feat in the long run.
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Cyrus365 - 540 days 9 hours ago
9.1 -
Agreed, It sold to roughly 25% of the userbase, and if it sells 1 million by the end of the year, that's likely will be 30-40% of the user base.
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Mutley416 - 540 days 9 hours ago
10 -
It`s hard to speculate @ what happens in Japan/Asia... Maybe a Gang has pirated the game and is selling them on the black market, causing a drop, Maybe thier were`nt enough games...Would`nt be the first time They have shorted them selfs to supply the rest of the world, Who Knows? Maybe a new Tamagotechi/ Pokemon Craze has struck. Honest News out of Asia...hmmm not if they can help it...lol
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wiizy - 540 days 5 hours ago
11 - lol
The only real next gen system the wii is on top to stay poor sony fanboys your biggest game of the year is nt helping much cry uncle already
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sleepyk - 540 days 2 hours ago
11.1 - nice try
MGS4 already sold 500k and there are only 2 next gen systems and it's definitely not the Wii. The game help hardware sales boost and all you doing is cry because your pathetic wii got its ass handed over.
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Darkiewonder - 540 days 1 hour ago
11.2 - -
LOL. Putting Wii and Next Gen together in the same sentence? LMFAO! Stop it.
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pumpkinpunker - 540 days ago
12 - too funny
people were singing the praises of vgchartz left and right when it was good news for MGS4/PS3 sales last week. Now, it's bad news and the Sony defense force are all back to their anti-vgchartz rhetoric.
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Ashta - 539 days 23 hours ago
12.1 -
1)If you look at the attach rate for the game it isn't really "bad" news and who cares if VGchartz is as accurate as NPD or Sim Exchange? The only real purpose of that site is to give as accurate as data as they can based on algorithms and estimates. They're not as in the know as NPD and Sim Exchange so a lot of the site bashing needs to end regardless of bias or not.

2) It isn't "bad" news. Almost a quarter of the userbase in Japan purchased MGS4 in the first week and considering that not a single MGS (I think!) game has sold over 1 million in Japan within their first year, let alone their lifetime maybe, then you could say that MGS4 had a pretty stellar opening overall.

I pretty much expected the drop considering how much of the overall user base in Japan purchased the game in the first week. That IS generally when the most fans are going to buy the game so a massive drop was expected. Albeit the numbers might be estimated a bit low and considering this is only preliminary data and not the official data you cant really form your entire opinion just yet.

The way I looked at it with the 2 million userbase in Japan and a 1/4 of them buying MGS4 on the first week in comparison to a 15.7 million userbase buying less than that for MGS3 when it was released in its first week I would call it a pretty good success all around.

Even with the drop in software sales the PS3 hardware sales still managed to stay up above the 20k mark which is far better than the 9k that it was selling two weeks ago.

I expect better legs in the American and European markets which is what MGS4 is generally geared towards.
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scissor_runner - 539 days 23 hours ago
13 - WOW no one read this huh?
The guy broke it down in estimates. Lots of people try saying what will happen but never put up numbers. If you read it it make prefect sense. If the PS3 numbers do not fall like how THIS ESTIMATE predicts then this means that either the PS3 has finally proved it self to the japan gaming community or either we have a lot more MGS fans popping up. Who ever posted it thanks because it was a good read and makes sense but it doesn't need to be bashed because he shows why this may happen. It is not some fan boy rant proclaiming this to be PS3 year. They are one of the main reason why we can chart our console against past preformers and trends. The guys over at VGcharts are pretty good even for fan boys use LOL. I think lots of people expect this to happen but if it doesn't then good for SONY. I may not like MGS but they are not putting down the quality of your game. Just it's selling power or ability to make new fans. If it does fall this can not be good for SONY in japan and square would have to be pretty arrogant to think that FF13 is enough to make this system a hit at this point. This does not mean it's not a good system because clearly it has fans yet there are many factors that will keep it from being a hit. This may be good for SONY fans in the end because it shows they may have made an error in the pricing which means PRICE DROP TIME!
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Ashta - 539 days 23 hours ago
13.1 -
Agreed, if the hardware sales end up regulating quicker than they should (meaning they drop back down to pre-MGS4 levels in just a few weeks) then the hardware price might be inhibiting the sales of software and hardware both.

A price drop might just be in order around Fall or Winter to rake in some heavy sells for the Holidays.
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scissor_runner - 539 days 15 hours ago
13.2 - Another funny thing is.
This game came to America in a time where walmart was giving people $100 off and the game came with the best version of the PS3 the one if BC and a large Harddrive. SONY owed that to kojima I feel. I wonder if they will try to do this more? An artificial sale with a coupon is better than a standard price drop for sony in the end.

I wish them luck though the better this thing sales the more guts some people are going to have to reach even higher next gen. If they fail then certain companies will do that any way because thats just how they are.
14 poopface1 | 539 days 20 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
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sparta76 - 539 days 17 hours ago
15 -
metal gear sold out in many stores. keep taht in mind
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