tehpees3 (User)

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Why a 2015 PS4 release is more likely then people think

tehpees3 | 506d ago
User blog

The world is shifting into next generation. New handhelds are already out. Nintendo have just got their console out in the US and at the time I write this it is literally less then 2 days away for Europe. But Nintendo is not the only one with rumors running around with next generation systems. The biggest rumors are coming from Microsoft. Most word of mouth, internet sources and a certain leaked document (supposedly legit) all point to a late 2013 release. The safe bet is November given Microsoft love that month. But what of Sony? When do they plan to launch realistically? According to a recent one liner by Official Playstation Magazine, it is further along then you think it is.

OPM got together a collection of PS4 rumored games. What was the most interesting part was that they claimed there was a game in development from the now closed Team Bondi. The quote reads as follows: "This one has been knocking around for a while, but the 2015 launch date may just tickle the back end of PS4’s launch window."

A launch window in 2015? When do they plan to launch this exactly? If this statement is accurate we shouldn't expect it until the end of 2014 at the very earliest. It is no secret that Sony have confessed they are last. They lost a lot of money when PS3 launched and they will want to make that money back. The "10 year plan" for PS3 is something that Sony spoke about from the very beginning. Now some have argued that it can mean 10 year support and Sony can still launch before that. The question is do they want to? You may look with a huge question mark but hold off when I say this, a 2015 release is actually very likely.

As much as people want to, they cannot look at this from a perspective of a consumer. The way Sony will be looking at it is business. They want the system to be profitable. But they also want it to have some kind of leap. There has been some debate across multiple game forums on if Sony will take the profit approach and cut the specs down, or if they won't care about their finances and make a leap despite the fact it is severely risking their business. I think they will wait it out. I think this "10 year plan" of their's is actually a plan made before they move on. If you look at this from a financial perspective, it makes a lot of sense.

As mentioned above, Sony want to milk PS3 for all it is worth. They will want to take as much money back that the cell and Blu-Ray player stole from them. But there are other problems on the table you need to consider. They are still moving around their other businesses that are making heavier losses. But perhaps the most crucial point about a new console coming out close to the next Xbox is that there is an obstacle preventing them because (very sadly) the public is just not being swayed towards it. The Vita.

Now look at this from Sony's point. Nintendo managed to get 3DS off the ground, despite this doomsday prophecy about smart phones destroying dedicated handhelds. Sony put a lot of money in Vita. They have confirmed they are moving to shrink their losses made on Vita as the next year progresses. But it won't help unless Vita catches on. But in order for them to do that, attention must be moved towards it.

This is the problem. Vita still has time to pull through. Despite what people tell you in forums, there are still plenty of chances. But it can only happen if Sony put their attention to it. And they won't just stand back and watch as it fails after a slow Christmas. Sony are better then that. Internet trolls are saying it is all over for the Vita. Not really. But the price being paid will be lack of focus on consoles.

It would be way smarter of Sony to make Vita pull through then to just forget it to speed up PS4 development. So if they put their focus on Vita next year to get it to pull through is it bad for PS4? I say no.

I know what you are thinking. Microsoft will get the jump on them again. While that is true it is also true that it doesn't matter what Microsoft do, some just won't buy the Xbox. They want Playstation. They see it as worth waiting for. The interesting thing here is, Sony would be considerably late, but it would have all their problems solved from a financial perspective. PS3 will continue to sell well into 2015. People will still want it. Then as Vita is selling their two major concerns will be dealt with. They can move on. Waiting until this late to launch could also hold Gran Turismo off and give the developers the time they constantly ask for, and Sony could have their big system seller ready.

But most of all, it gives Sony the target specs they want in the console, while also making it profitable since the cost of the parts will come down in 3 years. They can also launch it at a much more competitive price then if they were to launch it around the same time as Microsoft. It makes perfect financial sense when you look at it from Sony's view. I love Sony as much as the next guy, but they cannot keep taking losses like this. Even in their game division. There is only so much they can take. This would also show that Sony don't care about Microsoft's move and are worrying more about their own skin.

If you look at this from their view it makes great sense. A 2015 launch is actually more likely then you'd think. It isn't just about who gets the jump on who. It is about money. Sony need money to make more consoles. They can't keep up their current path of making "future proofed" hardware and make money on it. The only question is, if this was to come to pass, would you be willing to wait that long?

When all is said and done, system launches happen when the company is ready. Not when people are. And the writing is on the wall they definitely aren't ready for late next year.

iamnsuperman  +   506d ago
I think Sony has come out and said they are not going to be last to release their console this generation. So expect when Microsoft releases their console the PS4 will be before or even same day. Now when it depends when Microsoft releases their console.
jadenkorri  +   505d ago
MS proved that releasing when not ready works, so its no longer when sony releases the ps4, it will come out same times as the 720. I give a month or 2 at max, whether prior or after.
hennessey86  +   506d ago
I think
It it is possible thy the ps4 could release in 2015, Sony are in financial trouble and releasing a new console at a high cost could e a disaster for them.
TacticAce  +   506d ago
IT will be more of a disaster if they let microsoft get a 2 year jump on them, it was bad enough microsoft got one year this generation.
cgoodno  +   506d ago
Because waiting longer always solved one's money issues.

Poor excuse. Sony as a whole may be in financial trouble, but it's not because of what they've done with the PS3 or the games. It's because they thought the market was interested in overpriced TVs and the like.

If Sony is going to fix itself, it needs to fix the issues. But that doesn't mean waiting for those issues to get fixed before they go to market.

If Sony doesn't go to market at the same time as Microsoft, releasing a year later isn't going to do them any good when Microsoft will make sure that every multiplatform game is required to be of similar quality or they won't put it out on their platform(s). Kind of the same way they currently are very picky about allowing former PS/Wii exclusives from making it onto their platform.
rainslacker  +   505d ago
Your last point is something that a lot of people overlook in today's generation. Microsoft actually does have a policy that games on their system cannot be drastically better on another platform.

The reason there are not that many 3rd party exclusives anymore is because the cost of game production has gotten so high. There is no clear dominate console like with the PS2. Because of this, games are made to the largest audience possible, which is why almost every 3rd party game(in the western market) has been multi-plat.

There's really no point in Sony making a drastically better machine spec wise, because it would go underutilized by 95% of the games out there.

If I had to guess at a time frame, I'd say it would be late 2013 to mid 2014. This is because most announced games are coming out before then. Any really big title we would have heard about already, so it would be plausible that we haven't heard announcements because future games are for a new unannounced system.
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JellyJelly  +   503d ago
"Your last point is something that a lot of people overlook in today's generation. Microsoft actually does have a policy that games on their system cannot be drastically better on another platform."

In80% of the cases multiplatform games are better on the 360 than on the PS3. I think it has more to do with hardware difficulties for developers than policies from MS.
cgoodno  +   503d ago
***In80% of the cases multiplatform games are better on the 360 than on the PS3. I think it has more to do with hardware difficulties for developers than policies from MS.***

Not necessarily hardware difficulties so much as many engines are still tailored towards utilizing PC-similar architectures. It is still the fault of the devs for the discrepancies in 99% of the cases (either when PS3 looks better or 360 looks better) but it tends to come down to have small those differences are and if they are worth them going in and fixing those by hand or leaving them as is. In 90% of those cases, the discrepancies are only noticeable unless you sit there and analyze the two side-by-side but are otherwise both similar in look and performance and do not affect the user experience in any noticeable manner, if at all.
EffectO  +   506d ago
If Sony plans to release PS4 in 2015 then they should just scrap PS4 and go third party like Sega.

PS3 hardware and software sales are tanking hard(not just PS3,whole gaming industry has gone to shit but this is Sony topic).This is not 2005 anymore consumers have way too much (quality)choices now.

"Nintendo managed to get 3DS off the ground"
And yet its 2012 BF numbers are 50% down YOY.

2013 will be a slaughterhouse.
mushroomwig  +   506d ago
Hardware and software are above that of the 360, the PS3 has a bigger market share and doing very well. Tanking hard? Not even close, sorry.
cgoodno  +   506d ago
Ugh... hardware and software sales for the PS3 are far from tanking... Unless by tanking you mean still making a profit on par with the competition.

The reduction in software and hardware sales are common this late in the generation. There are fewer games being developed, less of a market to reach with the hardware. It's not "tanking" just following the standard trend as new IPs are being held off on purpose to make a "big start" with the upcoming next generation. But, what is being sold is making a profit and keeping all companies going as they advance their own platforms this gen and next gen.
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Vickistheman  +   506d ago
PS4 will come out holiday 2014 at the absolute latest.

Sony will release the PS4 pretty close to the next xbox.

Sony and MS will milk their current gen consoles as much as possible.
Hufandpuf  +   506d ago
2014 at the latest? please tell me what the earliest is because it's not in 2013.
jessupj  +   506d ago
I really hope not.

I'd really like to see what would happen if the 720 and PS4 released at the same time.
HalfNerdHalfAmazing  +   506d ago
I got a feeling both new consoles will be out by 2015
mayberry  +   505d ago
I agree with your 2015 release date for both boxes! even if ms releases first, the gaming public will not go in droves to the new box. It has been proven that ms's large market share has alot to do with, not only releasing first, but seemingly being cheaper(price wise), coupled with the sub-par exclusive devotion in it second half of life, and ms not addressing that at all, I think its new box will follow suit. Moving on to its reliability concerns during development and the 360's failure rate is leaving people skeptical imho.
Sony has every reason to release first, but they dont have to in my opinon, they have proven to me that they will satify my gaming hobby needs.
The_Infected  +   506d ago
It's not going to be 2015 I guarantee you're wrong. I'd say early 2014 would be the latest but I'm sure it will be the Holiday 2013.
MrBeatdown  +   506d ago
There's no way 2015 is happening.

Instead of taking losses on new consoles sold, they are going to start two years behind, against a system that has two years worth of exclusives, and a bigger install base that developers will choose to cater to. What will Sony have to show for that delay? Money saved? But how much are they losing by not even competing for two years? Launching in 2015 just means they're late to the party, and playing catch up for the next five or six years. Again.

They might be saving money per console sold, but they are going to start out so far behind in install base, and so far behind in exclusives, that it's seriously going to hurt their potential next gen. PS3 business will hurt too. More attention will be paid to the new stuff both by devs and gamers. Sony can try to milk the PS3, but Microsoft is going to be going after PS3 owners either way. Sony has to either offer the PS4 to keep them from jumping ship.

And holding off on PS4 doesn't help the Vita... it could hurt it. The PS4 can help the Vita. PS3 has its limits. There is only so much Sony can patch into the PS3. PS3 doesn't even show Vita friends online now. That ain't helping the Vita. PS4 likely will. Hell, we probably won't just get cross-game chat... we'll get cross-platform chat. We'll probably get better remote play. Things like that can help the Vita.

And what about their games? There isn't much left to see this generation from Uncharted, Killzone, Infamous, and MotorStorm. Sure, they are great games, and they could probably churn out more sequels, but they won't have anywhere near the wow factor they would have if they were PS4 year one games. Uncharted 4 could be a huge showcase for the next generation, and specifically the PS4. Or it could be just another Uncharted to hold us over that dries out the franchise, and gets overlooked when Assassin's Creed 5 or Fallout 4 shows up looking like the greatest thing since sliced bread on the next Xbox.

If 2015 is their plan, they are planning to hand the next generation to Microsoft. Whether Sony can or can't afford to, they need to find a way to make 2013, or at worst, 2014 work.

I don't expect them to wait past 2013 if that's when the next Xbox releases. They've got a price tag around $400, or even $500 for a high end model to work with. I don't know what it costs Sony to sell a PS3, but I'd imagine they've got at least $250 worth of breathing room that can be devoted almost entirely to additional power. They've got a slew of devs and great IPs, they've got a clear path to put PSN on par with Live feature-wise, and they've got a market that's interested. I'd be surprised it they can't make it work, and be incredibly competitive.
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Flatbattery  +   505d ago
2015 will be way too late considering it'll be well into the Wii U life cycle and 18 months to 2 years past the suspected NextBox release. I would like to assume that Sony aren't that stupid, surely. Also consider that whatever PS4 turns out to be it's not likely to be leaps and bounds above the competition. Like you said, they are in financial difficulties, they can't afford to take huge risks on pricing.

As for the Vita....Well! I blame the gaming media for it's problems in the market. The price is good, the specs are great, there are a multitude of games for it despite us all being told otherwise. Think about it this way, the 3DS was doing poorly until the price drop, at which point all and sundry were touting it as the second coming and should be bought no matter what and hey presto....Sales!. The Vita is announced with a price that all seem to agree was a nice surprise and the hype starts, shortly prior to release nearly all media outlets start the relentless Vita is doomed/DOA/has no games/too expensive articles and has rarely ceased..........And many wonder why it won't sell in high numbers. I would have been inclined to blame the Sony marketing but here in the UK it seems to me that the 3DS and Vita have both suffered from lacklustre campaigns.
Kennytaur  +   505d ago
I believe it'll be out before Q4 of 2014.
Megaton  +   505d ago
Sony may as well get out of the hardware business if they're even considering a 2015 launch.
Valenka  +   505d ago
I have to agree. While I'm certainly ill-prepared for the next generation (or current if you consider the Wii U the next generation) I cannot deny that 2015 is way too long for a new console to be released. If anything, I'd hazard a guess sometime between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014.
dazzrazz  +   505d ago
There will be no PS4 !!! Number 4 is extremely unlucky in Japanese culture.
Pillsbury1  +   505d ago
They can release it whenever they want still day 1.
Elenazabela   505d ago | Spam
taquito  +   505d ago
both ms and sony have already waited too long

5 years is the absolute MAX a console should go without a successor

games on ps3/360 look last gen, they perform awful in many cases, screen tear, jaggies, pop-in, low player counts, mandatory installs, terrible connectivity, long load times, everything about gaming on ps3/360 feels last gen when you also game on pc

its just an inferior experience all the way around, they need new, fresh consoles, with new fresh ip's
Lvl_up_gamer  +   504d ago
I think 2015 is too late.

MS will release the 720 during holiday season 2013 and Sony will release 2014 holiday season.

A 720 1 year head start is not a big deal if Sony doesn't release a $600 beast that is hard to develop for.

We have to remember here that Sony fell behind MS not because of the 1 year head start. It was because of the $600 price tag with a small game selection at launch.

Had the PS3 been priced around $400 and had a couple more games available at launch, the PS3 would have only taken 2 years to over take the 360 instead of being neck and neck with the 360 6 years later.

I think Sony is in a great position to release holiday season 2014 IF they keep the price low, easy to develop on and launch with a larger game library.

Sony have plenty of AAA games coming out till Holiday 2014 to tie us gamers over.

The Last of Us.
Dust 514
Beyond
The Last Guardian

Etc.
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Dark5tar1  +   504d ago
If Sony sticks to the 10 year plan like they did with the PS2, Microsoft will probably easily take advantage of that with their new system. 2015 would be WAY too late for Sony to launch the PS4, especially at this time with their financial woes. I would expect Late 2013-2014 launch.
phantomexe  +   504d ago
I think sony and ms will drop consuls in 2013 but like i've said 100 times before there not going be much more powerful then there current generation. It's all about ram this time.

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