End of video games as we know it?
Game development costs are increasing
In this first graph from ArsTechnica, the left hand side represents the average amount of people working on a game. This figure has been increasing less than exponentially. This isn't really the frightening bit. The frightening bit is shown in the text in the x axis, you will realise that since the 16 bit era, cost of making a game has gone from an average of $0.05 million minimum, to an average of $17 million minimum, so its become at least 340 TIMES more expensive to make games since then !!
This second graph just shows game development costs (previous showed both gaming development costs and number of people working on them). Data is from ArsTechnica If this graph is even 50% accurate (i.e if 50% was the margin of error), then it would mean the average cost of making a next gen game in 2012 would be $25 million minimum, if its 100% accurate then the average cost of making a game in 2012 would be $50 million. Lets get straight to the point. This seems unsustainable. Lets make a new word up, call it "market entry figure". It represents an average developers view, on what the user base of a video game console should be before they start developing/making games on that console. This "market entry figure" has surely been increasing every generation. By Human nature, if something is risky, you are less likely to do it. Hence I speculate the following:
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