Michael Pachter: Nintendo Switch won’t be as successful as Wii

According to the well-known analyst, Michel Patcher, the new console of the house of Kyoto will not be able to replicate the success of Wii.

[Ashunderfire86]

he will eat his words, especially Switch already started with a flagship title Zelda new ip Arms, Splatoon 2, Mario, Metroid Prime 4, and even more like Pokemon too. The Switch will crush the Wii.

[freshslicepizza]

I doubt it will crush it in hardware sales, probably in software though. Pachter just hedges odds, that's all.

[Erik7357]

I think with mainline pokemon games on it, something wii didn't have, it will drive it's sales tremendously though the years

There's also no competition for it , Wii had competition with ps3 and 360 what competes with switch, the 5 year old Vita?

Also because of the focus on indie gaming industry, it makes 3rd party a lot better scenario than it was for Wii.

I'm sure Nintendo is very happy with the focus on indies from ps4/Xbox, good majority of them could be ported and running on Switch easily and we are seeing the Switch play a lot of superior versions of the same games ps4/Xbox have.

Games like Stardew valley, rocket league, and Minecraft feel so much better on Switch because of added portability and countless other indie hits.

It's also the only console to ship with two controllers making it the Star of couch coop gaming sense you don't have to go out of tour way to get expensive 2nd controller

That's just my 2 cents on why I think it will same just as much as Wii

[indysurfn]

Patcher said it will not be as successful as Wii. Okay guys its official it WILL be more successful then Wii.

Secret sauce Multiply what Patcher says to to public by -1 and you will be 99% successful (trading).

[Thatguy-310]

Wii was successful because of the casual demographic. All the games you mentioned cater to a lot of the people that already have a switch. The Nintendo switch isn't touching the casual demographic that the wii had for its time. That being said patcher won't eat his words since he's basically right.

[Ashunderfire86]

Remember this conversation when the Switch become the best selling console every month to a year. Eventually surpassing Wii lifetime sells. Just wait for Mario Coming in the fall, and Nintendo will increase production in more Switches.

[Thatguy-310]

@ashunderfire86
You're delusional lol Mario can only do so much. The switch won't have cod, battlefront 2, destiny 2 or any of the huge multiplayer games. Let's see how well it does without the casual market and the huge third party support.

[Erik7357]

Seeing how the industry reacted to Zelda, it's not even close to how the industry will react to Pokemon, Mario, and even Metroid ..

[bluefox755]

No he won't, the Wii did something that Nintendo is not doing this gen, and will probably never do again, it got grandmas and soccer moms to play it, i.e. non-gamers. it became a novelty outside of the gaming world. That market has long since moved onto smart phones, and will not be coming back to a Nintendo console, or any console for that matter.

[jmc8888]

Well there was a time when handheld+console for Nintendo moved ~250 million units.

Combined not even 100 million is not a good thing.

Even Wii U +3ds hit 85 million.

[mcstorm]

That's what's interesting about the switch as it is Nintendo's home and portable console going forward and there will be alot of people wanting it in both sets of gamers. I see more people in Japan using it as a portable and people in Europe and usa using it as a home console so sales for the switch could he interesting. I love the console but eveyone has different tastes I think one thing that is looking like it won't do and that is flop.

[mzupeman]

Erm... the Wii sold something like 100 million consoles. I don't even think the PS4 sold that many yet. The PS2 sold about 150 million. I doubt the Switch is going to be as popular as either.

Is the Switch going to do well? Absolutely. It's going to crush the Wii-U by a fairly wide margin, I would guess. But claiming it's going to top the original Wii is just bananas.It sold because of its gimmick and because it was only $200. The software attach rate, on the other hand...

[Kaze88]

Errrr all they had in the launch was Zelda. Ofc Mario, Metroid, Pokemon will drive sales when they eventually come, but the third party is already giving up on the switch. Also there is no graze or excitement or anything like that for the switch that was for the Wii and likely there wont be. Its not dead in the water, but its going to have a hard time for the first year at least. If Nintendo is really pouring all their efforts for the switch and the DS community/casuals start shifting to switch...then I could see it maybe to surpass the wii in its lifecycle.

[Sam Fisher]

Water is wet. Man if this guy made it into the stock market anyone can, this man is so obvious at what he says

[zivtheawesome]

i think this is obvious. it'll probably do 50~60 mil but not wii levels.

[Littil_Devil]

I wouldn't hold my breath, because the Switch is selling really well.

[Brash]

100 million would have been asking too much before maybe. Here's the thing, you got a console that can be either handheld or play at home - appeal. In that regard, it's also not directly competing with Xbox One or PS4. Sony confirmed that people will buy the Nintendo Switch even if they own another console. Furthermore, Nintendo IPs are IMMENSELY desirable and they are embarrassing Microsoft by revealing more AAA exclusives in their first freaken year of launch. And there's more to come - Metroid 4, the inevitable Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and Xenoblade mainline games - appeal. It lacks power - you're not buying it for power. If you want power, you have a PC.

[FunAndGun]

The Switch has a lot of appeal, but the casual crowd that boosted the Wii to great heights will not be participating this time around.

The Wii cracked the code like fidget spinners and crazy bands, people bought Wii's that never owned systems before. I just don't see Switch becoming a "must have" among the regular population like Wii did. I mean, you had moms, grandmas, and grandpas playing Wii...but it wasn't because of certain games, 3rd party support, or even Mario.

[himdeel]

I agree, the casual crowd jumped on the Wii, then got burned on the Wii U, the casual base has retracted even further from Nintendo and the Switch. Couple with difficulty getting the system, casuals don't search for hard to find systems. I want a Switch but not bothering until I can go to my local store and easily pick one up off the shelf.

[MrSec84]

Metroid, Xenoblade and Fire Emblem are appealing to a niche audience, even Kirby and Yoshi are pretty small when compared to the ones the global audience knows about from Nintendo. Those IPs have limited pull.

It'll be Mario, Pokemon (especially this), Splatoon, Smash and Mario Kart that will do most of the heavy lifting sales wise, even Zelda doesn't push systems as well as these IPs seem to.

From Nintendo's perspective they want a better selling system than Wii U, which is all but guaranteed at this point, hell Switch will most likely sell 14 million units in it's first 12 months, if they can get the stock on shelves, but if not Switch will definitely move past Wii U numbers by Summer next year.
Seems a given at this point.

Sales are already looking to be close to 5 million if VG Chartz are right, before Splatoon or Super Mario release, SM+R:KB looks like it's going to move some units too.

Personally I think 70 million units in 5 years isn't unrealistic for Switch to achieve.

[InKnight7s]

Wii for Nintendo is like Ps2 for Sony, Xbox 360 for MS. These things of achievments need so hard work and alot of support and cheap price and right time to hit it. Shortage and 100$ more expensives than tag price almost everywhere wont do it. Mario Odd and Pekomon DX will push it but wont be the long term push.

[nevin1]

"Wii for Nintendo is like Ps2 for Sony, "

Talk about insulting the PS2.

[InKnight7s]

I meant Wii is Legend of Nintendo. You now Ps2 is the true Legend of all gamers and home consoles.

[MegamanXXX]

Don't know if it will crush the Wii but it will definitely crush the Wii u and Xbox one

[Razzer]

Switch doesn't have Wii Sports which was the major system seller for Wii. The hybrid form factor will appeal to a large crowd, but I doubt it will reach 100 million.

[MrSec84]

If VG Chartz are close to correct then Switch could be close to 5 million units sold right now, their most up to date metric puts Switch at 4.114 Million sold by May 27th, given that by the end of March it had officially sold 2.74 Million units, that leaves 1.374 million units across April and May, or 687K per month.

The first 5 months post launch month will obviously drop off to a baseline, then October, November and December will pick up.
Demand up to the end of 2017 calendar year is likely there for more than 10 million units, looking at launch day through to the end of 2017, with Pokemon, Metroid, Kirby, Yoshi, etc potentially landing in 2018, possible support from 3DS devs and a potential price cut in the Fall then sales could increase by 50%.

If that happens Switch would be at 25 Million sold by the end of 2018, I think a cut to $249/£199 will be needed by September 2018 to sustain momentum and bring 3DS owners that play Pokemon over in droves.
If Switch could maintain 15 million a year then Switch could hit 70 Million units in 5 years, assuming Nintendo doesn't have some Wii Sports type game that drives system sales harder or a ridiculous price cut doesn't push sales to 20 million per year.

15 million a year may be optimistic, but sales are going great with the current price high and a relatively small lineup of good to great games, exclusives are still pretty thin on the ground until SM+R:KB lands next month and Mario will be the big System Seller of the year.

[bahabeast]

No it won't but the switch Will be successful. The Wii became such a success because it was aimed directly for kids. 2017 all wiis are dusty A/F

[superchiller]

The Switch is selling ok now (thanks mostly to Nintendo's artificial shortages), but as the year progresses and very few games come out for it, people will realize that there is very little to play on it. I'm already hearing about early adopters wanting to sell their Switches when the reality of a huge lack of games sinks in.

If you're not a big fan of Nintendo's own first party games, there is no reason to buy a Switch, and won't be for a very long time (if ever).

[MrSega]

I think Switch will go only a few further than N64.

[babadivad]

Duh.

[MetroidFREAK21]

People still listen to this guy?

[dubal-e]

wait, he changed his mind now?

[Kallisti]

Who keeps approving these Patcher articles? It's time to stop.

[Bjorn-c-blocker]

The thing that people forget to factor in with all this console talk is that what is actually cool with 12 year olds matters more than what gamers like. Most 12 year olds want the switch at the moment. It used to be the ps4 but that is not cool anymore.

[nitus10]

Let's put it this way would you (as the parent) purchase a Switch for your under teen children?

Yes there are parents with more money than sense but the majority of parents may consider one Switch for the houshold but two or more starts to get expensive so they would be better off purchasing a DS since it is so much more robust and portable.

[corroios]

More then 100 millions consoles. Well if they drop to 199 and get back all the grand parets that bought the wii, all the casuals,then maybe

[TheOttomatic91]

We'll see Pac We'll see.

[Trekster_Gamer]

In other news the sun will rise tomorrow...

[PCgamer98]

I doubt even the ps4 could be as succesful as the wii.

[About30Ninjas]

I have to disagree the Wii was only successful the 1st 4yrs is was out and everyone look at the Wii as a gimmick but when it to the Switch everyone look at it as a new beginning for Nintendo a home console handheld hybrid that's a gamer dream come true

[Elda]

The Switch will sell well but not like the Wii due to the Wii at the time swayed the casuals because of the interactive gimmick including the casual games.The Switch is basically a handheld that will not sway a bunch of casuals.

[tontontam0]

But it will be as successful as the 3ds.

[no_ripley]

Random user on the internet: Michael Pachter has no idea what he's talking about

[Gman32]

I agree