Pachter: Sony’s Latest Forecast Suggests PS4 Price Cut Incoming, May Not Outsell PS2 In The Long Run

The PlayStation 4 is firing on all cylinders, and its sales over the last quarter have been nothing short of stunning. It makes sense, too, given just how wonderful a quarter the system has had with so many high profile new releases.

[darthv72]

It might outsell the PS2. There is still 6 years left in the 10 lifespan that the PS2 had and the average seems to be 15mil a year. If after 4 it is sitting at 60mil... there is still time to make 150mil. Especially if they drop the price of the slim to that sweet spot of $199.99.

[Abash]

The console market is approaching a turning point currently so it is too hard to predict where PS4 sales will end at. One thing for sure is that they will be well over 100 million when all is said and done

[darthv72]

Well if it doesn't beat the PS2 then it will either be the 3rd best selling PS platform or the 2nd best as it is pretty obvious it will pass the PS3.

[nix]

Didn't people know this already when the 60 million news came out?

[BiGT85]

If PS4 sells 78 million units worldwide by December 31th 2017 then they will have a chance

[subtenko]

come one people we have a record to break, buy more PS4's because you know sony aint got that RROD to help you out, they got the pro.

[indysurfn]

They are predicting about 18 million for next year according to their recent Earnings report. So it looks like they will make it easily if it is a 10 year life span which is possible with the PS4 PRO being way less than a year old.

And the fact that Microsoft will not likely release a new console(putting pressure on Sony to do the same) soon after releasing the Scorpio later this year.

18 million sales expected
http://www.dualshockers.com...

Bottom line if Patcher says something will not happen it means he thinks it will. And is helping his investors.

[theKiller]

does anybody think that sony will release another version of an upgraded ps4 before ps5 comes? I think after 3 years from pro release they will release pro 2 or something.
I personally support the idea of a second upgrade. the user base will be so huge for developers to ignore and they will have the ability to make top notch games with pro 2 after 2-3 years from now.

ps4 slim will be $150
ps4 pro will be $250
ps4 pro 2 will be $400 release date 2019-2020

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

@theKiller

I highly doubt that.

Maybe a Slim Pro is possible though.

[gameseveryday]

It will be absolutely phenomenal if it outsells the PS2. 150 million is a huge ask though. Sony needs to sell another 90 million...not impossible but seriously difficult. Pachter is on point...the success of Switch and possibly Scorpio may slow down things for PS4.

But that sweet 100 million mark is looking like a possibility.

[BiGT85]

I believe the PlayStation 4 will reach 100 million units worldwide by the end of 2018 the same as the PlayStation 2 sold 100 million units worldwide by the end 2005!!!

[thisismyaccount]

Nintendo sold about 1.3mill. Switch per month, close to 2.8 after 2 months. Sony is selling about 1.5mill. PS4 since 2013+ every month ... i believe it will be more a fight between the NX (stupid name "Switch) and the Scorpio for 2nd place.

Here a comparison between the PS2 vs PS4

(PS2) September 2003 (numbers in millions, price tag $179)
14.17 Asia + incl. Japan / 26.42 USA / 19.44 EU / 60.03 World Wide
(PS2) March 2007 (numbers in millions, price tag >>$129<<), 5 years to reach 100mill.
25.42 Asia + incl. Japan / 47.68 USA / 44.79 EU / 117.89 World Wide or ca. 17mill. per year since launch

(PS4) April 2017 (numbers in millions, price tag <<$299>>) :cough:vgzcharts:cough:
13.98 Asia + incl. Japan / 20.06 USA / 22.35 EU / 56.39 World Wide (60 shipped) or ca. 16mill. per year since launch

Sony PS4 > PS2 sales, if we take into account "price point after 3 years between the two (up to $150!)" and the dying japanese console market). C´mon SONY drop the price already, so i can get a 2nd Pro or Slim ;) it did wonders 10+ years ago ... a slim at $199 will cause a 2nd coming and a Pro at $299 to play Horizon at "near4K" + HDR ... plus all the upcoming exclusives. "going nuts here"

New PlayStation®2 $149 Price Point Bolsters Sales More Than Twofold Within First 30 Days
https://www.sony.com/en_us/...

[davand114]

I don't think the scorpio will effect the sales of the ps4 in any way. If the switch continues to be successful I could see it eating into some of the ps4 sales. The DS might be the last 150 million console for a long time though. I don't see anything beating either the ps2 or ds right now.

[davand114]

@thisismyaccount
The switch sales numbers are for march only we don't know how many they sold in April yet. The 2.76 million is for march.

[rainslacker]

The number it has to outsell needs to be determined to decide if it outsells the PS2 or not. Quite a significant portion of the 150 million sold came after the PS3 released. I think a lot of people forget that the PS2 sold up until about a year before this gen started....so realistically, if Sony can manage to even come close within this gen alone, it'll be quite the impressive feat.

100 million is almost a given at this point. Sony would have to literally cease all production within 2-3 years in order to not break that.....or screw up so royally that people turn away in droves....which isn't likely to happen.

[Ceaser9857361]

199.99 USD can happen or close to 149 USD would be a stealer for the slim version and it could replace the stock PS4 and the Ps4 pro could come down to 349 USD..

[lelo2play]

If Sony sells the PS4 Pro bundled with a game for 300€, I'll bite.

[yeahright2]

I seriously doubt it'll even get close to PS2. 110, 120million max I'd say. Consider that it's been on the market for 4 years now, And a reasonable guess for the PS5 is 2020. I don't think the 10 year lifespan is going to happen. Not to mention consoles sell less as time goes on.
Basically this all means they'd have to outperform their first 4 years in the next 3ish to the tune of 150%.
They'll break 100 million for sure. even if they can kill the console early to release ps5 and rake in the cash from that, they'll hold off and keep ps4 running until it breaks 100 million. if just for optics alone. It'll be a feather in their cap to say that 3 of 4 home consoles that broke 100 million in sales have a playstation logo on them.

[indysurfn]

That's not true that Console sale less as time goes by. Case in point PS3 outsold SNES, NES, GENESIS, SEGA CD, Sega Saturn, N64. In fact PS4 has already out sold all those platforms. Patcher is the one that started people to saying that. All the way back to ps2 time(Ironic isn't it).

[joeorc]

actually, with playstation Vue, Playstation digital titles, the PS4 has a pretty good chance to be much more viable as a digital content service top set box for digital streaming content, long after the life cycle of a traditional console support cycle..since playstation vue is one of the most used digital streaming live cable TV services...its one of the things that also make the PLaystation systems a means to be able to keep revinue from digital services on older consoles..that also means digital console titles, playstation Now, playstation store and of course Playstation VR and its added software and live VR video events.

the PS5 will just be another extension...PS4 pro pretty much will allow Sony to keep PS4 system platform on the shelf even when the PS5 launches.

[rainslacker]

If MS doesn't do much with Scorpio, or the Xbox brand in general, going forward, then Sony is going to be in no rush to push out a new console. They'll be in a comfortable position to take their time to release their next console when they're ready, and take advantage of any hardware boosts vs. costs advantages that come with waiting it out.

2020 is probably optimistic for the PS5 release. That would mean that Sony would be announcing a new console in about 2 years time....and the way things are going, it looks like they're very much setting up the PS4 to be receiving support with new games for well after that.

It may not reach PS2 sales numbers, because a lot of those sales did come after the PS3 released, but I think it's going to easily hit 120 million, if not 130-140 before PS5 releases. Sony is at the point where their system really starts to draw in the more casual crowd, and if Patchers forecast is correct, then that'll start when the price drops. Since many others around here also expect a price drop this year as well, Sony is just going to keep going up. They really couldn't have set themselves up better for this gen. It's like the perfect storm of competitors screw ups, hardware vs costs, timing for console releases, and total market domination that they saw during the PS2 days, and IMO, the games offering for PS4 is already getting to the point where it looks like it might start to exceed the "golden age" that we saw during the PS2 days. the excitement for PS right now is almost palpable. It's even stronger than what it felt like before PS2 took off.

[yeahright2]

@indy I'm not talking consoles generations as a whole, I'm talking individual consoles. ie the first half of a console's life it will sell more than in it's second half.

[rando]

PS2 didn't reach those crazy numbers until it dropped to $99. i'd say the sweet spot is $99.

[_-EDMIX-_]

Who knows, that was just such a different market. The market is more wide open now with titles like Final Fantasy Tekken, GTA etc being on all platforms.

MS is a bigger player, Nintendo still exist etc.

The only way I see PS4 moving past PS2 numbers, is if the market has grown by a huge amount over the last 10 years or so. Right now we don't know that those PS4 owners are new consumers or simply gamers that bought 360 and Wii last gen.

We'll see. They will keep breaking records though.

[rainslacker]

The market has grown. Console market alone is actually more than 50% bigger than it was in the PS2 days. Whether it hits PS2 sales will depend on how long the PS4 sells after the primary generation is over. PS2 got a significant portion of it's sales after the PS3 released. I think for the active generation, it'll outsell what the PS2 did during it's time, because it's already doing that, and as of right now, there is no real reason to believe this generation will end in a shorter time frame.

[_-EDMIX-_]

@rain- agreed because of that substantial growth it's definitely play a factor into PlayStation 4 moving past PlayStation 2 numbers.

[QUIMICOMORTAL]

I dont think the pc and mobile allow any console to ever surpass the ps2! But thats only my opinion.

[BiGT85]

PlayStation 2 sold 100 million units worldwide at the end 2005 that's five years later!!!

[DarkZane]

@darthv72 "If after 4 it is sitting at 60mil... there is still time to make 150mil."

Technically, it hasn't even been 3.5 years yet.

[DeadSilence]

To Outsell Ps2 it needs the magic 149$ price point.

Heck last time I saw a Ps2 on sale it was at 99€.

[davand114]

I don't see the ps4 getting to that price until a few years into the ps5.

[Relientk77]

Captain Obvious saying obvious things again.

PS4 will sell a lot, don't know if it'll beat PS2 though. It'll sell at least 125 million units

[XiNatsuDragnel]

Patcher you fool don't underestimate Sony and support it got.

[tyasia0]

Beating PS2 isn't as important as the fact that Sony controls more than 50% of the console market share. As long as they can maintain that PS4 will have been a complete success in any reasonable persons eyes.

[stuna1]

I'll agree with Patcher on the notion PS4 might not outsell the PS2, but for only 1 reason! Sony ends this console generation early! Notice I said Sony? Because at this point Sony is the only console maker in position to do so!

No current generation console has any hope of catching up to the PS4 in hardware sales, mindshares or marketshares! That's a reality, not even Scorpio!

If Microsoft tried to end the generation themselves by now saying Scorpio is the beginning of a new gen, it would literally destroy all the progess they've made since 2013. Not to mention bring or revisit the aftermath that was the unveiling of Xbox 1. Plus they would restart their counter to 0! Consoles sold 0, marketshares 0, mindshares 0! And not even realizing it but funny enough they would then place themselves in Nintendo's generation with the Switch! And who knows by then the Switch's fanbase could be 10 million or more strong.

Nintendo already started their generation with the Switch and by their own words they don't consider themselves in competition with Sony nor Microsoft, thus when Nintendo venture or start a generation the other 2 console makers don't follow behind them.

It's doubtful Sony even views Scorpio as a threat this generation and probably won't for some time because like I said even if Microsoft had everything fall into perfect alignment, just to overcome the huge deficit will take years and by then Sony would be ready for anything Microsoft could throw their way! It's not like Microsoft would be in a position to release another console now would it!? And if they do WOE Unto them!!!

So really if people think Microsoft is in a better position than Sony, you really haven't been looking at the scorecards.

[Death]

I wouldn't say Microsoft is in a better position, but they are in a different position. With Project Scorpio, Microsoft is getting away from traditional hardware generations. Scorpio will play all Xbox One and b/c Xbox 360 games with hardware enhancements much like we have seen for decades on PC. Do we see PC generations like we see console generations? I believe we will see the day where a game is released that will not play on Xbox One just like we see games come out that are simply unplayable on our older PC's, but by the time that happens I believe we will already see gamers transitioning to the next Xbox hardware release.

[stuna1]

I can't disagree that that's a possibility in Microsoft's case, but I don't see that as a route Sony is likely to take any time soon, and I definitely don't See Nintendo taking that route even longer since out of the console makers Nintendo are usually the last to move away from their core infrastructure. Mind you that's not taking a shot at them.

Even if Microsoft moved in the direction you're stating, the core console market will remain intact and Sony and Nintendo will continue to supplement and service the active console market. Not only that physical media will remain a constant even though the digital media space is growing. People seem to think physical demand for consoles and physical disc are going to dry up overnight!? That's simply not going to happen not for a nice long while.

[freshslicepizza]

The situtation was quite different back then though. The PS4 is getting a lot of Japanese support over the Xbox One but back in those days it was also big western titles that the PS2 got over the Gamecube and the Xbox. You had a situation where both of them sold roughly 25- 30 million each while the other went on to sell 150 million. That was a hige discrepency. The Xbox One is being outsold 2-1, still a wide margin but nothing like back then and Switch is making huge headway.

I predict about 100-120 million PS4 systems when all is said and done, quite a remarkable achievement. The Xbox One/Scorpio likely to be around 50 million in the end and who knows about Switch, probably at least 50 million.

The good news is price drops will be coming likely this year for the PS4.

[yeahright2]

I think you're underestimating X1 there. I predict 70-90. I'm already hearing rumblings of MS hearing and reacting to getting beaten senseless as far as exclusives goes.

[stuna1]

I don't see why you got all the disagrees? I actually agree with you and all the points likely are attributed to how things have played out thus far! Even though I partially agree with yeahright2 comment. Microsoft can get a resurgence of sales for Xbox S if they release some heavy hitting ips that have substance for 1, annd 2 they don't let Scorpio overshadow the Xbox S and the progress they've made thus far! Even though I don't see the Xbox S doing 70 million this generation,, I do see them being close if they do what I stated.

[kneon]

@yeahright2

Even if they suddenly realize the importance of exclusives, they take years to develop, longer if you have to create a new studio to do it. By then the PS5 will be imminent or already launched.

They could try to buy exclusivity, but when your competitor controls more than half the market that becomes very expensive. Many devs that take a long-term view with a franchise just won't do it.

[rainslacker]

That kind of neglects that Sony has no impetus to end the generation early if they're the one's that get to decide when it ends. Why stop a good thing just to start over at an unknown? It makes no sense for them to rush to a new generation, when there is significantly more profit in letting it ride as long as possible. If the competition doesn't start to encroach on Sony's very comfortable position, then they can take as much time as is prudent before pushing new hardware. I mean, it's the reason why Sony never once had to push through price drops....because they weren't in a position of having to do so.

In fact, it is Sony's current position which makes it much more possible that PS4 could outsell PS2 within the generation itself.

Think about it. MS won't be in a position to release a new console and save face until at least 2021, because this mid gen upgrade idea isn't going to strike fire twice in a row..particularly since MS is coming in big on the idea. Switch will likely be around for at least 5 years if it does well, so we're looking at 2022 for a new Nintendo console. That means Sony can have the PS4/PS4P out until 2021 before having to worry that the competition will make their next effort to surpass Sony(assuming that's their goal), which means they can take their time designing the next system, gaining hardware and cost advantages, and look harder at what the competition may attempt to outdo Sony.

Lets face it. Sony is in about the best position any console maker has ever been in. They've done everything right with the PS4, and the competition has done nothing but react to them. Sony has been in complete control this whole generation, and for a corporation, that means they can maximize all potential revenue and profits from the sale of that system.

Switch right now is the only unknown. It's hard to say how it'll affect the generation and Sony going forward. It won't "beat" the PS4, but Nintendo can become a more influential player in the console wars if they play their cards right. And the real funny thing about all this is that the longer Sony waits it out, the more advantageous it is for Nintendo....whereas MS gains almost no advantage if the Scorpio doesn't chance the perception and sales of Xbox going forward.

[FallenAngel1984]

PS4 started selling significantly faster than PS2, now their sales are on par with each other. With this fact in mind it's hard to imagine that PS4 will keep a strong enough pace consistently to eventually outsell PS2 when that same pace dropped relatively significantly last year.

[Gemmol]

it had no chance to outsell ps2, look how much consoles ps2 sold in japan, its not a huge amount compared to other regions but the amount it sold help the ps2 to reach its legendary status........without that help for ps4 since japan a handheld territory they will have to not count on Japan in order to reach legendary ps2........best choice...ps5 handheld console hybrid.......japan will get it because its a handheld....and the rest of the world will pick it up for it being a console and then maybe it will out sell ps2

[Lime123]

PS2 sold around 22 million in Japan, PS4 will sell 8-9 million in Japan, so that's 13-14 million difference. And you think because Japan PS4 can't reach PS2 numbers? You don't think Europe and Asia expanded since PS2?

[Gemmol]

you have a good point, forgot about asia, I do not have any numbers close by.....but how is ps2 europe numbers vs ps3 europe numbers, did it dip or ps3 expanded and sold more??? I ask because it may show a sign of what to estimate for ps4

[_-EDMIX-_]

"ps5 handheld console hybrid" ?

or just make another PSP...you do know that PSP has the option to play on TV right?

Why would they not make a PS5 console, when they can just do both? They own 50% of the market right now and have the fastest selling console in history, I'm not sure why they would jump into the handheld market, something that doesn't work for them as a company.

What works for Nintendo, won't work for Sony.

Nintendo has a reason to go handheld exclusive, Sony doesn't.

Sony moves historic console numbers, Nintendo doesn't.

Nintendo had MORE reason to go handheld only then Sony.

If anything, Sony has reason to never leave the dedicated console market.

Wii U is one of the worst selling consoles of all time, PS4 is one of the best selling and fastest selling.........
PS Vita is one of the worst selling portables of all time, 3DS moved around 65 million units....

ie

PS5 will be a console, Sony does that well.

Switch will be a handheld, Nintendo does that well.

Many of us called Nintendo would go handheld only, just like many of us are calling that Sony may not even make another handheld. Playing off of the tv is "hybrid" to you, you simply might just be asking Sony to make another PSP....it could already do that sooooooo making one that uses Nvida's tech wouldn't mean you would not get a PS5, it would simply mean you'd get a PSP that was like the Switch.

Nintendo need to throw that hailmary in the handheld market to stay relevant.

Sony doesn't. They are doing fine in the console market, ie doing BETTER then Nintendo has in their entire history. JUST like Nintendo is doing fine in the portable market.

What is good for Nintendo, is not good for Sony and vice versa. Leave your fanboy at home bud, I have no idea why PS5 would be a handheld when they legit own the home console market.....

I have no idea why you thought it would make sense to ask Sony to NOT make a PS5 that is a home console LMFAO! WHY? Just cause Nintendo can't hang in the home console market, doesn't mean Sony needs to run and hide. Did you forget they own 50% of the market, sold MORE consoles then Nintendo and have the fastest selling home console right now?

Thats like saying, for Nintendo's next system to do well, it needs to be a home console...OH like Wii U? That turned out GREAT right?

Sony owns the home console market bud,
JUST like Nintendo is pretty much the king of the portable market (ie Switch being a portable)

Both do fine in the markets they do well in. Both won't suddenly break records going outside their markets.

PS Vita didn't, Wii U didn't. THUS, no Vita support, no new PSP, THUS Wii U left behind, Switch is a portable, Nintendo don't make home consoles anymore ie exclusive to the television, they make portables that can play on TV ala PSP. ie they left the home console market bud...

[SatanicEyeJesus]

Why people still give credits to this guy talk? He is always chancing his opinions, predictions, etc... Anyone can be a "professional" this way.

[bluefox755]

PS2 didn't really have any competition. The fact that PS4 is pulling near-ps2 numbers with an established competitor is just as impressive tbh.

[ILostMyMind]

PS2 had several competitors ... and Sony crushed them all. Give credit to who deserves it.

[talocaca]

It is priced higher than the PS2 so it would be understandable....

And let's not forget that the PSN is a MASSIVE cash cow for Sony that wasn't there during the PS2 days.

Even if it peaked at 80 million, it's still a huge success.

[OB1Biker]

Its hilarious that people get triggered by 'PS4 may not outsell the PS2'
Next clickbait 'PS4 may outsell the PS2'
Keep driving gaminbolt posts hot guys....maybe not?

[Sharingan_no_Kakashi]

Nah I wouldn't expect it to reach the ps2 sales but it should do better than ps1 and ps3.

[StormLegend]

It doesn't have too IMO just hit the 100 million mark. All of that PS+ money will make anyone happy.

[Father__Merrin]

The Ps2 used to sell as little as £99 the PS4 can never get to that price, That's why another console will never sell as much as Ps2

I predict well over 100million though

[_-EDMIX-_]

I agree.

Of course, who really knows. For all we know, Sony whips out PS5 and PS4 is still selling and still getting games. With some price drops, it can sell for a long time, but I agree that its just not really likely.

This isn't 2005 any more. The gaming landscape is just so different and more spread out, PS2 legit had just a unrealistic market share that I don't really think thats going to happen again.

MS is doing their own thing and have their install base going pretty strong, strong enough that I don't think we'll see those PS2 type numbers from PS4, well end game 160 million etc

Time thinks it could happen

http://techland.time.com/20...

I'm not too sure about that though lol, different market. PS2 also moved those numbers when Capcom was LIT AF, Final Fantasy was exclusive, GTA for the most part of the gen was exclusive, Tekken etc

[inxine]

who cares, ps4 is a great fking console, keep the games coming, anything else shouldnt matter to us.

[mark3214uk]

they will announce a price cut at E3 to counter the scorpio's high price

then the ps4 will fly of the shelves even faster

if sony do a price cut and announce more games at E3 they will win E3 reguardless of what ms do

[ifrit_caress]

Today, I read an article about how the game industry is unsustainable yet there are these console successes and great game sales. Someone is lying somewhere.

On a more relevant note 📝
This Pachter guy should just keep his predictions and opinions to himself. Stay out of the industry.

[corroios]

well if patcher say this, then the PS4 will really surpass the PS2

[Skankinruby]

I don't think it will, xbox has claimed too much of the market for ps4 to sell that much. But it should definitely break 100 million

[AmUnRa]

Xbox has claimed too much of the market for the PS4 to sell that much.

Do you really believe that. O my God, you really do, do you??
The numbers says otherwise.😊

[saimcheeda]

PS2 was something completely unique in that I don't think we'll see that type of generation again. It completely outsold everything else and was for all intents and purposes the only console up for sale!

[Kingcorey13]

E3..500gb slim, 199.99, 1tb249.99, pro 299.99. Bet me

[Einhander1971]

Does it really matter PS4 is a beast regardless. PS2 was juggernaut what a system.

[NextGenCeo]

Impossible to beat PS2 147 million unit. Because Microsoft, Nintendo and PC powerful on the market. Almost every game coming to PC on these days. Nintendo just released new hardware and selling really well. Scorpio on the way. So on that point no way yo beat PS2 sales record but! PS4 can have big chance to beat PS1 105 million sales record.

(ESL guy here)

[ILostMyMind]

I agree.

[Legatus]

It doesn't matter it will surpass PS2 or not, PS4 is already a huge success and one hell of a console. 100 million here we come.

[King_Lothric]

Even if it does not make it there, being the undisputed #1 console, in both hardware and software, of this generation is still an amazing achievement.

Since the PS1 released, look at how console generations leadership has bee rolling:

Sony: 3 generations won (PS1, PS2, PS4)
Nintendo : 1 generation won (Wii)
Microsoft: 0

[zodiac909]

Pachter as always pointing out the obvious. Dammit I wish I could get paid to say the exact same stuff he says.

[Wuket]

When was the last time this guy got anything remotely correct? NEVER

[bluefox755]

The fact that they'd even get anywhere near PS2 is highly impressive, especially when you consider PS2 was sold at a loss and PS4 wasn't.

[JunMei]

I don't think that anything will outsell the PS2 for a long time. Everything in the world lined up just right for that one.

[Jalapeno]

I think there will be another PS4 and it will be the PS4K.

[Muadiib]

It won't come close the PS2's sales, you guys are dreaming.

[MasterCornholio]

It will outsell the PS3 by quite a bit which is a big improvement for Sony. Can definitely see it going past 100 million.

[Platformgamer]

Ps4 will have a price cut when scorpio release, similar to the price cut at switch launch.
Ps4 will outsell ps2 or at least reach 100 million unit selled by fall 2018, with awesome exclusives like crash n sane trilogy, god of war, the last of us 2 and death stranding coming out (and maybe a spyro trilogy remake, if the signals are correct).
I'm better than patcher at this game ahahah

[MultiConsoleGamer]

Price cut at E3. It will clear 100 million easy.

[MasterCornholio]

And probably with both models to stall the XB1S and Scorpio during the holidays. And not to mention argue about the games to convince people to buy a PlayStation over an Xbox.