"The Secret Formula That All Of Gaming Rests Upon" or "Why Wii U Will Win"

In ten years of writing about the video games industry, I feel this is my best article. In it, I discuss the pattern that has emerged after seven generations of gaming and why, because of it, Nintendo has the best strategy for the eighth.

[Shok]

I FEEL that that Wii U will win. It's [most-likely] going to be the weakest console of next-gen, and history shows that the weakest console always wins (PS1, PS2, Wii)

And it's going to have a head-start over the NextBox and PS4, which will give it an obvious advantage especially since it will price-drop before the other systems.

[theonlylolking]

The PS1 and PS2 were still close to the most powerful console. So those are not justifiable examples. The wii however is xbox 1 powerful in a gen where consoles are many times more powerful than the last gen.

[Computersaysno]

Nintendo fanboy says nintendo will win. Not without a well developed dedicated online service, quality third party titles and more appeal to the core gamer. Not for me. By launching first they have also given away their hardware and concept strategy to their competitors allowing then time to also adjust their next machines to directly assault Wii U. A lot of wii' success was that there was nothing else on the market and the response and acceptance of it by the rivals was sluggish, whereas this time they can see it before they have to launch...

I think that Wii U is at serious risk of getting left behind if Nintendo do nothing to enhance their social connectivity and experience online. The kids that might have loved wii 5 years ago will be teenagers now or soon inside the next cycle. This is how nintendo were locked out after the SNES, SNES brought in the newest gamers, and they grew up, became teens, and playstation stole them away with a more mature content catalogue. They graduated up from their youth gaming. I believe it could easily happen again if Microsoft and Sony nail their online networks for a new generation and Nintendo will miss the boat completely. These kids want a facebook networked social experience of consoles when they hit their teens, not a sealed off isolated world that wii is, fine for the time but not good enough to keep the generation of kids and young families it won over for another 5 years

[kramun]

@Computersaysno

Even if those kids, as you say, grow up and move onto a Sony or Microsoft console, there are more kids to take their place, millions of them.

This is a short sighted view anyway, the wii is popular with families because it allows the whole family to be involved. Lack of online social networking has not detracted from it being a social experience, and I doubt the majority of wii owners care about the lack of it.

[Skip_Bayless]

Actually Shok is wrong on all three claims.

PS1 and N64 both had their strong points on the hardware side. PS1 had an huge advantage in disc space and the 64 processor was stronger but the cartridge couldn't hold that much data.

Dreamcast was the weakest last generation.

Wii is strongest because it's not a current generation console. Wii is last gen. It's 2nd place behind PS2.

WiiU is last place right now with 0 units sold this generation.

[Computersaysno]

Sure there are always more kids and more families, but Nintendo should be targeting the audience it currently holds as much as another generation of youngsters.

I thought this was blindingly obvious my point when i referenced SNES and then playstation eras? Playstation targeted the SNES and Genesis era gamers and as a result won pretty much all of them while Nintendo still tried to make just a newer machine without addressing the fact most of their audience had aged, grown up and so and it failed. They lost that audience completely, and have not regained it, now the 30 something crowd bashing away on PS3 and 360.

Its a LONG sighted view because whereas Wii made money on the hardware and be damned with the poor software sales and attach rate, Wii U will cost more and Nintendo will not be raking it in on hardware. Nintendo admit this. They will not have the cheapo console option. They have to target the machine to a userbase that will buy games and that means core gamers.

So saying the majority of families couldn't or wouldn't care less about a good online network is actually the short sighted viewpoint you have kramun...... if Nintendo want to survive and retain much of their current userbase.

Lets price a console to be a core gamers console at least as much as the other core consoles, and then pitch that to core gamers who want a good online network when we don't have one? Or pitch it as a full priced console at families who do not have the cash for it? One way or the other this could be a major fail.

360 and PS3 evolved massively and are now entertainment hubs and incorporate family experiences. Wii just didn't evolve and Nintendo just didn't learn again. Which is why the sales of PS3 and 360 are still rocketing along and wii's are failing.....

What has Nintendo actually shown from Wii U that will mean it can enter the marketplace as probably the most expensive console and then beat up 360 and PS3 which most core gamers already own? I feel there is gonna be a HUGE ? over Wii U, who is it really gonna offer value to (besides nintendo fanboys) if its the most expensive and the least developed as a core machine.

[stragomccloud]

Actually the Gamecube was a lot more powerful than the PS2. However, with the lead console always being the PS2, this was seldom noticeable.

http://cube.ign.com/article...

[ChickeyCantor]

"brought in the newest gamers, and they grew up, became teens, and playstation stole them away with a more mature content catalogue."

This is so true,
The only reason I'm playing GTA is because I can do a hooker. I'm mature you see!

/s

[Computersaysno]

I think it is completely undeniable that PlayStation was the first console to comprehensively cater for a more mature gaming audience that had typically grown up with Nintendo and Segas. I count myself as one of the many millions in this category, Playstation was right there, at the perfect time to take advantage of this audience looking to move on and upwards from Mario and Sonics.

Grand theft auto was also one of the first mainstream massive selling games, really huge games that incorporated adult content. Some had gone before like Resident Evil, but GTA really did help pave the way for the CODs and Gears of this world, 18+ rated games that sell in vast numbers. Nintendo had very little contribution to this phenomenon, if nintendo had their way everyone would still only be playing Mario and Zelda.

We see an online culture developing for youths and teens that means you will HAVE to incorporate a quality online network for your machine or you will be history when it comes to the core gamer market. The core gamer market is the one that is gonna pay $400+ for Wii u on launch, not casuals and families.

In other words, who exactly is gonna pay $400+ at launch for a console such as Wii U without mature content titles and advanced online gaming that drives the core industry?

Nintendo nuts, and thats it.

[dark-hollow]

You what nintendos problem???
Little to no third party support+weak online+ outdated hardware.

Imagine if the wii had hardware and online service on par with the 360 and the ps3 and the same third party games.
Lots of great games are missing on the wii!
Bioshock and skyrim and gta and mirror edge and TONS TONS more!!
If nintendo had those games and a great online service then it have a chance to outsold the ps2!!! Their exclusives are second to none but the need third party support too!!
Hell it might top off the ps3 as my faviorite system this gen, but alas!

[DA_SHREDDER]

Their exclusives are second to some. They've yet to prove they know anything about online gaming. If they did I would imagine Nintendo could be even bigger than it is now. Imagine if Metroid was an online shooter? Or if Zelda was an MMO. The devs at nintendo always using old tech, and fail as much as they are critically acclaimed. They need to grow up as much as they need to be a kids toy. I'm a Nintendo fan since the first NES, but don't ever count out 3rd party support. Sony came out of nowhere with these games that are ridiculously good and only on their platform. Microsoft is a testament to what I'm saying. They lived off of third party support after Halo. Look what happened to Sega. Anything can happen. Shareholders and CEO's are the ones screwing everything up and holding generations of games back. Miyamoto, KB, Kojima, those are the people who need to have more say so, but they can only go so far when the big wigs want to cut cost, they cut cost. Money is and always be the achilles heel of console gaming.

[metsgaming]

Plus the fact they dont create any new ips, this is there biggest problem imo

[juegosmajicos]

@metsb:

Nintendo creates new IPs all the time, actually:
http://www.nintendoenthusia...

[EvilTwin]

If the Wii's graphical horsepower was on par with the 360, it wouldn't have launched at $250, undercutting the competition and paving the way for its success.

There are glaring holes in the Wii (Nintendo certainly didn't do themselves any favors with friend codes or its arbitrary WiiWare size restrictions), but commensurate power of it was never the point, which is linked to why third parties never really embraced it.

[B1663r]

The WiiU is not a next-gen console. It is a this-gen-point-five console. It is designed to keep Nintendo competitive for the next 3-4 years before the NextBox and the PS4 are launched.

[yabhero]

I'm nit sure how you can pass judgement on that since we don't officially know anything about WiiU except what it and it's controllers look like... For all we know it could get a hardware update before September next year and end up being 6 times more powerful than PS3 and on par or ahead of other next gens... See we don't know anything yet...

[sulaymanqazi]

ur just an idiot

[sulaymanqazi]

thats soo not true. is the 3DS, a gen point 5? NO! its an all new gen. same with the WII U. im sorry but your just an idiot...

[Titanz]

Isn't the PS3 more powerful than the Xbox 360, and multiplatform games sell just as well on both hardware platforms?

The Wii U will have; HD visuals, a better online service (no friendcodes), BC with Wii accessories and software, and Nintendo exclusives in HD.

It'll take more than, "Graphics" for the 3rd party developers to ignore Nintendo this time around.

[Sharingan_no_Kakashi]

If winning is directly related to sales then yea Nintendo could be the potential winner. Many people called the ps3 a trojan horse for blu ray and 3d but the wii was a trojan horse as well. It broke into the casual market and created new gamers. Those gamers will almost definitely want to upgrade to the wii U by name brand alone. And I feel the wii you will be more of a core system. Heck I might even buy it (prolly not).

But if winning is related to games then it's Sony. And it'll always be Sony. It'll be a sad year for gaming the year SONY doesn't have a huge line up of games. Both new and classic. Plus a free and ever evolving online component. Sony's name is still highly regarded amongst casuals as well and if it releases at the right price with the right games they can definitely take their spot back.

I'm trying to find something nice to say about MS. They came in second last gen and will prolly be third this gen (but by a narrow margin). Their online platform is still far better known and is arguably the best of three. But with the way they're going now I can't see them being first in any relevant field. They won't beat Nintendo in sales. They won't beat Sony with their game line up. They'll prolly still be the go-to system for online multiplayer like Cod (which will relate to console sales in a big way). But they need to cater to the core in more ways than that. They need an identity other than the Chief. The Gears story has ended. And COD isn't an exclusive. They need to give gamers some more games that will potentially be regarded as classics. Because in all honesty sales for next gen will almost certainly be split evenly between the three. Which means to stand out they need a game line up which can compete with Sony and Nintendo.

[cyguration]

Third place this gen?

Uhh right...I guess we're just ignoring sales and online market domination then. Okay.

[AWBrawler]

yep yep history and speaking of history.. only 1 company in history lead 3 console generations.

so any bets on who that is or how many disagrees i get for stating that fact?

[JBSleek]

I'm not going to disagree or agree but you can't make such an assumption when they are the only ones to bring forward their plans for the eighth generation.

What I do like about the Wii-U is it appeals to everyone and it is backward compatible with the Wii and it's accessories which is a big key.

High-Def Graphics+Nintendo Games+ Online Services+ Support of Devs= Success

[DNAbro]

I think the main thing that will determine if the Wii U will win is online. Nintendo HAS to get with the program.

[cyguration]

Not really. The 15 and older crowd want online but the kiddies and family-gamers don't need it.

Think about it, the Wii won this gen no matter how you cut the custard, sales, market dominance and install base and it did it without a strong online component.

If Nintendo wants some core gamers they'll probably tack on a decent online service but if they still want those casual gamers then they'll stick to their guns the way they did with the Wii.

[Micro_Sony]

"The Secret Formula That All Of Gaming Rests Upon"

Sugar, Spice and everything nice.

[ForROME]

NOT!

[Khordchange]

It's something new that we haven't really seen before in a true gaming device, people will eat it up. I thought kinect was stupid yet that sold a bunch, I thought the wii was meh yet that sold a bunch, I though the wii Fit was stupid yet that sold a bunch, ect.... Something new from a controller standpoint will always keep people interested in your product

[SoapShoes]

So what does that say for the PS2 or Dreamcast? Dreamcast had a new twist on the controller standpoint with a unique memory card called the UMV while the PS2 had pretty much the same design as the first Playstation.

I think you are correct but it is not always the case and people aren't going to like it if you keep changing things just for the sake of being different. Being different doesn't always equate to having a good controller.

I personally think they're just doing what they're doing with the Wii U because they want to tap into the tablet craze, but I don't think it'll work. For 1 it doesn't do anything if it's not connected to the console and it really doesn't do much of what a tablet does.

[cyguration]

The market is big enough for Nintendo to tap it anyway they like...from in front, from behind, from the side, from on top or from the bottom. Nintendo taps the market. Any. Way. They. Like.

Wii U could be a big hit just because it is different and that was one of the main selling points of the Wii in combination with its price. There are enough casual gamers to get duped into buying a Wii U even if the tablet doesn't do anything else other than game.

[MidnytRain]

"Why Wii U Will Win"

Try saying that ten times fast. o_0

[urwifeminder]

This will be the first nintendo i owned since 64 really looks intresting.

[WildStyles]

The fact that some folks are already trying to predict whether this system is going to "win" is ridiculous. From the posters who already have it in their heads that Nintendo will stay on top all the way to the haters. If this gen taught us one thing, it's that anything can happen.

If anything, people should hope that Nintendo gets third party support and keeps it. That's the main thing any Nintendo fan should worry about instead of trivial crap like this. Nintendo is notorious for their droughts.

[ozstar]

Yea, so i suppose we can all forget about the 7 months MS spent doing nothing while waiting for the release of GOW3.
Every console company leaves droughts, and its happening more frequently now simply because everyone wants to catch the Christmas Rush period.

Honestly, Nintendo are the only company fully capable of singlehandedly supporting their consoles, not that they should have to.

[juegosmajicos]

Well, you have to keep in mind that the article is not taking so much about the winning, but about the mechanisms to win.

In the case of WiiU, Nintendo has been mastering both traditional tenets of 3D gaming AND motion/touch controls. Not only that, but the increased power of the WiiU is going to allow Nintendo to push presentation and modern design conventions as far as, if not beyond, what any competition already does.

Sony and Microsoft barely started with Move and Kinect and well, they don't have proof of mastery over them (like Nintendo has with Skyward Sword), which implies that their next generation is going to be defined once again by power which, according to this article, will result in boredom.

What the article argues is that, if Sony and Microsoft don't show genuinely compelling innovation for the next generation, then they will lose to Nintendo's WiiU.

Now personally I don't know if his thesis is complete, but I do feel like it is the "most complete" thesis I've heard about the dynamics of video game generations and gamer interest.

[stragomccloud]

Well said, good sir.

[unicron7]

Boredom? How so, the best games I played this generation were on HD consoles and were fun due to the tech/power they had available to them. Open worlds like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, great character models, Gears of War, God of War, Killzone 3, Uncharted 3. All of which were made possible by power, and not some motion controller gimmick. I see other companies evolving....while Nintendo just can't seem to catch up. They'll release a weak console with a controller gimmick like they did back in 2006. And the same pop-culture gamers will buy this crud again. Once they are done with their "toy" however, they'll be selling them on craigslist left and right.

[cyguration]

LOL Unicron 7 proves your boredom point.

Not every gamer is a 14 year old dude-bro brat and I can see how the boredom factor comes into the argument when discussing raw power over hardware innovation.

However, my counterpoint would be that horsepower doesn't necessitate boring gameplay mechanics. Look at games like Portal and STALKER, utilizing tried and true genres to offer different kinds of experiences as opposed to trying to show off the latest and greatest in graphics technology.

I think MS and Sony will have problems no matter what the tech or hardware is like if they continue to promote hand-holding, boring games like Gears, Killzone, God of War and Uncharted -- great games, no doubt, but they cater mostly to the dude-bro audience and in result, become boring to all other markets.

[imbrawler]

why do people say the wii u is this gen when they don't even know the specs

[unicron7]

because they have yet to show anything on it that screams "This is next gen!!". It's slightly more powerful than current gen systems. I mean heck, the majority of it's launch titles are going to be on the PS3 and 360, with little to no changes between the versions. That is sad.

[nevin1]

@Shok

"and history shows that the weakest console always wins (PS1, PS2, Wii)"

What an insult. The PS1/PS2 wasn't a gen behind its competetion. and the PS1/PS2 because it was supportive by its library of GAMES.

[SoapShoes]

Not to mention the PS1/PS2 were considered the most powerful when they came out. PS1 > Saturn. PS2 > Dreamcast. It wasn't until a year later with Nintendo's offerings that it was out muscled.

[cyguration]

Saturn was waaaaaay more powerful than the PS1. Do some research homey.

Saturn had three core processors, PS1 only had one. Saturn also ran their games much, much faster than the PSX.

[Moerdigan]

please nintendo. change up teh lineup a bit. you need more than mario, Zelda, and kart on WiiU.

Pikmin is good, but give starfox, and Fzero come spotlight too.

and bring back Metroid Prime

[stragomccloud]

Starfox and F-Zero totally need to come back!

[KILLERAPP]

We have yet to see MS and Sony console and they say Nintendo will win again. Is the wait and see card...

[AWBrawler]

too soon to call wait till at least E3

[MasterCornholio]

Im still not convinced on the controller plus it seems very expensive to me. I hope Nintendo is more friendly to 3RD parties because they have extremely harsh policies with them.

XperiaRay

[unicron7]

They are charging premium prices on old tech. It's pretty much a console from this gen with a gimmick controller. They are trying to repeat what happened with the Wii this upcoming generation, and I honestly hope they don't succeed. I had enough gimmicks this generation....hopefully next gen we'll actually get back to, ya know, gaming.

[EvilTwin]

Heckuva response to this one, Menashe! And there should be: this is an intriguing article.

[CaptainN]

This was a good article !

[jacksheen0000]

Nintendo is not going to WIN! They just don't have enough resources to hang with M$ and Sony. Additionally, the core gaming market is a tough market to tackle, so it's not going to be easy. That being said, Nintendo is going to have to spend a lot of money in online research & development, advertising, learning how to use professional 3d application tool such as unreal engines, and of course create new AAA titles. So that leave me to believe that Nintendo staff $ workers are going to be completely over overwhelm with work when the Wii U enters the market.
M$ & Sony on the other hand already have a huge head start in the core gaming market, so it going to be a breeze.

Nuff said.

[unicron7]

I hope they don't. They should be ashamed of what they showcased thus far of the device. A little bit more powerful than current consoles...a little bit. Might as well say it is a current gen console. I hope they are not rewarded by offering old tech for premium prices. Hey Nintendo, do some R&D like the other guys for once. Release a quality system that's with the times that has evolved. If Microsoft or Sony take the cheap route next gen(with current processing power) I will be highly pissed off. I want tech to push forth, not stay in the past. That controller they are showing is not new tech, it's another gimmick.

[ChickeyCantor]

"Hey Nintendo, do some R&D like the other guys for once."

I don't think you understand where those billions go to.

" That controller they are showing is not new tech, it's another gimmick."

It's applied newly to consoles. Thus making it new for gaming. Thus opening doors for developers on the console environment.

Also Technology means advancement. So technically it IS new tech. A touchscreen allows for non-standard layouts for input. How is this a bad thing?

Did you know that a lot of "new" technology is build on older technology like Infrared? or RFID transmitters? Simply because it works and is sufficient enough.
The point is not to dismiss old technology, but to implement, introduce to platforms or improve them so you can progress with technology.