Sony lets its Blu-ray numbers slip show at CEDIA Expo 2007.
At the expo, Sony presented a series of slides and charts, including the one to the right (and bottom -- click to enlarge.) Sony intended to use the viewgraph to show off Blu-ray's sale superiority over HD DVD's. However, the viewgraph inadvertently reveals a trend that is particularly interesting. Pay attention to the viewgraph, and follow closely the blue and red lines. What do you see?
Sales for both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs have been on a declining trend since December -- just one month after PlayStation 3 launched. Both formats are trending downward -- with Blu-ray dropping more sharply than HD DVD.
Now, you can rationalize the decline as the standard post Christmas drop. But is it? The Christmas season is when consumers shop for electronics and big-ticket items, but movie purchases do not exactly fall into the "Christmas list item" category. A lot of people went out and bought PlayStation 3 and standalone HD players for Christmas. However, it seems that after the initial rush wore off, they lost interest in buying new movies for those players.
When you realize that additional Blu-ray players (or more appropriately, PlayStation 3) are continually being sold after Christmas, the dramatic drop in Blu-ray movie sales is even more troubling. As a new format is being adopted, it is supposed to see sales rising, not dropping.
As the viewgraph shows, Blu-ray (or HD DVD) is not winning the format war. Both formats are losing.