Kotaku believes the 40gb Ps3 sku has been 99.8% confirmed:
"I've heard from multiple sources today, both from retailers (EB Games, JB Hi-Fi) and customers (cheers Musky!), that the 40GB PS3 is on its way to Australia on October 11, and will retail for AUD$699. When asked for comment, Sony would only offer:
We don't provide comment in relation to rumours or speculation such as this.
Which would be fine, were it not for the fact retailers across the country are already telling anyone and everyone walking in off the street about the thing. I'd say this puppy's as good as confirmed."