"Everyone knows that the battle between Blu-ray and HD DVD is the most boring battle since VHS and Beta, and won't be won by either format, but will instead be won by downloads direct to hard disks."
Bluray is killing HD-DVD.
It would be a war if HD-DVD even struck back once, but.. getting outsold 9:1 isn't really.. a war anymore.
I think Most Bluray people are getting their favorite movies on Bluray, and buying regular/downloading HD-DVD rips.
Blu-ray isn't outselling HD-DVD by 9:1, but given PS3's install base it should be outselling HD-DVD by more than 2:1 or 3:1 yet isn't. Fact is that consumers aren't lining up for either format & that includes me. Question Sony & Toshiba need to be asking themselves is whether or not there are enough consumers willing to pay a 150-percent premium for HD content. Personally, I'm taking my DVD library digital at just over 1/2 the resolution of DVD & have yet to encounter an "OMG this looks so f*cking horrible I can't watch moment" on my 42-inch 720P DLP.
Inherently a luxury technology isn't going to automatically be consumed by the soccer mom who has no idea what hdmi is, let alone a 500 dollar bluray player.
I am sick of the stupid ass excuse that 'Well, neither format is beating DVD.' Do you honestly think that Disney/Sony and their combined intelligence/billion dollar companies ivy leauge educated cfo/ceo/vp didn't see that one coming?
Bluray is the #1 High Definition format. Whether or not that means that its going to beat 9 dollar dvd's has yet to be seen. Logically, no. Bluray's 19.99+Discs plus expensive players aren't going to beat out DVDs instantly, but the same exact argument was here with the introduction of the DVD technology.
HD-Disc technology is going to be around for a while until I can download that 24gig+ HD movie at home with equal or BETTER compression. Until those number of consumers can match a disc media, Bluray will be here to stay, but I doubt it will be as long of a run as DVD.
9:1 was exaggerating. There is no 'war' right now.
That's okay on the download thing. I'd rather keep my bandwith for gaming, surfing, and music if I can help it.
Actually Blu-Ray is winning 9:1 in Japan and between 3:1 to 5:1 in Europe. The US is the only place where the war is as close as 2:1. I think HD-DVD supporters conveniently forget that fact every time.
Every Nielsen number you see is only looking at US figures.
Thing is the nielsen ratings aren't even that correct since they leave out Wal-mart which recently seems to be doing 50/50 splits of HD and BD media now and is now stocking HDA3' and the new venture players. Wal-mart's here seem to sell only one BD player(the PS3). While they still sell 2 HD stand alones and the 360 add on.
I'm not sure what Wal-marts HD/BD market share is, but it's DVD market share is 40%.
Not one person has died over a disc format. Both of which will be around for years to come.
They will both be around but one of the formats will actually still be making NEW movies in that format.
"but will instead be won by downloads direct to hard disks"
I can't wait to download 25GB+ of data over my average 2MB broadband connection...
Thanks, but I'd rather buy a disc so I take films around to my friend's places, instead of the entire sodding machine.
yeah. where i live the most speed you can get is 4MB. i've got a 2MB connection that is costing me as much as a 10MB connection anywhere else.
i've got a ps3 thats why i'm cheering blue ray all the way. like i'm going to wait 3 days to watch a movie. i'd rather waste 10mintues of my life, go to my local video store and buy a high def movie. as for downloading movies......you can check with me again in 3-4 years.
But how much of that 25GB+ isn't actually the movie? Not to mention that a 3.5-inch hard drive can hold a half dozen HD movies & is even pocketable whereas a half dozen Blu-ray or HD-DVD clamshells are not.
Even 10 Gig files would tie up my broadband for too long.
I rent blu-rays from an online company and I far prefer their service to a download service and I suspect it's cheaper too.
I also watch HD movies through my TV/satellite provider and I find it hard to keep up with HD movies to watch sometimes.
You guys do realize 28 and 100mb dl speeds are coming this yr from AT&T and Comcast.
The most we'll wait is maybe 12 months here before it deploys fully.
Not to mention Verizon and AT&T are wanting to do VOD HD content directly to your home bypassing cable and dish providers.
You know I can put about 5 BD movies on my portable Toshiba 200GB HDD and it takes up less space then 3 BD cases. So, you can leave your computer at home. I do it all the time.
"You guys do realize 28 and 100mb dl speeds are coming this yr from AT&T and Comcast."
No, and I don't give a damn because,
1) I don't live in America
2) I don't live in America
3) I don't live in America
People like you must start realising that there are other countries outside of your own and that a considerable number of these are either not broadband enabled or are restricted to speeds of only 1MB.
THAT is why Bluray is important and why DD films will not impact sales of discs any time soon (and by soon, I mean 10 or 20 years)
The war is almost over. However, two companies can screw customers up (again) and keep the whole thing running and the consumer confused, this 2 companies are Warner and Microsoft.
An awful lot of people on this site are under the incorrect impression that Blu-ray has won and they consistently state their >opinion< of this as 'fact' when it is actually only an >opinion< and, on this site, that opinion is usually fueled by their allegance to the PS3 rather than any actual advantage offered by the format. For these people, consider the following:
1. The install base for HD DVD doubled in the month leading up to Christmas and a large chunk of those new players were not active until Christmas day and the abundant Blu-ray BOGO sales won't last forever.
2. The gamer effect: As it is, gamers that bought the PS3 at $600 don't all buy Blu-ray discs. Gamers that waited for the PS3 to be $500 are less likely to buy Blu-ray discs than the early adoptors. Gamers that waited for the PS3 to be $400 are even less likely to buy Blu-ray discs. My point is that the trojan effect of the PS3 is diminishing as it gets cheaper. As the PS3 gets cheaper, more and more people are buying it because they want to play games, not movies. Early adoptors justified the expense of the PS3 with it's ability to play Blu-ray, a factor that is less and less important each day to new PS3 owners. Gamers that are price conscious are less and less likely to buy the more expensive high def media.
3. The gamer effect part 2: Inversely, gamers that waited to buy the HD DVD add-on are 100% guaranteed to buy HD DVD discs. Any gamer that buys the HD DVD add-on regardless of how inexpensive it is or how inexpensive they waited for it to become is 100% guaranteed to buy HD DVD discs. In this way the trojan effect of the PS3 will be further diminished as time goes on. More and more 360 gamers will be tempted into buying an HD DVD add-on as it gets cheaper. Every gamer that buys an HD DVD add-on is 100% guaranteed to buy HD DVD discs. As the HD DVD add-on gets cheaper, more gamers will consider buying it. As time goes on, the percentage of gamers that are interested in HD media on either the PS3 or the 360 will balance.
4. The consumer effect: The early adoptors who are less likely to be swayed by price have already made their purchase. The people left who haven't bought into a format are more price conscious. With each and every day that passes, price is becoming a more and more important factor. HD DVD holds 15 GB per layer vs 25Gb on Blu-ray but this design difference is there to leverage the massive infrastructure of DVD. A difference which means HD DVD players will always be cheaper to manufacture and HD DVD discs will always be cheaper to print.
5. The consumer effect part 2: Blu-ray early adoptors mostly paid between $350-$600 for their player. HD DVD early adoptors mostly paid between $200-$500 for their player. In the next six months we will likely find Blu-ray players in the $200-$250 range and HD DVD players in the $100-$150 range. A Blu-ray owner who paid $350-$600 has a good chance of going format neutral on a $100-$150 HD DVD player. An HD DVD owner who paid $200-$500 is much less likely to do the same on a $200-$250 Blu-ray player.
They just need the format war to take another year or so, so they can introduce their download service on the "new, faster" broadband connections.
He does make a pretty good point. IMO
Put it this way:
I buy a 1TB hard drive to store my downloaded HD movies on. After I've spent years downloading and build up a library, my hard disk dies...
Hmmm... I think I'd rather have to only replace one movie if the disc gets scratched up, as opposed to replacing my entire library if/when my hard drive snuffs it.
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