Analysts question Activision acceleration

Today, Activision reported that Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock enjoyed $115 million in first-week sales in North America. The number was an upward revision from the $100 million seven-day figure Activision announced yesterday, which itself led to the company to revise its holiday quarter earning's forecast up to $1.05 billion and full-year guidance to $2.07 billion.

With the publisher already counting its chickens, industry watchers today weighed in on whether Activision can carry its stellar Q2 momentum through the last half of the fiscal year and in to fiscal 2009. Believing Activision to be playing conservative, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter sees growth of $1.06 million for the October-December months, and a full year haul of $2.11 billion.

However, with the market more interested in growth than dollars-in-hand, Pachter believes Activision's current fortunes may spell ill tidings for next year. "We think that the company has the potential to grow publishing revenues above the level we expect in FY:08, but acknowledge that the success of its lineup this holiday creates a formidable hurdle to revenue growth," he surmised.