Despite its amazing start, the PS4 will never outsell the PS2

The PS4 is off to an amazing start, but the market conditions dictate that it will never beat the PS2 in terms of sales.

[Abash]

Way, way too early to come to that conclusion. The PS4 hasn't even received a single price drop yet

[scark92]

Which is impressive at that xD

[Cindy-rella]

Id love to get the lottery numbers for the whole week from the writer

[scark92]

LOL ^^^

[Anorexorcist]

@ Cindy-rella

Come on, be a little more reasonable. The fact that Sony has the mobile-tablet gaming market to stand in it's way is probably the only real point that the author made in this article. But that is still a very tangible obstacle that the PS2 did not have to contend with.

I think the PS4 won't exactly surpass PS2 lifetime sales figures, but it could come really close to it. At the very least I think PS4 will outsell PS3 at the end of it's lifetime.

[kneon]

@Anorexorcist

There is also the issue that it's unlikely the PS4 will be on the market as long as the PS2 was.

The PS2 had a remarkably long life. Sure it wasn't selling nearly as much the last few years of it's life but it was still selling.

[miyamoto]

Actually its the mobile gaming market that is helping the PS4 grow very fast. From casual to hardcore hobbyists millions of gmaers are becoming.

[perdie]

@GearsdoodooBruh if you do the math 5 years = 60 months plus 6 more months = 66 months. Nice try though

[firelogic]

@GearsdoodooBruh

The PS2 did not sell 150 million in 66 months. Check your facts. That would be 27.27 million every year during those 5 years and 6 months. Never happened. It took the PS4 almost 2 years to hit 25 million. You think the PS2 vastly outpaced that?

[Retroman]

@ Gearsdoodoobruh

possible reason ps4 will never catch up or surpass ps2
1. cd technology was fresh and new back then im sure everyone was excited.
2. dvd playback technology was fresh and new back then everyone was probably saying what the Heck?? dvd player in a gaming system.
3. bluray technology is new but did not grab consumers attention as dvd did with ps2.i believe ps2 was more of a shocker,surprise than basic SNES console .
4. ps4 is a great system but times has changed. if ps4 made to 50 million sold this day and age that's a accomplishment by it's self.

[Dasteru]

@GearsdoodooBruh:

Actually it took the PS2 5 years, 9 months to sell 100m units. They didn't hit 150m til the end of 2010. They hit 155m right as Sony discontinued the system on jan 4th 2013, over 12 years after the system released. The PS4 still has over 9 years to catch up.

[DemonChicken]

I like to jump in with PS2 sales

https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...

I quote "The console sold slightly more than 500,000 units on its first day, in November 2000. This marked an industry record for the fastest-selling game console" and "Over 150 million units of PS2 hardware had been sold worldwide as of the end of 2010" which is more that your 5 years and 6/9 months

imho It's still too early to tell especially when there are so many good games and peripherals (Morpheus) to come!

[miyamoto]

PS4 sells at a rate of 20M units a year x 5 years and that will be 100M by 2018. That is with no price cut.
Give it another 3 years at $300 and its 160M easily.

PS2 took 10 years to hit 150M sold.
That is the math.

[DarkZane]

@GearsdoodooBruh

It took 10 years for the PS2 to sell 155 millions.

Also, the PS4 is at 25.3 millions right now, not 23 millions.

[Dasteru]

@DarkZane:

It hit 155m just before Sony discontinued it in jan 2013. 12 years after launch.

[XBLSkull]

I agree, I don't think it'll top the PS2. You can see how last generation Sony lost a ton of market share compared to the PS2 era and I think it is unlikely they will ever be in a better position. Then again there are more gamers now than ever before so time will tell, but if I was betting, my money would be on PS2 remaining King.

[ngaydazng7]

@gearswoow er what ever, dude you just got splooged all over your face with the truth. the ps2 sold like gangbusters and the ps4 is selling even better. #dealwithit.

[badz149]

Seriously...where did this guy got the "fact" that the PS2 sold 150mil in less than 6 years? It took almost 10 years for the PS2 although the last 3 years of its life was not so great due to the existence of the 7th gen consoles. But I think it did around 120mil before the PS3 was released.

[Gority]

@Gears

I like how you are trying to tell people to do the math when you are saying it sold 150 million in 5 and a half years when it actually sold that in about 12 years.

[Aenea]

This might help:

http://s481.photobucket.com...

[AndrewLB]

@DarkZane

It's ~25 million "shipped", not retail sales. In fact, most of the so-called "sold through" numbers the fanboys love to tout are actually just estimates based on shipped numbers. They don't have actual hard sales numbers from retailers.

Read the bottom fine print:

http://www.jp.playstation.c...

[Cid33]

@ AndrewLB does it matter? if its shipped or retail sales. to the company its sales as soon anyone buys it does not matter if its a store or if its you

[andibandit]

@Miyamoto

A consoles best years tends to be the first 2-3 years, saleswise. Hereafter the sales tend to drop off.

source: http://ignorethecode.net/bl...

[Wh15ky]

@ gears

"Do the maths my friend, its not that hard"

Although you seem to be struggling a bit.

"Go ahead and look it up"

You honestly think most people here haven't? You need to post evidence when you quote numbers otherwise you're just making them up.

Now where did you look this up?

Awwww, you're out of bubbles, there's a surprise.

[christian hour]

I can understand people in here getting the figures wrong, people love to fluff the numbers to their liking on this site. But the actual article got it wrong too which is kind of blowing my mind, especially from a PS4 site.

The ps2 sold 155 million in its lifetime. Apparently people here and the author of the article assumed that meant "when the ps3 was released". The ps2 was still being manufactured and still had games developed for it right up until 2013, fifa and pes being the last 2 games to come out for it.

Thats 13 years, not 5.

The article is absurd, it honestly doesn't think that with the size the industry is now versus how it was 10 years ago, the ps4 isn't going to outsell the ps2? Hell even the xb1 could outsell the ps2 in 13 years given how big this industry and its userbase has grown, assuming MS doesn't drop it like the original xbox.(JOKE! please dont burn me fanpeople)

[XisThatKid]

This is absurd you naysayers need to know it took PS2 what 12 years to sell 150 mil or so. Now even though I agree that PS4 won't get to that in 10 years that's my opinion. The evidence against PS4s sales are completely illegitimate. Not saying that it's impossible I can happen I just doubt it the time and market is vastly different. Yes price drops and great software will achieve this feat. LMFAO 5+ years sold 150 units where are you people getting this from?
If you just judge of the current sales track all the way through PS4 has out performed PS2 in every way.

[SilentNegotiator]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum...

And considering that Ps4 is currently outpacing Ps2, it's a pretty uneducated and baseless conclusion.

[morganfell]

Those numbers from Zhuge Ex are amazing analysis. Unlike Pachter, who is a speculator, Zhuge Ex is an analyst. But the idiot mods at Neogaf banned him. They banned him for simple, unbiased reporting of real verifiable numbers. He currently has a 30 day ban

There are already people questioning if EviLore did this because he (EviLore) is currently under the employ of a 3rd party that didn't like the influence Zhuge Ex's analysis was having and the picture it was painting to the Gaf audience. Considering Zhuge Ex has broken no rules whatsover, it is the only possiblility that fits the facts.

[DLConspiracy]

While at first I was turned off by the article. Then I actually read all the way through.

The author is not referring to Sales lIke the title suggests. He is referring to units sold over the life of each PS2 and PS4 console. Which negates the click bait title. Using the word "outsell".

[rainslacker]

The only thing which would cause it to not match the PS2 if it keeps up the same pace, or improves which is common as a generation continues, is if they stop selling it sooner rather than later. The PS2 continued to sell a lot after the PS3 released and I believe it was discontinued in 2013.

The math in the article doesn't really add up, and the time frame involved is skewed and not accurate at all.

[Segata]

At one point Wii was outpacing PS2. Same with DS. 3DS at one point was outpacing DS. None ever surpassed what they were outpacing at some point. More often then not it means little as the market slows down. I love my PS4 and all but it's too early to celebrate topping PS2 even if outpacing but only 2 years in.

[jb227]

Exactly, I see people comparing lifetime sales of the ps2 to the ps4, totally disregarding the exponential growth that happens on the back end of a systems life cycle....that's when the big numbers start rolling in, after price drops & with a huge library bolstering the system.

The only thing that could hold the ps4 back from those kinds of numbers is the competition. Ps2 launched with virtually no direct competition, the dreamcast was floundering & Nintendo was offering a very different service than playstation at the time. By the time the Xbox rolled around, the ps2 was already the top dog so it basically ran unopposed that whole console generation, but now with direct competition with MS, we saw those same numbers divided between the two last gen, around 80 million per console. I don't think the split will be as even this gen, it'll be in Sonys favor by at least 25% or more, so I could see ps4 hit 100 mil & XBO hit 60-80 mil, but I think it'll be a shorter console cycle. Hopefully the console gaming market grows and both boxes hit ps2 numbers though!

[ZhugeEX]

Thanks for the kind words Morganfell. Great to see people from different websites are able to find the posts I make on NeoGAF useful. Although I would say that Pachter is also an analyst haha.

The ban was because of posts I made in the ChinaJoy thread which were misunderstood by a moderator. I can't say I'm too pleased about the ban as this really was a misunderstanding and there was no reason for my ban.

That being said I look forward to being able to post more shortly and hope that my posts continue to be well received.

[morganfell]

@ZhugeEx,

The fact the ban has not been lifted serves to show the arrogance employed by Gaf Mods and controlling Court Jester continues unabated. The ban is in the end a major disservice to the lesser number of Gaf visitors that go to the site because they genuinely care about games.

I think of Pachter more as a sentationalist carny and a hawker rather than a person that employs statistics and logical probablilities to develop market analysis as well as predictions regarding trends. Speaking to his accuracy, I have seen better from a 20 year old daisy air rifle with bent sights :)

On the other hand, your work is on the upper end of remarkable.

Welcome aboard.

[ABizzel1]

I think it's too soon, but the real reason it's going to struggle to beat PS2 is because PS2 had unheard of sells in EVERY region that to this day have still not bee challenged by any other console hardware.

It sold around 55m in NA / EU, 25m in JP, and 25m around the rest of the world.

The nest best selling console in each regions prior to that was

NA: 360 49m
EU: PS1 36m
JP: PS1 / NES 20m
Row: PS3 13m

Even combined the 2nd highest selling consoles for those regions only equals 118m in sales. They have a real chance of beating the PS2's EU sales record (55m is a lot, but PS4 is completely dominating over there), but I don't think it'll beat US (45m - 50m vs 55m), or RoW (15m - 18m, vs 25m), absolutely won't beat JP (10m - 15m, vs 25m).

I see PS4 selling 120m - 150m, as long as things continue to go well for them, they drop amazing genre defining games from 2016 - the end of it's life cycle, and they a have great price all generation.

It'll best the 3rd best selling hardware almost guaranteed, and the 2nd best selling console without question.

[UKmilitia]

lol what a bullshit article.

the console has had no offical pricedrop.
its still in early years with no killer killer games out and many people havent made the new gen jump.

im not being funny but with it outselling other consoles by 2:1 i think its well on track to beat the ps2 for sales.
Sony just has to keep the wheels moving and getting the big hitters out and breaking sales.
i think by xmas and MS big games have hit(halo 5 and TR) we will have a good idea how its gonna go.

i expect uncharted to make big console sales.

[Tsar4ever01]

The reason I belive P4 won't outsell Ps2 is one simple reason, Ps2's lifetime support was long, I think at least a decade. Ps4's lifetime support won't be as long, now that Sony's no longer developing hardware from scratch like the earlier generations. AMD is sharing the financial burden of hardware so Sony no longer has to support it's console as long to make back it's profit margins. Bet we will be hearing tech leaks about Ps5 in around 2018.

[badz149]

What are u talking about? Sony has always supported their console for a long time. Even the "not so great selling" PS3 is on its 10th year already and Sony hasn't announce its discontinuation yet. So the chance that the PS4 will be supported long even after the release of the PS5 is very high.

[Death]

Not to pick, but the PS3 launched 8 years, 8 months and 3 weeks ago on November 11th 2006. Sony shifted all first party support to the PS4 two and a half years ago. http://www.ign.com/articles... You may have a different definition of support.

[KingofGambling]

@Death
There's still games coming out for the PS3. Even though most of them are Japanese, but that is still support.

[GribbleGrunger]

Here's the problem with this article:

"And because of this, we’ve heard many proclaim that the PS4 will “outsell the PS2 during its lifetime”. That won’t happen. No matter how well the PS4 is doing right now — and it’s doing very well, practically obliterating the competition — it needs to sell 130+ million units in just 3-4 years."

It took 12 years for the PS2 to sell 157m. The PS4 has to sell 130+ million in the next 10 years, not 3-4 years. How the hell did this get approved?

[BitbyDeath]

Yep and 11 years to reach 150M.

http://techcrunch.com/2011/...

[GribbleGrunger]

@BitbyDeath:

The stupid thing is they actually acknowledge the PS4 is tracking 'ahead' of the PS2 at this point. This means they think the PS2 must have sold 130+m in the following 3-4 years. Even at 4 years that would mean they think the PS2 sold 32.5m a year. At 3 years it would be 43.3m a year. And then it sold Zero in the next 6 years!

The PS4 is likely to be on the market for at least 12 years (just like the PS2), so the PS4 has to sell 13m a year. Doesn't sound so impossible now does it. LOL

That's not to say the PS4 WILL reach 157m, just that the way they've arrived at their conclusion is almost cartoon like.

[rainslacker]

I think it might last longer than 12 years. Especially with PSNow being a thing. Eventually they'll be able to release a PS4 which is no bigger than a portable CD drive, or even a PSTV if they go all digital...or even a chromecast...or just build them into TV's for digital download stuff and PSNow, etc. PS4 is likely to become a huge platform that goes beyond the basic console.

I also believe that this is the direction that MS wants to take, and eventually make the console more about a standardized set of hardware, or minimum requirements, as opposed to an actual console. It's what 3DO tried to do way back in the day, and it makes sense to open up the market in such a way. it's what 3DO was trying to do about 20 odd years ago. Funny how circular the video game industry is.

Anyhow, the PS5 could just be a upgraded PS4 if they stay with the same technology, so the cost to make PS4's is going to keep going down as they keep upgrading the processors and chips.

12 years may seem like a long time when it comes to video games, but realistically, games have gotten to a point where there isn't huge improvements between generations, so the older generations could definately be sustained longer.

[GribbleGrunger]

@rainslacker:

I agree with pretty much everything you said. There's definitely the potential to stretch the lifecycle even longer. I can see the PS4 having a 15 year lifecycle easily with the PS5 (if it isn't PSNow) being backward compatible so that all of your PSN collection can be moved over, as well as hard copies of course.

[showtimefolks]

How can the author know this? it's way too early right now, if it keeps up and let's say it gets a small 5%boost from China than I don't see a reason why it can't get to provide pass the ps2 sales

ps2 was in the market for a while after ps3 launched so will the ps4 get the same amount of time?

ps2 is a all time classic console IMO. it has some of my favorite memories. I hope ps4 can be as good for me and others. Sony had yet to disoppoint me so let's keep this thing rolling

Sony has projected that ps4 will be at 33 or 36 million by March 2016, that's just amazinb. sorry I don't have an axact

[rainslacker]

It also hasn't had anywhere close to 12 years on the market either.

Lots of people seem to disregard the fact that almost half of PS2's sales came after the PS3 released.

[Imalwaysright]

PS2 reached 100 million units sold in 2005 and in March 2007 was at 118 million. PS2 was probably at 113 or 114 million units sold when the PS3 was released in November 2006. PS2 had less than 1/3 of it's sales after the PS3 was released.

[FAREEZ]

Nope, ps4 won't outsell ps2. The only reason why ps2 sold 150 millions is because piracy. No way you can play pirated disc on ps4. I know because I have my own game shop(srs)...

[AndrewLB]

The PS4 has already been hacked and games are being pirated. Or did you not get the memo?

http://www.ign.com/boards/t...

[Loktai]

Sorry... nothing to do with piracy at all. It did HAVE Piracy but that isnt what made it sell well... it sold well in the USA because it was home to a huge number of sports and action games including being the console for choice for games like Madden, it sold well in asia because it was the home of final fantasy, and a shitload of other RPGs, and yes it was an extremely cheap DVD Player which for a lot of people early on was a selling point. It also came in riding the success of the PS1 which is iconic and in most of the world also sold amazingly for many of the same reasons (obviously minus DVD Support but for many in the 90s it was their first CD player from what I remember in my own city).

It had very very little to do with piracy, Im sure you could argue some 5 or even 10% of its sales after year 4 were due to piracy but for MUCH of the time the machine was popular and selling well ability to copy and modify consoles for piracy was outside most peoples reach or comfort zone... especially with so many used games available for so cheap near the end... it was very niche. AS evidenced by strong software sales.

[DarXyde]

If piracy were the deciding factor, the original Xbox would've done much better and DreamCast would've had much longer legs.

Both of those platforms were incredibly susceptible to piracy. For most games, you literally just needed to burn a CD on DreamCast and you could readily burn a game to the Xbox hard drive with a mod chip.

I'm pretty sure PS2 just had, you know, a ton of games worth playing that you could only play on PS2. I'd say that's far more indicative of its sales success than piracy.

[kenshiro100]

Andrew, what nonsense are you getting on with? The PS4 was never hacked.

Lol@ you.

[AngeliclceDiamond]

to early indeed

[assdan]

I'm guessing it won't, but to say it isn't possible is definitely jumping to conclusions.

[BubbsyKong]

LMAO youd like to get a whole week of lottery numbers.... FML u throw some proof at sony fanboys and they get buthurt AF, It's a simple fact, math dusnt lie... So you must have been brought up withought math or u must be really and i mean REALLY stupid not to count the numbers. Now if u can somehow proove the numbers wrong be my guest but thats like finding the higgs particle (do you even kno LMAO) so u guys can keep fooling yourselfs but :/ the people who know how to do simple math (grade 8 math) you'll know whats goin on.

[Ulf]

The PS4 has FAR less potential for a price drop than the PS2 did, due to the rapidly slowing rate, and hugely increasing size reduction expense, of semiconductor tech.

It will very likely never drop below $299.99, and that won't be until a 14nm APU can be manufactured cheaper than the 28nm version -- sometime past 2017, according to both TSMC and GF, where the chips are made.

...however, the PS4, for the very same reason, is bound to have a very enduring lifespan -- at least as long as the PS2, if not longer.

[PudgeyBurrito]

Previous article states PS4 is on track to pass PS2.. Check
New article states it isn't on track.. Check.
Source is a site no one has ever heard of really.. Check
Web Design is minimal and adds to the theory above.. Check

The fanboys are strong within this post.

[Magicite]

The war has changed...
But yeah, market and public are different now, PS4 wont reach PS2 numbers, but hopefully it sells solid 100m+.

[iTechHeads]

Whoever wrote that article completely overlooked the fact that the PS4 is dominating the market right now without even having a single price cut. In fact, its actually more expensive than the Xbox One right now and its still kicking ass.

There's a bright future ahead of PS4 and outselling the PS2 is very much possible!!

[Aloy-Boyfriend]

I'm pretty sure it will. PS4 sales don't seem o slow down and this hobby only gets bigger and bigger. That and when Sony studios start pumping out games like crazy like they did with PS3.

They just need to improve PSN and not get lazy and complacent. Look at what made the PS2 so good and dominate that gen, and I'm sure it will surpass it in no time.

[ChuckTheIceMan]

Hopefully the exclusives are more like bloodborne and less like the order. A lack of exclusives will eventually catch up to Sony.

[UKmilitia]

lack??
thats a stupid comment.

because it doesnt lack exclusives,infact it has more than MS so lets not be stupid and being up that silly arguement.

[Chevalier]

If having the most 1st party and 3rd party exclusives and the most indie games is a 'lack' of games then the Xbone must be barren then.

[Death]

Make a list. Sony has said they are light on first party games for 2015. http://www.gamespot.com/art... How is it so many people know better than Sony on this topic? Sony has more indie support.

[Chevalier]

@Death

Sony 2015 1st party

The Order 1886
MLB 15
Bloodborne
Tearaway
God Of War 3
Uncharted Collection
Until Dawn

MS 1st party

Gears of war HD
Halo 5
Forza 6
Fable Legends
Rare replay
Scream ride

3rd party exclusives PS4 by a landslide.

[CBaoth]

sigh....from Merriam Webster:

exclusive - a) limiting or limited to possession, control, or use by a single individual or group
b) an exclusive right (as to sell a particular product in a certain area)

known synonyms - sole, single, unshared

Doesn't matter if a gamer doesn't want to, can't afford to, or doesn't have the time to; whatever the reason it doesn't make PC (and 7th gen) ports irrelevant to the "exclusive" discussion. We can't stretch the definition of words to fit the context of our arguments. Phrases like "console and/or brand exclusive" are simply oxymorons, nothing more.

Truth is these are the only retail XB1 exclusives: Forza 5, Sunset Overdrive, Kinect Sports Rivals, Fantasia, and Dance Central Spotlight. PS4 has 6; The Order 1886, Killzone SF, Knack, Infamous SS, Bloodborne, and Driveclub.

Every other title is available via PC or is cross-platform with gen 7. I have zero issue giving any of these publishers my hard earned money for a quality product. But if it ain't on just one gaming device, then it ain't exclusive.

[Death]

@Chevalier,

Bloodborne and The Order are third party exclusives. Sony severed ties with Ready at Dawn due to disappointing sales of The Order.

@CBaoth,

Forza Horizon 2 on the 360 and Xbox One are different games. You are also omitting Gears, Halo 5, and Forza 6 from your list. It's a little odd you want to punish Microsoft for supporting Microsoft Windows and PC, but I get it. It's a much better argument for you when you don't count games that Microsoft releases for both of their platforms.

[CBaoth]

Death

You can't be this fucking dense can you? I omitted Gears 4 because it doesn't drop until 2016. Gears Ultimate is on PC as well as the 1st Gears. I don't champion timed exclusivity. Should we now start counting remade cutscenes or content you didn't get to play because it was only on the PC as exclusives? Halo5 and Forza6 aren't out YET, ergo they're not included. Once they release we absolutely will count them.

" It's a little odd you want to punish Microsoft for supporting Microsoft Windows and PC, but I get it. It's a much better argument for you when you don't count games that Microsoft releases for both of their platform"

You don't get it and I guess you never will. They're not EXCLUSIVE. Hence the reason I didn't include GOW3 remastered, tLoU, MLB 15, and LBP3 either on the PS4! That's why I didn't include PC cross gen titles like Tropico5, Bound by Flame, Ethan Carter, or any upcoming game like SOMA. Sad part is I even included a little caveat for the morons who play their bias card - "I have zero issue giving any of these publishers my hard earned money for a quality product".

Let me reiterate, I own a 360, 2 windows gaming rigs, and an xbox one. Plus a PS3/4, Vita, WiiU, and 3DS; I go where the games go and I refuse to disrespect ANY platform because it doesn't fit the parameters of your argument. I'm not the one choosing to ignore over 500 years of a word's etymology for a petty pissing contest.

[iTechHeads]

There's plenty of exclusives not only out now but coming within the next year. The lists have been posted all over the place and there's is far from a lack of exclusives. PS4 actually has more exclusives than XB1.

Rocket League is an amazing game that seems to be ignored in list wars because its not out on retail.

[ABizzel1]

I don't think it will simply due to the sales the PS2 had in each region has not been met or exceeded by any other console to date.

NA: 55m
EU: 55m
JP: 25m
RoW: 26m

At this point it's completely out of the question for JP to see a console break 20m, with 15m being a huge struggle that even the Wii and all it's popularity couldn't tackle. The PS4 is the next candidate to see if JP can cross 15m, thanks to all the huge JRPG's the console will be and has been getting.
(PS4 JP 15m tops)

Sony has always done well in RoW, and the market is growing slowly but surely. The PS3 / Wii / and 360 did great numbers at 13m / 10m / 10m. The gen before that PS2 / Xbox / GC did 26m / 1m / 1m, so a growth of 5m gamers. The PS4 is doing very well already with 4m sold and likely 5m by the time it finishes it's full 2nd year on the market. If it continues that sales trend and with price drops gains a boost, then It has a very slim chance of breaking the PS2's record, but it's unlikely.
(PS4 RoW 20m tops)

NA sales are similar situation to RoW, but a bit worse. The PS2 sold a record breaking 55m, and the closest console to match that was the 360 with 49m, a huge feat as well. The PS4 could very well hit 50m in NA, and with a huge bit of luck beat the PS2's 55m. The problem is the PS2 was the undisputed champ of it's gen in NA, and the 360 was the undisputed champ it's gen for core gamers in NA (Wii did almost as well, but it sold to a completely different audience). The PS4 is the undisputed champ Worldwide this gen, but in NA the XBO is a real challenger and it's going to be a bit harder taking that much of the NA market.
(PS4 NA 50m tops)

EU is the one regions PS4 could very well break the PS2's record. PS4 is completely dominating EU just like the PS2 did, and has a real chance of selling 12m in it's first 2 years alone, and in 6 more years it could very well be at 50m sold. But by then the PS5 will have launched, but if the PS4 continues to sell well in EU just like the PS2 and PS3 have done, then it could very well break that 55m mark.
(PS4 EU 55m tops)

EU: 55m
NA: 50m
RoW: 20m
JP: 15m

Total: 140m

That's what I see PS4 ending at a year or two into the life cycle of the PS5. It has a chance to sell more or less, depending on if Sony bombards it with genre defining exclusives, and amazing pricing.

[TheGreatGamer]

The market is a lot more saturated today than when the PS2 released, Xbox One is selling more popular than the OG xbox did and has a bigger brand now than back then. On top of that, PC gaming has been rising year on year so I doubt PS4 will reach 155 million if not simply because I imagine we'll get new consoles in 2019/2020.

[SquidBuck]

It's great to be optimistic isn't it :)

[Paytaa]

You could argue that there are more gamers now than 10+ years ago. But, I for one don't see really any console in the foreseeable future pass the PS2 or even match its sales. Like you said Xbox is a much bigger brand than it was in 2001-2005 and the PC market is a lot easier to get into now versus then. Only time will tell I guess but it's quite obvious PS4 will exceed PS3 sales which is a good thing.

[AndrewLB]

PC gaming has been king for a couple years now with game revenue exceeding PS4, Xbone, and Wii U combined.

[TwoForce]

Really, dude ? Are you dumb ?

[rainslacker]

Yeah but the new consoles don't mean that the old ones stop selling. PS2 got about 1/3 of it's lifetime sales after the PS3 released. The PS4 is going to be much cheaper to manufacture when the next gen comes as well, so they'll likely be in the $99 range of gaming systems when that day comes. Next gen is going to not show as big a jump in gaming, and every generation the jump is going to become incrementally smaller.

GPU makers know this, and they know that eventually, there just won't be any reason to upgrade because there will be no visible difference. That's why things like VR and AR are becoming a thing...because it offers a new space for the chip makers to improve upon.

[FallenAngel1984]

The market has expanded quite dramatically since the 6th gen. And PS4 hasn't even had an official price cut yet to boost sales.

Its too early to make any speculation

[Death]

Price cuts are made to increase sales after they start to fall. Sony hasn't needed to cut the price to keep sales momentum going. This doesn't mean we will see more sales with a price cut then we have today. The price will be cut to increase sales back to what we have now if and when they fall.

[Relientk77]

It doesn't need to outsell anything it's still gonna sell amazingly and probably hit 125 million units or more

[MasterCornholio]

That sounds quite reasonable.

:)

[Narutone66]

One game, Gran Turismo. I haven't made the jump yet since I'm still waiting for that game. I'm sure a lot of the GT fans are doing the same.

[Rimeskeem]

25 million in less than 2 years without something like Gran Turismo or a Uncharted or even a price cut quite yet is simply a marvel for the console. It may not reach 157 million but I am certain it's hitting far above the 100 million and probably to the 125 million.

[GribbleGrunger]

Yes, 157m is unlikely but 100+m is certain at this point. There are a few factors that need to be taken into account:

Japan isn't currently performing as it has done in the past regarding consoles but that is improving slowly and who knows what will happen when games like DQ11 hit. I'm still not convinced it will ever be the market it was for the PS2 though.

Europe is possibly one region where those 'losses' from Japan could be balanced or even exceeded. Germany, France, Spain and Italy (to name some) are pushing PS4 numbers higher than the PS3 numbers of last gen and are currently matching the PS2 and in some cases exceeding the PS2.

China is an unknown quantity at the moment and whilst it probably will never be as big as the best years for consoles in Japan, it could hit high enough figures to help offset some of those losses in Japan too.

Sony have said that Wii and XB360 owners make up 40% of the current userbase of the PS4, so that's also untapped potential for growth (I'm talking market share here) beyond the performance of the PS3 which is at around 85m, which is only 15m short of 100m WITH a lower market share. That's why I'm certain the PS4 will hit at least 100m

All of this is being achieved without a price drop or established system sellers like Uncharted or GT. Services are also crucial to the PS4 and with the inclusion of PSVue, PSMusic, PSMovies and PSNow, the chances for brand recognition has grown much stronger. Shareplay also plays a roll in promotion, as does Youtube integration.

The PS4 is also likely to be on the market longer than the PS2 or the PS3, which gives it much longer to achieve higher sales.

125m is WELL within the realms of possibility and given we can't know how consoles will perform later in the cycle compared to other generations, we can't entirely discount the PS4 actually doing BETTER than the PS2.

[Haru]

It's already selling faster than PS2 and crushing the competion without even a price cut also the heavey hitter exclusive won't even come out untill next year so if you ask me I think PS4 has a 99% chance to outsell PS2 and become the best selling console ever

[jmc8888]

People also need to remember that even after a new console is released, say 2019-2020 or whenever it releases, the PS4 will still be sold and sell well for years afterwards. (not as well as if it was the lead console, but hell even the 360 is still selling pretty well).

So PS4 could still sell 5-10 million in sales (perhaps more) AFTER any PS5 hit the market.

The PS4 might still be selling until 2023-2025

[BigGamersSmallTalk]

Makes sense, the PS2 was sold quite often as a DVD player. It being the cheapest DVD player at the time. I knew numerous people who had one who didn't game at all.
The PS4 is a gaming machine, and eventually will hit a wall. We also can't forget unlike the PS2 which had basically no competition with Gamecube and original Xbox, the Xbox One and NX will offer very tough competition.

[TWB]

I dont think so.

Not only because of the things others have said, but also because one of the biggest selling points of PS2 was the ability to watch DVDs.

We bought 2 for that reason when DVDs werent yet a "must have", and partly because I wanted one in secondary place.

PS4 is still going to sell big, no doubt. Better than PS1 IMO.

[BillytheBarbarian]

Yeah, it was the only way to talk parents into getting one.

[TWB]

It was funny, because we already had a VHS/DVD combo before getting me my first PS2 (its a sweet silver one) but I never got to play that many games. Even then I think it took a month or two (or more) before I got my first own game (which was Ratchet and Clank 3)

We bought the slim to another location with the excuse of watching DVDs.

[BillytheBarbarian]

Of course not. Back then there was more competition and many PS2 games are better than current versions of the same games. Madden is not as smooth as the PS2 2005 Madden and NFL 2k5 was also available. Then there was Blitz, NFL Street, 989 NFL Football, and that's just the football games.

It goes for Hockey, WWE, Baseball, hell even Virtua Tennis was awesome on PS2. (Tennis 2k2).

The industry now is in a rut where you're stuck with one companies idea of what your favorite sport is on the video game field. Sucks ass. I'll take a PS2 over PS3 and PS4 all day.

[Darkwatchman]

ALL you brought up was sports games...there's more to gaming than sports games

[BillytheBarbarian]

Well, I used to be a sports gamer. I always had to have the newest version of listed games above. Now I can go a few years and nothing really changes. Back in the 80s going from Atari Baseball to RBI Baseball or Bases Loaded on the NES was a big deal then in the 90s Sega and EA went head to head with some of the greatest games of all time. Madden 94, NFL 94 Starring Joe Montana, World Series Baseball, Fifa Soccer, Evander Holyfield Boxing, NHLPA 93, etc... These games were all pushing the boundaries. They had to because if they didn't the other company with the better game was going to kill'em in sales.

I'll never forget playing NFL2k for the first time on the Dreamcast. There was nothing like it before it. The animations were spooky real for the first time other than Virtua Fighters and Tekken we didn't really see this much animation in sports games.

Sports are the easiest to target and point out but I could do the same with the boring Call of Duty yearly releases, Assassin's Creed year after year, I mean, I can easily go an entire generation and I don't think I would miss the Assassin's Creed series.

And look at the terrible wrestling outings. There is no competition. The N64 was probably best for the wrestling games because you had EA, THQ and Acclaim fighting for your money. The quality was top notch. WWF No Mercy is still one of the best ever.

[DrJones]

Ugh.. What boring taste in games you have. You mention N64 and the first you can think of is the wrestling games instead of Goldeneye or Ocarina of Time.

[Paleblood]

One have to take in mind that the PS2 and PS4 do not share the same market. By the time of the PS2, consoles lifecycle could hit a lot of years, there were no mobile games and other stuff. Now, the PS4 is on a different market so it would not be fair the say that.

All we know is the PS4 is a phenomenon and the amazing sales will ensure good third party support and first party games.

[jokerisalive]

Never say Never people....

[XanderZane]

It's a bit too early to make that conclusion. The PS2 sold incredibly well in all 3 markets. Right now the PS4 is selling great in Europe and USA, but in Japan it might now sell as well as the PS2 did. Also we don't know how long these systems will stay on the market. So we'll see. I think the PS4 will sell over 100 million, but not sure if it can hit the big 155 million.

[joeorc]

Its chances are actually good in a % chance to be able to acomplish this.

Reason being is three fold.

1) unlike the PS2 the consoles of today are non static, thus the software foundations are modularity based.

2) the Playstation 4 like the Playstation 3 also support unified over the internet cable TV streaming, the box is or will be a internet TV cable box with no contract needed, streaming TV no matter your region could be remote accessible as networks infrastructure grows.

So its less obsolescent along the way for certain Tasks aside from gaming, playstation Vue internet cable box right along with the PS3.

3) The system even when the new system releases will still be Quite viable as a Legacy system, because the next system will share commonality designs. Most likely open the units to remote play for the other new released system.

In other words makes more use of existing system in market to expand to room by room Gaming remote cluster compute environments for entertaininment and gaming included.

Ie : the PS4 now could be what the Vita or PSTv is to the ps4 as the PS4 could very well be to the PS5!

Remote play box for the PS5!

[Beeker]

China

[SatanicEyeJesus]

Well, congratulations to the writer, he got his 5mins of attention.

IMO this kind of predict is impossible to make. To many variables. Sometime ago i read that console market was dead. hahahaha

In the end we should not worry about PS4 x PS2 sells, but if PS4 will give us the same magical moments. I believe it will :)

[Italiano1234567]

It's selling like hotcakes and the best games have yet to come... What's it gonna sell like when all the awesome exclusives hit... Yeah yeah

[NeverHeavyMan]

Just getting close to the PS2 would be good enough in my eyes! This thing is guaranteed to outsell the original PlayStation, which is an amazing feat in and of itself. So catching, or even passing, the PS2 would be out of this world.

That said, this article is poorly written. Takes very little consideration of price, staple releases, nor the complete market shift.

[RPGrinder]

It is over selling in Europe, Selling about the same as PS2 in US, and well below in Japan and other territories.

I am not sure how it will play out.

[lastking95]

It's obvious it won't, xbox and other platforms has a bigger share of the market than it did back then.

[PrinceOfAllSaiyans]

Huh ? The Xbox brand only does well in US & UK everywhere else it's pretty much dead.

[fanboysmackdown]

Gears, you're wasting your time trying to talk logic to Sony fanboys. I agree with what you're saying. PS4 has had a great start but I don't see any chance of it catching the PS2.

[SegaGamer]

You never know, it may happen. It would be one hell of an achievement if it does. The PS2 was a monster, if any console sells better than that console so soon then it will be very impressive.

[22CobraKing]

It's way to early but it's on track. When the price drops it will sell like hot cakes.

[RJ92009]

This gen is still just beginning a lot can happen. Who knows what will happen five years from now. For me I'm loving both my ps4 and xbox one right now not my Wii u so much tho.

[Dogswithguns]

PS2 alwyas betterno matter waht...

[chikane]

its funny cause ff12hd just got announced just now .. yet another game from the ps2 era getting a big remaster for the ps4 so it really is like the ps2

[b1nary_B0SS]

CELL lives in Liverpool

5/30/2005 - Ken Kutaragi - http://www.eetimes.com/docu...
From the beginning, I wanted multiple operating systems to run on the processor simultaneously. The Cell processor has a kernel called … Level 2, which we call the guest OS layer, … for the Playstation.
We are real-time game developers, so all necessary schemes… in a multithread environment — have been taken into consideration.

9/27/2005 - Page 13 - Mark Cerny: http://pdfaiw.uspto.gov/.ai...
[0010]… Operating systems that support multithreading enable programmers to design programs whose threaded parts can execute concurrently. SPU Threads operates by regarding the SPUs in a cell as processors for threads.
[0011] Unfortunately, interoperating with SPU Threads is not an option for high-performance applications.
[0012] To overcome these problems a system referred to as SPU Runtime System (SPURS) was developed.

3/30/2013 - Part 1 - Mark Cerny: http://www.neogaf.com/forum...
The GPGPU for us is a feature that is of utmost importance… We’re trying to replicate the SPU Runtime System (SPURS) of the PS3…

11/14/2013 - Shuhei Yoshida: http://www.gamesindustry.bi...
There are a lot of hidden powers in our system. You may be familiar with GPGPU and PS4 has a lot more GPGPU processing in it, which is difficult to learn and master, similar to a Cell processor.

11/23/2014 - SCEJ: http://www.dualshockers.com...
GPU Compute - Where does this large amount of computing take place? - PlayStation 3 SPU 256KB Local Storage - PlayStation 4 Compute Unit

9/2007 - Page 7 - Mike Acton: http://webcache.googleuserc... http://www.insomniacgames.c...
What are SPU Shaders? - Shares important similarities to GPU shaders

[b1nary_B0SS]

Comment #29 is an unrelated post. Please report as off topic or disregard.

[BillytheBarbarian]

A lot of sales were from faulty ps2s as well. PS4 seems to be much better quality. So it probably won't sell as many.

[pyroxxx]

well if we look at it that way,.. install base from 360 was probably 1/3rd - 1/4rd of the sales

[mike32UK]

But... No one was talking about the 360

[kevnb]

the gaming industry is so much bigger now though, if they go 2-1 over xbox all gen they will pass the ps2.

[GamerGT]

Keep in mind the PS4 has stiffer competition this time for Playstation. Microsoft and Nintendo can still surprise also. And there is an extra $100 tacked onto the console versus the PS2 that's warranted with how much more value the PS4 has. I'd like to see PS3 surpass 100 million but that's going to take some price drops $149/$99 range and bundle with something even the kids might like to play during the holidays just to give it that final push. PS4 had a wide range of arsenal and some serious luck bouncing back from last gen. It has all the potential to surpass PS2 even if it takes longer.

[plmkoh]

Does it matter? That's like crying because you came in 2nd place whilst wiping your tears with those Benjamin Franklins.

[mananambal]

China lifted the ban on consoles so it might surpass it.

[poor_cus_of_games]

Come on so called journalist. Give me next week's lottery numbers since you know so much.

[noksucow73]

PS2 was a juggernaut! I remember hating it because it crushed my beloved Dreamcast! It was a great system though. It was amazing to see how much performance they squeezed out of that machine. God of War 2 and Shadow of the Colossus blew me away back in the day. PS4 has a long way to go before they start singing those praises. It's like calling a undefeated fighter, whos been fighting for only a year or two, the next Mike Tyson.

[spunkee311]

Bit to early to come to a conclusion like that. I get the times have changed since PS2, but we really don't know what will happen and PS4 isn't 2 years old yet.

Either way, I'm happy for Playstation's success and, specifically, the PS4's success. Especially, after the initial mis-step of the PS3.

[xetiro]

"...it needs to sell 130+ million units in just 3-4 years..."

PS2 sold 150M over 10 years life cycle. Why PS4 have to sell 130M in 3-4 years?

[Azzanation]

Whos to say the PS4 will be on the market for 10 years? It took the PS2 12 years to reach 155 million qnd its last couple of years they were practically given away.

[airforcex]

I own one; it won't outsell the PS2. The PS2 had 0 competition. A solid Japan NX release would slow things down, not to mention XB1 in the U.S. And UK. The original Wii played a big role on 360's success by neutralizing Japan for a while.

[JMyers]

The PS4 will soon have little competition too. Yes the UK and US are still strong MS markets, but Sony still lead in sales with less first party and being at a higher price. These markets are also the most price sensitive. When these changes come to the PS4 sales will increase further when MS would already have taken these steps.

The NX may not have wide appeal outside Japan. Doesn't mean that the PS4 sales will be lower, only stagnate. Remember the Wii was a novelty. The PS3 launched at $599 and ended up selling 80 million. It may have passed the 360 now. This is European and first party factor. Sony still has this on their side.

[CantBeStopped]

Apparently James can see the future. Either that or he's talking out his brown balloon knot, take your pick.

[MasterofMagnetism]

Really can't say for certain either way. Gonna largely depend on how long the PS4 will be on the market.

[Condemnedman]

Call yourselves gamers! More like accounts department workers. Sad

[JMyers]

The PS4 is Sony's longest stint without a price drop, yet it's outpacing the competition in every single market. The console also still has it's massive first party titles to drop this gen. The competition has dropped price multiple times, released a lot of brand loyalty type games and still the gap widens.

What I don't see in the comments is the impact of former Wii owners and the decline of Nintendo. Many Wii owners last gen are upgrading and they are not getting the Wii U. This is a worldwide phenomena. PS4 sales are increasing year on year too without any price drop.

Sony is nailing it in marketing these past few years. The price drop and big names first parties will no doubt further increase the sales gap. The competition already made its moves on the board yet Sonys dominance remains and still have many moves to make.

[Xbonewone32015]

So many numbers...

...who cares if it does or doesn't.

Play the games you enjoy.

[MasterCornholio]

There will always be "so many numbers".

And yes people can still enjoy games and discuss numbers.

[Xbonewone32015]

At least its entertaining watching a handful of people pluck numbers out of thin air, so certain that they are the one who is right !! :)

[leogets]

Who gives a crap.. Ps2 and ps4 on the table. Which one would u pick? Der

[Xbonewone32015]

PS4 for me.

I honestly hated most of the games on the ps2.

Jrpgs are not my thing whatsoever.

[leogets]

Exactly.. Only game i enjoyed on ps2 was tiger woods golf.. Only started playin ps3 games properly when i gamed online with cod3 then when modern warfare 4 came out i was hooked to online gaming. Ps4 all the way for me

[Artemidorus]

What a stupid article, no one can predict what will happen.

One thing I do know is, gaming as a whole is alot popular than ten years ago.

[Gwiz]

Also more ways of gaming than that era.

[Gwiz]

I highly doubt it(topping PS2 sales)It's selling pretty well but times have changed and the landscape is scattered compared to that era ,Sony should consider themselves lucky when reaching 100M.

[Picnic]

The 128 bit gen had total sales of 10 mill for Dreamcast, 155 mill PS2, 21 mill Gamecube, 24 mill Xbox equals 210 mill. Last gen had 80 millish PS3 and Xbox360, 100 mill Wii. Total 260 mill. Given tablets and smartphones and PS4 popularity, I expect about 13 milll WiiU, 60 to 80 mill Xbox One, 100 to117 mill PS4s to be sold

[angelusbrz]

it's already outselling it and the gap will the Xbox One will growing and for a matter of fact, the PS4 still hasn't a price drop, get real here...

[Xenokitten]

I think it boils down to exclusive titles. I know the PS2 had a lot of great exclusives. I haven't seen much on PS4 until this year's E3 show, and those games are still at LEAST a year or two away before release. Also the price difference, and different economic conditions, make it harder for "middle class families" to afford buying another console. I will probably buy the PS4 by the end of this year, or early next year, for Persona 5, Shenmue, and the FF7-remake. But as it stands right now, today, there's just not a good exclusive that makes me go "wow I need a PS4". A console is only as good as the games available for it :)

[Petebloodyonion]

Does it matter?

Do we get a collective achievement if it does?

[pelenow]

Early adoption this gen has been up for both PS4 and XO. A lot of this has to do with Nintendo being weaker this time and the fact that PS3 and X360 were on the market for so long. People were anxious for this gen to get underway and have been adopting faster than normal. IMO anyway

[x_RadicalAura_x]

Never say never, you pessimistic Nancy. Sony's on the top of the world right now with the PS4 as far as consoles are concerned. Stop trying to rain on their parade.

[dmonee]

When final fantasy 7 drops, the PS4 will outsell the amount of people that are on the planet

[Dreamcaster]

Why do people keep doing the math for just 5 years? They kept making & selling PS2's until 2012. That 150 million mark didn't happen in just 5 years. Those numbers are comprised over a 12 year period. Granted a huge chunk happen within the first few years but they will still sell millions late into the life cycle due to price cuts etc.

[iQuasar]

This is late to the party, I know, but I found a nice one page answer to the PS4 vs PS2 sales question.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wi...

Worldwide launch Nov. 2000. So pushing two years out from there I see 28+ million units out in the wild for PS2. I think PS4 is pretty well on track to match or exceed that by this holiday.